Q3 2013 | VIETNAM OVERVIEW

vietnam

research & forecast Report

www.colliers.com/vietnam
Vie tnam Propert y Marke t At a Gl ance
Q3
2013
HCMC
HANOI

Office

Retail

Rent Occupancy Demand

Rent

healthy
stable

R...
VIETNAM | Q3 2013 | ECONOMIC UPDATE
VIETNAM’S ECONOMY SEE POSITIVE SIGNALS IN Q3 2013
Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product (GD...
HO CHI MINH & HANOI | Q3 2013 | ECONOMIC UPDATE

HO CHI MINH CITY ECONOMIC UPDATE

HANOI ECONOMIC UPDATE

As reported by i...
HO CHI MINH CITY & HANOI | Q3 2013 | INFRASTRUCTURE
DAU GIAY - PHAN THIET EXPRESSWAY

Ho Chi Minh City
Plans are underway ...
HO CHI MINH CITY | Q3 2013 | OFFICE MARKET
SUPPLY BY GRADE, Q3 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW
In Q3 2013, the Lim Tower, located at...
HANOI | Q3 2013 | OFFICE MARKET
SUPPLY BY GRADE, Q3 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW
During Q3 2013, 3 new grade office buildings cam...
HO CHI MINH CITY | Q3 2013 | RETAIL MARKET
AVERAGE MARKET PERFORMANCE, Q3 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW
The retail market declined...
HANOI | Q3 2013 | RETAIL MARKET
SUPPLY BY TYPE, Q3 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW
In Q3 2013, Hanoi retail market welcomed the new ...
HO CHI MINH CITY | Q3 2013 | RESIDENTIAL MARKET
OVERALL MARKET OPERATION, Q3 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW
In Q3, the government r...
HANOI | Q3 2013 | RESIDENTIAL MARKET
NEWLY-LAUNCHED UNITS, Q3 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW
In Q3 2013, the low income VND 30,000 ...
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q3 2013 | VIETNAM

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Vietnam Research & Forecast Report | Q32013 (EN)

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Vietnam Research & Forecast Report | Q32013 (EN)

