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De los datos a las predicciones

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Vídeo de la charla: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ae1X8E2fc4E.

Presentación usada en el Webinar del BBVA InnovaChallenge Data Week de abril de 2015.

Cómo es el proceso de creación de un modelo predictivo en el sector hotelero.

Published in: Data & Analytics
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De los datos a las predicciones

  1. 1. Machine Learning en el mundo real De los Datos a las Predicciones Un caso práctico del sector turístico Andrés González Responsable Área Big Data andresg@clevertask.com Twitter: @data_lytics
  2. 2. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 2 Agenda Necesidad de negocio1 “Cocinar” la predicción2 Recogida de ingredientes3 Limpieza y Transformaciones4 La receta (el modelo)5 Probar el plato6
  3. 3. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 3 Agenda Necesidad de negocio1 “Cocinar” la predicción2 Recogida de ingredientes3 Limpieza y Transformaciones4 La receta (el modelo)5 Probar el plato6
  4. 4. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 4 Sector hotelero • % ocupación de hoteles. • Riesgo de cancelación de reservas. • Ingresos.
  5. 5. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 5 Necesidad de negocio Predecir la NACIONALIDAD de los clientes ANTES de llegar al hotel
  6. 6. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 6 Organizar el personal Idiomas
  7. 7. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 7 Preparar actividades
  8. 8. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 8 Organizar las cocinas
  9. 9. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 9 Personalizar la estancia
  10. 10. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 10 … los detalles marcan la diferencia En definitiva, porque…
  11. 11. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 11 Agenda Necesidad de negocio1 “Cocinar” la predicción2 Recogida de ingredientes3 Limpieza y Transformaciones4 La receta (el modelo)5 Probar el plato6
  12. 12. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 12 Machine Learning básico
  13. 13. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 13 Machine Learning básico ¿Puedes encontrar patrones en estos datos?
  14. 14. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 14 Machine Learning básico Datos históricos Entrenamiento Predicción Nuevos datos Re-entrenamiento
  15. 15. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 15 “Cocinar” la predicción2 Ir al mercado a por los ingredientes Limpiarlos Transformarlos Cocinar Probar el plato
  16. 16. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 16 “Cocinar” la predicción2 Ir al mercado a por los ingredientes Limpiarlos Transformarlos Cocinar Probar el plato Recogida de Datos en “crudo” Limpieza de Datos Transformación y Feature Engineering Aprendizaje y Entrenamiento del Modelo Evaluación de calidad de las predicciones
  17. 17. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 17 Agenda Necesidad de negocio1 “Cocinar” la predicción2 Recogida de ingredientes3 Limpieza y Transformaciones4 La receta (el modelo)5 Probar el plato6
  18. 18. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 18 De dónde vienen los datos Web propia Webs de Partners Datos en crudo RAW
  19. 19. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 19 Datos RAW Fichero .xlsx con histórico de 1 año de reservas Un registro por cada reserva Características •260.000 reservas •80 campos •57 categóricos •9 numéricos •10 tipo fecha •3 tipo texto •1 campo erróneo •Tamaño: 150 MB
  20. 20. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 20 Datos RAW
  21. 21. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 21 Agenda Necesidad de negocio1 “Cocinar” la predicción2 Recogida de ingredientes3 Limpieza y Transformaciones4 La receta (el modelo)5 Probar el plato6
  22. 22. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 22 Proceso Datos en crudo Nuevos campos 1 3 4 Datos RAW Transforma y Feature Engineering Datos limpios Campos calculados 2 Limpieza Modelo
  23. 23. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 23 Limpieza de datos
