2012 Q1 Report

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Our Q1 report, with statistics on new business attraction and expansion, employment rates, industry growth, and much more.

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2012 Q1 Report

  1. 1. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q1 2012
  2. 2. Th e QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q1 2012EMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES TOTAL PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COLUMBUS REGION UNEMPLOYMENTColumbus MSA employment increased sharply during the RATEfirst quarter, gaining 9,400 jobs (1.0%). Ohio employmentincreased 0.8% and national employment rose 0.5%. The 11- 12% 102.0 -adjusted 100.0 10% Index: 1/08 = 100.0unemployment rate rose to 7.0% in March from 6.8%, but 98.0 8%remained well below the 7.5% state rate and the 8.2% U.S. 96.0 6%rate. As shown in the chart at the left, the number of active 94.0 4%local job-seekers increased during the quarter, despite a 92.0decline in March. This was the primary reason for the 90.0 2%increase in the regional unemployment rate and suggests 88.0 0% 4/09 4/08 7/08 10/08 7/09 10/09 4/10 1/08 1/09 4/11 10/11 7/10 10/10 7/11 1/10 1/11 1/12 10/08 4/09 4/08 7/08 7/09 10/09 4/10 1/08 1/09 4/11 10/11 7/10 10/10 7/11 1/10 1/11 1/12increasing optimism. Still, the difference between reportedlabor force and the level assuming normal growth indicates Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus Region Ohio U.S.that many discouraged workers remain on the sidelines. Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Stats. Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC. Seasonal adjustment of regional rate by Regionomics LLC. COLUMBUS REGION LABOR FORCE 1,120 1,070 Thousands 1,020 970 920 4/11 4/08 10/08 4/09 10/09 1/10 1/08 7/09 7/08 4/10 10/10 1/09 10/11 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 Labor force Labor force, normal growth Resident employment Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Stats. Seasonal adjustment of regional rate by Regionomics LLC. 1
  3. 3. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q1 2012EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY TRANSPORTATION, WAREHOUSING & MANUFACTURINGThe charts on this and the next page highlight employment WHOLESALE 110.0 110.0Distribution industries (including transportation, 105.0 105.0warehousing, and wholesale trade) added 1,000 jobs (1.3%) Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 100.0 100.0during the first quarter versus statewide growth of 1.9% and 95.0 95.00.6% nationwide. Manufacturing lost 3,300 jobs (5.0%) 90.0 90.0while Ohio employment increased 1.3% and U.S. 85.0 85.0employment rose 1.0%. The weakness in local 80.0 80.0manufacturing employment growth seems to be due to 75.0 75.0 70.0 70.0improving efficiency rather than weakness in the sector 4/09 4/08 10/08 1/11 7/08 7/09 10/09 4/10 10/10 1/08 1/09 4/11 10/11 7/10 7/11 1/10 1/12 4/09 4/08 10/08 1/11 7/08 7/09 10/09 1/09 4/10 10/10 4/11 10/11 1/08 7/10 7/11 1/10 1/12itself. However, Columbus Region manufacturers are likelyto reach the limit of their productivity growth and will need Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio USto increase employment, as their counterparts haveelsewhere. Business service employment increased 2,300(1.6%), better than the statewide gain of 0.5% and the U.S.gain of 1.1%. Finance and insurance lost 400 jobs (0.6%),compared to gains of 0.5% in Ohio and 0.2% nationwide. PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES FINANCE & INSURANCE 110.0 110.0 105.0 105.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 100.0 100.0 95.0 95.0 90.0 90.0 85.0 85.0 80.0 80.0 75.0 75.0 70.0 70.0 10/11 4/08 4/09 7/08 10/08 7/09 10/09 4/10 1/08 1/09 4/11 7/10 10/10 7/11 1/10 1/11 1/12 10/11 4/08 4/09 7/08 10/08 7/09 10/09 4/10 4/11 1/08 1/09 7/10 10/10 7/11 1/10 1/11 1/12 Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio US Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC. 2
