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Afm journée entreprise april 1 2011

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A-r-on besoin de nouvelles mesures ? Effets de la pub à long terme

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Afm journée entreprise april 1 2011

  1. 2. La variété des canaux et la multiplication des supports <ul><li>Média classique (TV, journaux, radio) </li></ul><ul><li>MD toujours en tête des investissements </li></ul><ul><li>E-mailing et autres newletters même si menace de transfert et diminution de l'efficacité </li></ul><ul><li>Liens sponsorisés (l'essentiel du digital) </li></ul><ul><li>Bannières and rich display media </li></ul><ul><li>Médias sociaux et autres recommandations </li></ul><ul><li>Promotions On ef Off </li></ul><ul><li>L'envol prochain du mobile </li></ul><ul><li>… . </li></ul>
  2. 3. Le problème des campagnes <ul><li>Flux continu et accumulation </li></ul><ul><li>Les effets faibles 0.1% </li></ul><ul><li>Les problèmes de pression commerciale </li></ul>
  3. 4. La non-evidence des Kpi's <ul><li>Les indicateurs de couverture et d'intensité : quelles bases de comparaison d'un média à l'autre? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reach, frequence, visiteurs uniques etc.. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Les indicateurs de réponse du consommateur : mesure de la campagne ou des sujets? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mémorisation, attitude, satisfaction, réputation, confiance, fidélité, recommandation, actions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Indicateurs de réponse du marché </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sales, Market share, customer value and equity. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Indicateurs Financiers. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>> Vers une approche balanced scorecards? </li></ul></ul>
  4. 5. Interaction des flux Medias sociaux Blog et sites mass media DM Sales
  5. 6. Une stratégie de mesure <ul><li>Travailler au niveau des programmes plus que des campagnes qu'on considère comme des “chocs” dans un processus auto-régressif. </li></ul><ul><li>Intégrer les influences mutuelles des médias à la manière des BSC ( Module client) </li></ul><ul><li>Modéliser en prenant en compte le temps : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Drift : glissement de la var. dépendante (l'effet) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carryover : effets d'inertie </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interactions : entre les médias </li></ul></ul>
  6. 7. Modèles VAR, DLM, VECM.. <ul><li>Un système d'équations auto-régressives </li></ul><ul><li>Une batterie de tests de causalité </li></ul><ul><li>Le traitement des séries co-intégrées : tests, le modèle VECM </li></ul><ul><li>Le calcul des fonctions d'impulsion : une mesure dynamique de l'élasticité </li></ul>
  7. 8. Un exemple simple
  8. 10. Un autre exemple (Rutz et Bucklin, JMR 2011)
  9. 11. Enjeux de recherche <ul><li>Des données multicanal : à 360°C </li></ul><ul><li>Revenir aux agrégats, l'individu nous échappe. </li></ul><ul><li>Construire une base «  recherche » et inviter les économètres ? </li></ul><ul><li>Obtenir des résultats positifs sur l'interaction des canaux : </li></ul><ul><li>Se concentrer sur l'effet final et la contribution à ce dernier des indicateurs intermédiaires. </li></ul><ul><li>Raisonner en termes d'elasticité. </li></ul>
  10. 12. Merci ! Questions ?

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