1.
Gender
Dr. Reena V. Mithal,
Sankhya Capital LLC
Andhra Pradesh Priorities Eminent Panel Presentation 18-20, June 2018.

2.
Analysis of education Interventions to address child marriage
• India still accounts for over 40% of global child marriages
•Andhra Pradesh in the bottom quartile of states: 33% of women between ages
20-24 married before age 18
• Continues to have significant impact on social and economic fabric
•Symptom and consequence of social inequalities: correlation with poverty
•Perceived value of girl-child
•Income in adulthood
•Domestic violence
•Sex selection
•Maternal and child mortality
•Intergenerational effects

3.
Child Marriage Statistics in Andhra Pradesh
Age at
marriage
% of ever married persons -
Females
INDIA Andhra Pradesh
All ages 100 100
Less than 10 2.31 3.23
10-11 1.01 1.67
12-13 2.27 4.22
14-15 8.28 13.77
16-17 6.34 18.19
18-19 0.86 26.12
20-21 8.45 16.4
22-23 7.14 4.91
24-25 4.34 2.88
26-27 1.71 0.95
28-29 0.99 0.52
30-31 0.57 0.33
32-33 0.19 0.09
34 + 0.29 0.24
Age Not Stated 5.24 6.49
Source: https://data.gov.in/resources/ever-married-and-currently-married-population-age-marriage-and
duration-marriage-2011

4.
Economic empowerment of the girl child
1. Bicycle transfers to all eligible secondary school girls age 14 in the first year of
the intervention

5.
Bicycle Transfers
• Bicycle Transfers to eligible secondary school girls age 14 in first year
of intervention
•2011 Census provides no. of girls age 14
•NSS 71 survey : 52.1% (age 14-15) girls enrolled in school
•Target: 455,530 girls in AP based on above
•Implementation over 4 years with same cohort
•Projected beneficiaries calculations based on academic studies with similar
demographics and social structures
•Adjustment of appropriate dropout rates
•Muralidharan and Prakash (2017) study on Bihar as model

6.
Three categories of costs
• Actual cost of bicycle
•Rs 3850 per bicycle x 69% of eligible girls enrolled
• Cost of secondary education per additional girl enrolled in school
following the intervention
•Rs 7895 x 16.7% of girls in the state added to cohort of girls in school
• Opportunity Cost of being at school – measured as lost wages
•Rs 5790 annual average wage adjusted for labour force participation and
unemployment
• Subsequent year costs do not include cost of bicycle
• Total cost of intervention for one cohort over 4 years is Rs. 387 crores
(5% discount rate) – bicycle cost is 31% of total

7.
Benefits = Direct benefits + Social benefits
• Direct benefits Rs. 3514 crores
•Discounted value of future higher wages from education (93%)
•Cost of bicycle – transfer in kind
•Cost savings of Rs. 735 per girl on alternative form of transportation
•8419 child marriages avoided
• Social benefits = early marriage avoided = Rs. 1011 crores
•Excessive fertility = reduced GDP per capita
•Domestic violence
•Stunting and child health
•Maternal mortality

8.
Social Costs of Child Marriage in Andhra Pradesh
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
14 15 16 17
2017INR
Age at Marriage
Social cost of child marriage at different ages
Maternal Mortality - 5%
Domestic Violence - 5%
Excessive Fertility - 5%
Stunting - 5%

9.
Bicycle Transfers: total costs,
total benefits and cost-benefit ratios
Discount rate
3% 5% 8%
Benefit 7469 4525 2410
Cost 392 387 378
BCR 19 11.7 6.4

10.
Economic empowerment of the girl child
2. Conditional cash transfers for secondary school girls

11.
Conditional Cash Transfers
• Conditional Cash Transfers to eligible secondary school girls age 14 in
first year of intervention
•2011 Census provides no. of girls age 14
•NSS 71 survey : 52.1% (age 14-15) girls enrolled in school
•Target: 455,530 girls in AP based on above
•Implementation over 4 years with same cohort
•Cash transfer = 9.3% of average consumption conditional on enrolment
•Projected beneficiaries calculations based on academic studies for Bangladesh,
Cambodia and Pakistan – average 18.9% increase in enrolment
•Adjustment of appropriate dropout rates
•Khandker et al. (2003), Filmer and Shady (2008), Chaudhury and Parajuli (2008)

