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Vientos de Cola Generan Desafíos y Oportunidades


Alberto Ades
Head of Latin America
Economics and Market Analysis

alber...
Global

La recuperación global continúa consolidándose. Recientes datos confirman que los EEUU,
Europa, y Canadá están ret...
Global


 Luego de una recuperación inicial impulsada por la recomposición de inventarios, el
 crecimiento será desigual p...
Global


 Los flujos de capitales a países emergentes han aumentado sustancialmente desde marzo.

 Esto crea nuevos “probl...
Global


 Un dólar débil ayudaría a mantener los precios de los commodities elevados, reforzando la
 apreciación de los ti...
Estados Unidos


 Las condiciones financieras continúan mejorando y varios indicadores sugieren que la
 economía está crec...
Estados Unidos


  También hay signos alentadores de recuperación en el mercado inmobiliario y el consumo.



           S...
Estados Unidos


 El empleo temporario ha aumentado significativamente en los últimos tres meses y ha caído
 el número de ...
Estados Unidos

  Costos laborales  + Productividad  = Ganancias Corporativas 

  Estos factores deberían conducir a cr...
América Latina


La actividad se encuentra repuntando también en la región.

             120
                            ...
América Latina


Inflación en baja permite mantener los estímulos monetarios por el momento.



         8.
          0   ...
América Latina


                             Consolidated Macro Forecasts, 2009-2011
                                    ...
América Latina


En el 2010, las economías latinoamericanas van a enfrentar los siguientes desafíos:

Desafío 1: Presiones...
América Latina


Desafío 2: Inflación en alza.

 En algunos países, vemos niveles de inflación cercanos convergiendo hacia...
América Latina


Desafío 3: Deterioro en cuentas fiscales y cuenta corriente.

En Brasil, Argentina y Venezuela, gran part...
América Latina


Riesgos a Monitorear en 2010
 Suba temprana (?) de la tasa de Fed funds
   Unemployment Rate in Months S...
América Latina


   Freno a la expansión económica china

                    GFCF/GDP of Various Countries              ...
América Latina




Cuellos de botella por desinversión en el sector energético durante la
recesión:

      Cuellos   de ...
IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: Citigroup Inc. and its affiliates do not provide tax or legal advice. Any discussion of tax m...
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12 - Alberto Ades

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CONFERENCIA ANUAL FIEL 2009
12 - Alberto Ades

