Animaprima fund highpotentialeurope__citywirealtucits201211

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Animaprima fund highpotentialeurope__citywirealtucits201211

  1. 1. Anima How to benefit from theEuropean Equities Comeback 2012 For professional investors only
  2. 2. Anima – Key facts Breakdown by Tipe of clientLeading Italian asset management firm Over 35 bln Eur of Assets under Management* Largest independent manager, 3rd mutual fund manager by AuM including captive players Operations in Italy (ANIMA Sgr), Ireland (ANIMA Asset Management), Luxemburg (ANIMA Man Co) 215 employeesUnique distribution network Long-term partnerships with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Banca Popolare di Milano (shareholders of AM Holding – ANIMA’s Breakdown by asset class parent holding company) 150+ distribution agreements with banks and financial advisors networksHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 1
  3. 3. ANIMA – Group structure Management and other shareholders 38,1% 36,3% 23,4% 2,2%  Strategic guidelines Asset Management  Shareholders relations Holding  Group finance  Internal, legal and corporate audit  Business plan implementation  Business Management (Ireland) (Luxemburg)How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 2
  4. 4. ANIMA - Investment DivisionDistinctive investment and product engineering capabilities Over 50 investment/product development professionals In-house structuring team for formula funds Investments Division (44) Equities (12) Bonds (12) Mandates (10) Multimanager (10)How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 3
  5. 5. ANIMA’s investment philosophy Our beliefs What we do not What we do Dynamic portfolio NO buy and hold management  Short-term market cycles  Clear NO style bias Tactical approach accountability determines success Portfolio managers NO buy-side analysts  Debt > Equity = Analysts NO illiquid bets Liquidity is a mustHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 4
  6. 6. Track record in European Equities – Ten years of over-performance European Equity return vs market (GEO Europa gross return) 180 Prima Geo Europa 160 Benchmark + 4373 bp 140 Ten years of out-performing 120 the markets… 100 80 60 gen‐02 gen‐04 gen‐06 gen‐08 gen‐10 gen‐12 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 …as expressed -0,75% 3,68% 1,10% 2,47% 4,18% 3,96% 3,18% 9,94% 3,00% 2,33% - ALPHA by consistent -0,19 1,31 0,69 1,44 1,56 1,58 0,60 3,14 1,18 0,73 - IR Alpha and IR - - - 497% 374% 358% 442% 310% 287% 461% - TurnoverNOTE: Performance of Prima Geo Europa gross of fees and taxes at 19/11/12; composite benchmark that accounts for changes in porfolio management: 31/12/01-24/11/02 (10% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro Currency 3-Month LIBID Average Coupon in EUR - Gross Total Return, 90% MSCI Europe in EUR - Price Index); 25/11/02-31/12/05 (10% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro Treasury Bill in EUR - Gross Total Return, 90% MSCI Europe in EUR -Price Index); 01/01/06-27/12/07 (10% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro Treasury Bill in EUR - Gross Total Return , 90% MSCI Europe in EUR - Net Total Return); dal 28/12/07 (10% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro Treasury Bill in EUR -Gross Total Return , 90% MSCI Europe in EUR - Net Total Return)How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 5
  7. 7. ANIMA - European Equity investment team Experience Experience w/ ANIMA 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Lars Schickentanz CIO, mutual funds Andrea Bianco Samuele Chiodetto Mathias Domini Over 100 years Luigi Dompè of cumulative investment Andrea Ferrari management experience Manuela Novati Lucio VignatiNote: Citywire ratings as of June 2012Source: ANIMA, Citywire How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 6
  8. 8. Market Outlook for 2013: positive on equityHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 7
  9. 9. Why we are positive on Equity?  Investor positioning remain cautious, since 2008 Bond funds have seen $1trn inflow, while equity have experienced about $500bn outflow  Equity allocation are low (average recommended allocation in US is currently 42% vs an average over Tactical last 10 years of 63%)  Central Banks balance sheets keep expanding (M1 growing 7% faster than nominal GDP)  Search for yield will keep drive multiple expansion (corporate Debt yields making new lows)  Valuation still lead to upside despite the recent multiple expansion Equities remain cheap against the bond  Risk premiums remain elevated at 7.7% on consensus number versus a more warranted ERP ( Based on the output gap, ISM and credit Valuation spreads) of 5.5%,  Cyclical adjusted P/E remains close to its 20 year low (investors adaptation to a low growth, low discount rate cycle is only just starting  Global Macro condition remain a positive despite low growth environment  Low Inflation, accommodative monetary policy and gradually improving growth prospects reflect “early cycle conditions Macro  Developed economies are not into year 4 of such conditions and given the extent of the output gap, and monetary policymakers stated objective of maintaining policy support this backdrop is likely to persist through 2013  Macro surprise continue to rise, Em potential growth to surprise as China cycle bottomHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 8
