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The future of work in Britain's cities

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Scare stories about robots coming and taking our jobs are currently widespread. This presentation explores the potential risk of increasing automation in British cities, as well as the future of work, jobs and skills in 2030. It shows that while automation may compound the country’s economic and political divides, overall it’s likely to boost the number of jobs. A surprising finding is that British cities have been exposed to automation and globalisation for over a century, but almost all of them have seen jobs growth as a result.
This SlideShare is based on Cities Outlook 2018. This is the annual flagship report published by Centre for Cities, the UK’s leading urban economics think tank, dedicated to improving the performance of UK city economies. http://www.centreforcities.org/publication/cities-outlook-2018/

Published in: Economy & Finance
  • Artificial intelligence, automation and other technological changes are among the biggest economic issues of our age. They featured in the opening remarks of the Chancellor’s 2017 Autumn Budget speech and are identified as one of the ‘Grand Challenges’ in the Government’s Industrial Strategy. Politically, the continued fallout from the 2016 EU referendum and ever-increasing globalisation continue to dominate and divide urban Britain.
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The future of work in Britain's cities

  1. 1. The future of work in Britain’s cities Cities Outlook 2018
  2. 2. In future, what will work be like in Britain’s cities?
  3. 3. It will be shaped by many trends INCREASING INEQUALITY POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY GLOBALISATION ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY URBANISATION DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
  4. 4. A key finding is that 3.6 million jobs are at risk of being lost by 2030 – roughly 21% of all current jobs
  5. 5. And 35 occupations are at high risk – most are routine or low skilled sales assistants and retail cashiers administration customer service storage construction and building
  6. 6. EdinburghGlasgow Newcastle Hull York Bristol Gloucester Plymouth Aberdeen Bournemouth Brighton Southend London Oxford Cambridge Birmingham Nottingham Liverpool Manchester Burnley Blackpool 12.8 - 16.0 16.1 - 19.4 19.5 - 22.4 22.5 - 26.5 26.6 - 29.4 Current jobs in occupations very likely to decline by 2030 (%) But the risk of jobs displacement is not evenly spread across the country
  7. 7. Cities most at risk: are less productive are more reliant on welfare spend have less knowledge-intensive jobs and a lower share of high-skill workers
  8. 8. This all seems quite scary
  9. 9. But the world of work has always been evolving, with new jobs being created and old jobs destroyed
  10. 10. 12% of the population was employed as street lamp lighters, domestic servants, milk sellers and laundry workers in 1911
  11. 11. Thanks to innovations such as washing machines and refrigerators, these jobs no longer exist in 2018
  12. 12. Mining and manufacturing accounted for more than 50% of all jobs in cities in the North and Midlands + in 1911
  13. 13. Due to globalisation, mining and manufacturing account for less than 20% of all jobs in those cities + in 2018
  14. 14. 1 - 50 51 -100 101 - 200 201 - 400 900 (Slough) Jobs change, 1911-2016 (%) -50 - 0 EdinburghGlasgow Newcastle Bristol Exeter Aberdeen Brighton Southend London Oxford Cambridge Nottingham Liverpool Despite this, most UK cities have 60% more jobs today than in 1911
  15. 15. But what new jobs will there be by 2030?
  16. 16. It’s hard to predict, but... Just as in the past, the ongoing evolution of the world of work is likely to create new jobs and make other jobs more important
  17. 17. Approximately 8% of the current workforce is in occupations that are expected to grow by 2030
  18. 18. These occupations are evenly distributed across the country – there is growth potential for every city
  19. 19. But what can you tell about the composition of jobs likely to grow by 2030?
  20. 20. Job growth is likely to vary a great deal from city to city 0102030405060708090100 Bradford Sunderland Chatham Telford Gloucester Hull Portsmouth Swansea Birmingham Middlesbrough Barnsley Norwich Birkenhead Luton Dundee Bournemouth York Coventry Newcastle Manchester Crawley Derby MiltonKeynes Leeds Glasgow Exeter Brighton Worthing Warrington Edinburgh Aberdeen Shareofcurrentjobsprojectedtogrow(%) High-skill private sector occupations Lower-skill private sector occupations All publicly-funded occupations
  21. 21. Cambridge Mansfield Oxford Reading Warrington 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 15 20 25 30 35 Share of existing jobs that are at risk of decline, 2016 (%) Shareofexistingjobslikelytogrow thatarehigh-skilledprivatesector jobs,2016(%) But those cities least at risk of job losses are more likely to see higher-skilled jobs created
  22. 22. Cities that are already considered ‘left behind’ are most vulnerable to the new wave of change
  23. 23. So what can be done?
  24. 24. PREPARE: Cities should ensure young people get an education tailored to the changing world of work due to automation
  25. 25. ADJUST: People already in the workforce should be given the tools to learn new skills for an evolving labour market
  26. 26. COMPENSATE: Those left worse off need to be given the support of a welfare safety net
  27. 27. Read the full report here: www.centreforcities/outlook-18 Access our data tool here: www.centreforcities.org/data-tool Bakhshi et al. 2017, Future of Skills: Employment in 2030, London: Nesta and Pearson; ONS 2017, Business Register of Employment Survey; Census 2011 University of Portsmouth, “A vision of Britain through time”; NOMIS, Business Register of Employment survey Sources

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