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Page 1 of 26
Antipoverty transfers in the South
Armando Barrientos, Brooks World Poverty Institute, the University of Manc...
Page 2 of 26
Growth of large scale programmes providing income transfers to households
in poverty in the South
Globally ~ ...
Page 3 of 26
What explains the growth in antipoverty transfers?
Crises and adjustment in the 1980s and 1990s led to struct...
Page 4 of 26
The post-2015 development agenda
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
U...
Page 5 of 26
In international development and in the South, antipoverty transfers are
described with a variety of terms: s...
Page 6 of 26
The presentation:
What do we know about current practice?
Programme design, scope, and impact
Is the recent g...
Page 7 of 26
Diversity in design and objectives
 pure income transfers
Social pensions, child grant, family allowances [S...
Page 8 of 26
Innovations from poverty research
Programme design and implementation informed by poverty research:
Depth and...
Page 9 of 26
Implementation capacity gap between low and middle income countries
Village committee in Kalomo District in Z...
Page 10 of 26
Pension day in Lesotho
Katherine Vincent/2007
Page 11 of 26
Ensuring services provision for poor households in Uruguay
Page 12 of 26
Impact – short run effect on poverty
17.36
36.13
45.63
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Poverty headcount Pove...
Page 13 of 26
Impact – medium run effect on human development (nutrition)
1
0.65
heightfor age after 2 years heightfor age...
Page 14 of 26
Child labour outcomes from selected child-focused programmes
Bono desarrollo Humano
(Ecuador)
CSG (S. Africa...
Page 15 of 26
Poverty reduction effectiveness improves with growth and basic service
provision
Brazil: Sources of income g...
Page 16 of 26
Sustainability
Institutionalisation
Financing and Politics
Page 17 of 26
Institutionalisation
Transition from ‘development projects’ to ‘institution building’
Legal status – budget,...
Page 18 of 26
Financing and Politics
Most countries spend between 1 and 2 % of GDP in social assistance
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4....
Page 19 of 26
For many middle income countries, the challenge is not to secure larger budgets but
instead to consolidate i...
Page 20 of 26
‘Narratives’ of social assistance financing in the South
 Chile’s return to democracy in 1990 after sevente...
Page 21 of 26
Social Justice
What are the implications for social justice and social contracts in the South?
Page 22 of 26
Rawls ‘political conception of justice’ and the social minimum
Societies with a ‘plurality of world views’, ...
Page 23 of 26
Jeremy Waldron’s critique:
Social minimum must be ‘needs-based’, grounded on the recognition that “a certain...
Page 24 of 26
Rawls’ response was to spell out the social minimum in more detail:
In line with the difference principle, “...
Page 25 of 26
Conclusions
Rapid growth of social assistance in low and middle income countries
Diversity in programme desi...
Page 26 of 26
Social Assistance in Developing Countries
Cambridge University Press
September 2013
ISBN 9781107039025
Publi...
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Anti-poverty transfers in the South

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The impact and potential of anti-poverty transfers in developing countries.

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Anti-poverty transfers in the South

  1. 1. Page 1 of 26 Antipoverty transfers in the South Armando Barrientos, Brooks World Poverty Institute, the University of Manchester, UK a.barrientos@manchester.ac.uk Sidney Ideas, The University of Sydney and the Sydney Social Justice Network, 13th March 2014
  2. 2. Page 2 of 26 Growth of large scale programmes providing income transfers to households in poverty in the South Globally ~ 0.75 to 1 billion people reached by transfers Diversity in design In middle income countries transfers programmes reach a significant fraction of the population 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.1 SouthAfrica Brazil Mexico Ethiopia Fraction of householdsreached by social assistance Fractionof households reached by social assistance
  3. 3. Page 3 of 26 What explains the growth in antipoverty transfers? Crises and adjustment in the 1980s and 1990s led to structural deficits in wellbeing and protection in developing countries Democratisation and an expanding fiscal space have created favourable conditions in which governments can address these structural deficits Poverty research has developed knowledge and tools for innovative and effective antipoverty transfer programmes In Latin America: an epistemic change around poverty and exclusion
  4. 4. Page 4 of 26 The post-2015 development agenda 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 US$1.25 % exc.China 40.5 39.1 38.1 37.2 36.6 34.3 33.6 31.5 27.8 25.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 Povertyheadcountrate(%) Global Poverty at US$1.25 (%) 0.4% per year excluding China 1% per year excluding China World Bank data pessimistic optimistic ambitious
  5. 5. Page 5 of 26 In international development and in the South, antipoverty transfers are described with a variety of terms: safety nets; social protection, social transfers Social Policy Basic service provision Social protection Education, health, housing, social services Social insurance: contributory programmes addressing life cycle and employment contingencies Social assistance: tax financed programmes addressing poverty and vulnerability Labour market policy: ‘active’ and ‘passive’
  6. 6. Page 6 of 26 The presentation: What do we know about current practice? Programme design, scope, and impact Is the recent growth sustainable? Institutionalisation Financing and Politics What are the implications for social justice and social contracts in the South?
