Fi presentation mr citywire switzerland september 12
A truly global approach to bond investingCitywire Gstaad, September 2012
Fixed Income funds under management €142bn Breakdown of assets By client type By asset class Private placements, Real estate, €3.9bn €5.7bn High yield, €6.0bn Infrastructure, €2.3bn Retail, €25.8bn Index-linked, €9.9bn Annuity, €49.2bn Leveraged finance, €8.2bn Overseas bonds, €9.8bn UK gilts, €14.0bn Life, €29.9bn Corporate bonds*, Institutional, €82.6bn €37.5bn2 Source: M&G, 31 March 2012. * Investment Grade only,
M&G Retail Fixed Interest Team 7 fund managers and 7 other investment professionals Jim Leaviss Richard Woolnough – (26) Ben Lord – (10) (20 years experience) Fund Manager Fund Manager Head of Retail Fixed Interest Stefan Isaacs – (11) James Tomlins – (10) Mike Riddell – (10) Fund Manager Fund Manager Fund Manager Matt Russell – (8) Anthony Doyle – (10) Gordon Harding – (9) Deputy Fund Manager Investment Director Investment Specialist Nicolo Carpaneda – (7) Markus Peters – (2) Stuart Liddle – (5) Associate Investment Specialist Investment Specialist FMA Ana Gil – (4) James Thompson – (2) Associate Investment Specialist FMA3
Market leading credit analyst teams Analysing global companies and sovereigns Financials and sovereigns 7 149 fixed interest investment Industrials 10 professionals including 86 credit analysts Asset Backed Securities 9 Quantitative analysis 1 Real estate finance 13 Leveraged finance 16 Private placement 5 Project & infrastructure finance 5 Alternative credit 4 Infracapital 164 Source: M&G, as at 31 July 2012
Biography Mike Riddell • Mike Riddell joined M&G’s fixed interest team in 2003, originally as an investment specialist • In March 2010, he was promoted to fund manager of the M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund, the M&G International Sovereign Bond Fund and the M&G Index Linked Bond Fund • Prior to joining M&G, Mike worked as an assistant portfolio manager at Premier Asset Management within the private client department, covering both equities and fixed income • Mike graduated from Birmingham University in 2001 with a BSc honours in money banking & finance, and is a CFA charterholder5
M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Fund facts • Fund manager: Jim Leaviss • Deputy fund manager: Mike Riddell • Launch date: October 1999 • Fund structure: UCITS III • Size: €261 million • Sector: Morningstar Global Bond sector6 Source: M&G as at 31 August 2012. Ratings as at 31 July 2012 and should not be taken as recommendations.
M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Risk-adjusted performance vs. sector over 1y, 3y and 5y 20 M&G Global Macro Bond Fund 18 1 year Annualised returns p.a. (%) 16 1 year 14 12 3 years 10 3 years 8 5 years 5 years 6 4 2 Morningstar Global Bond sector average 0 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Annualised volatility of returns p.a. (%) Strong absolute, relative, and risk-adjusted returns7 Source: Morningstar, Inc., Pan-European database, Global Bond sector, as at 31 August 2012. M&G Global Macro Bond Fund returns are for the euro A share class, gross income reinvested, price to price.
A truly global approach to bond investingMike Riddell, Fund ManagerSeptember 2012
Beware of the misleading emerging market narrative9
Emerging market (EM) fund flows close to record this year Inflows into EM fixed interest ($bn) Cumulative flows per asset class (% of AUM) Where are valuations?10 Source : JP Morgan, September 2012.
EM local currency sovereign debt Correlation with equities 320 7500 EM local currency sovereign debt index level 300 7000 280 6500 260 6000 Dax index level 240 5500 220 5000 200 4500 180 4000 160 3500 JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Index (lhs) Dax (rhs)11 Source: Bloomberg, as at September 2012. Source: M&G, as at 30 December 2011.
