1.
The future of work
in Britain’s cities
Cities Outlook 2018

2.
In future, what will work
be like in Britain’s cities?

3.
It will be shaped by many trends
INCREASING
INEQUALITY
POLITICAL
UNCERTAINTY
GLOBALISATION
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
URBANISATION
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
TECHNOLOGICAL
CHANGE

4.
A key finding is that 3.6
million jobs are at risk of
being lost by 2030 – roughly
21% of all current jobs

5.
And 35 occupations are at
high risk – most are routine
or low skilled
sales assistants
and retail cashiers
administration
customer
service
storage
construction
and building

6.
EdinburghGlasgow
Newcastle
Hull
York
Bristol
Gloucester
Plymouth
Aberdeen
Bournemouth Brighton
Southend
London
Oxford
Cambridge
Birmingham
Nottingham
Liverpool
Manchester
Burnley
Blackpool
12.8 - 16.0
16.1 - 19.4
19.5 - 22.4
22.5 - 26.5
26.6 - 29.4
Current jobs in
occupations very
likely to decline
by 2030 (%)
But the risk of
jobs displacement
is not evenly spread
across the country

7.
Cities most at risk:
are less productive
are more reliant on welfare spend
have less knowledge-intensive jobs
and a lower share of high-skill workers

8.
This all seems quite scary

9.
But the world of work
has always been evolving,
with new jobs being created
and old jobs destroyed

10.
12% of the population
was employed as street
lamp lighters, domestic
servants, milk sellers and
laundry workers
in 1911

11.
Thanks to innovations such
as washing machines and
refrigerators, these jobs no
longer exist
in 2018

12.
Mining and manufacturing
accounted for more than
50% of all jobs in cities in
the North and Midlands
+
in 1911

13.
Due to globalisation, mining
and manufacturing account
for less than 20% of all jobs
in those cities
+
in 2018

14.
1 - 50
51 -100
101 - 200
201 - 400
900 (Slough)
Jobs change,
1911-2016 (%)
-50 - 0
EdinburghGlasgow
Newcastle
Bristol
Exeter
Aberdeen
Brighton
Southend
London
Oxford
Cambridge
Nottingham
Liverpool
Despite this, most UK cities
have 60% more jobs today
than in 1911

15.
But what new jobs will there be
by 2030?

16.
It’s hard to predict, but...
Just as in the past, the
ongoing evolution of the
world of work is likely to
create new jobs and make
other jobs more important

17.
Approximately
8% of the current
workforce is in
occupations that
are expected
to grow by 2030

18.
These occupations are evenly
distributed across the country
– there is growth potential
for every city

19.
But what can you tell about
the composition of jobs likely
to grow by 2030?

20.
Job growth is likely to vary
a great deal from city to city
0102030405060708090100
Bradford
Sunderland
Chatham
Telford
Gloucester
Hull
Portsmouth
Swansea
Birmingham
Middlesbrough
Barnsley
Norwich
Birkenhead
Luton
Dundee
Bournemouth
York
Coventry
Newcastle
Manchester
Crawley
Derby
MiltonKeynes
Leeds
Glasgow
Exeter
Brighton
Worthing
Warrington
Edinburgh
Aberdeen
Shareofcurrentjobsprojectedtogrow(%)
High-skill private
sector occupations
Lower-skill private
sector occupations
All publicly-funded
occupations

21.
Cambridge
Mansfield
Oxford
Reading
Warrington
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
10 15 20 25 30 35
Share of existing jobs that are at risk of decline, 2016 (%)
Shareofexistingjobslikelytogrow
thatarehigh-skilledprivatesector
jobs,2016(%)
But those cities least at risk
of job losses are more likely to
see higher-skilled jobs created

22.
Cities that are already
considered ‘left behind’ are
most vulnerable to the new
wave of change

23.
So what can be done?

24.
PREPARE:
Cities should ensure
young people get an
education tailored to
the changing world
of work due
to automation

25.
ADJUST:
People already in the workforce
should be given the tools to
learn new skills for an
evolving labour market

26.
COMPENSATE:
Those left worse off
need to be given the
support of a welfare
safety net

27.
Read the full report here:
www.centreforcities/outlook-18
Access our data tool here:
www.centreforcities.org/data-tool
Bakhshi et al. 2017, Future of Skills: Employment in 2030, London: Nesta and Pearson; ONS 2017,
Business Register of Employment Survey; Census 2011
University of Portsmouth, “A vision of Britain through time”; NOMIS, Business Register of
Employment survey
Sources