The Future Is Video<br />Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG)<br />June 10, 2011<br />
Global Consumer Internet Traffic Growing 500% Between 2009 and 2014<br />36% CAGR 2009–2014<br />15%<br />27%<br />10%<br ...
Mobile data traffic will increase 39-fold from 2009 to 2014<br />4%<br />5%<br />108% CAGR 2009–2014<br />8%<br />17%<br /...
Video Driving Explosive Network Growth<br />Global Consumer Internet Video CompositionVideo traffic increasingly driven by...
If All Video Minutes Were 3D in 2014, the Video Forecast Would Be 3X Higher<br />
Consumers Are Widely Embracing Internet Video Content    <br />Watching Internet Video (by Age)<br />Watching Internet Vid...
Lifestyle is also Driving Adoption<br />Living Situation<br />Employment Status<br />Base: US Broadband Consumers<br />Sou...
Rise of “On-Demand” Models The Consumer Cloud<br />For the Consumer: Capabilities that enable consumers to easily & secure...
The CDN ImperativeThe Case for Federation<br />Definition<br /> A multi-footprint, CDN capability built from resources tha...
Which CDN Components Need to Be Interconnected?<br />Request-Routing system:<br />Redirecting client requests to an “appro...
CDN Federation Market OpportunityFoundation for Retail and Wholesale Services<br />Content, Service & Application Revenues...
Current CDN Market Scope Mostly Basic/Enhanced Delivery + Some VAS<br />Content, Service & Application Revenues<br />Publi...
Global CDN Market Forecast (M$)<br />A Market of ~6B$ by 2015 with a “status quo” CDN approach<br />A Market of ~12B$ by 2...
No major disruption on the way CDNs handle Video or work with Content Providers
Some Content Providers prefers DIY CDNs to better control their content quality. More than 50% of the Internet Video traff...
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The Future is Video

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How Cisco is innovating in video solutions across business, private and public sectors and what the future of video implies for service providers.

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  • IP traffic will increase 4.3 fold from 2009–2014. In 2014, global IP traffic will reach 3/4 of a zettabyteAdvanced Internet video (3D and HD) will increase 23-fold between 2009 and 2014. By 2014, 3D and HDInternet video will comprise 46 percent of consumer Internet video traffic.By 2014, consumer IP traffic will represent 87% (or 55.8 exabytes) of monthly total global IP traffic; while business IP traffic will represent 13% (or 8.1 exabytes) of monthly total global IP traffic.The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and P2P) will continue to exceed 91 percent of global consumer traffic by 2014. Internet video is now 40 percent of consumer Internet traffic and by the end of 2010 it will be 57% in 2014 -- not including the amount of video exchanged through P2P file sharing.If all video minutes were 3D in 2014, the video forecast would be 3X higher (from 38 EB to 111 EB per month). High-definition video will be 45% of World Consumer Internet Video in 2014, up from 17% in 2009.3D video will be 1.4% of World Consumer Internet Video in 2014, up from 0.05% in 2010.World Internet-Video-to-TV (a subset of Internet Video) will increase 38-fold between 2009 and 2014, at a CAGR of 107%.World Internet-Video-to-PC (a subset of Internet Video) will increase 7-fold between 2009 and 2014, at a CAGR of 48%.Ambient Video (a subset of Internet Video) will increase 16-fold between 2009 and 2014, at a CAGR of 75%.65% of consumer’s prefer the SP as the provider of internet video to TV experiences
  • from 38 EB to 111 EB per month
  • Average annual household income is higher for those watch TV programs on the Internet ($45K vs. $42K)