EM external sovereign debt Very close correlation with US BBB non-financial corporates 160 150 140 Total return, indexed to 100 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Composite EM external debt index BBB US corporates, non-financials12 Source: Bloomberg, as at September 2012. The composite EM external debt index consists of the ML BoA USD BBB Rated Emerging Markets Sovereigns Index and Source: M&G, as at 30 December 2011. ML BOA USD BB Rated Emerging Markets Sovereigns Index in equal weights. Rebased to 100 at 6 June 2008
EM external corporate debt Very close correlation to US BB non-financial corporates 150 140 130 Total return, indexed to 100 120 110 100 90 80 70 JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified Index BB US Non-Financial High Yield Index13 Source: Bloomberg, as at September 2012. Rebased to 100 at 6 June 2008 Source: M&G, as at 30 December 2011.
China – the world’s biggest credit bubble since 2009 Annual change in private credit, 2009-11 % of GDP projection - World Economic Outlook 2012 55 2011 2010 45 2009 35 25 15 5 -5 Turkey Hungary Lebanon Poland Thailand Ukraine Peru Mexico Korea Brazil Egypt Kazakhstan South Africa Colombia Chile China Croatia India Romania Indonesia Philippines Nigeria Russia Malaysia Venezuela The question is not if, but when China’s bubble will burst14 Source : IMF Global Financial Stability Report, April 2012
China’s extraordinarily growth is now held up by credit Chinese GDP growth rate should be nearer to 5% than 10% Credit to GDP in % (2010) relative to per capita income in USD Ireland 250 Spain UK Portugal 200 Credit to GDP (%) 2010 US China* HK Japan Korea* 150 100 50 0 1000 11000 21000 31000 41000 51000 61000 Per capita income (USD) The Chinese government has a lot of policy firepower – but the days of 10%+ growth are behind us15 Source : World Bank, IMF, HSBC, January 2012. *China and Korea data have been adjusted by HSBC.
The eurozone crisis as competitiveness problem16
Eurozone debt crisis – another current account problem Current account balance as % of GDP, 2002-2011 10 Netherlands 5 Germany Ireland 0 France % Italy -5 Spain Portugal -10 Greece -15 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201117 Source: M&G, as at 30 December 2011. Source : Bloomberg, June 2012.
Interest rate differentials driving EUR/USD Germany-US yield differential vs EUR/USD exchange rate Yield (%) 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 2yr US treasury bond 2yr German government bond Short dated Germany-US yield differential versus EUR/USD exchange rate 1.5 1.2 1 1.45 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.4 1.35 0.2 1.3 0 -0.2 1.25 -0.4 1.2 2yr German-US treasury yield differential (lhs) EUR/USD exchange rate (rhs) A weaker EUR probably needs more negative bund yields18 Source : Bloomberg, 31 August 2012.
Fund manager objectives Aims to outperform the Aims to deliver steady returns average fund in its peer group with lower volatility than the as well as the fund’s average fund in its peer group composite benchmark throughout the economic over the medium term cycle M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Aims to construct a diversified portfolio by Aims to take high conviction investing in a range of liquid views. Not benchmark- fixed income assets across constrained geographies Total return focus20 Source: M&G, as at 13 January 2012.
A fully flexible global bond fund Historical credit risk and duration positioning 10 years 8 years 1 Feb 2009 (interest rate risk) 6 years 2 Jul 2011 Duration 4 years 4 Aug 2012 2 years 0 years -2 years -4 years AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC Credit risk21 Source: M&G, as at 31 August 2012.
Fund positioning summary M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Key portfolio themes Currency breakdown 60 Duration Low interest rate duration 50 Central banks no longer care about Inflation inflation, so we have 22% in linkers 40 Government Quality dominates – we own US and % bonds German government bonds 30 Investment We prefer corporate issuers – although grade covered bonds + RMBS are good value 20 High yield Still overcompensates for default 10 Emerging We like Mexico – but have short positions markets in Brazil, Turkey, Poland and Russia 0 USD EUR JPY MXN CHF SEK NOK GBP DKK Added European currencies on Fund Benchmark Currencies weakness over the summer22 Source: M&G, as at 31 August 2012.
