Published on

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide


  1. 1. 200 years of economichistory and how I ruinedthe worldStewart Cowley, Head of Fixed Income
  2. 2. 200 years of health and wealthHealth 75 1960 1918 40 $400 Wealth $40,000 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  3. 3. How I ruined the world“Just unpleasant…” Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  4. 4. 1960 1965 1972 1977 1987 2011 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  5. 5. Global reserves$10 trillion East Asia and Pacific $5.5trillion Japan $1trillion Middle East $1trillion US $0.5trillionData source: The IMF Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  6. 6. Global imbalances5,000 Developing national reserves3,0001,000-1,000-3,000-5,000 US Treasury borrowing-7,000-9,000Source: Bloomberg Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  7. 7. 200 years of health and wealthHealth 75 40 $400 Wealth $40,000Source: UN Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  8. 8. Global Over-Eaters Index Daily Calories/2,245 1960 2008 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.4Source: UN Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  9. 9. Calorie-in-take and Income Calorie in-take WealthSource: UN Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  10. 10. The carbon blipReserves Known reserves Time Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  11. 11. Cars sold in China and US each yearMillions2015 China10 US 5 2005 2007 2009Source: Bloomberg Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  12. 12. Internet usage over last 20 years 75% 68% 24% 8%Source: UN Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  13. 13. Annual Australian coal exports to ChinaMillions tonnes80,00060,00040,00020,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: Bloomberg Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  14. 14. Alternative energy usage over last 50 years 39% 43% 4% 18% 6% 15% 1% 11% 0% 3% ME ME 0% 1%Source: UN Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  15. 15. Gold 1oz 15Source: UN Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  16. 16. Gold and oilUS$/barrel140 If you think oil is going to $150100 then…. 60 Gold will be 20 15 x 150 = $2,250 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009Source: Datastream Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  17. 17. Strategic conclusions Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  18. 18. The global trend Embrace deficittowards health reducersand wealth ishaving profound Avoid deficiteffects creatorsEmbrace Embracecompanies at commodity“pinch points” in currencies –the supply chain inflation is coming Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  19. 19. Portfolio conclusions Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  20. 20. Government Buy commodity-bonds – look to related create a currencies negative Avoid financially duration one unstable day countries Buy “higher” yielding corporate bonds with inflation-plus yields Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  21. 21. ConclusionsWe face some very large challenges going forwardProtecting the real value of our clients’ money is goingto be of utmost importanceWe are going to need all the tools we can find tomanage our way through Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  22. 22. Important informationFor professional clients only. This information is being communicated only to persons who have professional experiencein matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FinancialPromotion) Order 2001, as amended (the Order) and to persons to whom it may otherwise be lawful to communicate it to (allsuch persons being referred to as relevant persons). Other persons should not rely or act upon this document or any of itscontents. The recipient should not use the information in this document in any way which would constitute market abuse.This document does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or subscription of, orsolicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied onin connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will bemade by OMAM, its advisors or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinionscontained in this document and any reliance you place on them will be at your sole risk. Please remember that the value ofan investment and the income from it can go down as well as up and that you may not get back the full amount invested.Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Exchange rate fluctuations can affect both capital and incomevalues.Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK) Ltd is the appointed Investment Manager to the Fund. Issued by Old Mutual AssetManagers (UK) Limited, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4P 4WR, UK. Registered in England No. 2949554. Authorised andregulated by the Financial Services Authority. Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)