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The Importance of the Future


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Presentation from Casual Connect Seattle 2012 on The Importance of the Future, new opportunities to use business intelligence in the social gaming space.

Analytics is much more than data collection and dashboards. Predictive modeling enables behavioral segmentation that provides actionable insights not only through marketing but also game design to deliver greater player satisfaction.

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The Importance of the Future

  1. 1. THE IMPORTANCE OF THEFUTURELloyd MelnickCasual Connect2012
  2. 2. AgendaBackgroundCurrent state of analyticsAnalytics 2.0Summary
  4. 4. Lloyd Melnick
  5. 5. FiveOneNine Games Capitol FiveOneNine EW Scripps Broadcasting Games
  6. 6. Our Business Strategy GAME GAME DEVELOPER PUBLISHER • Campaign Story • Publishing launches next Program month launched this week
  7. 7. Analytics and gaming Statistical Tools Predictive Models Data Mining In-Game Analytics Tools 7
  8. 8. Analytics and Gaming In-Game Statistical Tools Analytics (Predictions) (Dashboards) • What • What will Happened? Happen?
  9. 9. Customer Lifetime ValueMost Important Metric Future Better Current Business Predicted Lifetime Decisions Lifetime Value Value $$$$
  11. 11. In-Game Analytics Tools DAU Session K-Factor Times Lifetime Virtual 2-day Goods retention Sold 7-day retention Visualization of Game Metrics 11
  12. 12. In-Game Analytics • Easy Visualization of high level metrics Executive Dashboards • Ability to address immediate concerns Ad-Hoc Reports • Where exactly is the problem? Query/Drilldown • What actions are needed? Alerts Kontagent, Mixpanel, Honeytracks, CollectTM & MeasureTM (by GamesAnalytics) 12
  13. 13. ANALYTICS 2.0
  14. 14. STATISTICAL Analysis • Are there statistically significant Correlations and CHI associations among factors? SQ • Are there statistically significant T-tests & ANOVA differences among groups in usage or monetization? • What are the factors (i.e.: gender, age) Regression Analysis that “significantly” impact revenue and by how much? • How are the high value players Outlier Analysis monetizing differently than most players? Excel, R, SAS, SPSS, STATA, SWRVE, PredictTM 14
  15. 15. Forecasting • How much revenue will we bring in next quarter? Time Series Analysis • How many users will we have in the future (near term)? Excel, R, SAS, SPSS, STATA 15
  16. 16. Predictive Modeling • Who is more likely to monetize? Logistic • Who is more likely to react to in-game Regressions, Decision messaging? Trees, etc. • What will be the lifetime of a user? • How long will it take for users to Survival Analysis monetize? (time to first purchase) • What factors impact the retention of the users? R, SAS, SPSS, STATA, PredictTM, MeasureTM (by GamesAnalytics) 16
  17. 17. Data Mining • Are there clear “segments” among our Clustering users that could be approached (Segmentation) Analysis differently? • Are there items that sell “together”? Association Analysis • How do users feel about our games? • What are the main topics of conversation Text Mining (Consumer for our Twitter followers? Sentiment Analysis) • Are comments on our Facebook page mostly positive or negative? SAS Enterprise Miner, SPSS Modeler, Weka, PredictTM 17
  18. 18. Simulation • How long do tasks in our game take to play on average? Monte–Carlo • What happens if we tweak the rules of Simulation the game? Excel, R, Risk Solver, SAS, SPSS, STATA 18
  19. 19. Optimization • What is the optimal price for the virtual goods? Price Optimization • What is the optimal allocation of resources for supporting the game? Linear Programing R, Risk Solver, Oracle Cristal Ball, SAS 19
  20. 20. SUMMARY
  21. 21. Huge opportunities to use analyticsbetterAnalytics is the foundation of business and games deepinsightThey help you optimize production and marketingdecisionsThey help improve the game and the user experienceAdding predictive modeling to in-game analytics lays thefoundation for additional optimization of business decisions
  22. 22. Thank you!Lloyd.melnick@fiveoneninegames.comTwitter: Lloyd Melnick