12.
Three categories of costs
• Cost of cash transfer
•Rs 7472 for all girls enrolled in secondary school each year
• Cost of secondary education per additional girl enrolled in school
following the intervention
•Rs 7895 x number of girls in the state added to cohort of girls in school
• Opportunity Cost of being at school – measured as lost wages
•Rs 5790 annual average wage adjusted for labour force participation and
unemployment
•Subsequent year costs adjusted by levels of incremental enrolment
• Total cost of intervention for one cohort over 4 years is Rs. 1099
crores (5% discount rate)

13.
Benefits = Direct benefits + Social benefits
• Direct benefits Rs. 4504 crores
•Discounted value of future higher wages from education
•Cash transfer comprising school subsidy + direct cash transfer
•10,588 child marriages avoided
• Social benefits = early marriage avoided = Rs. 1210 crores
•Excessive fertility = reduced GDP per capita
•Domestic violence
•Stunting and child health
•Maternal mortality

14.
Conditional Cash Transfers: total costs,
total benefits and cost-benefit ratios
Discount rate
3% 5% 8%
Benefit 9156 5714 3254
Cost 1132 1099 1053
BCR 8.1 5.2 3.1

15.
Economic empowerment of the girl child
3. Provision and Maintenance of Girls’ Toilets in Secondary Schools

16.
Girls’ Toilets in Secondary Schools
• Provision and Maintenance of Girls’ Toilets in Secondary Schools
•Provision of new toilets for girls in all eligible secondary schools across state
•Maintenance and updating of existing toilets
•Target: 4183 schools based on ASER 2016 State of Education report (30% of
secondary schools)
•Toilets to be constructed and updating of existing toilets before official start
date of intervention
•Ongoing maintenance of toilets to be supervised
•Assume each toilet lasts 20 years – defines number of cohorts of school
attendees
•Aduika (2016) as model based on enrolment increase in upper primary school
across India following girls-only toilet construction

17.
Two categories of costs: individual level +toilet construction and
maintenance
• Individual level includes Cost of secondary education per additional
girl enrolled in school following the intervention
•Rs 7895 x number of girls in the state added to cohort of girls in school
• Individual level also includes Opportunity Cost of being at school –
measured as lost wages
•Rs 5790 annual average wage adjusted for labour force participation and
unemployment = Rs 4929 for Year 1
• Toilet costs: ASER data for estimated number of toilets by category,
costsper toilet derived from Swacch Bharat Swacch Vidyalaya
• Total 20-year cost of intervention is Rs. 1621 crores (5% discount rate)
– toilet construction and repairing cost is 8% of total

18.
Benefits = Direct benefits + Social benefits
• Direct benefits Rs. 15,736 crores
•Discounted value of future higher wages from education over 20-year
life of each toilet
•Only 1.3% reduction in child marriage prevalence per year, but 20-year
effect drives absolute impact on child marriages avoided
• Social benefits = early marriage avoided = Rs. 3558 crores
•Excessive fertility = reduced GDP per capita
•Domestic violence
•Stunting and child health
•Maternal mortality

19.
Provision and maintenance of girls’ toilets: total costs,
total benefits and cost-benefit ratios
Discount rate
3% 5% 8%
Benefit 39,182 19,294 7638
Cost 1952 1621 1265
BCR 20.1 11.9 6.0

20.
Economic empowerment of the girl child
4. Vocational Training (Tailoring example)

21.
Vocational Training
• Vocational Training (tailoring) for 1MM girls age 16 and above
•Target of 1,000,000 girls selected by state government as pilot project
•Intervention to last 18 months
•Consideration of location, income level, family structure, prior and current
education levels in choice of cohort
•Counseling regarding future employment opportunities can be included – job
placement is not guaranteed
•Costs and economic benefits derived from Maitra and Mani (2017)

22.
Estimated Costs and Benefits
• Actual cost of training per girl
•Assumed at Rs. 1910 for 18 months
• Benefits:
•Increase in wages assumed at 32%
•Wage premium benefit lasts for 10 years
•Value of benefit for 1MM women targeted is Rs. 2245 crores
•Benefit adjusted by additional Rs. 26 crores due to small effect on child
marriage prevalence for girls below 18

23.
Vocational Training: total costs, total benefits and cost-benefit ratios
Discount rate
3% 5% 8%
Benefit 2552 2272 1934
Cost 521 521 521
BCR 4.9 4.4 3.7