Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen
Paul Scherrer Institut
Peter Burgherr (PSI) & Jennifer Giroux (ETHZ)
Accidents in t...
Content
• Comparative Risk Assessment in the Energy Sector
 Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) [PSI]
• NaTec...
Comparative Risk Assessment in the Energy Sector

CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy

Burgherr & Giroux: Acciden...
Background
• Comparative assessment of accident risks is a central aspect in a
comprehensive evaluation of the performance...
Overview of Accidents in the Energy Sector
Coal mine explosion

Deepwater Horizon (USA)

Fire/explosion at LNG
facility (A...
Approach for Comparative Risk Assessment
• Full energy chains because accidents can
occur at all stages

Burgherr et al. 2...
Severe Accident Definition and Consequence Indicators
Risk
description

Impact Category

ENSAD severity
threshold

Consequ...
Historical Development of ENSAD

Burgherr et al. 2013
CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy

Burgherr & Giroux: Acc...
Geographic Distribution of Severe Accidents (1970-2008)

Nigeria

Burgherr et al., 2010

• Top 10 countries accounted for ...
Fatality Rates & Maximum Consequences (1970-2008)

Burgherr et al. 2013
CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy

Burg...
NaTech Accidents affecting Energy Infrastructures

CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy

Burgherr & Giroux: Accide...
NaTech Accidents Background
What are NaTech accidents?
 Accidents triggered by natural hazard
(Showalter & Myers, 1994; S...
NaTech Accidents in ENSAD
• 398 NaTech accidents in ENSAD (1970-2008), mostly fossil energy chains.
• In the coal chain ou...
Intentional Attacks on Energy Infrastructures

CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy

Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents ...
Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD)
• Focus on violent non-state actors (VNSA)
• Covers all forms of non-state vi...
Summary of EIAD Content
•

Currently EIAD contains 8602 records for the
years 1980-2011.

•

Significant increase over tim...
EI attacks by attack type
•

80.4% of attacks were carried out with some
type of bombing device.

•

Several other attack ...
Spatial distribution of EI Attacks by Country

Burgherr & Giroux 2013

•

Top 3 countries are Colombia (1381 EI attacks), ...
Temporal Patterns in Top 3 Countries

Burgherr & Giroux 2013

CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy

Burgherr & Gir...
Burgherr & Giroux 2013

Comparison EI Attacks and Accidents

•

Country-specific patterns for severe (≥5 fatalities) and s...
Terrorism Risk for Energy Installations

CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy

Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and In...
Terrorist Threat Analysis (EU Project SECURE)

• First-of-its-kind analyses of terrorist threat by
means of scenario quant...
Conclusions
•
•
•

Evaluations are based on quantitative data from the databases ENSAD and EIAD.

•

The severity distribu...
Thank you for your attention!

Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis
http://www.psi.ch/gabe
peter.burgherr@psi.ch
CP Expo...
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Accidents in the Energy Sector and Energy Infrastructure Attacks in the context of Energy Security

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by Peter Burgherr (PSI) & Jennifer Giroux (ETHZ)

PSI - Paul Scherrer Institut
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis

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Accidents in the Energy Sector and Energy Infrastructure Attacks in the context of Energy Security

