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  1. 1. 200 years of economichistory and how I ruinedthe worldStewart Cowley, Head of Fixed Income
  2. 2. Wide duration Can hold range – currenciesboth positive outside the fundand negative base or not Can hold up to 50% in corporate bonds or not2
  3. 3. 200 years of health and wealthHealth 75 1960 40 $400 1918 Wealth $40,000Source: UN3
  4. 4. 1960 1965 1972 1977 1987 20114
  5. 5. Global reserves$10 trillion East Asia and Pacific $5.5trillion Japan $1trillion Middle East $1trillion US $0.5trillionSource: IMF5
  6. 6. Global imbalances5,000 Developing national reserves3,0001,000-1,000-3,000-5,000 US Treasury borrowing-7,000-9,000Source: Bloomberg6
  7. 7. 200 years of health and wealthHealth 75 40 $400 Wealth $40,000Source: UN7
  8. 8. 200 years of health and wealthHealth 75 40 $400 Wealth $40,000Source: UN8
  9. 9. Global Over-Eaters Index Daily Calories/2,245 1960 2008 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.49 Source: UN
  10. 10. Calorie-in-take and Income10 Source: UN
  11. 11. The carbon blipReserves Known reserves Time11
  12. 12. Cars sold in China and US each yearMillions2015 China10 US 5 2005 2007 200912 Source: Bloomberg
  13. 13. Internet usage over last 20 years 75% 68% 24% 8%Source: UN13 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  14. 14. Annual Australian coal exports to ChinaMillions tonnes80,00060,00040,00020,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: Bloomberg14
  15. 15. Alternative energy usage over last 50 years 39% 43% 4% 18% 6% 15% 1% 11% 0% 3% M M E 0% E 1%15 Source: UN Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  16. 16. Gold 1oz 15Source: UN16 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  17. 17. Gold and oilUS$/barrel140 If you think oil is going to $150100 then….60 Gold will be20 15 x 150 = $2,250 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009Source: Datastream17 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  18. 18. Strategic conclusions18 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  19. 19. The global trend Embrace deficittowards health reducersand wealth ishaving profound Avoid deficiteffects creatorsEmbrace Embracecompanies at commodity“pinch points” in currencies –the supply chain inflation is coming19 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  20. 20. Portfolio conclusions20 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  21. 21. Avoid Buy Australian government Dollar, Canadianbonds – create dollar, South a negative African Rand. duration Avoid the US dollar Buy companies with low gearing and unique product placements 21
  22. 22. Duration1.5 Preparing for yields0.5 to rise….-0.5-1.5-2.5 US Euro UK Corporate Total duration -3.4Source: OMAM, 23/05/1122 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  23. 23. Currency Preparing for the US dollar to fall… USD Euro Commodity UK Other Building euro and commodity currency positionsSource: OMAM, 23/05/1123 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)
  24. 24. ConclusionsWe face some very large challenges going forwardsProtecting our clients’ money is going to be of utmostimportanceWe are going to need all the tools we can find tomanage our way through
  25. 25. Important informationThis investment presentation is for professional clients only and is not to be distributed to or relied upon by private investors.This information is being communicated only to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article19(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001, as amended (the Order) and to persons to whom it mayotherwise be lawful to communicate it to (all such persons being referred to as relevant persons). Other persons should not rely or act upon thisdocument or any of its contents. The recipient should not use the information in this document in any way which would constitute market abuse.OMAM has no house market view and opinions expressed are the views of individual fund manager(s) as at the time of writing. Information andopinions have been compiled or arrived at by Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK) Limited (OMAM) from sources believed to be reliable, but neitherOMAM nor Old Mutual Fund Managers Limited (OMFM) accepts liability for any loss arising from the use hereof nor makes any representation as totheir accuracy or completeness. Any underlying research or analysis has been procured by OMAM for its own purposes and may have been actedon by OMAM or an associate for its or their own purposes.This document does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer tobuy or subscribe for, any securities nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitmentwhatsoever. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made by OMAM, its advisors or any other person as to the accuracy,completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this document and any reliance you place on them will be at your sole risk. TheCompany: Old Mutual Dublin Funds plc, 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland. The Company is an Irish law umbrella UCITS authorised by the IrishFinancial Regulator. This fund is authorised by the Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority and is registered for distribution in UK, Sweden,France and Switzerland.Issued by Old Mutual Asset Managers (OMAM), the trading name of Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK) Limited and Old Mutual Fund ManagersLimited. Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK) Limited, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4P 4WR, England. Registered in England No. 2949554. Authorised andregulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. Telephone calls may be recorded for security purposes and to improve our customer service.U5824/05/1125