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Diversity in global food supplies and the implications for food security

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Presentation to Australian Grains Genebank, 21 March 2016, Horsham, Australia.
Presentation to Agribio, La Trobe University, 18 March 2016, Melbourne, Australia.

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Diversity in global food supplies and the implications for food security

  1. 1. Diversity in global food supplies and the implications for food security Colin K. Khoury Australian Grains Genebank Horsham, Australia
  2. 2. How many crops feed the world? Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).
  3. 3. A simple question? http://www.jstor.org/stable/2385929
  4. 4. National diets are growing larger and more energy dense Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  5. 5. National diets are becoming more diverse* *for crops measured in FAO food supply data Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  6. 6. National diets are becoming more even* Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  7. 7. National diets are becoming more similar* Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  8. 8. calories National diets are becoming more similar* Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  9. 9. 1961 National diets are becoming more similar* Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  10. 10. 1985 National diets are becoming more similar* Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  11. 11. 2009 National diets are becoming more similar* Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  12. 12. National diets are becoming more similar* Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  13. 13. calories Changing importance of crops in diets Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  14. 14. • Major cereals, tubers and sugar- centerpiece and still growing • Oil crops, especially soybean and palm oil- major increases • Regional cereals, tubers, and oils- marginalizing • Local crops also declining Changing relative contribution to diets Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  15. 15. • Calories: + rape and mustard (+20,751%), palm oil (+6724%), rice (+232%), potatoes (+37%), grapes (+130%), cottonseed oil (+6250%), maize (+279%), soybean (+943%), olives (+227%), cocoa (+184%) - wheat (-24%), sugar (-33%), barley (-20%), coconuts (-51%) • Protein: + potatoes (+41%), rice (+242%), peas (+105%), maize (+361%) - wheat (-25%), groundnut (-39%) • Fat: + rape and mustard (+18,796%), palm oil (+4040%), cottonseed oil (+2757%), soybean (647%), olives (+152%), sunflower (+281%) - coconut (-61%), wheat (-42%), groundnut (-77%) Australian dietary change 1961 to 2009 Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006
  16. 16. Soybeans are harvested at Fartura Farm, in Mato Grosso state, Brazil – Paulo Fridman/Corbis http://blog.bpmcpa.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Globalization12.png Drivers: agricultural development
  17. 17. Implications in agricultural systems Soybeans are harvested at Fartura Farm, in Mato Grosso state, Brazil – Paulo Fridman/Corbis Neil Palmer/ CIAT
  18. 18. http://www.bento.com/subtop5.html Global food system
  19. 19. This is the wheat, rice, maize, sugar, palm oil, soybean phase Triticum, Oryza, Zea, Saccharum, Elaeis, Glycine This is the Triticoryzeacchalaeiscine “Triti-co-ryze-accha-laeis-cine”
  20. 20. Crop Wild Relatives
  21. 21. https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/ CWR in global conservation targets “By 2020, the genetic diversity of cultivated plants and farmed and domesticated animals and of wild relatives, including other socio- economically as well as culturally valuable species, is maintained, and strategies have been developed and implemented for minimizing genetic erosion and safeguarding their genetic diversity.” Convention on Biological Diversity Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 Aichi Biodiversity Targets
  22. 22. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?menu=1300 CWR in global development targets “By 2020 maintain genetic diversity of seeds, cultivated plants, farmed and domesticated animals and their related wild species, including through soundly managed and diversified seed and plant banks at national, regional and international levels, and ensure access to and fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge as internationally agreed” United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Target 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture
  23. 23. Crop wild relatives are valuable Aluminium tolerance from Oryza rufipogon Salinity tolerance from Solanum cheesmaniae Western corn rootworm resistance from Tripsacum dactyloides Salinity tolerance from Helianthus paradoxus Publications- 2% of citations recorded prior to 1970, 13% in the 1970s, 15% in the 1980s, 32% in the 1990s and 38% 2000-2009 (n=234) Disease resistance 39%, pest and disease resistance 17%, abiotic stress tolerance 13%, quality improvement 11% yield increase 10%, husbandry improvement 6%, cytoplasmic male sterility and fertility restorers 4% (Maxted & Kell 2009)
  24. 24. 2055 CWR are threatened Jarvis et al. 2008 Agric. Ecosys. Environ. 126: 13-23. 1950-2000
  25. 25. 25 Wild Pecos sunflower Helianthus paradoxusWild squash Cucurbita okeechobeensis subsp. okeechobeensis Scrub plum Prunus geniculataTexas wild rice Zizania texana Including in countries with strong conservation programs
  26. 26. Gather occurrence data Make collecting recommendations Model distributions Process data Determine gaps in collections Taxonomic Geographic Ecological Choose species or area 81 crop genepools 1076 crop wild relative taxa (close relatives) CWR gap analysis method
  27. 27. Crop Wild Relative Global Occurrence Database http://www.cwrdiversity.org/checklist/cwr-occurrences.php www.cwrdiversity.org
  28. 28. Distributions of the CWR of pigeonpea Khoury et al. 2015. Biological Conservation 184: 259-270.
