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20130723 game industry trend


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Speech on July 28th.

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20130723 game industry trend

  1. 1. Trend of Game Industry Christina Hsu
  2. 2. Agenda • Global Status in Brief • A glance at Taiwan • Trend of Mobile Games
  3. 3. Global Status in Brief
  4. 4. Overall Gaming Market Growth Remains Steady Global Market Overview-Revenue
  5. 5. Global : Users Spending ½ of time playing Casual, Social, Mobile Games. Great potential growth in Monetization. Ref: Newzoo Feb 2012 US EU Emerging Asia Casual Time 23% 15% 17% 18% Money 13% 10% 11% 11% Social Time 16% 16% 18% 16% Money 8% 6% 10% 10% Mobile Time 12% 12% 13% 17% Money 10% 8% 8% 10% MMO Time 12% 11% 19% 15% Money 12% 9% 15% 32% Global Market Overview-Genre
  6. 6. Browser Games Invasion led by China = Quick & New Revenue Stream We see from the left Pic from 2011Q1 to 2012Q1, there’s a 125% Year over Year growth in revenue from $1.02 billion RMB to $2.31 billion RMB in browser-based gaming in China. We also see from right Pic, that the user base in browser-based gaming grows significantly throughout the pass through 2 years in China. China has always been one of the pioneers in browser-based games other than Germany; the Browser-based game market trend around Asia-pacific. Strong developing powering, China develops approximately one thousand browser-based games each year and the top performed titles are licensed to oversea markets creating a new game sector of gaming among Asia-pacific. Lower cost & faster route to user acquisition, comparing to client-based games browser-based games gains a huge advantage, especially in Asia-pacific where internet infrastructures and Hardware in average is not as advanced as NA and EU. These games has also greatly impact Taiwanese market since 2011, there was many new companies establish great success with a browser-based game focus strategy. The most successful one, Cube Magic, went OTC in Taiwan earlier in 2012, and it only took them less than 3 years. In 2011, Cube Magic generated $487 million NTD in revenue, $105 Million NTD in profit and hit an outstanding EPS at $37.83 NTD. In browser-based gaming sectors, we expect a steady growth in Taiwan and a rapid growth among Asia-pacific. Browser Games
  7. 7. Social Casino= Our Best Edge! The market value of real-money online gambling is 5-6 times larger than overall social gaming, estimated $35.8 billion USD vs $6.2 billion USD in 2012, see Pic below We see significant growth in social games X online casinos in the past 2 years from the Pic right. The audience has grown double. And gradually taping the revenue from online gambling, we can see the market for social gambling games has doubled to $1.6 billion worldwide. Due to the low entry barrier and wide viral spread helps this sector in gaming industry grew significantly rapid. Our target should be aimed at the emerging Asia-Pacific and New emerging markets which has yet been dominated, and which we have a geographic advantage. And also our contents, scale of economic and experience are much more powerful than the local content providers. Social Casino Games
  8. 8. Growth of Mobile App is Most Noteworthy
  9. 9. Platform – Mobile 65% V.S. Wintel 35%
  10. 10. 2012 Mobile Market Places Reviews Average Value per Download: $0.12 to $0.175 USD (Our Performance: below $0.001 USD) Average Revenue per App: $3,750 to $9,032 USD (Our Performance: below $100 USD) Global Mobile Market 50% from 2012 775K Apps 775K Apps 40 Billion Downloads 25 Billion Downloads 60% from 2012 $7 Billion USD Rev. Share to Dev 800K Apps $3B USD(e) Rev. Share to Dev REF: 2013 Jan. Sociable, Venture Beat
  11. 11. Mobile Traffic, User Base, Shipments, Installed Base Mobile Traffic takes 13% of Internet Traffic, Smartphone Users to Grow 500% potentially Mobile Device Shipments Exceed PCs by 4Q10, Total Mobile Installed Base est. to exceed PCs By 2Q13 Mobile Market Overview Ref: KPCB DEC. 2012