M&G Global Macro Bond Fund check-list Managed by an experienced fund manager who has worked for more than two decades in the bond markets Provides access to all fixed income asset classes and global currencies Aims to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns throughout the economic cycle Has additional performance levers to pull, such as negative duration as well as negative positions in credit and currencies23 Source: M&G, as at 13 January 2012.
Overview of the fund’s comparable index – defining a ‘neutral’ position Currency exposure (%) Country exposure (%) 60 40 50 35 30 40 25 30 20 20 15 10 10 5 0 0 USD EUR JPY GBP CAD Other Credit exposure (%) Asset class exposure (%) Other, 2.8 Global EM, B, 8.5 17.0 Global AAA, 20.1 sovereigns, 33.0 BB, 11.4 Global HY, 17.0 AA, 16.7 BBB, 18.4 Global IG corporates, A, 22.2 33.026 Source: M&G, February, 2012
M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Key differences from the M&G Optimal Income Fund Ability to express unconstrained currency views Can go negative duration Won’t invest in equities Truly global bond fund Same M&G resources, different opportunities27 Source: M&G, as at 13 January 2012.
Central Bank Regime Change: the 4 regimes 1880-2012 0.6 The Volker years and inflation fighting Central Banks 1981-2010 0.5 Post WWII debt reduction and financial repression Frequency distribution 0.4 1945-1980 The Gold Standard. Monetary stability and fixed exchange rates 0.3 The credit crisis and 1880-1939 sovereign debt crisis 2008-2012 0.2 0.1 0.0 -5 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Real interest rate (deposit rate less RPI)28 Source: International Monetary Fund (1880-2010), M&G (2008-2012). Real interest rates refer to the UK.
Global inflation-linked bond yield curves Real yield across maturities 5 4 Italy 3 Australia France 2 Canada% US 1 Sweden Japan 0 UK Germany -1 Many inflation-linked bonds have negative real yields -2 1y 5y 10y 15y 20y 25y 30y 50y Financial repression means that real yields can become much more negative29 Source : Bloomberg, as at 31 August 2012.
Inflation expectations 10 year breakeven rates for US, UK and Germany 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 US 10y 2% UK 10y (RPI) Germany 10y 1.5 UK 10y (CPI) 1 0.5 0 -0.5 Market prices in inflation below the Central Bank targets30 Source: Bloomberg, as at 31 August 2012, based on the assumption of a differential of 1.0% between UK RPI and UK CPI
5-year implied default rates, European non-financials Implied vs. actual default experience Implied cumulative default rate Actual cumulative default rate 5-YR spread * 0% recovery 20% recovery. 40% recovery. Worst Average IG non-fin 212 9.9% 12.0% 15.3% 2.4% 1.0% AA 113 5.1% 6.2% 7.8% 1.8% 0.4% A 159 7.5% 9.1% 11.5% 2.5% 0.8% BBB 280 13.1% 15.9% 20.2% 5.8% 1.9% Default risk premiums are very high vs. experience since 1920s31 Source: Deutsche Bank, 2012 Default study as at 16 April 2012. * Bps
High yield valuations A benign default environment with limited refinancing risk European high yield spreads and default rates 2500 25 2000 20 1500 15 Spreads (bps) Default Rate % 1000 10 500 5 0 0 S&P Euro HY Default Rate (future forecast in red) ML Euro HY Constrained Index32 Source: M&G, Bloomberg , S&P, JP Morgan as at 31 August 2012
Team of 5 fixed interest risk analysts Objective and independent assessment of investment risk Sustainable portfolio Meaningful investment Transparency for our construction oversight clients • Consistency of • Rigorous challenge & • Valuable insight into investment strategy debate investments against fund objectives • Focus on key risks to • Opportunity to provide • Understand positioning performance – not just rigorous external for different market ‘box ticking’ challenge environments • Ensure appropriate • In depth analysis of • Seek to identify oversight and control portfolio construction, unintended risks functions are in place risk and performance drivers33
