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Big- Data and Risk Management - Ido Lustig, PayPal

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Big- Data and Risk Management - Ido Lustig, PayPal

  1. 1. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. Big Data and Financial Risk Management December 1, 2014
  2. 2. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. at a glance 143M active accounts in nearly 200 countries 180B payment volume in 2013; ↑24% YoY 2B+ events/day 12 TB new data added per day 7.5M payments per day, 5,000 every minute 500K+ real time queries per second Less than 100ms average response time We are talking a lot of data …Big Data!
  3. 3. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. • Key dangers stated by experts (partial list): Buyer Fraud • Good account is taken over by fraudster (e.g., using phishing) • Identity theft (using a stolen credit-card in a new account) • There are not sufficient funds in the Bank Seller Fraud • Order never arrives/ merchants don’t send it • Product is significantly not what you ordered (e.g., picture of iPhone and not an iPhone…) There is also AUP, AML, terror-funding, etc.,… Risk/Fraud is regarded many times as a big threat to online/mobile commerce
  4. 4. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. • % of Transactions with fraudulent activity is very close to ZERO! • Well ahead of our competitors (traditional and start-up competitors) PayPal gives protection: • Full buyer/purchase protection (if the seller was fraudulent) • Full Seller protection for tangible goods • Global expansion to digital-goods/non-tangible Seller protection as well However, reality (at least with PayPal) is so much better…
  5. 5. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary.
  6. 6. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary.
  7. 7. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary.
  8. 8. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. Car…….. Pat….. Created: Aug 30, 2013 P… Tho… Legit PayPal user t0 $686.55 Al… Wo…. Created: Sep 3, 2013 t+1:03 min. $673.54 D… Mar… Legit PayPal user J… Smi… Legit PayPal user I… Le… Legit PayPal user Jam…….. Lo….. Created: Aug 30, 2013 Tom…….. Men….. Created: Aug 30, 2013 Alb…….. Rich….. Created: Aug 30, 2013 Fio… Jec…. Created: Sep 3, 2013 Don…….. Li….. Created: Aug 30, 2013 Anj…….. Por….. Created: Aug 30, 2013 t+0:23 min. $686.55 t+1:21 min. $686.55 t+1:47 min. $686.55 t+0:58 min. $686.55 t+0:35 min. $686.55 t+2:00 min. $686.55
  9. 9. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary.
  10. 10. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. Identity IP Phone num. Device Location Phone Name Email Connection Change IP Change num.
  11. 11. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. Identity IP Phone num. Change IP Change num. Name Email Location Phone Connection DeviceIP b-class IP whois IP geo Phone geo Phone type
  12. 12. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary.
  13. 13. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. Fraudsters are people like you and me, they also have habits Scaling attacks requires them to generate a lot of information
  14. 14. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. ana… para. pro… Premier - Mexican Verified borigita...@hotmail.com Time Created: Jun 20, 2013 10:24:26 Contact Information julion 8… huniero culiacan, Sinaloa 895932 Mexico Home: +52 5278…….9700808 Date of Birth: 1981 gab.. noc… sino… Premier - Mexican Verified e…lmxmx@hotmail.com Time Created: Jun 20, 2013 10:43:33 Contact Information culubire 8… amada culiacan, Sinaloa 49693 Mexico Home: +52 5374……9978989 Date of Birth: 1981 mor… ind… ca… Premier - Mexican Verified d…lxlx@hotmail.com Time Created: Jun 20, 2013 09:46:35 Contact Information poier 9… esdirre culiacan, Sinaloa 59879 Mexico Home: +52 52…..697998 Date of Birth: 1981 sir…. bon… pas…. Premier - Mexican Verified ju.…pxpx@hotmail.com Time Created: Jun 20, 2013 10:33:41 Contact Information camjutuli 4… indio culiacan, Sinaloa 43869 Mexico Home: +52 52……9798 Date of Birth: 1981 mar… sin… pit… Premier - Mexican Verified ci……pepe@hotmail.com Time Created: Jun 20, 2013 10:16:19 Contact Information esburgos 9…. pancho culiacan, Sinaloa 38692 Mexico Home: +52 527……9969798 Date of Birth: 1981 Behavioral patterns: • Jun 20, 2013 – Signup • Aug 10, 2013 – Added CC • Jan 11, 2014 – Confirmed CC Same actions, same dates! • Name pattern • Account type • Country • Email pattern • City • Date of birth
  15. 15. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 16 Input Generation Algorithm Execution Output Generation ~3 hour run-time Output: 26 week x 1M accounts 5 min per week Memory based (not MR) ~150k account a week ~15M account from the last two years
  16. 16. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary.
  17. 17. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. Merchant Industry in PayPal data is partial and incorrect 18 • Required only for business accounts • Incorrect user inputs (lying? / negligent?) Example 3 – Ambiguous categories: • Retail (not elsewhere classified)/Chemicals and allied products • Business/General • Hardware and Software Sells: ’Tickets’ Example 1: Declared: ‘Sports & Recreation/ General’ 18 Sells: ’Fashion’ Example 2: Declared: ‘Business to Business/Acc ounting’
  18. 18. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. True Industry 19 • An automated system for merchant website categorization: • Identifies seller websites using PayPal known URL’s • Crawls seller websites for terms and additional attributes • Categorizes sites to industry categories by applying statistical modeling • Training process is done offline based on examples to produce a predictive model
  19. 19. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. Category probability estimation example – “Travel” category 20 Random site scores from training set “Travel” site scores from training setFor each site, we estimate the probability of it belonging to each category given its weight
  20. 20. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 21 73% 91% 39% 84% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% PayPal and Agent True Industry True Industry Performance Accuracy Coverage
  21. 21. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. cost, speed data volume, accuracy Effective decision = func (accuracy, speed, cost) data age secondshoursyears Data in-motion Data in-use Tiered Big-Data strategy
  22. 22. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. Working HL Flow Crawler Crawler Manager URL list Crawled data Sellers’ Potential Details External Data source Queries API data Attributes output Common Infra THE WEB WEB SERVICES DB /FILES
  23. 23. © 2014 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. Thank You! Ido Lustig – ilustig@paypal.com

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