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Does Urban Tree Planting Cause Gentrification?

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Does Urban Tree Planting Cause Gentrification?

  1. 1. Does Urban Tree Planting Cause Gentrification? Abigail Kaminski Social Science Information Specialist Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service Partners in Community Forestry Conference 11/17/2022 Donovan, G. H., Prestemon, J. P., Butry, D. T., Kaminski, A. R., Monleon, V. J. (2021). The politics of urban trees: Tree planting is associated with gentrification in Portland, Oregon. Forest Policy and Economics. 124.
  2. 2. Overview • Urban trees • Gentrification • Value of trees • Neighborhood desirability • Results • Discussion Research objective: Assess whether tree planting is associated with gentrification in Portland, Oregon. 2
  3. 3. Forest Park, Portland OR. Image credit: David Dayan Pier Park, Portland OR. Image credit: Abigail Kaminski Milwaukee Street lined with Mature Ash Trees by usfs_Eastern_Region is marked with Public Domain Mark 1.0. Young street tree in Portland, OR. Image credit: Abigail Kaminski Flowering street tree, Portland OR. Image credit: Abigail Kaminski 3
  4. 4. Urban Trees Costs include: • Planting and pruning • Street debris clean-up • Infrastructure repair • Liability Benefits include: • Air quality (Nowak 2006) • Stormwater management (Berland et al. 2017) • Reduce heat island effect (Rahman et al. 2020) • Crime rate reduction (Kuo and Sullivan 2001) • Improved health (Donovan et al. 2011; Wolf et al. 2020) 4
  5. 5. An influx of more affluent residents causing a change in the demographic composition and character of a neighborhood Gentrification Many ways to define. • New types of businesses • Influxes of investment • Increased property values & rents • Displacement of established communities 5
  6. 6. Green Gentrification • Green space is often distributed unequally across a city • Greening efforts make neighborhoods more desirable • Housing and other costs may increase • Major changes to natural amenities • Does this apply to tree planting, too? 6
  7. 7. Measuring gentrification • No one definition and no one measurement • Housing sales as an indicator Image credit: Suburban: house 6 by Tracey Saxby, Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 ) F O R S A L E 7
  8. 8. Hedonic method Image credits: Suburban: house 6 by Tracey Saxby, Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 Quercus coccinea (Scarlet Oak) by Dylan Taillie, Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 8
  9. 9. What is the value of a tree? • Portland, Oregon • Homeowners • (Donovan and Butry 2010) • Street trees • Street trees increase sales price • Spillover effects to neighbors • Cost of trees is homeowner responsibility 9 Image credit: Quercus coccinea (Scarlet Oak) by Dylan Taillie, Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
  10. 10. What is the value of a tree? • Portland, Oregon • Renters • (Donovan and Butry 2011) • Street and yard trees • Houses with trees have higher rents • Street trees have higher premium than yard trees Image credit: Quercus coccinea (Scarlet Oak) by Dylan Taillie, Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 10
  11. 11. Neighborhood-level process +$$$ Image credits: Suburban: house 6 by Tracey Saxby, Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 "035364: Carliol Street Newcastle upon Tyne Dept of Environmental Health c.1935" by Newcastle Libraries is marked with Public Domain Mark 1.0. "panorama architecture Gantoise" by angelobrathot is marked with Public Domain Mark 1.0. 11
  12. 12. Tree planting in Portland, OR Non-profit planting trees in Portland for 30 years 12 • 1990 – 2019 • Street trees & yard trees • Year planted • Census tracts Image credit: Quercus coccinea (Scarlet Oak) by Dylan Taillie, Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 Restoration: Planting trees by Tracey Saxby, Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
  13. 13. What makes a neighborhood desirable? NEIGHBORHOOD DESIRABILITY Green Space Historic Landmarks Light Rail Characteristics of Houses in Area Tree planting Tree cover National Register of Historic Places Mean size of houses Mean age of houses Light rail stops 13
  14. 14. Historic landmarks (+) Light rail stop (+) Significant about 2 years before opening Results Mean age of houses (+) Mean size of houses (+) Tree cover (+) 14