  1. 1. Q3 2013 | VIETNAM OVERVIEW vietnam research & forecast Report www.colliers.com/vietnam
  2. 2. Vie tnam Propert y Marke t At a Gl ance Q3 2013 HCMC HANOI Office Retail Rent Occupancy Demand Rent healthy stable Residential Primary Secondary Sold Occupancy Demand price price rate weak healthy Table of Contents Economy of Vietnam • Vietnam’s economy sees positive signals in Q3 2013 • New legislations were reviewed to rescue the market • VMAC buys US$110 million of Agribank’s bad debts Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi’ s Economic Update Ho Chi Minh City Infrastructure Update Ho Chi Minh City Property Market Office • Market Overview • Market Performance • Market Outlook Retail • Market Overview • Market Performance • Market Outlook Residential • Market Overview • Market Performance • Market Outlook Hanoi Property Market Office • Market Overview • Market Performance • Market Outlook Retail • Market Overview • Market Performance • Market Outlook Residential • Market Overview • Market Performance • Market Outlook Page 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 5 5 5 7 7 7 9 9 9 Demand healthy healthy
  3. 3. VIETNAM | Q3 2013 | ECONOMIC UPDATE VIETNAM’S ECONOMY SEE POSITIVE SIGNALS IN Q3 2013 Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q3 was higher than previously forecasted by the Government thanks to prioritized efforts to help maintain macro-economic stability and curb inflation. The GDP has increased 5.54% compared with the same period in 2012 and is steadily improving quarter over quarter (first quarter: 4.89%, second quarter: 5.00%). Foreign direct investment (FDI) is estimated at US$15 billion in the first nine months of 2013, exceeding the target of US$13-14 billion for the whole year. FDI capital expenditure during this year also continued to rise from the last year representing a 6.4% y-o-y increase and approaching the entire 2013 target of US$10.5-11 billion. VIETNAM’S GDP GROWTH RATE Source: GSO VIETNAM’ S CPI MONTH-ON-MONTH In the industrial manufacturing sector production levels have increased while the production index jumped 5.4% in September. However, import growth rates of raw materials remained modest, suggesting that inventory stocks are being reduced and production efficiencies are being examined. In the retail sector, January-September retail sales of goods and services increased by 12.5% against the same period last year but profit margins of retailer have seen a decline with the offering of incentives and price reductions to entice purchasing of goods. NEW LEGISLATIONS WERE REVIEWED TO RESCUE THE MARKET Vietnam continues to improve its economic environment and increase foreign capital investment. A recent proposal by the Ministry of Construction, will allow foreigners who have been granted a residence visa of over three months to be allowed to buy dwellings. Suggested legislation will also include foreign investment funds and commercial banks, as well as branches and representative offices of foreign companies currently in operation in Vietnam. The Ministry has also proposed that foreigners may rent, sell or donate houses that they own 12 months after the house ownership certificates have been granted. However, the report suggested that Source: GSO applicable purchaser can only buy properties with a maximum land plot area of 500 sq m. It is hoped that these changes, if approved, will give a boost to the residential market. The State Securities Commission (SSC) has submitted to the government the plan to raise the ceiling foreign ownership ratio, to encourage foreign investment and securities. They hope to raise the ceiling from 49% to 60% which would bring big changes to listed companies. REGISTERED & DISBURSED FDI EXPORT & IMPORT TURNOVER Source: GSO Source: GSO VAMC BUY US$110 MILLION OF AGRIBANK’S BAD DEBTS This year has seen the Government take increased action to control bad debts. The Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC) which opened on July 26. is a wholly-state-owned business directed entirely at managing the bad debts of the financial industry. The first bad debts purchase between Agribank and VMAC on October 1, and there are several more banks preparing to do the same. While this will transfer debts off the books of lending institutions, plans to resolve and sell these debts have yet to materialize. TOTAL RETAIL SALES OF GOODS AND SERVICES REVENUE Source: GSO P.1 | Colliers International