  12. 12. Global Mobile 3G Subscribers +37% +153% Mobile Monetization CAGR% Freemium (+IAP) Revenue Share 50% | 65% Mobile Market Overview: 3G Subscribers 1.1B, penetration=18%, growth = 37%, Mobile Monetization(App+Ad) = $12B USD, CAGR 153% 2008 - 2011. Freemium + IAP = 50% in App Store, 65% in Android Market. (Up from approximately 30%, Jan 2011) The numbers of available apps in App store and Android Market doubled in 2011. Gree’s ARPU grew from $10 to $24, CyberAgent ARPPU grew from $220 to $418 ARPU Mobile vs Desktop = 1:3 ~ 1:5, still lesser but growing Total number of Apps 2X +100% Mobile (IAP) ARPU YoY% Mobile vs Desktop ARPU Mobile Desktop Ref: Mary Meeker’s 2012 Internet Trends (May, 2012) Distimo 2011 Full Year Report Mobile Market Overview
  13. 13. A Glance at Taiwan
  14. 14. Taiwan Market Overview 2011: 264.0 | 2012(e):280 |2013(f): 296($100M NTD) Extraordinary Growth for Browser Game Focus companies Revenue of Licensed Game Publishing remains Flat, Profit drops fiercely. Self-dev/pub MMORPG companies declines dramatically, except for X- Legend(30% revenue from licensing oversea pubs) Traditional Dev/OEM dying 7.5% CAGR Ref: Consolidated Financial Reports Browser Game Focus Publisher Traditional Developer/ OEM Korean/Chinese Licensed MMO/Casual Publisher Arcade/Slot Manufacturer Social Gambling Developer Publisher MMO Developer + Self Publisher Channel/Payment Virtual Items Trading *2012 estimated by 2012 average revenue from Jan. to Aug. *2013 Forecasting by CAGR of each company from 2009 to 2011 If you look at the consolidate Financial Reports, it’s Growing over these year!! But it’s NOT Growing from 11’ to 12’ 0% GR
  15. 15. Overall disappointment among Investors and the Market towards Gaming in TW From PE comparison we don’t see a very clear idea about the market. We still see Chinese Gamer and Wayi rising in P/E. However, if we closely look at the P/B, we see a very clear picture that P/B is lower each year than the previous. This indicates that the revenue of most companies might be rising/falling gradually, the cost is rising relatively higher and the earnings aren’t that promising. Taiwan Market : Financial Review
  16. 16. Non-consolidate Reports shows: The sum of Top publisher were up 0.14% Positive results for 4 companies, CayenneTech, UserJoy , X-legend and Soft World. SoftWorld got a 29% boost from Diablo III. 2012 1H with only 3% income margin. UserJoy was all time low in 2011, now it has resurrected. X-Legend revenue 40%-50% comes from License Fee. Gamania 1H| Net income 1.6M $NTD, EPS 0.01|Q2 Loss $47,380,000 NTD. +29% +13% -8% -16% -10% -14% +11% +18% -42% -26% +0.14% Local online game publishing income shows: Gamania 50% of its online game income comes from NEXON, the world largest F2P Casual MMO company, which controls 33% Of Gamania now. Cayennetech, Casual MMO focus, manager to grow 12.6% MMORPG Focus developers/Publisher drops 7.9% to 42.2%. -1.94% +12.6% Ref: [Online Game Income] or [Game Points Income] from each Companies Financial report -7.9% -15.8% -13.3% -32.4% +15.0% -24.6% -42.2% -26.7% +27.4% Ref: Revenue from each company’s non-consolidate reports Revenue OLG Income $NTD $NTD Market Overview: 2011 1H vs. 2012 1H of Major Game companies in Taiwan Listed Game Companies Overview
  17. 17. How’s Taiwan Market in Mobile? iOS Users 2.5 Million User, Android 5.8 Million Users Total Smartphone users est. 7.7 million(Dec 2012), 33% of Penetration of Population, YoY Growth 80% highest among Top 30 countries. 18 Million 3G/4G subscribers, Addressable Market 1.1 Million Users, Growth potential 130% in the following years Taiwan Mobile Game Market
  18. 18. Smart Phones: Penetration in Taiwan MOEC, Nov. 2011
  19. 19. 2012 Report from MIC • 13.1% of players transfer to mobile platform • 15.4% of players spend more time playing games because of mobile platform 轉移 10~20% 的原本遊戲時 間至手機 / 平板遊戲上 26.2% 沒有影響,我根本不想玩 手機 / 平板遊戲 31% 沒有衝突,反而增 加玩遊戲的總時間 15.4% 投入程 度增加 轉向以手機 / 平板遊戲為主 6.9% 轉移 40~50% 的原本遊戲時 間至手機 / 平板遊戲上 7.1% 高度 平修 轉移 20~40% 的原本遊戲 時間至手機 / 平台遊戲上 13.1%
  20. 20. Trend of Mobile Games
  21. 21. App Store Highlights, Mar 2013 • Games are driving the app store market today • While iOS App and Google Play are now very close in game downloads, iOS still remains the game monetization leader, earning over twice as much as Google Play in March 2013 • Google Play game revenue is growing quickly, however – and Google Play revenue is even more concentrated in games than iOS App Store revenue is • Over the past year, the in-app purchase business model has gained momentum, it has been adopted heavily by games
