1. Gender
Dr. Reena V. Mithal,
Sankhya Capital LLC
Rajasthan Priorities Eminent Panel Presentation June 2018
2. Analysis of education Interventions to address child marriage
• India still accounts for over 40% of global child marriages
•Rajasthan in the bottom quartile of states: 35.4% of women between ages 20-
24 married before age 18
• Continues to have significant impact on social and economic fabric
•Symptom and consequence of social inequalities: correlation with poverty
•Perceived value of girl-child
•Income in adulthood
•Domestic violence
•Sex selection
•Maternal and child mortality
•Intergenerational effects
3. Child Marriage Statistics in Rajasthan
Age at
marriage
% of ever married persons -
Females
INDIA RAJASTHAN
All ages 100 100
Less than
10
2.31 3.78
10-11 1.01 2.64
12-13 2.27 4.71
14-15 8.28 11.89
16-17 16.34 19.61
18-19 30.86 31.25
20-21 18.45 14.65
22-23 7.14 4.19
24-25 4.34 1.88
26-27 1.71 0.61
28-29 0.99 0.32
30-31 0.57 0.16
32-33 0.19 0.05
34 + 0.29 0.09
Age Not
Stated
5.24 4.19
Source: https://data.gov.in/resources/ever-married-and-currently-married-population-age-
marriage-and duration-marriage-2011
4. Economic empowerment of the girl child
1. Bicycle transfers to all eligible secondary school girls age 14 in the first year of
the intervention
5. Bicycle Transfers
• Bicycle Transfers to eligible secondary school girls age 14 in first year
of intervention
•2011 Census provides no. of girls age 14
•NSS 71 survey : 39.2% (age 14-15) girls enrolled in school
•Target: 687,301 girls in Rajasthan based on above
•Implementation over 4 years with same cohort
•Projected beneficiaries calculations based on academic studies with similar
demographics and social structures
•Adjustment of appropriate dropout rates
•Muralidharan and Prakash (2017) study on Bihar as model
6. Three categories of costs
• Actual cost of bicycle
•Rs 3850 per bicycle x 52% of eligible girls enrolled during first year
• Cost of secondary education per additional girl enrolled in school
following the intervention
•Rs 6315 x 12.5% of girls in the state added to cohort of girls in school
• Opportunity Cost of being at school – measured as lost wages
•Rs 7548 annual average wage adjusted for labour force participation and
unemployment = Rs 3731 for Year 1
• Subsequent year costs do not include cost of bicycle
• Total cost of intervention for one cohort over 4 years is Rs. 365 crores
(5% discount rate) – bicycle cost is 38% of total
7. Benefits = Direct benefits + Social benefits
• Direct benefits Rs. 602 crores
•Discounted value of future higher wages from education (62%)
•Cost of bicycle – transfer in kind
•Cost savings of Rs. 792 per girl on alternative form of transportation
•8178 child marriages avoided
• Social benefits = early marriage avoided = Rs. 1043 crores
•Excessive fertility = reduced GDP per capita
•Domestic violence
•Stunting and child health
•Maternal mortality
8. Social Costs of Child Marriage in Rajasthan
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
14 15 16 17
2017INR
Age at Marriage
Social cost of child marriage at different ages
Maternal Mortality - 5%
Domestic Violence - 5%
Excessive Fertility - 5%
Stunting - 5%
9. Bicycle Transfers: total costs,
total benefits and cost-benefit ratios
Discount rate
3% 5% 8%
Benefit 2437 1645 1017
Cost 368 365 360
BCR 6.6 4.5 2.8
10. Economic empowerment of the girl child
2. Conditional cash transfers for secondary school girls
11. Conditional Cash Transfers
• Conditional Cash Transfers to eligible secondary school girls age 14 in
first year of intervention
•2011 Census provides no. of girls age 14
•NSS 71 survey : 39.2% (age 14-15) girls enrolled in school
•Target: 687,301 girls in Rajasthan based on above
•Implementation over 4 years with same cohort
•Cash transfer = 9.3% of average consumption conditional on enrolment
•Projected beneficiaries calculations based on academic studies for Bangladesh,
Cambodia and Pakistan – average 18.9% increase in enrolment
•Adjustment of appropriate dropout rates
•Khandker et al. (2003), Filmer and Shady (2008), Chaudhury and Parajuli (2008)
12. Three categories of costs
• Cost of cash transfer
•Rs 7521 for each girl enrolled in secondary school
