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D1 1355 bernard lee


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D1 1355 bernard lee

  1. 1. FTTH in Asia Pacific: Leading the way… Dr. Bernard Lee VP of APAC FTTH Council
  2. 2. Topics 1. Who is FTTH Council APAC? 2. Latest updates on FTTH in the region 3. Key considerations for network design 4. Key Challenges – across the region 5. Conclusions
  3. 3. Role of the FTTH Council Asia-Pacific About Us: Non-Profit Organization formed in Singapore since March 2005 Mission : To educate, promote and accelerate FTTH and the resulting quality-of-life and economic benefits. Objectives : • Supply a consistent and accurate view of FTTH • Promote FTTH market development • Be recognized by the industry as the FTTH resource (2006 ~ 2011) (2011 ~ present)
  4. 4. FTTH Council Global Alliance (FCGA) 70 MembersSource: APAC FTTH Council
  5. 5. APAC: At a glance… Monique Morrow (President) Bernard Lee Yoshihiro Anil Pande Changkun Yan Kuldeep Xingfu He Ishibashi Goyal Cloud Planning, Technology & Regulation & Market Education & Computing & Comms. & Architecture Policy Developm’t Training Gigabit Events Applications  Currently has 60+ members  BoD & 6 working committees
  6. 6. Latest market studies
  7. 7. Year-end 2011: >200 million wireline broadband subscribers in Asia-Pacific FTTH/B represents over 27% of wireline broadband subscribers in Asia Pacific which is approximately 58million subscribers. 9% 18% FTTH 8% FTTB 65% Cable Modem DSLSource: Ovum
  8. 8. FTTH in Asia Pacific – Overall Figures 25,000,000 FTTH/B subsRank Countries Dec 2011 1 Japan 22,045,000 20,000,000 2 China 21,300,000 3 4 South Korea Taiwan 10,373,975 2,398,000 15,000,000 99% Australia is one 5 Hong Kong 1,070,000 of the Top 10 6 Malaysia 255,800 10,000,000 7 Vietnam 250,000 8 India 175,500 9 Singapore 98,500 5,000,000 10 Australia 37,000 11 Indonesia 11,000 0 12 New Zealand 7,500 13 Philippines 800Source: IDATE for FTTH Council APAC, Dec 2011 8
  9. 9. FTTx is strong for the next 5 years • Worldwide, consumer FTTx subscribers accounted for 11% of wireline broadband subscriptions in 2009, and will grow to 29% in 2016 • In 2016, 50% of all wireline broadband subscribers in Asia-Pacific will be FTTx, compared to 16% in Europe and 14% in North AmericaSource: Ovum
  10. 10. FTTH/B leads the growth in wireline broadband in AP and will reach 140 million subscribers FTTH/B leads with a 21% CAGR compared to -2% for DSL FTTH/B: +21% CAGR DSL: -2% CAGRSource: Ovum
  11. 11. China will soon be the largest FTTH Market • Asia-Pacific has always dominated consumption of worldwide OLT shipments • China’s share is increasing – almost 80% of worldwide ports shipped in 1Q11 were destined for China PON OLT port shipments 1,200,000 China OLT port shipments Total Asia-Pacific OLT port shipments Worldwide port shipmentsPON OLT port shipments 1,000,000 35% CAGR for China’s OLT 800,000 ports. Compared to 600,000 24% CAGR for AP and worldwide. 400,000 200,000 0 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 Source: Ovum
  12. 12. FTTx market segmentation by country/region  China’s consumer FTTx subscriber base will grow to over 140 million in 2016 from under 10 million in 2009 FTTx consumer subscribers by country or region China Japan & Korea Rest of AP Europe NA Rest of World 250,000FTTx consumer subscribers (000) Future Growth Area Remainder represents 200,000 (e.g. India, LATAM, etc) 31% of FTTx subscribers in 2016 150,000 Japan and Korea represent 19% of worldwide FTTx subscribers in 2016 100,000 China represents 50% of worldwide FTTx 50,000 Growing Market subscribers in 2016 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Ovum Year-end