  22. 22. iOS vs. Google Play: Downloads AppAnnie, May 2013
  23. 23. iOS vs. Google Play: Revenue AppAnnie, May 2013
  24. 24. Games Downloads by Country • United States, China drove close to 40% of iOS Games downloads • In many markets, Google Play now exceeds iOS in Games downloads, which may set the stage for future Google Play growth * Top ten countries by total iOS App Store + Google Play Game downloads Mar 2013
  25. 25. Games Revenue by Country • US, Japan, Korea drove about 80% of Google Play Games revenue • iOS remains the clear revenue leader across most countries, except: South Korea, home to Samsung, leans heavily toward Google Play Japan spends across both stores fairly evenly * Top ten countries by total iOS App Store + Google Play Games revenue Mar 2013
  26. 26. Markets Shifting in iOS App Store • Russia is the emerging market for downloads • China has been moving up the iOS revenue rankings and is now #3 Rank by game downloads Rank by game revenue Rank Mar 2013 Chg vs. Mar 2012 Rank Mar 2013 Chg vs. Mar 2012 #1 United States - #1 United States - #2 China - #2 Japan - #3 United Kingdom - #3 China 4 #4 Japan - #4 United Kingdom 1 #5 Canada - #5 Australia 1 #6 Russia 3 #6 Canada 1 #7 France 1 #7 France 1 #8 Germany 1 #8 Germany 2 #9 Australia 1 #9 Russia - #10 Italy - #10 South Korea 1
  27. 27. Markets Shifting in Google Play • Russia, Brazil, Mexico are the emerging markets • Japan and Korea now on top • Paid apps returned to Google Play Taiwan in Feb 2013 Rank by game downloads Rank by game revenue Rank Mar 2013 Chg vs. Mar 2012 Rank Mar 2013 Chg vs. Sep 2012 #1 United States - #1 Japan 1 #2 South Korea - #2 South Korea 1 #3 Russia 3 #3 United States 2 #4 Japan 1 #4 United Kingdom - #5 Germany 1 #5 Germany - #6 India 1 #6 Australia - #7 Brazil 6 #7 France - #8 Spain - #8 Taiwan N/A #9 Mexico 6 #9 Canada 1 #10 United Kingdom 1 #10 Hong Kong 8
  28. 28. Revenue per Download, March 2013 Revenue per Download, iOS Games, March 2013 Revenue per Download, Google Play Games, March 2013 AppAnnie, May 2013
  29. 29. • The casual game categories of Action and Arcade are most popular with downloads, but the heavier genres of RPG and Simulation are most revenue- generating iOS: Top Game subcategories *In the iOS App Store, a game can be put in up to two subcategories. As a result, there is overlap among the subcategories. Indexed iOS Game Downloads Indexed iOS Game Revenue
  30. 30. Google Play: Top Game subcategories Indexed Google Play Game Downloads Indexed Google Play Game Revenue • In contrast with iOS, Arcade & Action games are most downloaded and revenue- generating on Google Play
  31. 31. Top iOS Game Publishers by Revenue • The top five grossing iOS publishers remained consistent from February to March
  32. 32. Top Google Play Game Publishers by Revenue • In recent months, this list has been dominated by publishers from Japan and South Korea, but this month’s list included Electronic Arts, King, and Kabam, who are based in the US and UK
  33. 33. Top iOS Games by Downloads • Many top-downloaded iOS games continued to be Action or Arcade • Candy Crush Saga has been rising steadily and reached #1 in March
  34. 34. Top Google Play Games by Downloads • Many top games on Google Play were Arcade & Action, as with iOS • Swinging game Benji Bananas gave Fingersoft two in the top 10
  35. 35. Top iOS Games by Revenue • The top five grossing iOS games have remained the same for each month of Q1 2013, which is remarkable given how games rise and fall • Supercell, Kabam, and EA each had two apps in the top ten in March
  36. 36. Top Google Play Games by Revenue • Puzzle & Dragons had the top ranks in both iOS and Google Play • The SimpsonsTM : Tapped Out, brought from iOS to Google Play in February, made its debut in the top ten in March
  37. 37. Self-publish or get published • Get published? – If you get solid commitments on marketing budget and promotional efforts • Self-publish? – Promote budget to make Apple/Google feature your app – Big Data Analysis to improve UX
  38. 38. Thank you