  15. 15. Tree planting is associated with a modest increase in neighborhood-level house prices but not until at least 6 years after planting. <1 year since planting 6 years since planting 12 years since planting Image credit: Geoffrey Donovan 15
  16. 16. 6 years 8 years 9 years 11 years 12 years ↑ $119 ↑ $150 ↑ $180 ↑ $170 ↑ $265 16 Image credit: Quercus coccinea (Scarlet Oak) by Dylan Taillie, Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 Neighborhood price premium
  17. 17. Street trees vs. Yard trees • Street trees: • Similar results as combined model • Yard trees: • Larger effect than combined model 17 Image credit: Quercus coccinea (Scarlet Oak) by Dylan Taillie, Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
  18. 18. Comparing to other neighborhood characteristics • ↑ Increase in neighborhood price premium associated with: • ↑ Increase in median household income • ↑ Increase in percent non-Hispanic white population • ↑ Increase in percent of owner-occupied housing • ↓Decrease in percent of residents without a high school diploma 18
  19. 19. Discussion • Limitations of our study • Not causal link between tree planting and gentrification • We used one metric of gentrification • Tree planting data isn’t exhaustive • Tree health over study period not considered • Results specific to study area 19
  20. 20. Summary • Tree planting is associated with measures of gentrification, but the overall effect is modest. • The effect of tree planting gets larger as trees age. • Yard trees may have a larger impact than street trees (maybe because they are larger species) • Our results are specific to Portland, Oregon. Tree planting is a cost-effective way of improving the environment of underserved neighborhoods. However, it would be counterproductive if such efforts displaced the residents that tree- planting programs were designed to benefit. 20
  21. 21. References Berland, A., Shiflett, S. A., Shuster, W. D., Garmestani, A. S., Goddard, H. C., Herrmann, D. L., Hopton, M. E. (2017). The role of trees in urban stormwater management. Landscape and Urban Planning. 162. 167 – 177. Donovan, G. H., Michael, Y. L., Burty, D. T., Sullivan, A. D., Chase, J. M. Urban trees and risk of poor birth outcomes. (2010). Health & Place. 17(1). 390 – 393. Donovan, G.H., Butry, D.T. (2010). Trees in the city: valuing street trees in Portland, Oregon. Landscape and Urban Planning. 94. 77–83. Donovan, G.H., Butry, D.T., (2011). The effect of urban trees on the rental price of single family homes in Portland, Oregon. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening 10. 163–168. Kuo, F. E., Sullivan, W. C. (2001). Environment and crime in the inner city: Does vegetation reduce crime? Environmental Behavior. 33. 343 – 367. Nowak, D. J., Crane, D. E., & Stevens, J. C. (2006). Air pollution removal by urban trees and shrubs in the United States. Urban forestry & urban greening, 4(3-4), 115-123. Rahman, M. A., Stratopoulos, L. M. F., Moser-Reischl, A., Zölch, T., Karl-Heinz, Häberle, Rötzer, T., Pretzsch, H., Pauleit, S. (2020). Traits of trees for cooling urban heat islands: A meta-analysis. Building and Environment. 170. Schroeder, H., Flannigan, J., Coles, R. (2006). Residents’ Attitudes Toward Street Trees in the UK and U.S. Communities. Arboriculture & Urban Forestry. (2006). 32(5): 236 – 246. Wolf, K. L., Lam, S. T., McKeen, J. K., Richardson, G. R. A., van den Bosch, M., Bardekjian, A. C. (2020). Urban Trees and Human Health: A Scoping Review. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 17. 21
  22. 22. Data used in analysis based on time since planting • Not full 1990 – 2019 dataset • 6 years since planting: • House sales from 1996 – 2019 • Houses sold in 1996 paired with trees planted in 1990 • 12 years since planting: • House sales from 2002 – 2019 • Houses sold in 2002 paired with trees planted in 1990 <1 year since planting 6 years since planting 12 years since planting Image credit: Geoffrey Donovan 22
  23. 23. lnPi,j = β0 + β1Ln(House area)i,j + β2Ln(Lot area)i,j + β3House agei,j + β4Bathroomsi,j + β5-7Season of salei,j + β8-14Heating systemi,j + uj + ei Neighborhood Desirabilityi,j = β0 + β1Trees Plantedi,j + βX + uj + ei,j 23
  24. 24. Thank you! Abigail Kaminski: Abigail.Kaminski@usda.gov Geoffrey Donovan: Geoffrey.Donovan@usda.gov 24

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