  13. 13. Summary Drivers for FTTH in APAC • Demography: a huge market potential • India and China are the most populated countries in the world • MDUs are dominating in large cities especially in China • Asia Pacific’s FTTH/B subscriber base will grow to 140 million at year-end 2015. • Low competition from other networks • As in Eastern Europe, the “quality gap” between copper and fibre networks is important: end users will need fibre for higher bandwidth • Cablecos are less dominating the broadband market than in Europe or in the US… but it could change (SARFT in China) • A key driver for mass market migration in APAC: NBN programs • Incumbents leading rollouts in APAC but also some free room for new entrants • Some incumbents are deeply involved in national FTTH/B deployments (Malaysia) • New entrants in large countries (India) or in challenging markets (Vietnam) • APAC Mobile centric countries will need fibre also: LTE BackhaulSource: iDate & Ovum
  14. 14. KeyConsiderations
  15. 15. Key Considerations for successful network design… • Is your network able to support the Technical applications that are to be delivered today and Performance ‘tomorrow’? Quality • Is your network design common and ‘robust’ Repeatability enough that the same or similar design can be & Reliability used throughout your network • Are there sufficient security measures in the Accessibility network but still accessible for maintenance and Security and testing Scalability • How will your network grow? 16Source: adapted from Telekom Malaysia
  16. 16. Key Challenges
  17. 17. Challenges FTTH Deployment & Adoption – 5Cs Challenge Impact Manpower need to be Insufficient skilled/competent MatureCompetency competent to deploy & manpower will delay deployment maintain the network thus increasing TCO New guideline and best Deter new users from Civil & practices are required to subscribing to the FTTHConstruction deploy fiber up to services due to extensive civil the customer premises work required Up to date digital home Customers will fail to Customer equipment to fully enjoy experience benefits of FTTH Equipment over DSL benefits of FTTH Customers are unknown of the Customer Customers reluctant to adopt new capabilities and potential Awareness FTTH services of FTTH Asia Pacific New content is needed to FTTH will struggle to evolve capitalize the additional speed beyond being a just another Exploratory Content offered - Increase ARPU commodity product
  18. 18. FTTH price comparable to DSL but at much higher bandwidth US$11/Mbps (US$) 10Mbps US$0.4/Mbps 100 US$0.5/MbpsFixed Monthly Charge 80 60 DSL FTTH(for detached house ) 100Mbps 500kbps 100Mbps 1Gbps 40 1.5M 8M 12M 24M 40M 47M 20 US$0.04/Mbps 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source:
  19. 19. Value Innovation… Efficient Life - Leading a life Eco-friendly Life - Giving back to Entertaining Life - Bringing thewhere technology assist you to the environment to ensure our best of high quality utilise your resources (may it future and the future of our next entertainment to your finger tips be time, finances, etc) more generation and their next anywhere & any time through efficiently and so that you generation by exploring the use any means possible may it be could start spending quality of alternative power sources and ultra-highspeed fibre networks time with your love ones and also smarter and more efficient at home or even through ultra- not taking up the time with energy utilisation both at home mobile wireless connectionsroutine activities at home and & at work when we are on the go. at the work place.
  20. 20. How has broadband ‘value add’ our lives? Matured Developing Infancy 22
  21. 21. Digital Home offering an efficient lifestyle from …
  22. 22. Verizon offers Energy Monitoring services for $9.99
  23. 23. Paving the way for New Business Opportunities Small Medium Enterprises Enterprises Service Providers 25
  24. 24. Fibre enhances customer experience Interactive Button Interactive Button Interactive Button
  25. 25. 27
  26. 26. Broadband activities cited as important byusers in terms of percentage (%) 70% 68% Increasing influence of broadband 66% 64% 62% on daily lifestyle 60% 58% 56% 54% 52% 50% Finding out what is Communicating with Contributing to Starting your views Communicating with going on in your health care or economic growth in with others about government officials community medical provider your community key issues about issues % noted as important activity 68% 65% 62% 58% 57%
  27. 27. Conclusion: Fibre is not an answer to our needs, but instead it is the ENABLER of a future filled with infinite possibilities…..