  10. 10. Big Investors are still missing in the Equities Markets Source: Bloomberg, ThomsonHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback Reuters, EPFR 9
  11. 11. Liquidity condition will remains supportive BBB Yield (since 2007) 2years German Yield (since 2010)How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback Source: Bloomberg 10
  12. 12. Stocks attractive vs corporate debt and ERP still highHalf of the stocks in the Europe Stoxx 600 have a yield above credit The equity risk premium – even adjusted for a decline in margins – is currently a very high 7.7% on IBES consensus numbers. Putting in our more pessimistic earnings numbers, the ERP is still 6.2% The warranted ERP (based on the output gap, ISM and credit spreads) is 5.1% How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 11
  13. 13. Global Financial ConditionsMSCI World vs GLOBAL MACRO SURPRISE How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 12
  14. 14. CHINA – Cyclical trough around year endCHINA MANUFACTURING PMI NEW ORDERS MINUS INVENTORIES CHINA Industrial Production YoY Source: Bloomberg How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 13
  15. 15. From Policy to GrowthInvestors will continue to be sensitive to political and policy implementation risks in Q4… Euro crisis resolution: Spain’s request for EFSF aid, Greece’s future in EMU , progress towards  Global Growth a banking union, ECB policy stabilises in 2012 Q4 US credit rating and risks of recession due to “fiscal cliff” with modest cyclical improvement in 2013 China: Political transition in November and scope for monetary and fiscal easing H1;…but the focus will increasingly switch from policy to growth towards year-end  Look for positive growth surprises in Subdued and below-trend global growth for 2013 is now a consensus view… Eurozone and China …triggering a “hunt for growth” as investors begin to look into 2013 and beyond around year-end;  US Fiscal cliff remainsChina could be a key source of cyclical upside surprise key risk to global Chinese growth disappointed in 2012: weak global demand, delay in policy easing due to growth despite FED QE efforts; political transition EM potential growth: China cycle bottoming around the end of the yearEurozone to experience positive (albeit temporary) confidence shock: as euro convertibilityrisk falls further in Q4 ECB: credible support mechanism now introduced for peripheral countries However, Eurozone growth will be capped by fiscal restraint (eg. France and Spain)US: Beyond the cyclical improvement, the fiscal cliff is a major downside risk QE3 helps markets but marginal effect on the real economy Political polarization could lead to a much bigger negative confidence shock than what is currently expected How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 14
  16. 16. Why European Equities?How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 15
  17. 17. Why European Equities ?  Europe has outperformed the US over recent months, as European policymakers finally appear to have designed a suitable ‘safety net’.  We see this performance trend continuing through 2013 as political momentum in Europe and a significant shift in the ECBs approach signaled via the OMT announcement. have now effectively reduced the major risks that kept global investors out of Europe.  After adjusting for composition differences, the European and US equity markets are similarly valued on 2012 earnings.  But a major cyclical recovery in earnings awaits in parts of the European equity market, particularly financials, while it is difficult to argue that the US earnings cycle is not far more mature.  Europe is the cheapest way to play the upside in the global equity marketsHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 16
  18. 18. OMT impact on impaired peripheral markets• Strong impact of non-conventional European Financial Condition (since 2010) measures on impaired markets – OMT implicitly increases ESM firepower, triggering further public debt mutualisation – Pari-passu ECB status• Part of a sequence: credit easing is the next step – Strong positive tonality hints that more is to come• Warning: this is not yet the full mutualisation – No direct control on the long-end of the yield curve – Strict conditionality increasing debt- deflationary pressure Source: BloombergHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 17