Risk analysis Credit leverage • Does the fund have a ‘hard’ credit leverage limit? The fund does not have a hard credit leverage limit per se, however any substantial level of leverage is subject to close scrutiny and challenge through our investment oversight framework. • How does credit leverage affect the fund’s overall risk profile? Credit leverage is primarily judged on the basis of credit default risk as well as price (spread) volatility through the use of VaR limits for global exposure monitoring (i.e. 20% VaR). We monitor the fund’s VaR on a daily basis to ensure the fund remains within its specified VaR limits, even if it is credit levered. • How do we measure credit leverage? Credit leverage is measured on a regular basis. For the purposes of credit leverage measurement, default credit exposure is based on the notional value of physical and derivative instruments that have underlying credit exposure and net of short derivative credit positions used for hedging purposes.34
Risk analysis OTC Derivative Counterparties • Only trade with counterparties where an ISDA contract is in place. • All counterparties are subject to credit due diligence on an on-going basis with minimum external rating standards, significant counterparty rating downgrades may trigger contractual termination clauses. • Derivatives positions are valued, netted across each counterparty and collateralised daily. There is zero minimum threshold for posting collateral subject to a minimum transfer value of £250k. • Collateral posted/received is specified within the ISDA contract and relevant annexes, collateral received tends to be cash and G7 Government stock and, occasionally, corporate bonds. • All counterparty exposures are monitored daily by the M&G Counterparty Credit Risk team.35
M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Risk analysis VaR break out 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Credit Interest Inflation FX36 Source: M&G, as at 31 August 2012
M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Risk analysis Credit stress test 10% 8% 6% 8.52% 4% 3.98% 3.74% 0.04% 2% 0% -0.04% -3.69% -2% -6.08% -7.15% -4% -6% -8% Spreads+1bp Spreads-1bp Spreads+100bp Spreads-100bp Spreads Spreads Spreads Spreads Reduced by Doubling 200% increasing by decreasing by 50% Rating Rating37 Source: M&G, as at 31 August 2012
M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Risk analysis Interest rate stress test 4% 3% 2% 3.31% 1.62% 0.03% 0.48% 1% 0% -0.03% -0.66% -1.57% -1% -3.08% -2% -3% -4% IR +1bp IR -1bp IR+50bp IR-50bp IR+100bp IR-100bp IR Curve IR Curve Flatteners Steepeners38 Source: M&G, as at 31 August 2012
M&G Global Macro Bond Fund Risk analysis Current hedged assets split by currency Current unhedged assets split by currency USD USD JPY CHF, 0.99% JPY CHF, 4.40% GBP SEK, 1% GBP EUR EUR CAD CAD, 0.00% CAD SEK, 3.80% AUD AUD NOK, 1.31% USD, 17.21% PLN PLN NOK, 3.77% NZD NZD NOK EUR, 28.15% NOK USD, 43.45% MYR JPY, 9.36% MYR CAD, 0.00% SGD SGD AUD, 0.00% DKK DKK SEK SEK EUR, 17.92% CHF CHF KRW KRW BRL BRL MXN GBP, 33.16% MXN GBP, 7.76% CLP CLP JPY, 10.37% CNY CNY40 Source: M&G, as at 31 August 2012
Fund facts Top 10 issuers, physical positions only Including government bonds Excluding government bonds Rank Issuer Fund (%) Rank Issuer Fund (%) 1 Japan Govt. 9.1 1 Granite Master 3.9 2 Mexico Govt. 7.6 2 USB 3.6 3 Germany Govt. 5.5 3 Tesco 3.1 4 Granite Master 3.9 4 Nationwide 2.5 5 Italy Govt. 3.7 5 Toyota 2.0 6 USB 3.6 6 Unity Media 1.7 7 Tesco 3.1 7 National Grid 1.6 Sunrise 8 US Govt. 3.1 8 Communications 1.4 9 Nationwide 2.5 9 Seven River Crossing 1.4 10 Toyota 2.0 10 Cemex 1.341 Source: M&G, as at 31 August 2012
Fund facts Top 5 CDS/CDX positions Long positions (sold protection) Short positions (bought protection) Rank Issuer Fund (%) Rank Issuer Fund (%) 1 Itraxx Europe 10.3 1 Poland Govt. -0.9 2 CDX NA HY 5.5 2 Brazil -0.6 3 CDX NA IG 2.4 3 Indonesia -0.6 4 France Govt. 2.4 4 South Africa Govt. -0.6 5 Austria Govt. 1.5 5 UK Govt. -0.642 Source: M&G, as at 31 August 2012