  4. 4. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q1 2012EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (continued) HEALTHCARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE LEISURE & HOSPITALITYColumbus MSA healthcare employment enjoyedparticularly strong growth, gaining 2,700 jobs (2.4%) versus 125.0 110.0Ohio and U.S growth of 1.4% and 0.7%, respectively. While 120.0 105.0it is possible that the Bureau of Labor Statistics may revise Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 115.0 100.0these estimates downward later , the latest increase in 95.0 110.0healthcare employment is part of a longer-term trend. 105.0 90.0Leisure and hospitality lost 500 jobs (0.5%), compared to 100.0 85.0statewide growth of 0.1% and U.S. growth of 0.9%. 95.0 80.0Government employment was essentially unchanged in the 90.0 75.0 85.0 70.0Columbus MSA after a sustained decline in 2011. 10/08 4/09 4/08 7/08 7/09 10/09 1/09 4/10 4/11 10/11 1/08 7/10 10/10 7/11 1/10 1/11 1/12 10/10 4/08 10/08 4/09 1/11 7/09 10/09 7/08 4/10 1/08 1/09 4/11 10/11 7/10 7/11 1/10 1/12Nationwide government employment was also unchangedbut the sector gained 0.2% in Ohio. Columbus MSA retail Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio USadded a massive 3,400 jobs (3.5%) while Ohio gained 1.6%and the U.S. lost 0.3%. The $28.4 billion in taxable sales inthe Region during 2011 represented an after-inflationincrease of 2.8% from the 2010 level. GOVERNMENT RETAIL 110.0 110.0 105.0 105.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 100.0 100.0 95.0 95.0 90.0 90.0 85.0 85.0 80.0 80.0 75.0 75.0 70.0 70.0 4/08 7/11 10/08 4/09 10/09 4/10 4/11 1/08 1/09 7/08 7/09 10/10 10/11 1/10 7/10 1/11 1/12 4/09 4/08 10/08 10/09 4/10 4/11 1/08 1/09 7/08 7/09 10/10 7/11 10/11 1/10 7/10 1/11 1/12 Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio US Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC. 3
  5. 5. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q1 2012CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS REVISIONS TOTAL PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT CONSTRUCTION Each March the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses more accurate information to correct the previous two years of 950.0 40.0 Current Employment Statistics estimates. The corrections 38.0 940.0 36.0 this year increased 2011 employment significantly 34.0 930.0 Thousands Thousands particularly in the second half, as shown in the monthly 32.0 employment chart below. Average employment in 2011 is 920.0 30.0 28.0 now estimated as 916,900, an increase of 6,500 from the 910.0 26.0 original estimate. December employment was increased by 900.0 24.0 9,200. Growth for the year is now estimated at 13,600 jobs 22.0 1.5% rather than 0.7%. Annual estimates were increased by 890.0 20.0 2010 2011 2008 2009 2007 2011 2010 2007 2009 2008 6,400 for education and healthcare, 2,100 for manufacturing, and 1,200 for financial activities. The largest downward Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev. revisions were in construction (1,700) and business services (1,600).TOTAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PAYROLL MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE TRADEEMPLOYMENT, MONTHLY 930.0 80.0 39.5 78.0 920.0 76.0 39.0 74.0 38.5 910.0 Thousands Thousands Thousands 72.0 38.0 900.0 70.0 68.0 37.5 890.0 66.0 37.0 880.0 64.0 62.0 36.5 870.0 60.0 36.0 2010 2011 2008 2007 2009 2011 2010 2007 2008 2009 Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev.Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC. 4
  6. 6. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q1 2012CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS REVISIONS (continued)RETAIL TRADE TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 104.0 52.0 74.0 156.0 103.0 73.0 102.0 50.0 154.0 72.0 101.0 48.0 152.0 Thousands Thousands Thousands 71.0 Thousands 100.0 99.0 46.0 70.0 150.0 98.0 69.0 97.0 44.0 148.0 68.0 96.0 42.0 146.0 95.0 67.0 94.0 40.0 66.0 144.0 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2010 2008 2009 2011 2007 2009 2008 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev.EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES LEISURE & HOSPITALITY OTHER SERVICES GOVERNMENT 135.0 90.0 38.0 160.0 37.5 130.0 89.0 159.0 37.0 125.0 158.0 Thousands Thousands 88.0Thousands 36.5 Thousands 120.0 87.0 36.0 157.0 35.5 115.0 86.0 156.0 35.0 155.0 110.0 85.0 34.5 34.0 154.0 105.0 84.0 2011 2010 2007 2010 2008 2009 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2007 Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev.Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5

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