Pathogen Management Modelling - APEG

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Pathogen management modelling presentation given at the APEG 201 conference held at Cefas.

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Pathogen Management Modelling - APEG

  1. 1. Pathogen management and modelling Nick Taylor Population Ecologist/Epidemiological Modeller
  2. 2. Disease monitoring and emergence • Fish Health Inspectorate: – 10 field inspectors – Visit 700+ APB’s per annum – Early identification of problems – Big picture perspective • Epidemiology and risk assessment: – ID potential threats – Assess the risk posed – Suggest mitigation measures
  3. 3. Emerging diseases
  4. 4. Pathogen testing • Reference lab (EU, national, OIE) for: – Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia – Infectious haematpoietic necrosis – Bacterial kidney disease – Gyrodactylus salaris – Spring viraemia of carp – Marteiliosis – Bonamiasis – Infectious pancreatic necrosis – Crayfish plague. • Pathogen culture, PCR, antigen ELISA and antibody testing.
  5. 5. Field studies • Assess distribution and scale. • Study pathogen life-cycles and dynamics in the real world. • Conduct classical epidemiological studies:  Cross-sectional  Cohort  Case-control • Identify risk factors.
  6. 6. Complex data and statistical tools
  7. 7. Pathogen life-cycles 1 2 3 4 5 6 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 Length (mm) 2.9 2.6 7 2.3 2 1.7 1.4 8 1.1 0.8 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03
  8. 8. Experimental studies
  9. 9. Pathogen challenge studies
  10. 10. Efficacy against pathogen 600 c1 550 c2 500 c3 t1 450 t2 t3 400 350 Abundance 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
  11. 11. Benefit to host
  12. 12. Environmental impact
  13. 13. Disease modelling
  14. 14. Optimal application and control policies 10°C 15°C 20°C 25°C pH 6.1 1 1 1 1 pH 6.4 1 1 1 2 pH 6.7 1 1 2 2 pH 7.0 1 2 2 3 pH 7.3 1 1 2 2 pH 7.6 1 1 1 2 pH 7.9 1 1 1 1
  15. 15. Summary • What’s the problems. • Extent and severity. • How to test for it. • What drives it. • What’s its life-cycle. • Effective treatments. • How to manage.

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