Klaus kaldemorgen


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Klaus kaldemorgen

  1. 1. Toomuchpain - littlegain<br />Klaus Kaldemorgen, 07 June 2011<br />
  2. 2. 1<br />Credit crunch<br />Asia crisis Sep 1997 – Feb 1998<br />Market crash October 1987<br />In USD<br />Index points<br />In USD<br />Index points<br />In USD<br />Index points<br />- 60%<br />- 35%<br />- 85%<br />1987<br />1989 - 1992<br />1997 - 1998<br />2000<br />2008<br />I. Risk aversion by retail investors remains Retail investors are unnerved by sharp setbacks in equity markets<br />Tech bubble<br />Japan crisis Dec 1989 – Aug 1992<br />In USD<br />Index points<br />In Yen<br />- 75%<br />- 57%<br />Source: Bloomberg<br />
  3. 3. 2<br />I. Risk aversion by retail investors remains Fund flows into various asset classes<br />Net flows in mutual funds in Germany,<br />in mio EUR<br />AuM of mutual funds in Germany from 2000 to 2010, in bn EUR<br />+ 7 %<br />+ 45 %<br />+ 239 %<br />+ 34 %<br />Source: BVI<br />As of May 2011<br />
  4. 4. 3<br />II. Hedge Funds desperate to create volatilityLow volatility and sudden outbreaks of high volatilityremain a problem <br />…but recentlyuncertainciesarefeedingthrough(3 months)<br />Impliedvolatility* ofthe US market still quitelow… (3 years)<br />* CBOE OEX Volatility Index<br />Source: Bloomberg<br />As of May 2011<br />
  5. 5. 4<br />II. Hedge Funds desperate to create volatilityImportant trends mature (Emerging Markets, Resources)<br />EM starting to underperform<br />MSCI EM vs. MSCI World, YTD <br />MSCI Materials vs. MSCI World<br />Source: Goldman Sachs, Thomson Reuters Datastream<br />As of May 2011<br />
  6. 6. 5<br />III. Equities remain the superior asset class for performance contribution <br /><ul><li>Attractive valuation compared to fixed income and own history
  7. 7. Return to shareholders grows (dividends, share buy backs, M&A activity)
  8. 8. Monetary conditions remain favourable
  9. 9. Sovereign debt crisis puts risk positions in perspective (corporatesare the ultimative source of wealth creation)
  10. 10. Profitability may decouple from growth perspective
  11. 11. Inflation potential may help equities’ role as "real assets"
  12. 12. High liquidity in comparison to alternative assets</li></li></ul><li>6<br />Attractive valuation compared to fixed income and own history <br />Bonds cheaper<br />Equities cheaper<br />Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream<br />As of May 2011<br />
  13. 13. 7<br />IV. Economic growth fueled by emerging markets and monetary stimulus in jeopardy<br /><ul><li>Emerging market dilemma
  14. 14. Monetary stimulus failed to ignite job- and housing market
  15. 15. Europe burdened by sovereign debt crisis
  16. 16. Stagnating growth and easy money will lead to higher inflation </li></li></ul><li>8<br />Emerging Market dilemma<br /><ul><li>Export growth is fading - consumer demand growth is essential
  17. 17. Inflation is biggest threat to political stability and consumer demand
  18. 18. Higher interest rates necessary to fight inflation - currencies will rise further
  19. 19. Infrastructure spending as an additional growth element
  20. 20. Debt markets are growing</li></li></ul><li>9<br />Monetary stimulus failed to ignite job- and housing market US economy not yetfullyrecovered<br />US non-farmpayrolls, mom<br />US unemployment rate<br />in thousands<br />in %<br />US newhomesales<br />Case shillerhousepriceindex*<br />in thousands<br />*indexed Jan 2000 = 100<br />Source: Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg<br />As ofJune 2011<br />
  21. 21. Europe burdened by sovereign debt crisis Is Germany too strong for Europe?<br />10<br />Real GDPgrowth estimates for 2011 and 2012<br />in %<br />Source: Morgan Stanley<br />As ofJune 2011<br />
  22. 22. V. Sector rotation indicates an economic slowdown and lower risk appetite<br />11<br />Top Performer<br />Flop Performer<br />Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream (Total Return)<br />As of end of May 2011<br />
  23. 23. What we make out of it<br />M&A Opportunities<br />Stable growth, defensives, dividends and "late cyclicals”<br />Energy companies as a hedge against inflation<br /> European financialsastrade<br />Emerging Marketscloselymonitored<br />Active beta and volatility management <br />Corporate bonds/convertibles as alternative to equities<br />12<br />
  24. 24. 13<br />Disclaimer<br />The information contained in this document does not constitute investment advice and is merely a brief summary of key aspects of the fund. Full details of the fund can be found in the simplified or full sales prospectus, supplemented in each case by the most recent audited annual report and the most recent half-year report, if this report is more recent than the most recently available annual report. These documents constitute the sole binding basis for the purchase of fund units. They are available free of charge in either electronic or printed form from your advisor, from DWS Investment GmbH, Mainzer Landstrasse 178-190, 60327 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, or – where Luxembourg-based funds are involved – from DWS Investment S.A., 2, Boulevard Konrad Adenauer, 1115 Luxembourg. <br />All opinions given reflect the current assessment of DWS Investments, which may change without notice. In cases where information contained in this document derives from third parties, DWS Investments accepts no liability for the accuracy, completeness or appropriateness of such information, although DWS Investments only uses data that it deems to be reliable. <br />Calculation of performance is based on the time-weighted return (BVI method) and excludes initial charges. Individual costs such as fees, commissions and other charges have not been included in this presentation and would have an adverse impact on returns if they were included. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.<br />Further information on taxation can be found in the full sales prospectus.<br />The units issued under this fund may only be offered for purchase or sold in jurisdictions in which such offer or sale is permitted. The units in this fund are not allowed to be offered for purchase or sold either in the US or to or for the account of US citizens or US persons domiciled in the US. <br />This document and the information contained therein must not be distributed in the US. The distribution and publication of this document as well as the offering or sale of the fund's units may be subject to restrictions in other jurisdictions as well. <br />