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• Confirmation Bias – Usually confirm rule by giving something that fits rule (i.e. 8 – 10 – 12). Need to try to disprove, in this example give something that doesn’t fit and see if it doesn’t fit (i.e. 1 – 7 – 13)
• Conjunction Fallacy Bias – H can’t be more likely than c or f. Joint probability of 2 things can’t be higher than the probability of the 2 things
• Hindsight Bias – Once an outcome has occurred, people have a hard time going back in time and accurately predicting the probability (over estimate actual outcome)
• Betty

1. 1. Amanda RobbenApril 27, 2013
2. 2.  Management – Execute against the tone anddirection already in place Leadership – to set the tone and direction for agroup, unit or organization
3. 3.  Engineers knowing something wrong and notforcing the issue Management glossing over foam issue due tonumerous other issues and history of foamissues Biases causing leadership to come to incorrectconclusions
4. 4.  There is a rule generating the following threenumbers. To discover the rule, suggestadditional sets of three numbers. 2 – 4 – 6
5. 5.  Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very smart.She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeplyconcerned with issues of discrimination and social justice,and she participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Rank the following 8 descriptions in order of probability(likelihood) that they describe Linda:a) Linda is a teacher in an elementary schoolb) Linda works in a bookstore and takes yoga classesc) Linda is active in the feminist movementd) Linda is a psychiatric social workere) Linda is a member of the League of Women Votersf) Linda is a bank tellerg) Linda is an insurance salespersonh) Linda is a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement
6. 6.  A manager who works for you hired a newsupervisor last year. You were well aware ofthe choices she had at the time and allowed herto choose the new employee on her own. Youjust received production data on everysupervisor. The data on the new supervisor areterrible. You call the manager and claim,“There was plenty of evidence that he was thewrong man for the job.” To what have youfallen prey?
7. 7.  Exemplary Leadership Inspiring a Shared Vision Envision a Better Future Enlist Others Enabling Others to Act Foster Collaboration Strengthen Others Modeling the Way Clarify Your Own Values Set the Example
8. 8.  Exemplary Leadership (continued) Challenging the Process Search for Opportunities Experiment and Take Risks Encouraging the Heart Recognize Contributions Celebrate Values and Victories
9. 9.  Characteristics of Effective Visions Desirable Feasible Clear Unique Have a lofty purpose Often related to somehow improving the humancondition
10. 10.  Find a common ideal Higher level values Animate the vision Stay positive, energetic, enthusiastic Uniqueness Use picture words Be true to self
11. 11.  Foster Collaboration Create a climate of trust Trust & Distrust spreads Trust first, but start small Facilitate Relationships Reciprocate, tit for tat Strengthen Others Enhance Self-determination Develop Competence & Confidence Set up small wins
12. 12.  Clarify Values Find your voice If not come from heart, people won’t follow Affirm shared ideals Tell stories to try & sell values Set the Example Live the shared values Walk the talk, don’t just speak good values Teach others to model the values Only ask people to do what you are willing to doyourself
13. 13.  Search for Opportunities Think of the status quo and ask yourself if it can beimproved Experiment and Take Risks Don’t be afraid of failure Consider a pilot test for big changes Get people ready for change before talking aboutwhat you want to change
14. 14.  Recognize Contributions Expect the best People perform to the level they are expected Personalize recognition Be creative with recognition Simple thank you Hearing nothing can be as bad as negative feedback Celebrate the Values and the Victories Create a spirit of community Celebrate in public so feel part of a group Get personally involved
15. 15.  Alice typically scores around 80 on weekly 100pt quizzes in one of her classes. One week shesets a goal of scoring 90. She scores 87. Betty typically scores around 80 on weekly 100pt quizzes in one of her classes. One week shedecides to do her best. She scores 83. Overall, who will be more satisfied