Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
The Population Trends That Are       Reshaping Michigan                    Reynolds Farley              Population Studies...
Michigan’s Slow Population Growth        in Recent Decades                Low Fertility  Net loss of population in excha...
FIGURE 1. Percent Change by Decade for Michigan’s Population and            for the Nation’s Population, 1860 to 201060%50...
FIGURE 2. Michigan’s Share of the Nation’s Total Population, 1850 to 20105%                                               ...
FIGURE 3. Number of Congressional Seats Apportioned to Michigan          after Each Census, 1850 to 2010                  ...
MAP 1. Percent Change in Population of Michigan Counties, 2000 to 2011                            Keweenaw                ...
FIGURE 4. Population Change in Michigan Metropolitan Areas, 2000 to 2010        Holland-Grand Haven                       ...
TABLE 1. State Births Per 1,000 Women Ages 15 to 44 in 2010         State                      Births per 1,000 Women     ...
TABLE 2. State Age-Adjusted Death Rates Per 100,000 in 2009                                                 Deaths per    ...
FIGURE 5. Natural Increase (Births minus Deaths) and Net Internal Migration,          Annual Estimates, 1980 to 2010      ...
FIGURE 6. Median Age of the Population of “Oldest” States, Northwest Territory or          Big Ten States, and “Youngest” ...
MAP 2. Percent Age 65 and Over in the Counties of Michigan and in       Comparison to the Nation, Census 2010             ...
MAP 3. Natural Decrease Counties in Michigan―Counties with More          Deaths than Births, July 2010 to June 2011       ...
FIGURE 7. Michigan’s Population by Age in 2009 and Projected Population in 2030          (in Thousands)            85+    ...
FIGURE 7. Number of Jobs Each Month from January 2000 to March 2011          in Michigan and the Rest of the United States...
FIGURE 8. Employment Change by Industry in Michigan and Rest of the United States,          2000 to 2010, and Percent of E...
FIGURE 9. Economic Status of Persons Living in Michigan and Elsewhere in the          United States: Per Capita Income for...
FIGURE 10. Job Growth Rates for States from January 2011 to April 2012           (Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Surve...
FIGURE 8. Index of Labor Productivity in Manufacturing for the Nation, 1990 to 2011:        Number of Workers Needed in Ye...
FIGURE 9. Population of Michigan Age 65 and Over, 1990 to 2030           2,200           2,000           1,800MILLIONS    ...
FIGURE 10. Percent Change in Employment in Michigan Metropolitan Areas, the         Remainder of Michigan, and the Rest of...
FIGURE 11. Per Capita Income, 2000 to 2010, for Persons Aged 21 and Percent Change           in Constant Dollar Per Capita...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