  4. 4. HO CHI MINH & HANOI | Q3 2013 | ECONOMIC UPDATE HO CHI MINH CITY ECONOMIC UPDATE HANOI ECONOMIC UPDATE As reported by its Statistics Office of Ho Chi Minh City, recorded Hanoi’s GDP growth in Q3 2013 reached 7.88%, a 21% increase a growth rate of 10.3% in the third quarter of 2013, up 0.7% from last quarter. against the same period in the previous year. Year to date, the The service industry showed the greatest growth in Q3 of 8.9%, Committee has licensed 291 new FDI projects with a total regis- followed by construction and industry at 7.42%. Increase in pe- tered capital of US$650.7 million. troleum, tuition and health services fee, contributed to a jump in In addition, 94 projects increased their investment capital with Hanoi’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation stands at 6.17% in of US$604.8 million. Total retail sales of goods and service was the first a month over the same period last year. estimated at VND 441,076 billion from January to September, Hanoi has attracted a total of $741.92 million of new registered up 12.2% and the September’s consumer price index increased FDI this year, approximately. 57% of its annual target for 2013. 3.13% compared to the previous month. Based on y-o-y comparison, the registered capital decreased ap- International arrivals went up 3% to 2.8 million, fulfilling 68% proximately 17% although the number of projects increases 6.5%. of its 4.1 million yearly target, and estimated revenue generated International visitors to Hanoi this year reached 1.3 million, a from arrivals was VND 62,396 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.1% y-o-y increase. 20%, 77% of this year’s target. CPI MONTH-ON-MONTH GDP GROWTH RATE Source: GSO Source: GSO FOREIGN INVESTMENT CAPITAL RETAIL SALES GROWTH RATE Source: GSO Source: GSO P.2 | Colliers International
  5. 5. HO CHI MINH CITY & HANOI | Q3 2013 | INFRASTRUCTURE DAU GIAY - PHAN THIET EXPRESSWAY Ho Chi Minh City Plans are underway for a Dau Giay – Phan Thiet Expressway. Targeted for completion in 2019, this four-lane, 100-kilometre expressway will connect HCMC to the south-central city of Phan Thiet – significantly reducing travel time. The Bitexco Group has already been selected by the Government and the World Bank as part investor for the US$757 million Dau Giay – Source: Internet NEW PROJECTS IN HO CHI MINH CITY Phan Thiet Expressway Project, with a secondary bidding round to select the second investor for the project taking place in the year ahead. Q3 also swathe completion of: >> Two steel flyovers in 3/2 - Ly Thai To in District 10 and Hoang Hoa Tham - Cong Hoa in Tan Binh District. >> A five-kilometre section of the Tan Son Nhat - Binh Loi Outer Ring Road opening to traffic on September 28 and running from Nguyen Thai Son intersection to National Highway 13. >> The Saigon 2 Bridge linking District 2 and Binh Thanh District. The bridge is expected to serve around 40% of the traffic crossing the Sai Gon River from the city. Source: Internet CAT LINH - HA DONG METRO ROUTE Hanoi During Q3/2013, Hanoi managed to speed up its metro project. Until July 2013, the 2A route connecting Cat Linh and Ha Dong districts has finished land clearance for the 23.3-ha depot in Ha Dong District and 9.7 of 13km railway are ready for construction. 255 of 421 bridge piers and 7 of 12 stations have been constructed. Whereas the training plan for management and operation team of this project have been finished, Source: Internet NATIONAL ROAD NO. 5 PROLONG the main contractor EPC is seeking for train providers. This route is expected to come into operation in Q1/2015. In the new expansion area of Hanoi, the National Road No.5 Prolong is one of the focus projects with strong support from Hanoi’s People Committee. The original completion date was set in 2008 but has been delayed to Q2/2014. To reach this new adjusted target, land clearance was expedited and has been handed over to the contractor in August. Source: Internet P.3 | Colliers International
  6. 6. HO CHI MINH CITY | Q3 2013 | OFFICE MARKET SUPPLY BY GRADE, Q3 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW In Q3 2013, the Lim Tower, located at 9-11 Ton Duc Thang Street in District 1, entered the market. Suggested to be a Grade A building was 34 upper floors and two basements, comprising of 34,000 sq m of commercial office space. 60% of the building has already been occupied by Techcombank and Puma. Landlord of Grade B and C buildings are well as outlying developments are still offering incentives to entice potential tenants. This has led to Source: Colliers International a stronger absorption in Q3 than previous quarters, increasing month by month because of the limited of supply and slight uptick in demand. ASKING RENT BY GRADE, Q3 2013 Lessors of Grade A buildings are increasing their rents slowly given the limited Grade A space available, limited new supply and increased in demand from premier organisations where location and quality of service is a major factor. Average overall market occupancy rates increased to 89.9%, from 88.2% in previous quarter. MARKET PERFORMANCE Source: Colliers International OCCUPANCY RATE BY GRADE, Q3 2013 All three grades’ asking rent declined in Q3, continued their downward trend. The average asking rent of Grade A decreased nearly to 4% q-o-q, to US$37.4/ sq m/ month. Overall occupancy rates increased, slightly to 86.9% from 85.5% in previous quarter with the uptake of 1,610 sq m of space though minor tenants over numerous buildings. The average asking rents of Grade B also showed a decrease of 6% qo-q, remaining at US$18.8/ sq m/ month. Because most of the Grade B is located outside the Central Business District (CBD) has a lower rent than previous quarter, some of them