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12 - Alberto Ades

  1. 1. Vientos de Cola Generan Desafíos y Oportunidades Alberto Ades Head of Latin America Economics and Market Analysis alberto.ades@citi.com +1 212 816 2735 Noviembre 2009
  2. 2. Global La recuperación global continúa consolidándose. Recientes datos confirman que los EEUU, Europa, y Canadá están retornando a crecimiento positivo en el tercer trimestre. Esto marcaría el fin “técnico” de las recesiones en esos países o regiones. Asia está en franca recupreación. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices ISM New Export Orders and Exports to Developing Asia (Year-to-Year Percent Change) 65 65 50 50% 65 60 60 40 60 30 55 55 20 55 50 50 10 50 0 45 45 -10 US Expors t Asi ( t t o a Lef) 45 United States -20 New Expor Or s ( ght t der Ri ) 40 40 40 Euro Area -30 Japan 35 35 -40 35 China 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 30 30 2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  3. 3. Global Luego de una recuperación inicial impulsada por la recomposición de inventarios, el crecimiento será desigual por regiones. Esperamos un mayor rebote en Asia (ex-Japón), y en EEUU un crecimiento más fuerte que en el resto de los países desarrollados. Economic Forecast Overview GDP Growth CPI Inflation CA Balance Fiscal Balance (%) (%) (% of GDP) (% of GDP) 2009F 2010F 2009F 2010F 2009F 2010F 2009F 2010F United States -2.5 2.6 -0.4 1.8 -3.2 -4.0 -12.0 -9.0 Japan -5.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.5 2.9 3.4 -11.3 -8.6 Euro Area -3.7 1.6 0.2 1.1 -0.7 0.4 -6.0 -6.5 United Kingdom -4.4 1.3 2.1 3.4 -2.7 -2.1 -12.6 -14.0 Brazil 0.2 5.0 4.9 4.0 -1.1 -2.2 -3.0 -1.8 Russia -7.5 3.0 12.0 8.6 4.0 3.4 -6.5 -4.2 India 5.8 7.8 2.0 5.0 -0.9 0.1 -10.5 -8.5 China 8.7 9.8 -0.6 3.0 6.7 6.2 -3.0 -2.4 Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis 3
  4. 4. Global Los flujos de capitales a países emergentes han aumentado sustancialmente desde marzo. Esto crea nuevos “problemas” para los banqueros centrales de la región, que deben enfrentar presiones a la apreciación de sus monedas. Emerging Market Fund Flows (Weekly By Region) 8 3% 6 2% W eekl Fl ( S$ bn) 4 2 1% y ows U s % ofasset - 0% ( 2) ( 4) -1% ( 6) -2% ( 8) -3% ( 10) ( 12) -4% J 08 Apr08 an- - J - ul08 Oc - t08 De - c 08 Mar09 J 09 Se 09 - un- p- G EM S Lat am EM EA Asi ex a Tot ( H S) al R 4
  5. 5. Global Un dólar débil ayudaría a mantener los precios de los commodities elevados, reforzando la apreciación de los tipos de cambio regionales. Selected Commodity Prices 475 425 God l 375 Oil 325 L I x ME nde CRB F o I x o d nde 275 225 175 125 75 25 ul04 ul05 ul06 ul07 ul08 ul09 J 04 J 05 J 06 J 07 J 08 J 09 J- J- J- J- J- J- an- an- an- an- an- an- 5
  6. 6. Estados Unidos Las condiciones financieras continúan mejorando y varios indicadores sugieren que la economía está creciendo nuevamente (el PBI creció 3.5% en 3Q09 y estimamos un 2.0% de crecimiento para 4Q09). Monthly GDP (Six-Mos. Smoothed Pct Chg) and Citi Financial Conditions Index (Standard Deviations) 8% 8 3 3 6 2 1 4 0 2 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 -8 -6 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 RealGDP ( t Lef) FCI( ght Ri ) 6
  7. 7. Estados Unidos También hay signos alentadores de recuperación en el mercado inmobiliario y el consumo. Selected House Price Indexes (Three- Essential and Discretionary Spending Month Annualized Percent Change) Ex-Autos in PCE (Six-Month Smoothed Annualized Percent Change) 25 25% 40 25% 15% 15 15 15% 20 30 15 12 12 20 10 9 9 10 5 6 6 0 0 -5 -10 3 3 -10 -20 0 0 -15 -30 -20 -3 -3 -25 -40 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 -6 -6 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FHFA Case-Shiller Loan Performance Essential Discretionary 7
  8. 8. Estados Unidos El empleo temporario ha aumentado significativamente en los últimos tres meses y ha caído el número de industrias con pérdida neta de empleo. Three-Month Employment Diffusion and Three-Month Change in 200 200K Temporary Help Employment (Thousands) 90 150 80 100 70 50 60 0 50 -50 40 -100 30 -150 20 -200 10 -250 0 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 T mpo ar Hep ( e t e r y l L f) Dif in I x( ght fuso nde Ri ) 8