  19. 19. Europe Vs US Stoxx Euro 600 vs S&P ($) MSCI Europe vs. US – 12m Fwd PE0.35 Stox x Euro 600 relativ e to S&P 500 ($) 1.3 Europe relativ e to the US - 12m Fw d PE0.33 Note - The lines represent average and +/-1 SD from long run0.31 1.2 average. Chart includes max history available with MSCI0.29 1.10.27 +1SD0.25 1.00.23 0.90.210.19 0.8 -1SD0.17 0.70.15 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 MSCI Europe vs. US – Price to book MSCI Europe vs. US – Schiller PE1.2 Europe relativ e to the US - Price to book 1.7 Europe relativ e to the US - Schiller PE1.1 1.5 1 1.30.9 1.10.8 0.90.7 0.70.60.5 0.5 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch European Investment Strategy How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 18
  20. 20. Valuation views from Global investors: Europe Vs USGlobal Fund Manager Survey shows investors positioning for Eurozone equities have increased in recent months Global Fund Managers: Views on valuations 60 US EZ80 US Europe60 4040 2020 Overvalued 0 0 -20-20 Undervalued-40 -40-60 -60 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch European Investment Strategy How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 19
  21. 21. How straight European Equityrecovery will be ?How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 20
  22. 22. Europe will probably rally in waves from the bottom… Source: DatastreamHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 21
  23. 23. …but there’s always bull market if you pick it right! Top sector 150% performance Bottom sector Bottom sectorYear Top sector name Top sector perf minus Bottom Market perf name perf sector 130% performance 110%1989 Utilities 39% Basic Mats 17% 23% 25%1990 Health Care -6% Basic Mats -25% 19% -18%1991 Health Care 60% Technology 3% 56% 12% 90%1992 Consumer Svs 8% Oil & Gas -4% 13% 2%1993 Telecom 49% Consumer Gds 22% 27% 36% 70%1994 Basic Mats 3% Financials -17% 20% -9%1995 Health Care 50% Telecom -1% 50% 13%1996 Telecom 34% Financials 15% 20% 21% 50%1997 Financials 62% Basic Mats 11% 51% 38%1998 Telecom 63% Oil & Gas -7% 70% 18% 30%1999 Technology 135% Utilities -5% 140% 36%2000 Health Care 24% Telecom -37% 61% -5% 10%2001 Oil & Gas -3% Technology -43% 40% -17%2002 Consumer Gds -17% Technology -57% 39% -32%2003 Technology 34% Oil & Gas 1% 33% 14% -10%2004 Utilities 25% Technology -2% 27% 10%2005 Basic Mats 40% Telecom -2% 42% 23% -30%2006 Utilities 36% Health Care 3% 33% 18%2007 Basic Mats 27% Financials -15% 42% 0%2008 Health Care -18% Financials -60% 42% -46% -50% 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122009 Basic Mats 71% Utilities 1% 70% 28%2010 Consumer Gds 26% Utilities -9% 35% 9%2011 Health Care 12% Financials -26% 38% -11%2012 Financials 21% Telecom -7% 28% 12% Top sector performance minus Bottom sector… Market perf Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 22
  24. 24. Anima Star High Potential EuropeDiscretionary Long Short European Equities FundHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 23
  25. 25. ANIMA STAR High Potential Europe Fund objective: Long term capital growth investing in european equities regardless of market conditions, with the target of achieving positive returns at substantially lower risk Investment Approach: discretionary european long short equities portfolio built along 3 main performance engines: 1.high conviction bets 2.dynamic hedging book 3.Pair trades Equity nex exposure range: -10 / +70% Volatility Target: 6%How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 24
  26. 26. ANIMA STAR High Potential Europe – Investment Team Lars Schickentanz Head of investments, mutual funds, Head of the European Equity desk ANIMA STAR HIGH POTENTIAL EUROPE lead portfolio manager Career highlights: 20 years of industry experience, started his career in Germany as an Assistant Portfolio Manager. He then covered the same role in Prime Investment Management; in 1993 he became Lead European Portfolio Manager at Caboto Gestione, joined MPAM sgr (now merged in ANIMA Sgr) in 1998. Degree in Economics from Friedrich Alexander Erlangen Nünberg University) Lucio Vignati Senior Equity Trader, European Equity desk ANIMA STAR HIGH POTENTIAL EUROPE co-responsible portfolio manager Career highlights: 15 years of industry experience, member of the buy side hedge funds desks at Pioneer Alternative and Newmann Ragazzi, sell side desks as Director European equity sales trader for 9 years at Lehman Brothers and Jp Morgan Mathias Domini Assistant Portfolio Manager, European Equity desk ANIMA STAR HIGH POTENTIAL EUROPE co-responsible portfolio manager Career highlights: started his career in 2009 at Deutsche Bank AG as Assistant to the Head of Italian Equity Research for the Telecommunication segment, joined PRIMA sgr (now merged in ANIMA Sgr) in 2010. MS Degree in Finance from Bocconi University in Milan.How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 25