The Population Trends that are Reshaping Michigan

3,613 views

Published on

Published in: Education, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

The Population Trends that are Reshaping Michigan

  1. 1. The Population Trends That Are Reshaping Michigan Reynolds Farley Population Studies Center Institute for Social Research University of Michigan renf@umich.edu Observations prepared for a conference organized by:GOVERNING and the American Association of Retired Persons Lansing, Michigan June 6, 2012
  2. 2. Michigan’s Slow Population Growth in Recent Decades Low Fertility  Net loss of population in exchange with other states  Relatively few immigrants from abroad  Michigan loses the economic stimulus of population growth  Michigan loses political influence
  3. 3. FIGURE 1. Percent Change by Decade for Michigan’s Population and for the Nation’s Population, 1860 to 201060%50%40%30%20%10%0% 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Michigan Rest of the USA
  4. 4. FIGURE 2. Michigan’s Share of the Nation’s Total Population, 1850 to 20105% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0%4% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.0% 3.1%3% 2.8% 2.0%2%1%0% 60 80 90 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 50 70 00 10 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 2018 18 19 19
  5. 5. FIGURE 3. Number of Congressional Seats Apportioned to Michigan after Each Census, 1850 to 2010 20 19 19 NUMBER OF CONGRESSIONAL SEATS 18 18 18 17 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 4 4 2 0 50 60 80 90 10 30 40 70 90 70 00 20 50 60 80 00 10 18 18 18 19 19 19 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20
  6. 6. MAP 1. Percent Change in Population of Michigan Counties, 2000 to 2011 Keweenaw Keweenaw Houghton Houghton Baraga Ontonagon Marquette Luce Gogebic Alger Chippewa Iron Schoolcraft Mackinac Dickinson Chippewa Delta Menominee Emmet Cheboygan Presque Isle Charlevoix Montmorency Antrim Otsego Alpena Leelanau Benzie Kalkaska Crawford Oscoda Alcona Grand Traverse Legend Ogemaw Iosco Manistee Wexford Missaukee Roscommon -2.6% and Below (Population Decline) Arenac Mason Lake Osceola Clare Gladwin Huron 0% to -2.5% (Very Slow Loss) Bay Oceana Mecosta Isabella Midland Newaygo 1% to 2.5% (Very Slow Growth) Tuscola Sanilac Montcalm Saginaw Muskegon Gratiot 2.6% to 11.0% (Moderate Grow th) Lapeer Kent Genesee St. Clair Ottawa Ionia ClintonShiawassee Over 11% (Grew Faster than the Nation) Oakland Macomb Allegan Barry Eaton Ingham Livingston Van Buren Kalamazoo Calhoun Jackson Washtenaw Wayne Berrien Cass St. Joseph Branch Hillsdale Lenawee Monroe
  7. 7. FIGURE 4. Population Change in Michigan Metropolitan Areas, 2000 to 2010 Holland-Grand Haven 10.7% Ann Arbor 6.8% Grand Rapids 4.5% Monroe 4.2% Kalamazoo 3.7% Lansing 3.6% Jackson 1.2% Battle Creek -1.3% Bay City -2.2% Flint -2.4% Niles-Benton Harbor -3.5% Detroit -3.5% Saginaw -4.7% Non-metropolitan Michigan 0.4% United States, Except Michigan 10.1% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
  8. 8. TABLE 1. State Births Per 1,000 Women Ages 15 to 44 in 2010 State Births per 1,000 Women States with Highest Birth Rates Utah 92 Alaska 83 Montana 82 Mississippi 81 Nevada 80 Big Ten/Northwest Territory States Iowa 74 Total United States 72 Illinois 69 Wisconsin 67 Minnesota 67 Ohio 66 Indiana 65 Michigan 67 States with the Lowest Birth Rates Massachusetts 57 West Virginia 57 Delaware 56 District of Columbia 56 Vermont 51
  9. 9. TABLE 2. State Age-Adjusted Death Rates Per 100,000 in 2009 Deaths per State 100,000 States with Lowest Death Rates Hawaii 620 Minnesota 652 California 652 Arizona 653 New York 666 Big Ten/Northwest Territory States Wisconsin 709 Iowa 725 Total United States 741 Illinois 743 Michigan 786 Ohio 814 Indiana 816 States with Highest Death Rates Louisiana 888 Kentucky 898 Alabama 920 Mississippi 926 West Virginia 902
