A shift from analogue to digital, IP-based CCTV is currently taking place. What will happen in the future?

2. Our Big Brother has grown bigger and
bigger over the last decades.

3. Video Surveillance has been a growing business,
with high profits and a stable industry structure.

4. 9/11 implied a further increase in surveillance
and people are increasingly concerned
about Big Brother nowadays.

5. Few people, however, express their concern
about the manufacturers of these cameras.

6. … And why should they?

7. Well, a technological shift is taking place…

8. … From analogue cameras…

9. … to digital cameras...

10. … which are connected over the internet.

13. Digital, IP-based CCTV offers many
advantages over the old systems…

14. Less wires and cabling…

15. … Implies a lower installation cost…

16. … and cheaper maintenance.

17. In addition to this, once cameras are digital,
surveillance can be made increasingly
intelligent by using software.

18. And maybe more importantly, the image
quality is better nowadays if you choose a
digital surveillance system…

19. But why should this change make anyone
concerned about the analogue camera
manufacturers...?

20. Well, shifts to digital technology have with no
exceptions created a lot of industrial turbulence…

21. Old, analogue companies have been destroyed or
severely wounded in industry after industry…

22. Let me give a few examples…

23. Kodak employed 140 000 people in 1988 - today less
than 25 000. In ten years the stock has declined
from around 90 USD to 2-3 USD.

24. The shift rendered Kodak’s film business obsolete.

27. The manufacturers of mechanical calculators
collapsed in the early 1970s when the shift to
electronics took place.

29. The typewriter companies collapsed…

30. Back in the 1950s and 60s, analogue radio
companies were extinguished…

31. … Transistor radios had removed the market for the
former technology.

33. About 1000 Swiss watch manufacturers died during
the period 1970-85…

34. … when digital watches became cult products.

35. While NCR survived the shift to electronic
cash registers, most established firms went
out of business.

36. Old TV manufacturers encountered a lot
of problems…

37. … when TV screens became digital.

38. The same
thing
happened
with
telephones.

39. Do I even have to mention the music industry?

40. Interestingly, digital video surveillance has to
a large extent been introduced and
developed by entrant firms…

41. … such as Axis, Mobotix, Indigo Vision etc.

42. Analogue companies like Pelco, Siemens,
Bosch Security, GE Security have so far
failed to dominate the new technology.

43. IP surveillance has grown rapidly over the last
five years, however, only about 20 percent
of all sold cameras are digital today…

44. This figure suggests that the displacement of
analogue cameras has just begun…

45. … and that some major industrial turbulence
will take place over the coming years.

46. This has been the case in all industries that
have shifted to electronics.

47. Why would the video surveillance industry be an
exception to this stunningly consistent pattern?

48. Image attributions

49. Christian Sandström is a
PhD student at Chalmers
University of Technology in
Gothenburg, Sweden. He
writes and speaks about
disruptive innovation and
technological change.
www.christiansandstrom.org
christian.sandstrom at chalmers.se