were the lowest price since Source: Colliers International VIETCOMBANK TOWER Q2 2012. However Grade B performed best when occupancy rate was approximately 91% in this quarter. Grade C Office asking rents dropped from US$15.6/ sq m/ month to US$14.1/ sq m/ month, a decrease of 9% q-o-q. Vacancy levels fell by 12.3% compared with the previous quarter. MARKET OUTLOOK The demand of the market will be healthy in the foreseeable future due to a steady increase of Ho Chi Minh City’s demand. New office constructions has been modest with only several new buildings opening next year. Sunny Tower has showed good progress while Vietinbank Tower, Vietcombank Tower, and Le Meridien Saigon are expected to complete in 2014. Source: Internet P.4 | Colliers International From now to the end of the year, expect asking rents to climb slowly.
  7. 7. HANOI | Q3 2013 | OFFICE MARKET SUPPLY BY GRADE, Q3 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW During Q3 2013, 3 new grade office buildings came online in Western Hanoi (new CBD), with a total supply of around 45,000 sq m, bringing the total supply to approximately 1.5 million sq m NFA. New supply continues to outpace demand, applying a steady downward pressure on rents. Tenants continued to move out the CBD to higher quality and less expensive options in outlying districts. Landlords are fight a losing battle against new supply to retain current tenants as well as attract new ones, yet leading to price and services competition. There is no Source: Colliers International GRADE A OFFICE PERFORMANCE sign of the market floor as prices have continued to decline steadily over the last two years. MARKET PERFORMANCE During Q3 2013 Grade A rents decreased slightly over the same period to US$32.10/ sq m/ month. Expect rents to fall in Q4 as new incentives and rent reductions continue to roll out. The good news is that occupancy has increased slightly 74% up from 72% in Q2. Several Grade A buildings have achieved 90% occupancy and continue to absorb new tenants with flexible terms and superior building Source: Colliers International GRADE B OFFICE PERFORMANCE design. The Grade B segment increased rents to US$18/ sq m/ month from US$17/ sq m/ month and sacrificed occupancy which fell 5% to 68%. Fierce competition in Western Hanoi is being exacerbated by the new supply. MARKET OUTLOOK Lotte Centre Hanoi had its topping ceremony this quarter which strongly remind the market of their imminence impact. 45,000 sq m of grade A office in the area between old and new CBD shall challenging much greater competition threat to both sides. The building is taking Source: Colliers International inquiry from tenants who can be move in beginning Q2 2014. ESTIMATED FUTURE SUPPLY Source: Internet P.5 | Colliers International
  8. 8. HO CHI MINH CITY | Q3 2013 | RETAIL MARKET AVERAGE MARKET PERFORMANCE, Q3 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW The retail market declined over the quarter with both average asking rents and occupancy rate dropped slightly. Discounts and sales promotions have been offered by many commercial centers to boost sales, however, customers continue to reduce spending amid worries about recession, unemployment, and high prices. In the central business district (CBD), an increasing number of vacant kiosks have not changed landlord rental strategy as high rents are forcing retailers to consider leaving commercial centers and seek more affordable Source: Colliers International locations. According to our Retail Leasing team, tenants prefer high - MIN - MAX AVERAGE ASKING RENT street shop houses which offer affordable rental and large space over the malls in the CBD. Although purchasing power has weakened due to the slowdown, HCMC, is sorting to see gains in consumer’s demand. In Q3, hundreds of convenience stores and food & beverage (F&B) have joined the retail market and expanded their chain stores such as Starbucks, KFC, Circle K, Shop & go, Coffe Bean, Burger King. In the middle of July, the world most famous fast food chain, McDonald’s, has officially announced their appearance in Vietnam through a franchise to Good Source: Colliers International Day Hospitality Company. Their first store will open in Q1 2014. CANTAVIL PREMIER EXISTING SUPPLY Q3 2013 Source: Colliers International MARKET PERFORMANCE Overall, the retail market declined slightly in the review quarter. The average rent of retail market dropped 3% q-o-q to US$49.24/ sq m/ month. Occupancy rate remained low and continuous went down, fell q-o-q from 86.2% to 82.2%. The highest rental was retail podium, nearly US$61.4/ sq m/ month while the best occupancy was in the department store segment, staying at 87.3%. Source: Colliers International SAIGON AIRPORT PLAZA OUTLOOK Although the retail sector has been in decline over the past two years due to the declining buying power, the market is still appealing to foreign investors via mergers and acquisitions. Alternatives such as F&B, online shopping, mini-supermarkets and convenience stores with low operating costs have become popular with consumers.New supply will be came from retail podiums such as Saigon Airport Plaza, Cantavil Premier, Times Square, Thao Dien Pearl, and City Garden. The landlords are going to upgrading and restructuring their owner building, also offer more policy, incentives contracts to support the tenants, especially non-CBD landlords. P.6 | Colliers International Source: Colliers International