  9. 9. Estados Unidos Costos laborales  + Productividad  = Ganancias Corporativas  Estos factores deberían conducir a crecimiento del empleo (esperamos que la Fed suba tasas para el verano del norte). Unit Labor Cost (1992=100), Output Per Hour/Nonfarm Business Sector (1992=100) and Corporate Profits (SAAR, $bn) 160 1,700 150 1,600 1,500 140 Base 1992=100 SAAR, $ bn 1,400 130 1,300 120 1,200 Unit Labor Cost 110 Output Per Hour - Nonfarm Business Sector 1,100 Corporate Profits (right) 100 1,000 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 9
  10. 10. América Latina La actividad se encuentra repuntando también en la región. 120 Regional GDP Indices (Base Jan 2006 = 100) 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Latam GDP Weighted USA Europe Latam Equally Weighted Evolution of Consolidated Economic Indicators for 2009 – Latin America Oct-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Real GDP Growth (%, yoy) -2.2 -2.2 -3.0 -2.6 -2.5 -0.8 -0.8 0.2 Inflation (% yoy, eop) 5.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.7 9.1 8.9 8.6 Inflation IT-5 (% yoy, eop) 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.3 Current Account (% of GDP) -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -1.6 -1.8 -1.8 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -3.0 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 -2.5 Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis 10
  11. 11. América Latina Inflación en baja permite mantener los estímulos monetarios por el momento. 8. 0 % 7. 0 6. 0 5. 0 4. 0 3. 0 2. 0 1. 0 0. 0 Se 04 p- Se 05 p- Se 06 p- Se 07 p- Se 08 p- Se 09 p- Annualnfato ( weght d) I l in GDP- i e Annual e I l in ( weght d) i d nfato GDP- i e z 11
  12. 12. América Latina Consolidated Macro Forecasts, 2009-2011 2009F 2010F 2011F ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Real GDP growth (yoy) -2.2 3.7 3.7 Real Investment Growth (yoy) -12.8 7.4 8.3 Real Consumption Growth (yoy) 0.2 3.9 4.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.4 8.5 8.1 PRICES Consumer Price Inflation (yoy, eop) 5.9 6.7 6.5 Bilateral Real Exchange Rate (% change yoy, + dep.) -19.1 3.3 -2.1 EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.7 -1.2 -1.8 Current Account Balance (in US$ bn) -25.3 -45.9 -75.4 Trade Balance (in US$ bn) 49.1 42.8 49.2 Foreign Direct Investment (in US$ bn) 60.8 71.0 88.2 Terms of Trade (% change yoy, + improvement) -10.1 4.4 3.4 DEBT INDICATORS Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 21.6 18.3 18.1 Public (% of GDP) 11.4 9.9 9.9 Private (% of GDP) 10.2 8.4 8.2 Source: Citi. 12
  13. 13. América Latina En el 2010, las economías latinoamericanas van a enfrentar los siguientes desafíos: Desafío 1: Presiones a la apreciación de los tipos de cambio reales debido a US dólar más débil, suba de precios de commodities y recuperación del nivel de actividad. Foreign Exchange Forecasts vs. Fair Value and Forwards 2009 2010 Fair Value Spot Rate Year-end Fair Value Year-end Fair Value - Today Forward Forward Forecast Year-end Forecast Year-end USD/ARS 3.82 3.88 3.90 4.09 3.83 4.55 4.28 4.26 USD/BRL 1.72 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.73 1.80 1.56 1.85 USD/CLP 524 532 540 536 523 550 540 519 USD/COP 1,978 2,190 1,850 2,180 1,984 1,900 2,189 2,063 USD/MXN 13.37 13.29 12.80 13.60 13.43 13.10 14.09 14.08 USD/PEN 2.90 2.97 2.85 2.99 2.90 2.70 2.68 2.90 13
  14. 14. América Latina Desafío 2: Inflación en alza. En algunos países, vemos niveles de inflación cercanos convergiendo hacia las metas anuales ya para el 2Q o 3Q, posiblemente forzando suba temprana de tasas (antes que la Fed). Citi’s Interest Rate Calendar: Who’s Tightening, When? Current Cumulative Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Rate (%) Rise Chile 0.5 0 +50 +75 +100 +75 +300 Peru 1.3 0 0 +75 +75 +75 +225 Brazil 8.8 0 0 +100 +100 0 +200 Colombia 4.0 0 +25 +75 +75 +25 +200 Mexico 4.5 0 0 0 +50 +50 +100 14
  15. 15. América Latina Desafío 3: Deterioro en cuentas fiscales y cuenta corriente. En Brasil, Argentina y Venezuela, gran parte del estímulo consistió en incremento del gasto corriente (salarios y empleo) que es inflexible a la baja y que va a demandar suba de impuestos en el mediano plazo. Deterioro en la cuenta corriente regional por: dólar débil, mayor demanda interna y desequilibrios fiscales. 3.0 Current Account (% of GDP) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -3.0 -2.8 -4.0 15 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F
  16. 16. América Latina Riesgos a Monitorear en 2010  Suba temprana (?) de la tasa de Fed funds Unemployment Rate in Months Surrounding Beginning of Fed Tightening 11% 11 11% 11 10 10 2010F 9 9 8 8 1983 1994 7 7 6 6 2004 5 5 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 +12 16