  • Customer Behavior54MM global Internet-enabled set-top boxes (Xbox360, Sony PS3, TiVo,Slingbox, Vudu, Roku…), +59% Y/Y in 2008 – transforming TVs into Internet streaming / on-demand video terminals81% of respondents with access to VoD on their television indicated they prefer watching VoD* content on their television than their PCMuch higher satisfaction watching Video on TV than PC% Very/fairly satisfied with overall viewing experienceVoD on TV – 91%;VoD on PC – 62%Supplier Response – Content and media companies are looking to seize on direct path to the consumer, but are growing increasingly open to collaboration models with SPsIncreasing investigation and emphasis on the part of MSOa to understand n-screen enablement to PC and remote and mobile devices (e.g., TV Anywhere). Recent Supreme Court ruling on n-DVR creates interesting possibilitiesJV between BBC, ITV, Five, BTPSBs have 67% votes, ISPs have 33%Open, Internet connected, DTT platformLinear channels, VoD, Web Apps...Will align with Freeview-HD in 2010JV controls top-level UI, EPG, Search Engine...Will support different business modelsJV will not operate a billing system, nor serve AdsParticipating ISPs need to promote Canvas devicesTV Quality standard for content deliveryWill use Push-VoD (also over DTT) for efficiency
  • The Future is Video

    1. 1. The Future Is Video<br />Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG)<br />June 10, 2011<br />
    2. 2. Global Consumer Internet Traffic Growing 500% Between 2009 and 2014<br />36% CAGR 2009–2014<br />15%<br />27%<br />10%<br />46%<br />* VoIP, Online Gaming, and Video Calling contribute 1% or less in 2014<br />Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014 - www.cisco.com/go/vni <br />
    3. 3. Mobile data traffic will increase 39-fold from 2009 to 2014<br />4%<br />5%<br />108% CAGR 2009–2014<br />8%<br />17%<br />Exabytes/mo<br />66%<br />Mobility An Even Faster Growing Subset<br />Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014 - www.cisco.com/go/vni <br />
    4. 4. Video Driving Explosive Network Growth<br />Global Consumer Internet Video CompositionVideo traffic increasingly driven by live video and TV<br />52% CAGR 2009–2014<br />16%<br />16%<br />17%<br />42%<br />Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014 - www.cisco.com/go/vni <br />
    5. 5. If All Video Minutes Were 3D in 2014, the Video Forecast Would Be 3X Higher<br />
    6. 6. Consumers Are Widely Embracing Internet Video Content <br />Watching Internet Video (by Age)<br />Watching Internet Video (by Content)<br />93%<br />80%<br />81%<br />67%<br />61%<br />55%<br />52%<br />51%<br />38%<br />25%<br />User-created Short Clips (youtube)<br />TVPrograms<br />Professional Short Clips (news)<br />Movies<br />Sporting Events<br />2.6 hours <br />1.1 hours <br />47min<br />43min<br />1.7hours <br />Time per week<br /> Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers <br />Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010<br />Consumer Behavior Is Fueling the Growth<br />
    7. 7. Lifestyle is also Driving Adoption<br />Living Situation<br />Employment Status<br />Base: US Broadband Consumers<br />Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010<br />
    8. 8. Rise of “On-Demand” Models The Consumer Cloud<br />For the Consumer: Capabilities that enable consumers to easily & securely access the content, applications, and infrastructure they seek from any location or device.<br />For the Service Provider: Capabilities that provide companies with a re-usable, expandable, and agile common services engine for quick time to market and better insight & control over consumers’ end-to-end experience.<br />
    9. 9. The CDN ImperativeThe Case for Federation<br />Definition<br /> A multi-footprint, CDN capability built from resources that are owned and operated by autonomous members.<br />Objectives<br />Allow individual members to sell Internet wide delivery<br /> Extend ONnet differentiators (quality, scale ...) across footprints<br /> Simplify contracting with content providers<br /> New interconnect model to complement IP transit & peering<br /> Reduce local transport costs<br /> Platform for value added services and SP retail services<br />