  7. 7. Page 7 of 26 Diversity in design and objectives  pure income transfers Social pensions, child grant, family allowances [South Africa’s Child Support Grant and Older Person Grant]  income transfers and asset accumulation Human development [Mexico’s Oportunidades, Brazil’ Bolsa Família] Infrastructure and asset protection [India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee, Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme]  integrated poverty eradication programmes [Chile’s Chile Solidario, BRAC’s CFPR-Targeting the Ultra Poor] Resource: Social Assistance in Developing Countries Database version 5 – available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1672090
  8. 8. Page 8 of 26 Innovations from poverty research Programme design and implementation informed by poverty research: Depth and severity of poverty, not just headcount ...ranking of the poor (extreme - moderate poverty) Poverty is multidimensional, ...duration matters (intergenerational persistence) Focus on households (agency and productive capacity) Information and incentives (conditions and co-responsibility)
  9. 9. Page 9 of 26 Implementation capacity gap between low and middle income countries Village committee in Kalomo District in Zambia responsible for the implementation of the Social Transfer Pilot Programme -2006
  10. 10. Page 10 of 26 Pension day in Lesotho Katherine Vincent/2007
  11. 11. Page 11 of 26 Ensuring services provision for poor households in Uruguay
  12. 12. Page 12 of 26 Impact – short run effect on poverty 17.36 36.13 45.63 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Poverty headcount Poverty gap Poverty gap squared Differencein differenceestimates of the poverty reduction effectiveness of Progresa/Oportunidadesin Mexico two years after its introduction Poverty reduction (%) 1997-1999 Datasource:Skoufias, E. 2005. ProgresaandIts Impactson the Welfare of Rural Households inMexico, Washington:InternationalFoodPolicy ResearchInstitute
  13. 13. Page 13 of 26 Impact – medium run effect on human development (nutrition) 1 0.65 heightfor age after 2 years heightfor age after 6 years Differencein height for age between OPORTUNIDADES treatment (joined 1998) and control (joined 2000) groups in 2000 and 2003 for 2-6 year olds difference(cm) GertlerandFernald[2006] VolIII ch. 2 Impactode medianoplazo del programa Oportunidadessobre eldesarrolloinfantilen areasrurales
  14. 14. Page 14 of 26 Child labour outcomes from selected child-focused programmes Bono desarrollo Humano (Ecuador) CSG (S. Africa) RPS (Nicaragua) PRAF (Honduras) Familias Accion (Colombia) Oportunidades (Mexico) PATH (Jamaica) SCT (Malawi) Tekopora (Paraguay) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Reductioninchildlabour(percentagepoints) Value of transfers as percentage of total household income
  15. 15. Page 15 of 26 Poverty reduction effectiveness improves with growth and basic service provision Brazil: Sources of income growth among households in the bottom quintile 2003 2009 Increase in work-related income per adult R$87 R$123 Increase in non-work related income per adult R$25 R$49 Increase in the number of adults per household 55% 58% Data Source: (Barros, Mendonça and Tsukada 2011)
  16. 16. Page 16 of 26 Sustainability Institutionalisation Financing and Politics
  17. 17. Page 17 of 26 Institutionalisation Transition from ‘development projects’ to ‘institution building’ Legal status – budget, operations, entitlements Strengthening implementation capacity Institutional coordination within government Domestic financing Ministries of Social Development – social protection networks
  18. 18. Page 18 of 26 Financing and Politics Most countries spend between 1 and 2 % of GDP in social assistance 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Australia(OECD) Djibouti(SSN) Malawi(SSN) NewZealand(OECD) Ukraine(SSN) UnitedKingdom(OECD) Botswana(SSN) Ireland(OECD) Kosovo(SSN) St.VincentandtheGrenadines(SSN) Armenia(SSN) St.Lucia(SSN) Uzbekistan(SSN) Morocco(SSN) Croatia(SSN) Namibia(SSI) DominicanRepublic(SSN) Moldova(SSN) CzechRepublic(OECD) Grenada(SSN) BurkinaFaso(SSI) Germany(OECD) Argentina(SSN) Georgia(SSN) Brazil(SSN) Serbia(SSN) Latvia(SSN) Greece(OECD) UnitedStates(OECD) Bulgaria(SSN) Tanzania(SSI) Bangladesh(ADB) Netherlands(OECD) Poland(OECD) Ecuador(SSN) Nicaragua(SSN) Vietnam(SSN) Denmark(OECD) ElSalvador(SSN) St.KittsandNevis(SSN) Benin(SSI) Belgium(OECD) Côted'Ivoire(SSI) Mauritania(SSI) Jamaica(SSN) Peru(SSN) Korea(OECD) KyrgyzRepublic(SSN) Venezuela,RB(SSN) Hungary(OECD) Sweden(OECD) CookIslands(ADB) Luxembourg(OECD) Uruguay(SSN) Niger(SSI) Paraguay(SSN) Indonesia(ADB) Maldives(ADB) Zimbabwe(SSI) Philippines(SSN) Cambodia(ADB) Lao(ADB) Malaysia(ADB) Vanuatu(ADB) Chad(SSI) Tonga(ADB) Bhutan(ADB) Soscial assistance expenditure as % of GDP SA/GDP(%)
  19. 19. Page 19 of 26 For many middle income countries, the challenge is not to secure larger budgets but instead to consolidate into fewer and more effective programmes (Bangladesh has over 95 social protection programmes; while Chile had 143 in 2002) For low income countries, low revenue collection capacity limits fiscal space International assistance can help overcome the large initial costs of new programmes The challenge is to improve revenue collection Domestic financing of social assistance in low and middle income countries depends mainly on consumption taxes and natural resource revenues