Prices may fluctuate and you may not get back your original investment.This document is designed for investment professionals’ use only, not for onward distribution to any other person or entity. For Switzerland: Distribution of this document in or from Switzerland isnot permissible with the exception of the distribution to qualified investors according to the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act, the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance and therespective Circular issued by the Swiss supervisory authority ("Qualified Investors"). Supplied for the use by the initial recipient (provided it is a Qualified Investor) only. In Spain the M&G InvestmentFunds are registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes as follows: M&G Investment Funds (1) reg. no 390, M&G Investment Funds (2) reg. no 601, M&GInvestment Funds (3) reg. no 391, M&G Investment Funds (5) reg. no 972, M&G Investment Funds (7) reg. no 541, M&G Investment Funds (9) reg. no 930, M&G Global Dividend Fund reg. no 713 M&G DynamicAllocation Fund reg. no 843, M&G Global Macro Bond Fund reg. no 1056 and M&G Optimal Income Fund reg. no 522. The collective investment schemes referred to in this document (the "Schemes") are open-ended investment companies with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales. In the Netherlands, all funds referred to, with the exception of M&G Investment Funds (2), M&G Investment Funds (5), M&GInvestment Funds (9) and the M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund, are registered with the Dutch regulator, the AFM. This information is not an offer or solicitation of an offer for the purchase of investment shares in oneof the Funds referred to herein. Purchases of a Fund should be based on the current prospectus. The prospectus, Key Investor Information Document (KIID), annual report and subsequent semi-annual report, areavailable free of charge, in paper form, from the ACD: M&G Securities Limited, Laurence Pountney Hill, London, EC4R 0HH, GB, or one of the following: M&G International Investments Limited, German branch,Bleidenstraße 6-10, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, the German paying agent J.P. Morgan AG, Junghofstraße 14, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, the Austrian paying agent, Raiffeisen Bank International A.G., AmStadtpark 9, A-1030 Wien, the Luxembourg paying agent, J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., European Bank & Business Center, 6 c route de Treves, 2633 Senningerberg, Luxembourg, Allfunds Bank, CalleEstafeta, No 6 Complejo Plaza de la Fuente, La Moraleja 28109, Alcobendas, Madrid, M&G International Investments Limited, 34 Avenue Matignon, 75008, Paris, France or from the French centralising agent of theFund: RBC Dexia Investors Services Bank France. For Switzerland: Please refer to M&G International Investments Ltd., Bleidenstraße 6-10, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main or, for Sweden, from the paying agent,Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ), Sergels Torg 2, 106 40 Stockholm, Sweden. For Italy, they can also be obtained from one of the appointed paying agents, details of which can be found by visiting thecontact section on the following website: www.mandg-investments.it. Before subscribing you should read the prospectus, which includes investment risks relating to these funds. This financial promotion ispublished by M&G International Investments Ltd. Registered Office: Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0HH, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and registered with the CNMV in Spain.Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Performance stats are quoted gross of Italian tax on capital gains