  24. 24. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 24 Limpieza de datos Borrado de filas • Reservas sin check-in • Reservas canceladas • Registros con errores Borrado de columnas • Identificadores vs nombres • Columnas con pocos datos Otras acciones • Dar formato a las fechas • Eliminar acentos • Transformar de .xlsx a .csv
  25. 25. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 25 Dataset limpio Limpio •150.000 reservas •46 campos •26 categóricos •9 numéricos •10 tipo fecha •1 tipo texto •Tamaño: 75MB Sucio •260.000 reservas •80 campos •57 categóricos •9 numéricos •10 tipo fecha •3 tipo texto •1 campo erróneo •Tamaño: 150 MB
  26. 26. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 26 Proceso Datos en crudo Nuevos campos 1 3 4 Datos RAW Transformaciones y Feature Engineering Datos limpios Campos calculados 2 Limpieza Modelo
  27. 27. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 27 Transformaciones Agrupación de países •Muchos países a predecir (210) •Algunos países tienen muy pocas instancias •Objetivo de cada agrupación: mín. 1% del total de instancias •Total grupos: 20 Nuevos campos • ANTELACIÓN_RESERVA (calculado): fecha reserva-fecha entrada • PAIS_HOTEL (nombre de país) • ESTRELLAS_HOTEL (1-5)
  28. 28. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 28 Dataset limpio Limpio •150.000 reservas •46 campos •Tamaño: 75MB Sucio •260.000 reservas •80 campos •Tamaño: 150 MB Transformado •150.000 registros •49 campos •Tamaño: 80MB
  29. 29. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 29 Qué es Feature Engineering Extraer la señal del ruido
  30. 30. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 30 Técnicas de Feature Engineering • Detectar los campos (features) que son predictores (señal) y eliminar los que no (ruido) • Campos dependientes (pax, días, pax*días) • Campos supérfluos (número de reserva) • Campos con pocos datos • Campos aleatorios (minuto y segundo de la reserva) • Conocimiento del sector • Experiencia • Ciclo recursivo
  31. 31. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 31 Recursive Feature Engineering
  32. 32. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 32 Dataset limpio Limpio •150.000 reservas •46 campos •Tamaño: 75MB Sucio •260.000 reservas •80 campos •Tamaño: 150 MB Transformado •150.000 registros •49 campos •Tamaño: 80MB Dataset Final •150.000 registros •10 campos •7 categóricos •2 numéricos •1 fecha •Tamaño: 55MB
  33. 33. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 33 Agenda Necesidad de negocio1 “Cocinar” la predicción2 Recogida de ingredientes3 Limpieza y Transformaciones4 La receta (el modelo)5 Probar el plato6
  34. 34. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 34 Proceso Datos en crudo Nuevos campos 1 3 4 Datos RAW Transformaciones y Feature Engineering Datos limpios Campos calculados 2 Limpieza Modelo
  35. 35. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 35 Modelo Entrenamiento Aprendizaje
  36. 36. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 36 Modelo
  37. 37. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 37 Agenda Necesidad de negocio1 “Cocinar” la predicción2 Recogida de ingredientes3 Limpieza y Transformaciones4 La receta (el modelo)5 Probar el plato6
  38. 38. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 38 Calidad del modelo
  39. 39. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 39 Calidad del modelo 80% 20% Evaluación Training Test Dataset 100% Modelo
  40. 40. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 40 Calidad del modelo Tasa de acierto Matriz de confusión
  41. 41. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 41 Calidad del modelo 54% 75%
  42. 42. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 42 Ir al mercado a por los ingredientes Limpiarlos Transformarlos Cocinar Probar el plato Recogida de Datos en “crudo” (RAW) Limpieza de Datos Transformación y Feature Engineering Aprendizaje y Entrenamiento del Modelo Evaluación de calidad de las predicciones Cocinar una predicción 80% 20%
  43. 43. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 43 Otras técnicas Ensembles Clústers Análisis de pesos Detección de anomalías
  44. 44. CleverTask Solutions SL - Big Data Business Unit 44 FIN email: andresg@clevertask.com Twitter: @data_lytics www.clevertask.com 10 suscripciones PRO gratuitas de 3 meses ($900) Código: BBVADATAWEEK

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