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The emergence of Web3D

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The emergence of Web3D

  1. 1. April 25, 2008 The Emergence Of Web3D Erica Driver Principal Analyst Forrester Research
  2. 2. Theme Interactivity + immersion = engagement, and Web3D will deliver in five to seven years time.
  3. 3. Agenda <ul><li>What is Web3D? </li></ul><ul><li>Web3D drivers </li></ul><ul><li>We will work very differently in five to seven years. </li></ul><ul><li>How we think it will all play out </li></ul><ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul>
  4. 4. Agenda <ul><li>What is Web3D? </li></ul><ul><li>Web3D drivers </li></ul><ul><li>We will work very differently in five to seven years. </li></ul><ul><li>How we think it will all play out </li></ul><ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul>
  5. 5. A simplified explanation of Web3D Private network Avatar Serious games Virtual worlds Immersive workspaces Source: Second Life (http://secondlife.com/); Virtual Heroes (http://www.virtualheroes.com/) Internet
  6. 6. Forrester’s definition of Web3D <ul><li>System of linked interactive 3-D and 2-D environments </li></ul><ul><li>People will be able to move among these environments in a seamless, natural way. </li></ul><ul><li>Will deliver an interactive, immersive experience </li></ul><ul><li>People will be represented visually by avatars that can move in space and communicate with others. </li></ul><ul><li>Will integrate with Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 tools and technologies as well as business software apps </li></ul>The next major wave in the Internet’s evolution
  7. 7. Agenda <ul><li>What is Web3D? </li></ul><ul><li>Web3D drivers </li></ul><ul><li>We will work very differently in five to seven years. </li></ul><ul><li>How we think it will all play out </li></ul><ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul>
  8. 8. What’s propelling Web3D forward? <ul><li>Relentless focus on innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Rising expectations due to Technology Populism and Social Computing </li></ul><ul><li>A changing workforce that requires a technology refresh </li></ul><ul><li>Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity </li></ul><ul><li>Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones </li></ul>
  9. 9. Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity <ul><li>$1.5 billion invested in virtual world companies in five quarters from Q4 2006-Q4 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Early adopters: BP, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Michelin </li></ul>
  10. 10. Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones Source: Parvati Dev, W. LeRoy Heinrichs, Laura Kusumuto, and Patricia Youngblood, “ Virtual Worlds and Team Training,” Anesthesiology Clinics, Volume 25 , Issue 2 Mean student scores Pre-test and post-test student scores
  11. 11. Agenda <ul><li>What is Web3D? </li></ul><ul><li>Web3D drivers </li></ul><ul><li>We will work very differently in five to seven years. </li></ul><ul><li>How we think it will all play out </li></ul><ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul>
  12. 12. Teach, learn, and practice in a way that feels “real” Source: Virtual Heroes Training medical students and professionals
  13. 13. Use new methods to teach complex concepts Source: Michelin Group enterprise architecture island in Second Life Teaching enterprise architects how to build road maps
  14. 14. Collaborate on information in new ways Source: Gus Rosania, PhD; University of Michigan College of Pharmacy Analyzing complex data for drug discovery process 8 images 24 meters 36 meters 12 images
  15. 15. Interact with colleagues in virtual workspaces Attending a conference “in-world” Source: snapshot taken in a Multiverse session during Life 2.0 conference
  16. 16. Build or import and share 3-D designs and models Source: Flickr, Studio Wikitecture (http://www.flickr.com/photos/studiowikitecture) Studio Wikitecture: collaborative architecture
  17. 17. Manage projects in bottom-up ways Source: Flickr, Claudia Linden (http://www.flickr.com/photos/claudialinden/2106802302/) Studio Wikitecture’s wiki tree
  18. 18. Transform presentations into tours Source: Palomar West island in Second Life (http://www.pph.org/media.aspx?news=196) Hospital of the future: Palomar West
  19. 19. Manage complex real-world systems remotely Source: EOLUS One island in Second Life Implenia facilities operations center
  20. 20. Agenda <ul><li>What is Web3D? </li></ul><ul><li>Web3D drivers </li></ul><ul><li>We will work very differently in five to seven years. </li></ul><ul><li>How we think it will all play out </li></ul><ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul>