• Cost of secondary education per additional girl enrolled in school
following the intervention
•Rs 6315 x number of girls in the state added to cohort of girls in school
• Opportunity Cost of being at school – measured as lost wages
•Rs 7548 annual average wage adjusted for labour force participation and
unemployment
•Subsequent year costs adjusted by levels of incremental enrolment
• Total cost of intervention for one cohort over 4 years is Rs. 951 crores
(5% discount rate)
13. Benefits = Direct benefits + Social benefits
• Direct benefits Rs. 1543 crores
•Discounted value of future higher wages from education
•Cash transfer comprising school subsidy + direct cash transfer
•9620 child marriages avoided
• Social benefits = early marriage avoided = Rs. 1152 crores
•Excessive fertility = reduced GDP per capita
•Domestic violence
•Stunting and child health
•Maternal mortality
14. Conditional Cash Transfers: total costs,
total benefits and cost-benefit ratios
Discount rate
3% 5% 8%
Benefit 3869 2695 1785
Cost 974 951 920
BCR 2.2 2.8 1.2
15. Economic empowerment of the girl child
3. Provision and Maintenance of Girls’ Toilets in Secondary Schools
16. Girls’ Toilets in Secondary Schools
• Provision and Maintenance of Girls’ Toilets in Secondary Schools
•Provision of new toilets for girls in all eligible secondary schools across state
•Maintenance and updating of existing toilets
•Target: 5993 schools based on ASER 2016 State of Education report (21% of
secondary schools)
•Toilets to be constructed and updating of existing toilets before official start
date of intervention
•Ongoing maintenance of toilets to be supervised
•Assume each toilet lasts 20 years – defines number of cohorts of school
attendees
•Aduika (2016) as model based on enrolment increase in upper primary school
across India following girls-only toilet construction
17. Two categories of costs: individual level +toilet construction and
maintenance
• Individual level includes Cost of secondary education per additional
girl enrolled in school following the intervention
•Rs 6315 x number of girls in the state added to cohort of girls in school
• Individual level also includes Opportunity Cost of being at school –
measured as lost wages
•Rs 7548 annual average wage adjusted for labour force participation and
unemployment
•Toilet costs: ASER data for estimated number of toilets by category, costsper
toilet derived from Swacch Bharat Swacch Vidyalaya
• Total 20-year cost of intervention is Rs. 1138 crores (5% discount rate)
– upfront toilet construction and repairing cost is 10% of total
18. Benefits = Direct benefits + Social benefits
• Direct benefits Rs. 2373 crores
•Discounted value of future higher wages from education over 20-year life
of each toilet
•Only 0.5% reduction in child marriage prevalence per year, but 20-year
effect drives absolute impact on child marriages avoided
• Social benefits = early marriage avoided = Rs. 2315 crores
•Excessive fertility = reduced GDP per capita
•Domestic violence
•Stunting and child health
•Maternal mortality
19. Provision and maintenance of girls’ toilets: total costs,
total benefits and cost-benefit ratios
Discount rate
3% 5% 8%
Benefit 8961 4688 2768
Cost 1352 1138 905
BCR 6.62 4.1 3.1
21. Vocational Training
• Vocational Training (tailoring) for 1MM girls age 16 and above
•Target of 1,000,000 girls selected by state government as pilot project
•Intervention to last 18 months
•Consideration of location, income level, family structure, prior and current
education levels in choice of cohort
•Counseling regarding future employment opportunities can be included – job
placement is not guaranteed
•Costs and economic benefits derived from Maitra and Mani (2017)
22. Estimated Costs and Benefits
• Actual cost of training per girl
•Assumed at Rs. 1910 for 18 months
• Benefits:
•Increase in wages assumed at 32%
•Wage premium benefit lasts for 10 years
•Value of benefit for 1MM women targeted is Rs. 3234 crores
•Benefit adjusted by additional Rs. 29 crores due to small effect on child
marriage prevalence for girls below 18
23. Vocational Training: total costs,
total benefits and cost-benefit ratios
Discount rate
3% 5% 8%
Benefit 3655 3263 2784
Cost 677 677 677
BCR 5.4 4.8 4.1
