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Influenza flu pandemic models


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Influenza flu pandemic models.

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Influenza flu pandemic models

  1. 1. 10 Prominent Influenza Pandemic Models, by Claude PenlandDeath, Disease and Economic Loss Modeling in the 21st Century(read more at )This article will discuss some different types of influenza pandemic models. It is not intended to be acomprehensive look at the state of pandemic modeling, and instead is merely a discussion of someinteresting flu pandemic models.What is a pandemic? Pandemics are infectious disease epidemics that spread across a wide region.Recent pandemics include the flu pandemic of 2009 and the HIV pandemic. Historical pandemics havealso included outbreaks of tuberculosis and smallpox.The Society of Actuaries’ model evaluates the potential impact on the United States life insuranceindustry. Actuarial analysis looks at possible economic effects as well as potential excess insuredmortality.Military Medicine looks at a policy model for military public health officials. This Pandemic InfluenzaPolicy Model (PIPM) is a collaborative computer modeling effort between the Johns HopkinsUniversity Applied Physics Laboratory and U.S. Department of Defense. Incidentally, the U.S.Department of Homeland Security’s “Best Practices and Model Protocols” provides many interestingdiscussions of model inputs.The model by a catastrophe risk modeling firm, Risk Management Solutions (RMS), suppliesthousands of unique pandemic scenarios. These vary based on demographics, virus infectiousness,vaccine production and efficacy, lethality of virus and pandemic lifecycle. Additional information isavailable at “Managing Influenza Pandemic Risk”.FluTE is an open source model. The model is calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 2009pandemic A(H1N1) and 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) influenza viruses.Milliman, a consulting actuary, has modeled pandemics so that they may price mortality catastrophebonds. It is an actuarial model based on a frequency and severity approach.The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), which is at the Los AlamosNational Laboratory, has the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). EpiSimS models the U.S. asfifteen regions. Each region is composed of around 20 million synthetic individuals.At the INFORMS Simulation Society Winter Conference of 2009, a paper was presented on asimulation model for pandemic preparedness planning. The paper presents a geospatial and temporaldisease spread model for flu pandemics with particular attention paid to school closings.The Global Epidemic Model (GEM) enables testing of intervention strategies. It uses uses populationdata and airline travel data to create an air travel network among the major metropolitan areas of theworld. It then models the course of the potential epidemic as it spreads around the world.VirSim was developed to help support policy making. Governments can decide on interventionstrategies, and lost work and hospitalization effects on society are documented.The University of South Florida’s model performs simulations for development of mitigation strategies.Some other models include Georgia Tech’s, The University of Western Australia’s, a Biological Modelfor Influenza Transmission, a model of Japan and an Avian-human influenza epidemic model.Additional sources are, a pandemic simulation community website, NPR,The Scientist and MAA.