  10. 10. FIGURE 5. Natural Increase (Births minus Deaths) and Net Internal Migration, Annual Estimates, 1980 to 2010 100 Natural Increase 75 (Population Gain) 50 25 0 THOUSANDS -25 -50 Net Internal Migration -75 (Population Loss) -100 -125 -150 -175198019831984198519861989199119921994199519971998200020022003200620072008200919811982198719881990199319962099200120042005 1019
  11. 11. FIGURE 6. Median Age of the Population of “Oldest” States, Northwest Territory or Big Ten States, and “Youngest” States, Census 2010 OLDEST STATES M aine 42.7 Vermont 41.5 West Virginia 41.3 New Hampshire 41.1 Florida 40.7 NORTHWEST TERRITORY OR BIG TEN STATES Pennsylvania 40.1 M ichigan 38.9 Ohio 38.8 Wisconsin 38.5 Iowa 38.1 Minnesota 37.4 Total United States 37.2 Indiana 37 Illinois 36.6 YOUNGEST STATES Idaho 34.6 District of Columbia 33.8 Alaska 33.8 Texas 33.6 Utah 29.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 AGE IN YEARS
  12. 12. MAP 2. Percent Age 65 and Over in the Counties of Michigan and in Comparison to the Nation, Census 2010 Keweenaw Keweenaw Houghton Houghton Ontonagon Baraga Marquette Luce Gogebic Alger Chippewa Iron Schoolcraft Mackinac Dickinson Chippewa Delta Menominee Emmet Cheboygan Presque Isle Charlevoix Montmorency Antrim Otsego Alpena Legend Leelanau Benzie Kalkaska Crawford Oscoda Alcona Michigan_Counties Grand Traverse Manistee Wexford Missaukee Ogemaw Iosco Age 65 and Over.AGE_65_PLU Roscommon Arenac Less than 12% (Younger) Mason Lake Osceola Clare Gladwin Huron Bay 13.9% to 12.1% (Close to National Average) Oceana Mecosta Isabella Midland Newaygo Tuscola Sanilac Montcalm 14.0% to 17.0% (Somewhat Older) Muskegon Gratiot Saginaw Lapeer 17.1% to 23.9% (Older) Ottawa Kent Ionia Genesee ClintonShiawassee St. Clair Over 24% (Much Older) Oakland Macomb Allegan Barry Eaton Ingham Livingston Van Buren Kalamazoo Calhoun Jackson Washtenaw Wayne Berrien Cass St. Joseph Branch Hillsdale Lenawee Monroe
  13. 13. MAP 3. Natural Decrease Counties in Michigan―Counties with More Deaths than Births, July 2010 to June 2011 Keweenaw Keweenaw Houghton Houghton Ontonagon Baraga Marquette Luce Gogebic Alger Chippewa Iron Schoolcraft Mackinac Dickinson Chippewa Delta Menominee Emmet Cheboygan Presque Isle Charlevoix Montmorency Antrim Otsego Alpena Leelanau Benzie Kalkaska Crawford Oscoda Alcona Grand Traverse Manistee Wexford Missaukee Ogemaw Iosco Roscommon Arenac Mason Lake Osceola Clare Gladwin Huron Bay Oceana Mecosta Isabella Midland Newaygo Tuscola Sanilac Montcalm Saginaw Muskegon GratiotCounties shown in red report more Ottawa Kent Ionia Genesee ClintonShiawassee Lapeer St. Clairdeaths than births. Oakland Macomb Allegan Barry Eaton Ingham Livingston Van Buren Kalamazoo Calhoun Jackson Washtenaw Wayne Berrien Cass St. Joseph Branch Hillsdale Lenawee Monroe
  14. 14. FIGURE 7. Michigan’s Population by Age in 2009 and Projected Population in 2030 (in Thousands) 85+ Michigan, 2009 Michigan, 2030 80-84 Total Population: 9,996,000 Total Population: 10,692,000 75-79 Median Age: 37.6 years Median Age: 40.2 years 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 POPULATION (000)
  15. 15. FIGURE 7. Number of Jobs Each Month from January 2000 to March 2011 in Michigan and the Rest of the United States (in thousands) 140,000 Total United States, Except Michigan NUMBER OF JOBS (000) 135,000 130,000 125,000 120,000 115,000 110,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4,800 Michigan NUMBER OF JOBS (000) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  16. 