  1. 1. Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen Paul Scherrer Institut Peter Burgherr (PSI) & Jennifer Giroux (ETHZ) Accidents in the energy sector and energy infrastructure attacks in the context of energy security CP Expo 2013 29 – 31 October 2013 CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy
  2. 2. Content • Comparative Risk Assessment in the Energy Sector  Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) [PSI] • NaTech Accidents affecting Energy Infrastructures  ENSAD [PSI] • Intentional Attacks on Energy Infrastructures  Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD) [ETHZ-CSS / PSI] • Terrorism Risk for Energy Installations  Probabilistic tool for site-specific assessment [PSI] • Conclusions CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  3. 3. Comparative Risk Assessment in the Energy Sector CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  4. 4. Background • Comparative assessment of accident risks is a central aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of energy technologies (Fritzsche 1989; Inhaber 2004; Rasmussen 1981) • In the past 40 years catastrophic accidents affected the entire energy-related business and industry (Sutton, 2012) • Society is often risk averse towards low-probability high-consequence events, but at the same time a lack of urgency can be observed among the public and decision makers (Garrick, 2008) • No adequate treatment of energy accidents in terms of completeness and data quality (Fritsche, 1992) To close this gap, the PSI initiated in the early 1990s a long-term research activity, at the core of which is the ENergy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  5. 5. Overview of Accidents in the Energy Sector Coal mine explosion Deepwater Horizon (USA) Fire/explosion at LNG facility (Algeria) LPG explosion Refinery fire/explosion Dam failure Prestige, Galicia (Spain) Biodiesel plant explosion Lightning struck oil storage tank Explosion of tapped gasoline pipeline, Nigeria Gas pipeline explosion Silane explosion In PV plant Induced seismicity at geothermal well Wind turbine collapse Kocaeli earthquake (Tur), fire at refinery CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  6. 6. Approach for Comparative Risk Assessment • Full energy chains because accidents can occur at all stages Burgherr et al. 2013 • Evaluation period: ENSAD contains accident data for more than four decades  1970–2008 (2012/13) CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy • Data normalization to ensure comparison across different energy chains  GWeyr • Regional aggregation at different spatial scales  individual countries, country groups (OECD, EU, non-OECD, globally) Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  7. 7. Severe Accident Definition and Consequence Indicators Risk description Impact Category ENSAD severity threshold Consequence indicator Human health Fatalities Injuries ≥5 ≥ 10 Fatalities per GWeyr Injured per GWeyr Societal Evacuees Food consumption ban ≥ 200 yes Evacuees per GWeyr Nominal scale Environmental Release of hydrocarbons Land/water contamination ≥ 10’000 t ≥ 25 km2 Tonne per GWeyr km2 per GWeyr Economic ≥ 5 Mio USD (2000) USD per GWeyr Economic loss CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  8. 8. Historical Development of ENSAD Burgherr et al. 2013 CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  9. 9. Geographic Distribution of Severe Accidents (1970-2008) Nigeria Burgherr et al., 2010 • Top 10 countries accounted for 83% of all fatalities; countries with 100 to 1000 cumulated fatalities contributed another 15.1%, and remaining countries summed up to only 1.9%. • China: 53343 fatalities; 25772 in coal mine accidents (mostly Shanxi, Henan, Guizhou, Heilongjiang and Hunan); 26000 in Banqiao/Shimantan dam failure (Henan). • Nigeria: oil chain accounts for over 98% of fatalities; Delta, Lagos, Rivers, Osun and Abia states. • USA: most fatalities in the Gulf of Mexico area (e.g. LA, TX), where O&G activities are concentrated. CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  10. 10. Fatality Rates & Maximum Consequences (1970-2008) Burgherr et al. 2013 CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  11. 11. NaTech Accidents affecting Energy Infrastructures CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  12. 12. NaTech Accidents Background What are NaTech accidents?  Accidents triggered by natural hazard (Showalter & Myers, 1994; Steinberg & Cruz, 2004; Krausmann et al., 2011) Why look at NaTech accidents?  Risk of such accidents is expected to increase in the future due to - growing industrialization - change of natural hazard occurrence patterns by climate change - increasing vulnerability of the society (Girgin & Krausmann, 2013) How can NaTech accidents be analyzed?  Qualitative risk screening (Cruz & Okada, 2008)  Index method ranking natech hazards (Sabatini et al., 2008)  Qualitative screening using Multi-Criteria Decision Model (Busini et al., 2011)  Quantitative assessment (Antonioni et al., 2007)  ENSAD CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  13. 13. NaTech Accidents in ENSAD • 398 NaTech accidents in ENSAD (1970-2008), mostly fossil energy chains. • In the coal chain out of 95 accidents 83 occurred in China, and of these 69 were severe(≥5 fatalities) • In the oil and natural gas chains 246 and 37 Natech accidents were recorded, with most of them located in the USA (115 and 24). • Flooding, windstorm and lightning were the most common triggering events, followed by earthquake and landslide. • Highest frequencies in Coal China. • OECD countries exhibit lower frequencies and smaller maximum consequences than non-OECD. • However, currently available ENSAD data are rather limited. • Key research focus in currently ongoing database update. Burgherr et al. 2013 CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  14. 14. Intentional Attacks on Energy Infrastructures CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  15. 15. Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD) • Focus on violent non-state actors (VNSA) • Covers all forms of non-state violence aimed at energy infrastructure - all human (energy sector personnel) - physical (energy sector physical assets) - information (energy sector cyber systems supporting operations) • EIAD does not code for motivation but rather for - attack type (e.g., assassination, assault, bombing, etc.) - instrument used (e.g., firearms, explosive-dynamite, arson/firebombing, etc.). • All information in EIAD is from open-source information sources • EIAD incident record structure: - Unique ID - Date (including extended incidents such as hijacking and kidnappings) - Location (desriptive and geo-coded information) - Information (summary, event type, and whether event was part of a multiple attack) - Attack Information (attack type, instruments used, combination attack, second attack type) - Target Information (specific target, energy sector, energy infrastructure, second target) - Perpetrator Information (individual/group, group type) - Incident Consequences (casualties and fatalities, reported downtime, infrastructure impact, hostage information) - Additional Information - Source Information (media reports, social media, cross-reference to other databases, etc.) CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  16. 16. Summary of EIAD Content • Currently EIAD contains 8602 records for the years 1980-2011. • Significant increase over time. • Vast majority of attacks classified as successful (8211) • Most attacks directed to “linear” targets that are difficult to protect (50% electricity transmission lines and substations, oil pipelines (15%), oil transports by road tanker and natural gas pipelines (each 7%). • Almost 40% (3413) of EI attacks were considered multiple attacks. Multiplicity within a specific country points to the power of ‘tactical contagion’ and the ‘criminal microcycles’ within certain contexts, contributing to the development of spatio-temporal “waves” or hotspots. CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux 2013 Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  17. 17. EI attacks by attack type • 80.4% of attacks were carried out with some type of bombing device. • Several other attack types with more than 100 events cumulatively amount to 15.0%. • Notable that also 4.1% could not be assigned due to incomplete information. Burgherr & Giroux 2013 CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  18. 18. Spatial distribution of EI Attacks by Country Burgherr & Giroux 2013 • Top 3 countries are Colombia (1381 EI attacks), Iraq (1085) and Pakistan (1009), totaling 49.7%. • More than 200 attacks: El Salvador, Peru, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Chile (25.7%). • More than 100 attacks: India, Angola, Philippines, Thailand, Russia (11.8%). • More than 50 attacks: Spain, Turkey, Yemen, Guatemala (3.8). • Remaining 69 countries 8.9%; roughly two thirds of them 0.1% or less. CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  19. 19. Temporal Patterns in Top 3 Countries Burgherr & Giroux 2013 CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  20. 20. Burgherr & Giroux 2013 Comparison EI Attacks and Accidents • Country-specific patterns for severe (≥5 fatalities) and smaller (1-4 fatalities) accidents and EI attacks. • Maximum consequences of accidental events are generally higher than for EI attacks. • Caution: in the case of Nigeria and Pakistan EIAD data might not be complete for EI attacks  ongoing updates. CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  21. 21. Terrorism Risk for Energy Installations CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  22. 22. Terrorist Threat Analysis (EU Project SECURE) • First-of-its-kind analyses of terrorist threat by means of scenario quantification for selected energy infrastructure. • In spite of large uncertainties the analysis indicates that the frequency of a successful terrorist attack with very large consequences is of the same order of magnitude as can be expected for a disastrous accident in the respective energy chain. • This is primarily due to the fact that centralized large energy installations are hard targets and relatively easy to protect, requiring sophisticated attack scenarios to cause significant damage and lasting impacts. CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy 1.E+02 1.E+01 1.E+00 1.E-01 1.E-02 1.E-03 1.E-04 1.E-05 1.E-06 China USA Europe EPR LMR HTR (Gen III) (Gen IV) (Gen IV) Dam Refinery LNG Nuclear Hydro Oil Gas Eckle et al., 2011 Risk per installation per year Risk of fatalities through terrorism total Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  23. 23. Conclusions • • • Evaluations are based on quantitative data from the databases ENSAD and EIAD. • The severity distribution for accidents generally exhibits a fat-tail, with lowprobability high-consequence events being an important factor of energy chain performance. • For intentional attacks severe consequences are less an issue because energy infrastructures are often targeted in remote areas and difficult to protect (e.g. pipelines and transmission lines), but when frequently attacked can result in substantial business and supply disruptions. • The joint analysis of accidents and intentional attacks provides a comprehensive and complementary approach on two types of risks that have rather different properties, but are essential in a holistic energy security perspective. Accidents are typically rare and independent events. Intentional attacks are often multiple events and concentrated both in time and space, resulting in distinct hotspots. CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector
  24. 24. Thank you for your attention! Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis http://www.psi.ch/gabe peter.burgherr@psi.ch CP Expo, 29 – 31 October 2013, Genova, Italy Burgherr & Giroux: Accidents and Intentional Attacks in the Energy Sector

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