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Megatrends are gradual and deep-set
trajectories of change that will at some point
reshape the business
and policy environ...
MAY 2016
X
IBM offer cloud access
to a 5 qubit quantum
computer
Suggestions for
CLIENT X
Clinton den Heyer
Analyst
CAN WE MAKE SOME ACCURATE PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE
FUTURE OF GOVERNMENTS?
Probably not “accurate” ones, but lets have a go ba...
Problem:
What should we focus on?
The rate of ground breaking innovations in science and tech is
increasing. This indicate...
Current State
Monetary Political Scale
Global Spectrum
A combination of emerging forces
threaten to create a perfect storm...
Current State
Totalatarinism
North Korea
01
Emerging
Developing
03
Capatilism
US
05
Communism
China
02
Democratic
Social C...
crypto
currency
STOCK
EXCHANGE
Core Drivers by 2036 MEGA
TREND
2036
IoT
greenfintech p2p
GLOBAL
TRADE
TRANSPORT
ENERGY
aut...
Modular guidelines for competitive drivers
1. Value Orientated Architecture X
Strategy
DISRUPT
Technology
AUTOMATE
Operati...
2. Personal Security
Building blocks to a trusted
state of protection
1
5
2
4
3
5 step theorietical process toward the goa...
3. Green TransportTesla introduce the “Model T Ford” transport of the future. The disruptors get disrupted
2016 2016 2000 ...
4. Future State
North Korea
(Collapse)
2025
Emerging
(Growth)
2025
???
US
2018
China (Slowing)
Border reduction
2020
NZ
Ac...
Banks, Finance,
Insurance
2016 The ripest fruit available for disruption:
As the tech companies are about to take over
the...
c_den_heyer@hotmail.com
nz.linkedin.com/in/clintondenheyer
clinton den heyer
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Client X Presentation 2 july 2016

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I read that no one can predict the future and that this fact alone makes it a worthwhile endeavor. The simple act of trying to predict the future made future predictions much better at making estimated guesses over time than those who did not. It's a low-risk proposition regardless, people don't necessarily remember and its such a fun game to play. That said when it comes to consulting I do the research. This process is something that Elon Musk refers to as the "Recursive Y." We know X is going to happen, we can therefore afford to be liberal with our predictions on the Y. Macro economics is complex and hard to predict after all.

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Client X Presentation 2 july 2016