  9. 9. HANOI | Q3 2013 | RETAIL MARKET SUPPLY BY TYPE, Q3 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW In Q3 2013, Hanoi retail market welcomed the new Vincom Mega Mall Royal City. The concept is brand new in the Hanoi market is highly anticipated. Retail space within CBD is showing signs of stagnation as prices remain high while the luxury and mid end retailers continue to struggle. On the other hand the market in the outer CBD is growing strongly as retailers more into the low and middle income areas setting the stage far a strong rebound in near future. Source: Colliers International GRADE A OFFICE PERFORMANCE MARKET OPERATION The average market rent was recorded at approximately US$61/ sq m, a decrease of 7% q-o-q. This drop in price mainly comes from new space within the old CBD trying to re-launch and offer more competitive pricing to attract retailers. The launch of Vincom Mega Mall was very successful attracting many people to the mall. Accessibility and parking are current problems which should resolve it self as the novelty wears off. OUTLOOK Source: Colliers International AVERAGE RENT BY TYPES Source: Colliers International VINCOM MEGA MALL ROYAL CITY Lotte Mart is re-launching at MIPEC tower Q1 2013 and opening Lotte Center Hanoi Q2 2014. Their two large shopping centers will stir up the market and covering a large audience between the Old and New CBDs. Retail space in both CBDs will face this new challenging business concept from the Korean giant. Meanwhile on the demand side, purchasing power remain weak due to the slow economy. However, international retailers are targeting the rising middle class and helping shape a new trendy lifestyle. We can expect the retail market recover faster than any other real estate sector. Following Vietnam’s agreement to join the WTO, regulations are gradually loosen up, which is creating a better investment environment and attracting FDI, opening the door for more retailers make their presence in the next several years. Source: Colliers International P.7 | Colliers International
  10. 10. HO CHI MINH CITY | Q3 2013 | RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERALL MARKET OPERATION, Q3 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW In Q3, the government released a new policy which discounted value added tax (VAT) to the sale and lease of commercial apartments with a floor area of less than 70 sq m, which are sold at a price below VND15 million per sq m, from July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014. The government also reviewed a proposal by the Ministry of Construction, which would allow the foreigners to buy homes in Vietnam. Approximately 1,700 units were launched in Q3, an increased of 45% Source: Colliers International q-o-q. Some of outstanding projects were Sunrise City (North Segment), ESTIMATED FUTURE SUPPLY SCG Nguyen Cuu Van, Ehome 3 and Happy Valley. A discount of 10%30% have been common headlined, especially the developer - Novaland was discounted 50% in Sunrise City for their tower (North), however the product was reduced someway so the clients should be noted when tending to buy these kind of apartments. While the another developers were expected higher price in future so they want to launch their building later. Source: Colliers International MARKET PERFORMANCE In the primary market, average asking price dropped from US$889/ While in the secondary market, average asking rent went up from sq m to US$819/ sq m, a slight decrease of 7% q-o-q. In this quarter, US$962/ sq m to US$1047/ sq m in this quarter. Most of transactions the market saw an increase in transactions were apartments in District 2 and District 7, which have affordable due to discounts extension of payment terms, and free management fees. SECONDARY MARKET, Q3 2013 prices PRIMARY MARKET, Q3 2013 Source: Colliers International MARKET OUTLOOK According to the Housing and Real Estate Market Management Department, in HCMC, inventory of 121 apartment projects were 14, 816 units. To reduce these inventories, the developers will need to further reduce prices or convert commercial apartments to social apartments. Sentiment in the market is beginning to turn bullish as we are rebounding from the floor. The authorities will revise law to encourage foreign investment in the property market, including making it easier for foreigners to own property. However, foreigners investors are still hesitant in the face of high taxes and poor infrastructure P.8 | Colliers International HAPPY VALLEY
