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Oceans, Carbon, and the Mother of all Assumptions

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Presentation by Pedro Monteiro at the Inspiring Change Gathering in Cape Town, South Africa on 18 November 2011. www.climatesmartcapetown.co.za/events/inspiringchange

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Oceans, Carbon, and the Mother of all Assumptions

  1. 1. Pedro MS MonteiroCSIR, Rosebank
  2. 2. How the Planet Breathes
  3. 3. Tropical Eastern Domain 2b: Atlantic Tropical Western Indian Domain 3: Southern OceansAdvective andverticalfeedbacks toglobal system Southern African Regional Earth System
  4. 4. TWO ASSUMPTIONS• Natural ocean fluxes of CO2 will remain unchanged• We can reduce atmospheric CO2 to 350ppm within a century
  5. 5. Fate of Global Emissions of CO2 GtC y-1
  6. 6. Global Carbon Budget (2000-2005) (PgC y-1) Global Carbon Project 2006
  7. 7. Southern Ocean is the only connection between38000 GtC Deep Ocean CO2 and atmosphere Rintoul et al., 2009
  8. 8. Dan Costa, UCSC, USAAre things changing?
  9. 9. Atmospheric750 ppmCO2 Lifetime of Fossil Fuel CO2550 ppmCO2 350 ppm CO2 Land Ocean275 ppm Biosphere BiosphereCO2 100 1000 10,000 years years years
  10. 10. Atmospheric750 ppmCO2 Lifetime of Fossil Fuel CO2550 ppmCO2 350 ppm CO2 Land Ocean275 ppm Biosphere BiosphereCO2 100 1000 10,000 years years years
  11. 11. CRISISOPPORTUNITY
  12. 12. CAPE TOWN:COSMOPOLITAN SA CENTREKNOWLEDGE & INNOVATION(CLIMATE – CARBON)
  13. 13. Centre for High Performance Computing: RosebankSA Agulhas II: in Cape Town April 2012 Centre for Ocean Observations Robotics and Sensor R&D: V&A
  14. 14. New GenerationScientists and EngineersImaginative Innovation
  15. 15. SA - Integrated Carbon Observatory Network (SA-ICON) 3.00 Cape Point CO2 - Cape TownDifference Cape Town CO2 - Background CO2 ppm 2.50 Influence 2.00 1.50 1.00 Cape Town metro pilot 0.50 study Jan-97 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Date 0.00
  16. 16. Tropical Eastern Tropical Atlantic Western Indian Southern Oceans
  17. 17. V urgent action <450ppm InnovativeDevelopmentOpportunities Cape Town

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