    10. 10. Which CDN Components Need to Be Interconnected?<br />Request-Routing system:<br />Redirecting client requests to an “appropriate” federated CDN/Cache for delivery<br />Content Distribution* system: <br />Distributing content from one CDN to another<br />Accounting system: <br />Moving accounting data between CDNs for billing and reporting purposes (both Retail and Wholesale)<br />*Not to be confused with “Delivery” of content from a Cache to the client<br />
    11. 11. CDN Federation Market OpportunityFoundation for Retail and Wholesale Services<br />Content, Service & Application Revenues<br />Public Cloud<br />Mobile Services<br />TVEverywhere<br />nScreen Services <br />Saas<br />Virtual Private Cloud<br />Application Stores<br />Content Stores<br />Digital Locker<br />Content Management & VAS Revenues<br />Syndication<br />Storage<br />Metadata Mgt<br />Transcoding<br />Analytics<br />Customizable Players<br />Security<br />Payments<br />Hosting<br />Ad Insertion<br />Authentication<br />Enhanced Delivery Revenues<br />Apps Acceleration<br />Cloud Acceleration<br />Site Acceleration<br />Multicast<br />Qos<br />HD<br />Proximity<br />On-demand<br />Delivery Revenues<br />Object Delivery<br />Live<br />Streaming<br />Download<br />IP Transit<br />Peering<br />IP Core<br />Network Cost Reduction<br />IP Aggregation<br />CDN<br />CDNI<br />Gateway<br />CDNI<br />Gateway<br />Content Provider<br />CDN<br />CDN<br />CDNI<br />Gateway<br />CDNI<br />Gateway<br />
    12. 12. Current CDN Market Scope Mostly Basic/Enhanced Delivery + Some VAS<br />Content, Service & Application Revenues<br />Public Cloud<br />Mobile Services<br />TVEverywhere<br />nScreen Services <br />Saas<br />Virtual Private Cloud<br />Application Stores<br />Content Stores<br />Digital Locker<br />Content Management & VAS Revenues<br />Syndication<br />Storage<br />Metadata Mgt<br />Transcoding<br />Analytics<br />Customizable Players<br />Security<br />Payments<br />Hosting<br />Ad Insertion<br />Authentication<br />Revenues<br />Enhanced Delivery Revenues<br />Apps Acceleration<br />Cloud Acceleration<br />Site Acceleration<br />Multicast<br />Qos<br />HD<br />Proximity<br />On-demand<br />Delivery Revenues<br />Object Delivery<br />Live<br />Streaming<br />Download<br />IP Transit<br />Peering<br />IP Core<br />Network Cost Reduction<br />IP Aggregation<br />CDN<br />CDNI<br />Gateway<br />CDNI<br />Gateway<br />Content Provider<br />CDN<br />CDN<br />CDNI<br />Gateway<br />CDNI<br />Gateway<br />
    13. 13. Global CDN Market Forecast (M$)<br />A Market of ~6B$ by 2015 with a “status quo” CDN approach<br />A Market of ~12B$ by 2015, with a market push from SP “OnNet” CDNs<br />CDN VAS<br />Application acceleration<br />Dynamic Site acceleration<br />Other Object delivery<br />Video delivery<br />CDN VAS<br />Application acceleration<br />Dynamic Site acceleration<br />Other Object delivery<br />Video delivery<br /><ul><li>CDN market keeps its structure as today
    14. 14. No major disruption on the way CDNs handle Video or work with Content Providers
    15. 15. Some Content Providers prefers DIY CDNs to better control their content quality. More than 50% of the Internet Video traffic is not going over commercial CDNs
    16. 16. SP’s build OnNet CDNs delivering better quality, more video is consumed
    17. 17. Content Providers migrate their premium content to benefit from this guaranteed quality
    18. 18. DIY CDN is a less attractive option for Content Providers </li></ul>Source: Frost & Sullivan, Akamai, Limelight, Cisco VNI, IBSG analysis<br />*CDN VAS: Storage, Transcoding, Security, Ad Insertion, Analytics, Consulting...<br />
    19. 19. Key Considerations <br />Massive video growth drives both operating challenges, but also new revenue opportunities<br />Determine what your strategy will be for content management and distribution<br />Content management (CDNs) key to handle the increased traffic of video and provide basis for wholesale VAS<br />Emerging federated CDN models may have both regulatory and anti-trust considerations<br />

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