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Counterfactual
What would good regulation look like?
Global Forum on Nicotine
Warsaw
18 June 2016
www.clivebates.com
@cliv...
What would good regulation look like?
1. Do nothing
Snus ban: worst policy ever
Pointless meddling
Ban flavours to make a successful alternative to smoking less attractive
What would good regulation look like?
1. Do nothing
2. Set product standards
Standards for devices
Mechanical risks
Thermal risks
Chemical risks
Information
Standards for liquids
Liquid standards
Containers
Information
Testing protocol
What would good regulation look like?
1. Do nothing
2. Set product standards
3. Quality assurance
What would good regulation look like?
1. Do nothing
2. Set product standards
3. Quality assurance
4. Owners decide vaping ...
Thousands of micro-decisions
1. A bar wants to have a vape night every Thursday
2. A bar wants to dedicate one room where ...
Thousands of micro-decisions
1. A bar wants to have a vape night every Thursday
2. A bar wants to dedicate one room where ...
What would good regulation look like?
1. Do nothing
2. Set product standards
3. Quality assurance
4. Owners decide vaping ...
 Ensure your ads are socially responsible
 Don’t target, feature or appeal to children
 Don’t confuse e-cigarettes with...
What would good regulation look like?
1. Do nothing
2. Set product standards
3. Quality assurance
4. Owners decide vaping ...
Scare people away
Or encourage informed choice
This product is likely to
be at least 95% safer
than smoking cigarettes
No product is complet...
Tax
1. Do nothing
2. Set product standards
3. Quality assurance
4. Owners decide vaping policy
5. Allow advertising of adu...
Differentiate taxation according to risk
Adopt a risk based tax philosophy
Smoking
tobacco
Smoke
free
Appropriate rate for
e-cigarettes = zero
Tax rates for non-
c...
What would good regulation look like?
1. Do nothing
2. Set product standards
3. Quality assurance
4. Owners decide vaping ...
What would good regulation look like?
1. Do nothing
2. Set product standards
3. Quality assurance
4. Owners decide vaping ...
Innovation
What would good regulation look like
• “Do nothing” is superior to every regulatory scheme so far
• Regulation is there to...
www.clivebates.com
@clive_bates
Thank you…
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What would good regulation look like?

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Presentation to Global Forum on Nicotine 2017, in Warsaw, Poland.

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What would good regulation look like?

  1. 1. Counterfactual What would good regulation look like? Global Forum on Nicotine Warsaw 18 June 2016 www.clivebates.com @clive_bates
  2. 2. What would good regulation look like? 1. Do nothing
  3. 3. Snus ban: worst policy ever
  4. 4. Pointless meddling
  5. 5. Ban flavours to make a successful alternative to smoking less attractive
  6. 6. What would good regulation look like? 1. Do nothing 2. Set product standards
  7. 7. Standards for devices Mechanical risks Thermal risks Chemical risks Information
  8. 8. Standards for liquids Liquid standards Containers Information Testing protocol
  9. 9. What would good regulation look like? 1. Do nothing 2. Set product standards 3. Quality assurance
  10. 10. What would good regulation look like? 1. Do nothing 2. Set product standards 3. Quality assurance 4. Owners decide vaping policy
  11. 11. Thousands of micro-decisions 1. A bar wants to have a vape night every Thursday 2. A bar wants to dedicate one room where vaping is permitted 3. In a town with three bars, one decides it will cater for vapers, two decide they will not allow vaping 4. A bar manager decides on balance that his vaping customers prefer it and his other clientele are not that bothered – he’d do better allowing it 5. A hotel wants to allow vaping in its rooms and in its bar, but not in its restaurant, spa, and lobby 6. An office workplace decides to allow vaping breaks near the coffee machine to save on wasted smoking break time and encourage smokers to quit by switching 7. A care home wants to allow an indoor vaping area to encourage its smoking elderly residents to switch during the coming winter instead of going out in the cold 8. A vape shop is trying to help people switch from smoking and wants to demo products in the shop… 9. A shelter for homeless people allows it to make its clients welcome 10. A day centre for refugees allows it instead of smoking The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others.
  12. 12. Thousands of micro-decisions 1. A bar wants to have a vape night every Thursday 2. A bar wants to dedicate one room where vaping is permitted 3. In a town with three bars, one decides it will cater for vapers, two decide they will not allow vaping 4. A bar manager decides on balance that his vaping customers prefer it and his other clientele are not that bothered – he’d do better allowing it 5. A hotel wants to allow vaping in its rooms and in its bar, but not in its restaurant, spa, and lobby 6. An office workplace decides to allow vaping breaks near the coffee machine to save on wasted smoking break time and encourage smokers to quit by switching 7. A care home wants to allow an indoor vaping area to encourage its smoking elderly residents to switch during the coming winter instead of going out in the cold 8. A vape shop is trying to help people switch from smoking and wants to demo products in the shop… 9. A shelter for homeless people allows it to make its clients welcome 10. A day centre for refugees allows it instead of smoking
  13. 13. What would good regulation look like? 1. Do nothing 2. Set product standards 3. Quality assurance 4. Owners decide vaping policy 5. Allow advertising of adult product
  14. 14.  Ensure your ads are socially responsible  Don’t target, feature or appeal to children  Don’t confuse e-cigarettes with tobacco products  Don’t make health or safety claims  Don’t make smoking cessation claims  Ensure you don’t mislead about product ingredients  Don’t mislead about where products may be used
  15. 15. What would good regulation look like? 1. Do nothing 2. Set product standards 3. Quality assurance 4. Owners decide vaping policy 5. Allow advertising of adult product 6. Meaningful risk communication This product contains nicotine which is a highly addictive substance. It is not recommended for use by non-smokers
  16. 16. Scare people away
  17. 17. Or encourage informed choice This product is likely to be at least 95% safer than smoking cigarettes No product is completely safe, but use of this product is much less harmful than smoking
  18. 18. Tax 1. Do nothing 2. Set product standards 3. Quality assurance 4. Owners decide vaping policy 5. Allow advertising of adult product 6. Meaningful risk communication 7. Tax to reflect risk / no tax
  19. 19. Differentiate taxation according to risk
  20. 20. Adopt a risk based tax philosophy Smoking tobacco Smoke free Appropriate rate for e-cigarettes = zero Tax rates for non- combustible tobacco and nicotine should not spread too wide Substantial difference to reflect principle of proportionality and relative risk Narrowed range covering all combustible products Strong case for zero-rating all smoke-free nicotine & tobacco products
  21. 21. What would good regulation look like? 1. Do nothing 2. Set product standards 3. Quality assurance 4. Owners decide vaping policy 5. Allow advertising of adult product 6. Meaningful risk communication 7. Tax to reflect risk / no tax 8. Age restrictions
  22. 22. What would good regulation look like? 1. Do nothing 2. Set product standards 3. Quality assurance 4. Owners decide vaping policy 5. Allow advertising of adult product 6. Meaningful risk communication 7. Tax to reflect risk / no tax 8. Age restrictions
  23. 23. Innovation
  24. 24. What would good regulation look like • “Do nothing” is superior to every regulatory scheme so far • Regulation is there to benefit consumers not to please activists • Regulators should be haunted by unintended consequences • Regulation should focus on disease risk not ideological objectives • Regulation should promote informed choice and innovation • Proportionate and justifiable standards can help shape the market • Regulators should mostly get out of the way – the market is working
  25. 25. www.clivebates.com @clive_bates Thank you…

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