  21. 21. Evolution of the multidimensional Web Immersive Interactive Static Text UI Basic graphical UI Rich, interactive graphical UI 3-D digital experience Hybrid virtual/real-world experience Pre-Web Internet World Wide Web Web 2.0 Web3D WebXD Interactivity Richness of user experience
  22. 22. Today (2008) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors <ul><li>Dozens of vendors </li></ul><ul><li>Few virtual worlds used for work open to the public </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of standards </li></ul><ul><li>A few virtual worlds support standard 3-D content creation tools. </li></ul><ul><li>Dearth of easy to use 3-D content creation tools </li></ul><ul><li>Little integration with business software applications </li></ul><ul><li>Serious games in use </li></ul><ul><li>Early-stage experimentation in businesses for team collaboration, meetings, conferences, recruiting </li></ul><ul><li>Ease of content creation </li></ul><ul><li>Troublesome interfaces and poor avatar control mechanisms </li></ul><ul><li>Inability to use content in whichever virtual environment you want </li></ul><ul><li>Embedded IP protection for copy, transfer, and modify </li></ul><ul><li>Computers with inadequate graphics cards, processing power </li></ul><ul><li>Corporate IT security policies may restrict access to Web3D until implications are better understood. </li></ul>
  23. 23. In three to four years (2011–2012) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors <ul><li>100s or 1,000s of tech vendors selling Web3D solutions or SaaS </li></ul><ul><li>Lots of open source projects focusing on various technical components </li></ul><ul><li>Intensive experimentation </li></ul><ul><li>Examples emerge of enterprisewide rollouts </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative control devices and interfaces available </li></ul><ul><li>Shift in perception of immersive workspaces, serious games, and virtual worlds </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of widely adopted standards resulting in continued lack of interoperability </li></ul><ul><li>New and improved interface components and control metaphors still not common </li></ul><ul><li>Fuzziness about IP rights for objects people create </li></ul><ul><li>Inability to prevent violations of IP rules through technical means </li></ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul>
  24. 24. In five to seven years (2013–2015) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors <ul><li>Market has thinned out — just a handful of technology vendors identified as leaders </li></ul><ul><li>Standards widely adopted </li></ul><ul><li>People can access multiple 3-D sites, virtual worlds, serious games, and other applications with a single avatar. </li></ul><ul><li>Web3D sites and apps commonplace </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative organizations achieve breakthrough competitive advantage </li></ul><ul><li>Control metaphor enables seamless usage of Web3D as it becomes a vital business tool </li></ul><ul><li>Identity: impersonation, identity theft </li></ul><ul><li>Governance: Who rules and polices a virtual world? How do taxes work in a global virtual world? How about employment law and dispute resolution? </li></ul>
  25. 25. Next-generation interface devices Hillcrest Labs Freespace “The Loop” Source: Hillcrest Labs Logitech MX Air Rechargeable Cordless Air Mouse Source: Logitech Source: Seeing Machines Seeing Machines faceLAB
  26. 26. Agenda <ul><li>What is Web3D? </li></ul><ul><li>Web3D drivers </li></ul><ul><li>We will work very differently in five to seven years. </li></ul><ul><li>How we think it will all play out </li></ul><ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul>
  27. 27. Recommendations (1:2) <ul><li>Apply Web3D concepts to innovation strategies. </li></ul><ul><li>Experiment with Web3D in areas like training and simulation or collaboration. </li></ul><ul><li>Conduct internal Web3D workshops and seminars. </li></ul><ul><li>Include Web3D in revised Web 2.0 policies. </li></ul>
  28. 28. Recommendations (2:2) <ul><li>Develop Information Workplace strategies that include Web3D concepts. </li></ul><ul><li>Work with infrastructure and operations to upgrade your hardware and the network. </li></ul><ul><li>Talk now with Security & Risk professionals to understand their concerns. </li></ul><ul><li>Grill the vendors on their interoperability strategy. </li></ul><ul><li>Join industry consortia to network and learn more. </li></ul>
  29. 29. Thank you Erica Driver +1 401.592.0170 [email_address] www.forrester.com Blog: http://blogs.forrester.com/information_management/

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