16. FIGURE 8. Employment Change by Industry in Michigan and Rest of the United States, 2000 to 2010, and Percent of Employment in Major Industrial Sectors, 2010 RETAIL TRADE 18.7% Michigan -4.7% Rest of U.S. 13.8% 27.7% DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING 12.7% -37.1% 6.5% -21.6% MEDICAL AND HEALTH SERVICES 11.9% Michigan 19.0% 10.6% Rest of U.S. 30.6% PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND MANAGEMENT SERVICES 9.9% -4.6% 11.3% 14.8% ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION 5.9% -11.4% 6.2% 11.7% FINANCE, INSURANCE AND REAL ESTATE 0.0% 5.7% 5.6% 6.4% CONSTRUCTION 4.7% -30.5% 6.2% -0.7% REPAIR AND PERSONAL SERVICES 4.2% 11.8% 4.7% -4.7% PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 4.0% -0.2% 5.2% 16.4% POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION 4.0% 26.0% 3.5% 29.8% NON-DURABLE MANUFACTURING 3.7% -29.3% 4.1% -20.4% TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING 3.3% -15.8% 4.2% -0.1% SOCIAL SERVICES 13.6% 3.0% 3.0% 38.0% TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 100% -10.8% 100% 7.7% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
  17. 17. FIGURE 9. Economic Status of Persons Living in Michigan and Elsewhere in the United States: Per Capita Income for Residents 21 and Over, Median Household Income and Poverty Rate, 1950 to 2008 MICHIGAN ELSEWHERE IN UNITED STATES 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 1980 1980 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% $15,358 $32,338 $34,574 $35,084 $13,982 $28,851 $34,750 $38,370PER CAPITA INCOME $23,273 $33,555 $40,333 $21,186 $30,846 $39,099 COMFORTABLE MIDDLE CLASS NEAR POOR IMPOVERISHED (Incomes 500% or more (Incomes 300% to 499% (Incomes 100% to 199% (Incomes below of the poverty line) of the poverty line) of the poverty line) the poverty line)
  18. 18. FIGURE 10. Job Growth Rates for States from January 2011 to April 2012 (Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Survey of Employers) STATES WITH HIGHEST RATES OF NEW JOB GROWTH Utah 3.2% Oklahoma 3.0% Louisiana 3.0% Texas 2.9% North Dakota 0.1% NORTHWEST TERRITORY OR TRADITIONAL BIG TEN STATES Indiana 2.2% Michigan 1.8% Minnesota 1.5% Ohio 1.4% Iowa 1.4% Total United State 1.4% Illinois 0.8% STATES WITH NO NET JOB GROWTH OR A LOSS OF JOBS Mississippi 0.0% Maine 0.0% Rhode Island -0.2% New Hampshite -0.2% Wisconsin -0.4% -1% -1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4%
  19. 19. FIGURE 8. Index of Labor Productivity in Manufacturing for the Nation, 1990 to 2011: Number of Workers Needed in Years Past to Achieve Output of 100 Workers in 2011 240 220 NUMBER OF WORKERS 200 180 160 140 120 100 94 95 98 03 06 07 90 91 99 02 11 92 00 04 09 3 96 97 01 05 08 10 9 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 19 20
  20. 20. FIGURE 9. Population of Michigan Age 65 and Over, 1990 to 2030 2,200 2,000 1,800MILLIONS 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 94 00 06 12 18 24 28 30 96 02 04 10 0 92 98 08 14 16 20 22 26 9 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 20 20 20
  21. 21. FIGURE 10. Percent Change in Employment in Michigan Metropolitan Areas, the Remainder of Michigan, and the Rest of the United States, 2000 to 2010 Ann Arbor 1.9% Benton Harbor -11.9% Detroit -10.6% Flint -23.8% Grand Rapids-Muskegon -1.8% Jackson -7.9% Kalamazoo-Battle Creek -7.9% Lansing-East Lansing -6.3% Saginaw-Bay City-Midland -11.0% Remainder of Michigan -7.2% Total State of Michigan -10.8% Remainder of United States 9.1% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
  22. 22. FIGURE 11. Per Capita Income, 2000 to 2010, for Persons Aged 21 and Percent Change in Constant Dollar Per Capita Income, 2000 to 2010, for Most Prosperous States, Big Ten States, and Least Prosperous States Percent Change MOST PROSPEROUS STATES in Decade District of Columbia $55,973 4.7% Connecticut $51,205 -8.9% New Jersey $48,163 -6.4% Maryland $47,483 -2.3% Massachusetts $46,393 -4.6% NORTHWEST TERRITORY OR "BIG TEN" STATES Minnesota $39,490 -7.5% Illinois $37,829 -11.3% Pennsylvania $35,283 -5.9% Wisconsin $34,852 -11.0% Iowa $33,882 -5.6% Ohio $32,821 -14.4% Michigan $32,509 -20.6% Indiana $31,882 -15.6% LEAST PROSPEROUS STATES Idaho $30,161 -12.4% Kentucky $29,426 -10.0% Arkansas $28,474 --8.3% West Virginia $27,569 -5.3% Mississippi $26,842 -10.8% Total United States $35,832 -15.6% $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000

×