  29. 29. Collecting priorities for the CWR of pigeonpea Khoury et al. 2015. Biological Conservation 184: 259-270.
  30. 30. Gaps in genebanks for CWR of pigeonpea Khoury et al. 2015. Biological Conservation 184: 259-270.
  31. 31. Distributions of CWR worldwide Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
  32. 32. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 High Medium Low No further collecting recommended 71.1% 13.8% 11% 4.2% Collecting priorities for CWR worldwide Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
  33. 33. Gaps in genebanks for CWR worldwide Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
  34. 34. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Number of high priority species (HPS) for collecting per country Australia’s got under-conserved CWR Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
  35. 35. Distributions of pigeonpea CWR in Australia Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
  36. 36. Distributions of rice CWR in Australia Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
  37. 37. Distributions of sorghum CWR in Australia Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
  38. 38. Distributions of soybean CWR in Australia Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
  39. 39. Distributions of CWR in Australia Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
  40. 40. Gaps in genebanks for Australian CWR Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
  41. 41. The clock is ticking https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22329772-500-australias-epic-scheme-to-farm-its-northern-wilds/#.VBMrW_ldUek
  42. 42. CWR resources
  43. 43. The “primary regions of diversity” of crops Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).
  44. 44. Estimating interdependence in plant genetic resources
  45. 45. “Primary regions of diversity” of crops International Potato Center (CIP)
  46. 46. High diversity in primary regions David Cavagnaro
  47. 47. The “primary regions of diversity” of crops Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).
  48. 48. Primary region of diversity of crops Production quantity (tonnes) Production quantity (%) Harvested area (ha) Harvested area (%) Production value current million US$) Production value (%) Calories (kcal/ capita/ day) Calories (%) Protein (g/ capita/ day) Protein (%) Fat (g/ capita/ day) Fat (%) Food weight (g/ capita/ day) Food weight (%) North America 1,919,723 0.9% 213,950 0.3% 1,309.7 2.1% 91.3 1.1% 0.2 0.2% 4.0 1.7% 90.7 2.2% Central America and Mexico 2,834,726 1.3% 482,965 0.6% 3,345.9 5.3% 261.0 3.3% 1.7 1.8% 23.9 10.4% 51.0 1.3% Caribbean 2,107,763 1.0% 322,539 0.4% 2,829.6 4.5% 62.7 0.8% 0.0 0.0% 7.1 3.1% 6.7 0.2% Andes 2,365,732 1.1% 717,305 1.0% 1,134.0 1.8% 96.7 1.2% 2.9 3.0% 0.3 0.1% 215.3 5.3% Tropical South America 2,443,372 1.1% 353,714 0.5% 3,139.7 5.0% 241.7 3.0% 1.8 1.9% 24.9 10.9% 61.7 1.5% Temperate South America 29,492 0.0% 1,596 0.0% 190.3 0.3% 1.0 0.0% 0.2 0.2% 0.0 0.0% 1.7 0.0% West Africa 2,517,561 1.1% 715,049 1.0% 573.3 0.9% 254.3 3.2% 3.4 3.6% 15.3 6.7% 63.7 1.6% Central Africa 2,403,161 1.1% 672,913 0.9% 480.3 0.8% 254.3 3.2% 3.4 3.6% 15.3 6.7% 63.7 1.6% East Africa 4,706,287 2.1% 1,331,976 1.8% 3,413.4 5.4% 137.7 1.7% 2.2 2.3% 12.3 5.4% 37.7 0.9% Southern Africa 4,481,502 2.0% 1,011,631 1.4% 3,348.8 5.3% 76.7 1.0% 0.9 0.9% 7.2 3.1% 11.0 0.3% Northwest Europe 1,690,784 0.8% 887,473 1.2% 926.2 1.5% 402.7 5.1% 0.2 0.2% 0.2 0.1% 179.3 4.4% Southwest Europe 4,081,897 1.9% 2,855,365 3.8% 2,317.3 3.7% 667.0 8.4% 0.9 1.0% 29.1 12.7% 216.7 5.4% Northeast Europe 1,690,784 0.8% 887,473 1.2% 926.2 1.5% 402.7 5.1% 0.2 0.2% 0.2 0.1% 179.3 4.4% Southeast Europe 4,230,784 1.9% 2,882,089 3.9% 2,585.1 4.1% 667.0 8.4% 0.9 1.0% 29.1 12.7% 216.7 5.4% South and East Mediterranean 38,202,056 17.4% 21,541,584 28.8% 10,277.9 16.3% 1377.3 17.3% 21.2 