  17. 17. América Latina  Freno a la expansión económica china GFCF/GDP of Various Countries Credit and GDP in China (CNY, bn) 45% 50,000 China 40% Japan GDP 40,000 Germany 35% South Korea Domestic Credit 30,000 30% 20,000 25% 10,000 20% 15% 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 17
  18. 18. América Latina Cuellos de botella por desinversión en el sector energético durante la recesión: Cuellos de botella ponen freno a la recuperación Venezuela, Ecuador, República Dominicana y Perú en riesgo  Incertidumbre política en Brasil  Corriente de El Niño 18
  19. 19. IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: Citigroup Inc. and its affiliates do not provide tax or legal advice. Any discussion of tax matters in these materials (i) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used or relied upon, by you for the purpose of avoiding any tax penalties and (ii) may have been written in connection with the "promotion or marketing" of any transaction contemplated hereby ("Transaction"). Accordingly, you should seek advice based on your particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor. Any terms set forth herein are intended for discussion purposes only and are subject to the final terms as set forth in separate definitive written agreements. This presentation is not a commitment to lend, syndicate a financing, underwrite or purchase securities, or commit capital nor does it obligate us to enter into such a commitment, nor are we acting as a fiduciary to you. By accepting this presentation, subject to applicable law or regulation, you agree to keep confidential the existence of and proposed terms for any Transaction. Prior to entering into any Transaction, you should determine, without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such Transaction. In this regard, by accepting this presentation, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any Transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any Transaction) and our disclaimer as to these matters. By acceptance of these materials, you and we hereby agree that from the commencement of discussions with respect to any Transaction, and notwithstanding any other provision in this presentation, we hereby confirm that no participant in any Transaction shall be limited from disclosing the U.S. tax treatment or U.S. tax structure of such Transaction. We are required to obtain, verify and record certain information that identifies each entity that enters into a formal business relationship with us. We will ask for your complete name, street address, and taxpayer ID number. We may also request corporate formation documents, or other forms of identification, to verify information provided. Any prices or levels contained herein are preliminary and indicative only and do not represent bids or offers. These indications are provided solely for your information and consideration, are subject to change at any time without notice and are not intended as a solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any instrument. The information contained in this presentation may include results of analyses from a quantitative model which represent potential future events that may or may not be realized, and is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing any product. Any estimates included herein constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and are subject to change without any notice. We and/or our affiliates may make a market in these instruments for our customers and for our own account. Accordingly, we may have a position in any such instrument at any time. Although this material may contain publicly available information about Citi corporate bond research, fixed income strategy or economic and market analysis, Citi policy (i) prohibits employees from offering, directly or indirectly, a favorable or negative research opinion or offering to change an opinion as consideration or inducement for the receipt of business or for compensation; and (ii) prohibits analysts from being compensated for specific recommendations or views contained in research reports. So as to reduce the potential for conflicts of interest, as well as to reduce any appearance of conflicts of interest, Citi has enacted policies and procedures designed to limit communications between its investment banking and research personnel to specifically prescribed circumstances. © 2009 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world. 19

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