  11. 11. HANOI | Q3 2013 | RESIDENTIAL MARKET NEWLY-LAUNCHED UNITS, Q3 2013 MARKET OVERVIEW In Q3 2013, the low income VND 30,000 billion stimulus package has fail to make any significant impact on the market. Only a small amount of transactions, that qualified and managed to get the special loan, was recorded by the authority, 350 individuals borrowing only slightly over VND 100 billion. The Hanoi market has shown cautious movement, launching 1900 units, and the average market price remained almost unchanged Source: Colliers International from the previous period. THE PRIMARY MARKET AVERAGE NEWLY-LAUNCHED PRICE In Q3 2013, Hoang Thanh Tower opened its model house marking the return of high end residential for sale. Together with other projects such as IPH and Royal City, the high end sector is making a return with positive momentum. It is worthy to note that Hoang Thanh sales were recorded at more than US$4.000 per sq m. This bodes well for the high end segment as demand is still out there for projects that can show a realistic touch and feel for the buyer. With good construction quality and reliable construction progress, buyers would be more Source: Colliers International willing to sign contracts - a marked difference from the past where buyers were purchasing yet-to-built units and expecting handovers AVERAGE SECONDARY PRICE several years. THE SECONDARY MARKET Secondary market continues to suffer from low liquidity as the fight between investor and developer continues. Asking prices in Ha Dong decreased as much as 5% while Long Bien, Hai Ba Trung and Dong Da were also down by 3 to 4 percent. As developers in the primary market are reducing the selling price publicly or discreetly, secondSource: Colliers International HOANG THANH TOWER ary investors, especially ones who own unfinished units, are being squeezed. The market is strongly a buyer’s market who have turned to deal hunting. OUTLOOK Following Q2 2013, this quarter provided more light at the end of the tunnel for the residential market. With prices near bottom, home buyers and long term investors are looking for their deals with cautious optimism. Secondary market at certain good quality projects showed a slight increase in prices. Demand for units that are close to completion with reliable construction progress is high as evidenced by actual transactions. Distinctive developers have differentiated themselves from others through their progress and capital strength. P.9 | Colliers International
  12. 12. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q3 2013 | VIETNAM About Colliers International Colliers International is a leader in global real estate services, defined by our spirit of enterprise. Through a culture of service excellence and a shared sense of initiative, we integrate the resources of real estate specialists worldwide to accelerate the success of our partners. We connect through a shared set of values that shape a collaborative environment throughout our organization that is unsurpassed in the industry. With more than 100 professionals in 2 offices in Vietnam, the team is market driven and has proven and successful track record with both international and local experience. From Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City, we provide a full range of real estate services • Research >>Market research across all sectors >>Market analysis, advisory, and strategy 482 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United States Canada Latin America Asia Pacific EMEA : 140 : 42 : 20 : 195 : 85 $2 billion in annual revenue • Valuation & Advisory Services 13,500 professionals and staff 2.5 >>Valuation for land, existing property or development sites >>Feasibility studies to determine NPV, IRR and highest & best use billion square feet under management • Office Services >>Tenant Representation >>Landlord Representation COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL • Residential Sales & Leasing HO CHI MINH CITY Bitexco Office Building, 7th Floor 19-25 Nguyen Hue Street District 1, HCM City, Vietnam Tel: + 84 8 3827 5665 • Retail Services • Investment Services • Real Estate Management Services • Corporate Services • Industrial Leasing The foundation of our services is the strength and depth of our experience. HANOI Capital Tower, 10th Floor 109 Tran Hung Dao Street, Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi, Vietnam Tel: +84 4 3941 3277 Please contact, If you would like to recieve our other research reports Publication Coverage Frequency Content Availability DAVID JACKSON Deputy General Director david.jackson@colliers.com +84 1223 719 7184 Research & Forecast Report Vietnam Cities Quarterly All market sectors Publicly available CBD Report HCMC CBD Monthly Office, Retail, Hotel and Serviced Apartment Publicly available Asia Pacific Office Report Asia Pacific including Vietnam Quarterly Office market Publicly available Vietnam Property Market Report Vietnam cities Quarterly All market sectors On subscription Development Recommendation Vietnam cities At request All market sectors On subscription www.colliers.com/vietnam LINH PHAM Research Manager linh.pham@colliers.com +84 912 013 536 This document/email has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising Accelerating success

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