Benedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation

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Benedict Evans, consultant with media and technology analyst firm Enders Analysis, talks about the fundamental shift in internet use to mobile and tablets and the ways in which that disrupts publishers.

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Benedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation

  1. 1. MOBILE IS EATINGTHE WORLD October 2013 Benedict Evans @benedictevans
  2. 2. 0 50 100 150 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global annual unit sales (m) Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets The state of PCs Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis2
  3. 3. 0 200 400 600 800 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global annual unit sales (m) Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets Smart phones Smart phones are exploding 3 Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  4. 4. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global annual unit sales (m) Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets Smart phones All mobile phones 4 More mobile growth coming Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  5. 5. 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013e Global annual unit sales (m) PCs Smartphones and tablets Source: Enders Analysis5 The future is mobile
  6. 6. The world in 2017 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Population Adults Literate adults Mobile Smart phones PCs Tablets 2017 forecast base (m) 2012 Growth to 2017 Source: GSMA,World Bank, Enders Analysis6
  7. 7. • Mobile was always much bigger than tech, but always separate • Smartphones mean theTechnology and Mobile worlds merge • Internet and Media are being dragged along • Tablets accelerate the change • This is changing everything Fundamental change 7
  8. 8. Fundamental change in scale PC industry • 350m PCs sold in 2012 • 1.6bn units in use • Replaced every 4-5 years • Shared Mobile industry • 1.7bn phones sold in 2012 • 3.2bn mobile users • Replaced every 2 years • One per person 8
  9. 9. Fundamental change in use PC internet • Shared, or used at work • Semi-portable at best • Web and web search Mobile internet • Personal • Taken everywhere • Web, web search, apps, social, location, service integration, prediction,APIs, image recognition, NFC... 9
  10. 10. 0 25 50 75 100 Mar-2009 Sep-2009 Mar-2010 Sep-2010 Mar-2011 Sep-2011 Mar-2012 Sep-2012 Mar-2013 Microsoft share of connected device unit sales (%) Source: Enders Analysis10 The irrelevance of Microsoft
  11. 11. 0 10 20 30 40 Mar-2009 Sep-2009 Mar-2010 Sep-2010 Mar-2011 Sep-2011 Mar-2012 Sep-2012 Mar-2013 Share of smarpthone unit sales (%) Source: Enders Analysis11 Blackberry Windows Phone The end of Nokia and Blackberry
  12. 12. 0 25 50 75 100 Units Revenue Global handset industry share, Q2 2013 (%) Apple Samsung All other Source:Apple, Samsung, Enders Analysis12 Dominance of Apple & Samsung
  13. 13. Industry scale Mobile networks Advertising Mobile phones PCs Apple Books Online advertising iPhone Amazon Google Recorded music Facebook 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 2012 global revenue ($bn) Source: Zenith,Apple,Amazon, Google (excludes Motorola Mobility), Facebook, Enders Analysis13
  14. 14. 0 15 30 45 60 Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012 Jun-2013 Global unit sales (m) Consumer Corporate Tablets Tablets overtaking PCs 14 Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  15. 15. 0 15 30 45 60 Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012 Jun-2013 Global unit sales (m) iPad Android (activated) Nexus Android (unactivated) 120m tablets in 2012 - 66m iPads Source:Apple, Google,Asus, Enders Analysis15
  16. 16. iPad dominates use everywhere 0 20 40 60 80 100 US UK Germany France Japan China Share of tablet web traffic, February 2013 (%) iPad Android Kindle Fire Nook Source:Adobe16
  17. 17. • Well over 200m tablets will be sold in 2013 • Driven by size and price - 7” screens, $300 and (far) below • A flood of cheap generic Chinese Androids - perhaps 125m units in China alone this year, with prices under $150 • Not clear these compete directly with Apple, Samsung & Google Tablets in 2013 17
  18. 18. ‘Four horsemen’ Apple Google Facebook Amazon 18
  19. 19. 19 Source:Apple, Google, Facebook,Amazon, Enders Analysis Ecosystem sizes 0 300 600 900 Mar-10 Sept-10 Mar-11 Sept-11 Mar-12 Sept-12 Mar-13 Active users (m) Apple iOS Google Android Facebook mobile users Amazon accounts
  20. 20. • Apple and Google’s Android have won • Unlikely that other platforms will be relevant (Windows Phone, Blackberry, other newer efforts) • But share of value and use between Apple and Android is fluid • Google’s control of Android is partial - Amazon Kindle, Chinese Android, Samsung intentions unclear • Facebook and Amazon trying to extract value 20 Platform wars
  21. 21. 21 For Apple, the ecosystem is what sells hardware For Amazon, Google and Facebook, the experience on the phone is what drives engagement with all their services Ecosystem is the key leverage point
  22. 22. 22
  23. 23. UK penetration 0 10 20 30 40 Smartphones Tablets UK install base (m) Apple Android RIM Microsoft Source:Adobe23

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