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The Sailing Ship Effect
Christian Sandström holds a PhD from ChalmersUniversity of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaksabout disruptive innova...
This presentation introducesand explains the concept of a     Sailing Ship effect.                                3
In order to do so, the concept of  a technology S-curve will be         described first.                                4
5
Performance              Time                     6
Performance A technology’s  performanceevolves slowly in the beginning.                    Time                           7
Performance A technology’s                      At some point, a  performance                       breakthroughevolves sl...
Performance         Limits of what is scientifically possible                    are reached and performance doesn’t      ...
When one technology is     displaced by anothertechnology, the pattern might   look something like this:                  ...
Performance              Time                     11
Performance                  The initially lower               performance makes it              seemingly irrational for ...
When the establishedtechnology is threatened, this   usually triggers existing  companies to improve it.                  ...
Such improvements are referred   to as a sailing ship effect.                              14
This notion comes from anobservation by Gilfillan (1935)who noted that the best sailing ships were produced when  steam sh...
A Sailing Ship effect can beillustrated in the following way:                                16
Performance              Time                     17
Performance              Time                     18
Performance                The threat of being                 displaced triggers                investments in the       ...
Performance     But it is too late and the new              technology wins in the long term.                         The ...
Some examples:                 21
http://www.hdcctvalliance.com/“The HDcctv Alliance is the  trade association for the   global HDcctv industry. HDcctv is t...
http://www.hdcctvalliance.com/  “The HDcctv Alliance is the    trade association for the     global HDcctv industry.   HDc...
Analog CCTV is threatened by   Digital, IP-based video        surveillance.                               24
As the image quality of IPsurveillance improved and HD   quality was progressivelyintroduced from 2008 and on,  this put p...
HDCCTV can thus be regarded   as a sailing ship effect.                               26
Image Quality                Time                       27
Image Quality                CCTV was introduced in the                 1950s and improved over                  the follo...
Image Quality                               IP Video started off with a                                  lower performance...
Image Quality                                             With HD Quality                                              in ...
Image Quality   Being increasingly threatened,            With HD Quality  CCTV companies make som final               in ...
Image Quality   Being increasingly threatened,            With HD Quality  CCTV companies make som final               in ...
Grübler (1990) describes a sailing effect pattern          in the automotive industry:                                    ...
Grübler (1990) describes a sailing effect pattern          in the automotive industry:“It is as if the industry itself ant...
Sources  Gilfillan, S.C., Inventing the Ship, Chicago, Follett                    Publishing Co, 1935.Grübler, A. (1990) T...
Find out more:www.christiansandstrom.org
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Technology sailing effects

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An introduction to the notion of Sailing SHip effects, along with some examples.

  • We appreciate your references to the HDcctv standard, but it looks like you didn't read the text that you quote within your presentation.

    HDcctv is a digital technology, not analog.

    HDcctv cameras are incorporated in IP-based digital surveillance systems better than IP cameras are, in many cases.

    HDcctv-based systems are more cost effective than IP-camera-based systems in the general case, and the economic fundamentals ensure that the advantages of HDcctv will only continue to increase.

    HDcctv is like USB for local-site transmission of HD video surveillance signals. USB interfaces co-exists with IP networks in the I.T. world, and there's every reason to expect HDcctv interfaces to co-exist with IP networks in the surveillance world.

    It is incorrect to assume that IP cameras offer intrinsic benefits for surveillance in the general case. IP video is very powerful, and in fact IP video already has attained nearly 100% market share in surveillance

    The question remains whether converting to IP in a camera, instead of elsewhere in a local site such as a DVR or multi-channel IP encoder, is most cost effective. The answer varies from case to case, and H. Sandstrom is incorrect to assume that IP cameras are always the right choice, or always will be the right choice.