  20. 20. Page 20 of 26 ‘Narratives’ of social assistance financing in the South  Chile’s return to democracy in 1990 after seventeen years of dictatorship was led by a centre-left coalition of parties. The expansion of poverty reduction programmes was financed by a rise of two percent in the tax burden, distributed across corporate taxes and VAT.  In 1994, Bolivia was poised to privatise state-owned enterprises, especially in the energy sector. To facilitate public consent, the government proposed to maintain one-half of the shares in the privatised enterprises in a Special Fund to support regular income transfers to the adult cohort (aged twenty-one or over in 1995). The transfer became a non-contributory pension, the Bono de Solidaridad, payable from the age of sixty-five. The government of Evo Morales extended entitlement to the transfer to all Bolivians on reaching sixty years of age.  Non-contributory pension programmes introduced in Lesotho (2004) and Swaziland (2006) are linked to revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU).  Antipoverty transfer programmes in Zambia, Uganda and Ethiopia are financed by bilateral aid, through a Memorandum of Understanding between donors and the government. In Ghana, the initial financing of the LEAP (Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty) Programme was linked to HIPC debt cancellation, but bilateral donors also contributed.
  21. 21. Page 21 of 26 Social Justice What are the implications for social justice and social contracts in the South?
  22. 22. Page 22 of 26 Rawls ‘political conception of justice’ and the social minimum Societies with a ‘plurality of world views’, dependent on economic cooperation, but where the basic institutions are inequality-generating …need an overlapping consensus – political notion of justice A political notion of justice, to be sustainable, requires commitment to the basic institutions; but inequalities and disadvantage can place considerable strain on this commitment. A social minimum is needed to prevent the strains of commitment from becoming excessive In the 1971 ‘A Theory of Justice’, the social minimum is underdeveloped A social minimum is guaranteed by the government “either by family allowances and special payments for sickness and employment, or more systematically by such devices as a graded income supplement (a so-called negative income tax)” (Rawls, 1971: 243)
  23. 23. Page 23 of 26 Jeremy Waldron’s critique: Social minimum must be ‘needs-based’, grounded on the recognition that “a certain minimum is necessary for people to lead decent and tolerable lives” (Waldron, 1986: 21). Deprivation, “in the despair that characterises it, the defiance it excites, and the single minded violence it may occasion, … poses a simmering threat to the viability of the societies it afflicts. There is therefore a prima facie reason why any society should avoid the situation in which significant numbers of people are in need” (Waldron, 1986: 30).
  24. 24. Page 24 of 26 Rawls’ response was to spell out the social minimum in more detail: In line with the difference principle, “the minimum is to be set at that point which, taking wages into account, maximises the expectations of the least advantaged group. By adjusting the amount of transfers, … , it is possible to increase or decrease the prospects of the more disadvantaged, their index of primary goods…” (Rawls, 1971: 252). “The idea is not simply to assist those who lose out through accident or misfortune (although this must be done), but instead to put all citizen in a position to manage their own affairs and to take part in social cooperation on a footing of mutual respect under appropriately equal conditions” (Rawls, 1971: xv). The social minimum is intended to ensure that “the least advantaged feel they are a part of political society” (Rawls, 2001: 129) While “a social minimum covering only those essential needs may suit the requirements of a capitalist welfare state, it is not sufficient for what …I call a property-owning democracy in which the principles of justice as fairness are realized” (Rawls, 2001: 130). The social minimum is developmental not compensatory; about inclusion not just welfare; involves asset redistribution; social assistance not social insurance; priority not just sufficiency
  25. 25. Page 25 of 26 Conclusions Rapid growth of social assistance in low and middle income countries Diversity in programme design – path dependence and poverty perspectives Programme design and objectives of transfer programmes informed by poverty research Programmes show variation in effectiveness, but well designed and implemented antipoverty programmes have the potential to reduce poverty and inequality Sustainability depends on: Institutionalisation Shift to domestic financing Current trends suggest welfare institutions in the South will be based on social assistance and a citizenship principle, as opposed to social insurance and a contributory principle Embedding antipoverty transfer programmes signals inclusion of low income and informal groups, and a renewal of social contracts
  26. 26. Page 26 of 26 Social Assistance in Developing Countries Cambridge University Press September 2013 ISBN 9781107039025 Publisher: Kumarian Press

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