  27. 27. ANIMA STAR High Potential Europe – Investment approach  Result of top down approach What is a theme / catalyst?  Identification of an investment theme or style (e.g. emerging market consumption) or stock  Structural growing theme Core specific catalysts (e.g. reporting season, (e.g. Emerging markets book company events like restructuring, M&A consumptions) potential)  Typically, maximum of ~50 positions  Short to mid term catalysts (e.g. Implications for  Hedging purposes according to macro view European nuclear plants  Portfolio hedging through index derivatives after Fukushima)  Shorting of high conviction ideas to reduce Dynamic market exposure  Other themes: sectorial, hedging intra-sectorial, geographical (e.g. spread within European countries growing rate), external shock (UE sovereign  Long/short equity trades basically beta crisis), megatrend, macro… neutral  Alpha generation strategy de-correlated to Pair trades the market trend  Strict Stop loss to each positions when build up  Liquidity bias: positions must be sold in 1 dayHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 26
  28. 28. ANIMA STAR High Potential Europe - Risk management process Ex-ante monitoring Ex-post monitoring ReviewFrequency  Intra day  Daily  MonthlyDescription  Monitoring by the Head  Monitoring of the  The Risk Management of investments and the regulatory / prospectus Committee examines Fund Managers limits by the Back- the evidence of tests (regulatory, Office and analysis carried by prospectus and  Monitoring of the the Risk Management internal limits) internal limits by the with regards to: Risk Management unit – Risk / return – Investment strategy – Operational limits  The Board of Directors reviews the overall strategy and portfolio results How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 27
  29. 29. ANIMA STAR High Potential Europe – Exposure and performance Since Inception Equity Net exposure MSCI Europe High Potential – Cl. I120 60%115 50%110 40%105 30%100 20%95 Fukushima 10%90 Greece 0%85 Double dip Double dip, Italy, US Greek Spain OMT fears debt ceiling referendum80 ‐10% Jan‐10 Apr‐10 Jul‐10 Oct‐10 Jan‐11 Apr‐11 Jul‐11 Oct‐11 Jan‐12 Apr‐12 Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Note: Performance as of 16.11.12, net of fees – Data on daily basis – Source: ANIMA Sgr How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 28
  30. 30. ANIMA STAR High Potential Europe – Exposure and performance YTD Equity Net exposure MSCI Europe High Potential – Cl. I120 60%115 50%110 40%105 30%100 20% 95 ECB OMT ECB LTRO II 10% 90 EUGroup 85 0% 80 Spain ‐10% Dec‐11 Jan‐12 Feb‐12 Mar‐12 Apr‐12 May‐12 Jun‐12 Jul‐12 Aug‐12 Sep‐12 Oct‐12 Note: Performance as of 16.11.12, net of fees – Data on daily basis – Source: ANIMA Sgr How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 29
  31. 31. ANIMA STAR High Potential Europe – Performance Since InceptionHigh Potential Europe – Class I Performance Volatility14/1/2010 = 100 Since +12,2% 6.4% inception 2010 +10.2% 6.0% 2011 -1.4% 6.9%120 6 moths 3.83%115 3 months 0.83%110 1 month -1.55%105100 95 90Note: Performance as of 16.11.12, net of fees – Data on daily basis – Source: ANIMA SgrHow to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 30
  32. 32. Operational details Italian UCITS Irish UCITS  Fund Name: PRIMA Strategia  Fund Name: PRIMA Star High Europa Alto Potenziale Potential Europe  ISIN classe Y: IT0004302029  ISIN classe I: IE0032464921  Benchmark: no benchmark  Benchmark: no benchmark  Management fee class Y: 0,60%  Management fee class I: 0,60%  Portfolio Manager: Lars  Portfolio Manager: Lars Schickentanz Schickentanz  Inception Date: 31/12/2006  Inception Date: 14/01/2010  AUM: 223ml €  AUM: 163 ml €How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 31
  33. 33. Contacts Davide Gatti Director, Sales Division davide.gatti@animasgr.it +39 02 80638 318 Alessio Coppola Sales Division, Relationship Manager Fund users alessio.coppola@animasgr.it +39 02 80638 267How to benefit from the European Equities Comeback 32
  34. 34. This document is solely addressed to professional operators. It contains confidential and/or privileged information and it is intendedfor internal use. It cannot be disclosed to third parties and/or distributed to the public. This is an informative report and its content is notintended and cannot be used as advertising for the placement of any fund managed by ANIMA Sgr. The Company assumes the hereby giveninformation as accurate and reliable, but it does not guarantee its precision and it shaIl not therefore be liable for its use by the addressees.

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