    An informative analogy would be PCs and mobile phones. All of these offer connectivity to IP networks. And they all also offer other interfaces, including USB and HDMI and audio, for example. It is not optimum to carry every signal over IP networks. HDcctv is like USB for local-site transmission of HD video surveillance signals.
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Technology sailing effects

  1. 1. The Sailing Ship Effect
  2. 2. Christian Sandström holds a PhD from ChalmersUniversity of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaksabout disruptive innovation and technological change.
  3. 3. This presentation introducesand explains the concept of a Sailing Ship effect. 3
  4. 4. In order to do so, the concept of a technology S-curve will be described first. 4
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. Performance Time 6
  7. 7. Performance A technology’s performanceevolves slowly in the beginning. Time 7
  8. 8. Performance A technology’s At some point, a performance breakthroughevolves slowly in happens and it now the beginning. improves rapidly. Time 8
  9. 9. Performance Limits of what is scientifically possible are reached and performance doesn’t increase much more. A technology’s At some point, a performance breakthroughevolves slowly in happens and it now the beginning. improves rapidly. Time 9
  10. 10. When one technology is displaced by anothertechnology, the pattern might look something like this: 10
  11. 11. Performance Time 11
  12. 12. Performance The initially lower performance makes it seemingly irrational for firms dominating the previous technology to invest at an early point. Time 12
  13. 13. When the establishedtechnology is threatened, this usually triggers existing companies to improve it. 13
  14. 14. Such improvements are referred to as a sailing ship effect. 14
  15. 15. This notion comes from anobservation by Gilfillan (1935)who noted that the best sailing ships were produced when steam ships had already displaced them. 15
  16. 16. A Sailing Ship effect can beillustrated in the following way: 16
  17. 17. Performance Time 17
  18. 18. Performance Time 18
  19. 19. Performance The threat of being displaced triggers investments in the established technology, increasing its performance. Time 19
  20. 20. Performance But it is too late and the new technology wins in the long term. The threat of being displaced triggers investments in the established technology, increasing its performance. Time 20
  21. 21. Some examples: 21
  22. 22. http://www.hdcctvalliance.com/“The HDcctv Alliance is the trade association for the global HDcctv industry. HDcctv is the worlds only electrical interface standard for HD surveillance video, providing 100% digital transmission of uncompressed HDTV signals over existing coax. Seeing is believing!” 22
  23. 23. http://www.hdcctvalliance.com/ “The HDcctv Alliance is the trade association for the global HDcctv industry. HDcctv is the worlds only electrical interface standard for HD surveillance video, providing 100% digital transmission of uncompressed HDTV signals over existing coax. Seeing is believing!”Analog HDCCTV is a contradiction in terms! Why this notion? And why in 2009? 23
  24. 24. Analog CCTV is threatened by Digital, IP-based video surveillance. 24
  25. 25. As the image quality of IPsurveillance improved and HD quality was progressivelyintroduced from 2008 and on, this put pressure on analog CCTV companies. 25
  26. 26. HDCCTV can thus be regarded as a sailing ship effect. 26
  27. 27. Image Quality Time 27
  28. 28. Image Quality CCTV was introduced in the 1950s and improved over the following decades. Time 28
  29. 29. Image Quality IP Video started off with a lower performance. CCTV was introduced in the 1950s and improved over the following decades. Time 29
  30. 30. Image Quality With HD Quality in 2008, it was now better than CCTV. IP Video started off with a lower performance. CCTV was introduced in the 1950s and improved over the following decades. Time 30
  31. 31. Image Quality Being increasingly threatened, With HD Quality CCTV companies make som final in 2008, it was improvements to an obsolete now better than technology. CCTV. IP Video started off with a lower performance. CCTV was introduced in the 1950s and improved over the following decades. Time 31
  32. 32. Image Quality Being increasingly threatened, With HD Quality CCTV companies make som final in 2008, it was improvements to an obsolete now better than technology. CCTV. IP Video started off with a lower performance. CCTV was introduced in the 1950s and improved over the following decades. Time 32
  33. 33. Grübler (1990) describes a sailing effect pattern in the automotive industry: 33
  34. 34. Grübler (1990) describes a sailing effect pattern in the automotive industry:“It is as if the industry itself anticipates the approaching saturating markets and tries to gain ground by accelerating the pace of incremental innovations. Note that during periods of steady, regular high growth rates (the steep part of the automobile diffusion curve) the rates of technological change appeared to be much slower. Faced with almost saturated markets, the industry appears to be forced to rapidly introduce technological innovations as part of the competitive "elbowing" in the struggle for market shares.” 34
  35. 35. Sources Gilfillan, S.C., Inventing the Ship, Chicago, Follett Publishing Co, 1935.Grübler, A. (1990) The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures - Dynamics of Evolution and Technological Change in Transport, Physica-Verlag.
  36. 36. Find out more:www.christiansandstrom.org

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