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Ugo Bardi - Effetto Risorse: Minerali e Limiti alla Crescita - Colloqui di Martina Franca 2014

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Colloqui di Martina Franca 2014 "Quale Economia per quale Benessere"

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Ugo Bardi - Effetto Risorse: Minerali e Limiti alla Crescita - Colloqui di Martina Franca 2014

  1. 1. Effetto Risorse: Minerali e Limiti alla Crescita Ugo Bardi University of Florence, Department of Earth Sciences Association for the study of peak oil and gas (ASPO) The Club of Rome
  2. 2. Graph by Jean Laherrere
  3. 3. By Ugo Bardi, 2013. Data from EIA
  4. 4. Average price index for aluminum, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, silver, tin and zinc (adapted from a graphic reported by Bertram et al., Resource Policy, 36(2011)315) Prezzo medio delle risorse minerali
  5. 5. Ora, io mi chiedo: ma voi, che oggi fate la spesa sotto casa, a 65 anni prenderete ogni giorno l’aereo per farla a Manhattan? Così, per sapere… I cialtroni terroristi sistematicamente confondono il valore esterno della moneta (il suo tasso di cambio) con quello interno (il suo potere di acquisto). Se l’euro si svalutasse del 50%, significherebbe (a spanna) che un dollaro costerebbe del 50% in più. Ma voi il latte sotto casa lo comprate in dollari? L’obiezione (ridicola) è: “Ma le materie prime si comprano in dollari!”. Ma ragazzi: il costo delle materie prime è solo una parte del costo finale del prodotto,
  6. 6. 21 2012 Data Country Fossil fuel Net Import Beur GdP (BEur) Percentage of GdP Source Switzerland 13.8 (2011) 470 2.9% http://www.tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/merchandise-imports-us http://www.tradingeconomics.com/switzer land/fuel-imports-percent-of- merchandise-imports-wb-data.html Italy 66 1500 4.4% http://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2012/06/18/ energia-record-della-spesa-nazionale-66- miliardi-di-euro-nel-2012/266972/ Germany 88 2500 3.5% http://www.zukunftsenergien.de/hp2/down loads/vortraege/benterbusch.pdf
  7. 7. Ora, io mi chiedo: ma voi, che oggi fate la spesa sotto casa, a 65 anni prenderete ogni giorno l’aereo per farla a Manhattan? Così, per sapere… I cialtroni terroristi sistematicamente confondono il valore esterno della moneta (il suo tasso di cambio) con quello interno (il suo potere di acquisto). Se l’euro si svalutasse del 50%, significherebbe (a spanna) che un dollaro costerebbe del 50% in più. Ma voi il latte sotto casa lo comprate in dollari? L’obiezione (ridicola) è: “Ma le materie prime si comprano in dollari!”. Ma ragazzi: il costo delle materie prime è solo una parte del costo finale del prodotto,
  8. 8. The Limits to Growth 2004
  9. 9. 28 Energiewende Energy in truth stands not beside but entirely above all other commodities.... With energy almost any feat is possible or easy; without it we are thrown back into the laborious poverty of early times. William Stanley Jevons, 1866
  10. 10. Acknowledgement – The Club of Rome Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker, co-president Anders Wijckman, co-president Ian Johnson, secretary general Daphne Davies Linda Schenk Alexander Stefes Joséphine von Mitschke-Collande Karl Wagner
  11. 11. 30
  12. 12. New fossil sources: $650 Billion http://carbontracker.live.kiln.it/Unburnable-Carbon-2-Web-Version.pdf http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2013 Images GNU license from Wikipedia New renewable plants: $250 Billion Global Energy Investments in 2012
  13. 13. 32 The Hubbert Peak
  14. 14. 33
  15. 15. 34
  16. 16. 35
  17. 17. 36
  18. 18. 37
  19. 19. 38
  20. 20. 40 Energiewende Energy in truth stands not beside but entirely above all other commodities.... With energy almost any feat is possible or easy; without it we are thrown back into the laborious poverty of early times. William Stanley Jevons, 1866
  21. 21. Jean Laherrere, 2013 Oil production, recent trends

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