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Chap 2 structure et evolution des marchés

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Cours Marketing -benavent

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Chap 2 structure et evolution des marchés

  1. 1. Structure et dynamique de marché Christophe Benavent http://christophe-benavent.blogspot.com30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 1
  2. 2. Fundamental choice30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 2
  3. 3. Adaptative strategies30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 3
  4. 4. Structures Concurrentielles Formes élémentaires Définition des marchés Segmentation et Différenciation30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 4
  5. 5. Formes élémentaires30/11/11 5
  6. 6. Concurrence pure et parfaite Conditions : Nombreux acheteurs et vendeurs de même taille (atomicité) Produit homogène (pas de différenciation) Information parfaite Le problème : max (Yp-C(Y)) => p=c ’(Y) pas de profit sauf si Cm(Y)>c ’(Y)30/11/11 6
  7. 7. Le monopole qtes30/11/11 prix 7
  8. 8. L ’oligopole A baisse prix hausse du prix B baisse prix (0,0) (10,-10) hausse du prix (-10,10) (10,10)30/11/11 8
  9. 9. Structure de marché Pouvoir de négociation fournisseur Nouveaux Concurrence interne Substitution entrants Pouvoir de négociation client30/11/11 9
  10. 10. La définition des marchés30/11/11 10
  11. 11. Concurrence Interne Différenciation Verticale Prix Qualité30/11/11 11
  12. 12. Cycle de vie de marché30/11/11 12
  13. 13. Cycle de vie de marché Phases Lancement Croissance Maturité Déclin Clientèle Rare, peu Croissante peu Stable, Déclinante, expérimentée, expérimentée, expérimentée, vieillissante, innovatrice imitatrice, fidèle et goût pour habituée diverses; la variété ; exploratrice hypersegmentée Structure Leadership Croissante, Oligopolistique; Décroissante, pb Concurrentielle technologique, Intensifiée, différenciée; de sortie différenciation Intense, et Faible intensité stabilisée Connaissance Nulle, Faible, imitation Elevé, scanning, Très élevé, plus des marchés apprentissage plus importante, améioration des dapprentissage permanent focalisation de procédures, nécessaire lapprentissage système adaptatifs Problème Atteindre le seuil Assurer sa Maintenir la Récolter ce qui stratégique de rentabilité domination profitabilité reste à gagner30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 13
  14. 14. Télécoms – avant la bulle30/11/11 14
  15. 15. Cycle de vie des marchés : stratégies. Phases Lancement Croissance Maturité Déclin Produits Gamme réduite Gamme étendue Personnalisation Gamme réduite Innovation Prix Marge Pénétration Prix concurrentiel elevé Communication Connaissance Connaissance, Différenciation réduite Différenciation Personnalisation Distribution Sélective Massive Diversifiée Sélective30/11/11 15
  16. 16. CVM et cycle de produit Phase du cycle Cycle de vie du marché de produit Introduction Croissance maturité Déclin Introduction Problème Problème de me- Entrée à maturité Régénération dinnovation too. Croissance NP Problème de Entrée à maturité Régénération domination Maturité NP Problème de Problème de Problème de repositionnement moisson moisson Déclin NP Problème de Problème de Problème de sortie repositionnement repositionnement de marché30/11/11 16
  17. 17. Lancement30/11/11 17
  18. 18. Croissance30/11/11 18
  19. 19. La diffusion dN t =(a+bN t )( K −N t ) dt Et le réachat - génération 8 N kt =∑ λ t N k −1,t−t i=130/11/11 19
  20. 20. Les types d ’évolution Rythme de réachat Elevé Faible Rythme de Diffusion Rapide Croissance explosive puis Modes stabilisation Lent Croissance en S Cycle/recycle possible30/11/11 20
  21. 21. An Empirical Generalization Adoption of Answering Machines 1982-1993t Stock by Generations, W ireless Phones, 1986-2025 14000 180 12000 160 140 10000 120 8000 100 Stocks 80 6000 60 4000 40 20 2000 0 1 3 5 7 9 15 27 31 33 37 11 13 17 19 21 23 25 29 35 39 0 Year30/11/1184 82 83 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 21 Stock G1 Stock G2 Stock G3
  22. 22. Capture Law-Mainframes- Beautiful! Generations of Mainframe Computers (Performance Units) 1974-1992 sub-title 120000 100000 80000 60000 Sales 40000 20000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Year Gen1 Actual Gen1 Fit and Forecast Gen2 Actual Gen2 Fit and Forecast Gen3 Actual Gen3 Fit and Forecast Gen4 Actual Gen4 Fit and Forecast30/11/11 22
  23. 23. Le marché des télécom30/11/11 23
  24. 24. Déclin30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 24
  25. 25. Un autre point de vue30/11/11 25
  26. 26. 30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 26
  27. 27. BOP30/11/11 27
  28. 28. Masstige30/11/11 28
  29. 29. 30/11/11 29
  30. 30. 30/11/11 30
  31. 31. Dynamiquesdémographiques30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 31
  32. 32. Le Low cost30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 32
  33. 33. Différents degrés30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 33
  34. 34. Permeabilité au low cost30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 34
  35. 35. technologique s30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 35
  36. 36. Malédiction de lasatisfaction Evolution des indices sectoriels ACSI sur le marché US 90 85 80 Energy Utilities Network/Cable TV News All Others Fixed Line Telephone Service TRANSPORTATION & Wireless Telephone Service 75 WAREHOUSING Airlines Cellular Telephones All Others Cable & Satellite TV 70 U.S. Postal Service HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE Express Delivery Hospitals 65 INFORMATION ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES Newspapers Hotels 60 Motion Pictures Limited-Service Restaurants 55 50 Q1 1997 73.0 Q1 2001 69.0 Q1 2005 73.130/11/1174.0 Q1 1995 Q1 1999 74.0 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr Q1 2003 73.0 36
  37. 37. Evolution du marchétélécom30/11/11 37
  38. 38. Loi de Moore30/11/11 38
  39. 39. Dynamique de la performance niveau de techno B : état de lart performance frontière de la technologie A techno A état de lart firme A (technologie A) Nouvel investissement dans B Investissement supplémentaire dans A30/11/11 I 39 Investissement cumulé
  40. 40. La logique de l ’expérience Répétition (volume cumulé) Croissance (en volume) Accroissement de Accroissement de lexpérience par lexpérience par apprentissage économie déchelle Innovation des -réduction de la capacité excédentaire -opérateurs -managers -substitution - process - Approvisionnements30/11/11 Réduction des coûts 40
  41. 41. Innovation incrémentale et radicale Coût unitaire (log) la diminution du coût se fait le long de la courbe dexpérience C1 C2 Q1 Q2 Production cumulée (log) Coût unitaire (log) la diminution du coût se fait le long de la courbe dexpérience C1 gain obtenable par expérience C2 gain obtenu par innovation C230/11/11 41 Q1 Q2 Production cumulée (log)
  42. 42. Produits et Production Innovation produits Innovation processus Stade fluide stade systémique30/11/11 42
  43. 43. Conclusion Vers un modèle à deux phases : - transition - Stationnarité30/11/11 http://christophe.benavent.free.fr 43

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