22.4% 31.7 13.8% 657.7 16.3% West Asia 41,284,897 18.8% 19,631,774 26.3% 10,384.3 16.5% 803.7 10.1% 21.7 22.9% 7.9 3.5% 560.7 13.9% Central Asia 38,135,583 17.4% 18,270,503 24.4% 8,978.6 14.3% 687.3 8.6% 19.8 20.9% 2.6 1.1% 528.7 13.1% South Asia 30,500,858 13.9% 1,132,309 1.5% 2,118.0 3.4% 539.0 6.8% 3.3 3.5% 2.7 1.2% 180.3 4.5% East Asia 3,425,034 1.6% 366,636 0.5% 2,606.4 4.1% 226.7 2.8% 2.7 2.9% 3.8 1.6% 252.3 6.3% Southeast Asia 29,870,111 13.6% 478,056 0.6% 1,867.2 3.0% 517.0 6.5% 2.5 2.6% 2.1 0.9% 172.0 4.3% Tropical Pacific Region 76,067 0.0% 3,636 0.0% 74.4 0.1% 17.0 0.2% 0.1 0.1% 1.8 0.8% 7.0 0.2% Not Specified 122,262 0.1% 22,042 0.0% 73.7 0.1% 180.7 2.3% 4.5 4.7% 7.7 3.4% 278.7 6.9% Primary regions of diversity of crops produced and/or consumed by Australia
  49. 49. Primary regions of diversity of crops produced by Australia
  50. 50. Primary regions of diversity of crops produced by Australia
  51. 51. Primary regions of diversity of crops produced by Australia
  52. 52. Primary regions of diversity of crops consumed by Australia
  53. 53. Primary regions of diversity of crops consumed by Australia
  54. 54. Primary regions of diversity of crops consumed by Australia
  55. 55. Primary regions of diversity of crops consumed by Australia
  56. 56. Calories
  57. 57. Calories
  58. 58. Calories
  59. 59. Calories
  60. 60. Calories
  61. 61. Calories
  62. 62. Calories
  63. 63. Calories
  64. 64. Calories
  65. 65. Calories
  66. 66. Calories Global interconnectedness with regard to primary regions of diversity of crops important in food supplies Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).
  67. 67. Australian national agricultural production - at least 99.9% comprised of crops whose primary regions are elsewhere on the planet, for all production variables Global average: 71.0% ± 1.8 for production quantity, 64.0% ± 2.2 for harvested area, and 72.9% ± 1.9 for production value Production quantity Degree of production per country of “foreign” crops
  68. 68. Calories Degree of consumption per country of “foreign” crops Australian national food supply - 91.8% - 100% of calories are from crops whose primary regions of diversity are elsewhere, 87.2% - 100% of protein, 89.8% - 100% of fat, and 81.1% to 100% of food weight Global average: 65.8% ± 1.8 for calories, 66.6% ± 2.1 for protein, 73.7% ± 1.6 for fat, and 68.7% ± 1.4 for food weight
  69. 69. Use of “foreign” crops has increased over time Production systemsFood supplies Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).
  70. 70. Australia benefits from foreign crop genetic diversity
  71. 71. Importance of crops and their coverage in the MLS Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).
  72. 72. Dietary diversity: Khoury et al. (2014) Increasing homogeneity in global food supplies and the implications for food security. PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006. Khoury & Jarvis (2014) The Changing Composition of the Global Diet: Implications for CGIAR Research. CIAT Policy Brief No. 18. Crop Wild Relatives: Khoury et al.(2015) Crop wild relatives of pigeonpea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp.]: distributions, ex situ conservation status, and potential genetic resources for abiotic stress tolerance. Biological Conservation 184: 259-270. Castañeda-Álvarez et al. (2016) Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22 Interdependence: Khoury et al. (2015) Estimation of Countries’ Interdependence in Plant Genetic Resources Provisioning National Food Supplies and Production Systems. International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO). Khoury et al. (2015) Where our Food Crops Come from: A new estimation of countries’ interdependence in plant genetic resources. CIAT Policy Brief No. 25. Thank you! c.khoury@cgiar.org

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