  1. 1. Megatrends are gradual and deep-set trajectories of change that will at some point reshape the business and policy environment. They typically have a decadal timeframe (e.g. 10-20 years) and occur at the intersection of multiple trends.
  2. 2. MAY 2016 X IBM offer cloud access to a 5 qubit quantum computer Suggestions for CLIENT X Clinton den Heyer Analyst
  3. 3. CAN WE MAKE SOME ACCURATE PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF GOVERNMENTS? Probably not “accurate” ones, but lets have a go based on movements in technology.
  4. 4. Problem: What should we focus on? The rate of ground breaking innovations in science and tech is increasing. This indicates that we are now aware of the next megatrends. While highly speculative, research indicates seven core drivers that deserve closer inspection and the industries they are likely to effect. Two terms define time, scope and potential impact: Short Term. A Pure Play Disruption tends to impact an industry by 30% and establish globally between 1 to 5 years. Long Term. A Megatrend may develop gradually, in time reshaping the dynamics of the business and policy environment. Global shapers 5 to 20 years cadence.
  5. 5. Current State Monetary Political Scale Global Spectrum A combination of emerging forces threaten to create a perfect storm of larger, faster and seemingly sci-fi technology impacts. This presents complexity of a scale that economies have never been exposed to. It appears that the lessons of the past may not be transferable to the challenges of the future.
  6. 6. Current State Totalatarinism North Korea 01 Emerging Developing 03 Capatilism US 05 Communism China 02 Democratic Social Capatilism NZ 04 Austrian/Libertarian Europe 06 Monetary Political Scale
  7. 7. crypto currency STOCK EXCHANGE Core Drivers by 2036 MEGA TREND 2036 IoT greenfintech p2p GLOBAL TRADE TRANSPORT ENERGY automation SUPPLY CHAINS ALL CORE DRIVERS FINANCE & BANKING Workforce Short term: Baby boomers exiting Medium: Low Millennial entrance Long: Gen X’iting Developing economies unable to support skills Expertise Medium: IT skills shortage and increased demand drive up industry wage rates creating a strong business case for robotics, AI and automation. Business Will process automation, smart contracts and green energy offset loses posed by potential increases in unemployment? Government What impacts will green energy have on property ownership? Will business efficiencies gained offset potential taxation losses? Is legislation agile enough to deal with rapid change? Unique conditions emerging with areas of impact unemployment MONETARY SYSTEMS TREND 2016 PURE PLAY DISRUPTO R 2020
  8. 8. Modular guidelines for competitive drivers 1. Value Orientated Architecture X Strategy DISRUPT Technology AUTOMATE Operations ALIGN People ADVOCATE Continuous Innovation 5. Actualisation 4. Agile Borders 3. 360 Value Creation 2. Continuous Learning 1. Identification of Core Values
  9. 9. 2. Personal Security Building blocks to a trusted state of protection 1 5 2 4 3 5 step theorietical process toward the goal of “back of mind” personal identification. Internet security is complex. Given that personal identification is one of the largest in IT it will require a large, possibly complex, graduated solution strategy PERSONAL BLOCKCHAIN In compliment of, or to gradually replace, RealMe, a decentralized network of a partially permissioned blockchain could provide an initial “safer” state. TIME STAMP RANDOM IDENTIFIER There are numerous world clocks other than time zones. A “tumbler” is a tool which can allocate nodes of a blockchain to a “tumbled” identification tool. Internet clocks calculate network protocols to a millionith of a second. IPV6 will have to increase this. NEXUS IDENTIFICATION THEORY: Nexus have created an app that can map rooms. Heat identifiers and infared trackers are commercially available. If partial permissioned blockchain credibility is established a personal chain can enable unique gait identifiers to “recognise.” PROJECT “SOLI” TESTING: Google is currently testing a camera that can “recognise” physical movements. The future of screenless interactive devices has started, and this may create opportunities in innovation for personal identification. QUANTUM & ORGANIC MARKET TESTING: IBM and Google have Quantum computers in testing and development. Quantum states enable data recognition through vast heat maps. They operate in Qubits, which can be either 1, or 2, or 1 and 2 simultaneously.
  10. 10. 3. Green TransportTesla introduce the “Model T Ford” transport of the future. The disruptors get disrupted 2016 2016 2000 2022 20252014 Elon Musks “Tesla” sells 300,000 cars in 2 weeks prompting international legislation change. Japan now has more electric filling stations than petroleum stations. Uber negotiate a deal with NZ Govt. To enter NZ Taxi market. Take advantage of Companies Act to ensure minimal employees – the “courier” model. PREDICTED: Driverless/Electric Cars will no longer be a popular talking point at Sunday BBQs. We will all know of someone that has one. The NZ Hearld films a “Tesla” driving itself over the Auckland Harbour bridge. No one notices. Google start testing a device to attach into petrol cars for driverless use SPECULATIVE: Uber? Who is Uber? Public transport as we know it will be disrupted /collapse. Fleets of modular vechicles will reduce commute. Industry will conglomoritize. Domestic flights will be imnpacted. Companies will form aroud the proposition that driverless electric cars can run 24/7. Location and automated CRMs will text customers pick up times and email employers.
  11. 11. 4. Future State North Korea (Collapse) 2025 Emerging (Growth) 2025 ??? US 2018 China (Slowing) Border reduction 2020 NZ Accelerated Partial Privatisation 2023 Europe (Solid Growth – increased prosperity) 2025 Suggested Options for Monetary/Political/Economic Development
  12. 12. Banks, Finance, Insurance 2016 The ripest fruit available for disruption: As the tech companies are about to take over the transport industry, so to will they dominate the monetary system. Banks will have to diversify into new markets. ASB will compete with Amazon and Google.What next? Analysis of abc.xyz: Google’s roll out strategy includes internet services globally and all renewable energy. The company that has mapped Earth, The Moon and Mars now has its sights firmly set on The Sun. What are the implications for Government? 01 Introduction to Digital A digital currency may be introduced that pays for goods and services that benefit Govt and community. 02 Accelerate Partial Privitization Medical/Police/almost all services: Partial privatization models allow for efficiencies and gradually move from tax reliance to income. NZ has been moving this way since the 80’s. 03 Regional Currencies Regions may compete for competitive advantage and private investment through the introduction of potentially public listed currencies. 04 Sector Private sector currency creation. Potential for confusion and disaggregation short term, stabilization and financial independence long term. 05 Community Communities may create strategic alliances with communities in other countries stabilizing trade and international relationships. 4. Future State Suggested Options for Monetary/Political/Economic Development
  13. 13. c_den_heyer@hotmail.com nz.linkedin.com/in/clintondenheyer clinton den heyer

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