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Carat Australia: 10 Media Trends for 2016

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Carat Australia: 10 Media Trends for 2016

  1. 1. 10 MEDIA TRENDS
  2. 2. 2 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 hello As we embark on another year, the only constant in the world of marketing and communications seems to be that of change. Here in Australia, 2015 saw the ‘official’ arrival of Netflix, a telco outbid Foxtel for EPL rights, and two TV networks merged to become a new force to be reckoned with. In our 2015 Trends book, we predicted the rising importance of trends such as emojis, entertainment on demand, ad-free subscriptions and voice activated services. This year’s trends involve two big themes: • The rise of closed, competing ecosystems • The development of artificial intelligence and actionable measurement I hope you find the trends we explore in this book both interesting and thought provoking. Please feel free to discuss any of the content with me or a member of the Carat team. Warm Regards, Sam Hegg National Head of Product, Carat Australia @samhegg and thanks for taking the time to read our view on the TOP 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016.
  3. 3. 310 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 OUR CONTRIBUTORS STAYING UP TO DATE A big thanks from the team here in Australia goes out to Dan Calladine, our Global Head of Media Futures, working out of our Carat London office. His original 2016 trend predictions are the foundation of this work. Be sure to follow him on Twitter via @dancall. Thanks also goes to Christine McKinnon, our Head of Insights here in Australia, for her consumer-led approach to interrogating the relevance and implications of these trends on our shores. Finally, thanks to Tess Murphy, our Marketing Manager, for her contribution to content, editing, and managing the contributions of all involved. To keep up to date on what you need to know in the world of marketing, communications and technology, stay in touch via any of the following platforms: Follow us at @CaratAUNZ Listed as Carat Australia Visit www.carat.com.au To receive our fortnightly e-newsletter, email marley.wirz@carat.com
  4. 4. 10 TRENDS WALLED GARDENS 7 THE RISE OF AD AVOIDANCE 11 THE EVOLUTION OF SEARCH 15 MESSAGING & NOTIFICATIONS 19 ALGORITHMS VS. CURATION 23 1 2 3 4 5
  5. 5. FOR 2016 SENTIMENT 35 DYNAMIC PRICING 39 TELEPATHY 43 7 6 8 9 10 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND RECOGNITION 31 MAPS & LOCATION 27
  6. 6. 7 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 WALLEDGARDENS1 Consumers are confronted with an overwhelming (and exponentially increasing) amount of content every day, particularly in the online space. The authors of that content – brands, publishers, their friends – are all battling for a slice of that consumer’s finite amount of attention. Distraction is everywhere, and dwell time is rapidly dwindling. In response to this, we are witnessing a resurgence of the ‘walled garden’ online. Walled gardens are closed online eco-systems where the publisher has complete control over all applications, content, and media. They are also able to restrict access to non- approved applications or content. Examples of walled gardens include Snapchat Discover, Facebook Instant Articles, Twitter Moments, and the ‘YouTube for Kids’ app. Walled gardens often occur within apps based on the ease and speed of use. The incentive for publishers to implement walled gardens is two pronged: firstly, and most simply, the ability to keep their audience in one place for longer, given they can browse third-party content without ever leaving the platform. This minimises potential for distraction, and maximises the publisher’s share of engagement and time spent, enhancing their ability to monetise their content. Secondly is the ability to gather valuable consumer data. Consumers within a walled garden have a persistent and unique ID in the form of a pixel that allows the publisher or platform owner to track, engage, and better monetise the user in their content consumption. Perhaps the best example of this is Facebook. Their requirement for users to log in across all devices in order to access the platform means they know exactly who their users are, the content they consume, and on what device. The benefit to the consumer is a more relevant and seamless experience, as seen with Facebook’s highly targeted, contextually relevant advertising. The level of publisher control also means that advertising must adhere to set standards that are highly mindful of the user experience. As a result, native advertising tends to dominate. WALLED GARDENS 1
  7. 7. 8 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS STATUS IN AUSTRALIA Facebook’s Instant Articles landed in Australia mid-2015, with key publishers Buzzfeed and The Guardian securing launch partnerships with the platform as a step towards a smarter content distribution strategy. Uptake of Twitter Moments has been slow due to the current cost to advertisers; currently this is being pioneered by key players in the film and entertainment space. We have seen strong uptake of Snapchat Discover locally with NewsLifeMedia, CNN, MTV, Daily Mail and VICE as partners. In addition, brands like KFC, Telstra, Westpac, CommBank, and Mondelez-owned Sour Patch Kids are already using this platform to share stories and create conversation with their audiences. • Walled Gardens are here to stay: Walled gardens are likely to continue to proliferate at the expense of the open web. Brands will need to choose major partners and work with them to create deeper and richer solutions that will likely favour a bespoke native content approach for each. • Be prepared to adapt your programmatic approach: The return of walled gardens also has ramifications for programmatic advertising. Bespoke formats mean that programmatic advertising will become more challenging, and data-tracking delivery and performance more siloed. In response to this, Carat and Amnet are currently collaborating with publishers to resolve limitations and test native programmatic. • Leverage opportunities to evade ad blocking: The threat of ad blocking could also be seen as an incentive for publishers to move to walled gardens. On the open web, it’s easier to identify and block ads; within walled gardens, publishers have more control over how ads appear, making them more difficult to block with ad blocking technology.
  8. 8. 910 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 ALL WITHIN THE WALLS OF SNAPCHAT Some interesting Snapchat stats that show why marketers ‘want inside that walled garden’: 19% of American teens believe Snapchat to be the most important social network – that’s more than Facebook! 3m viewers per day — the average number for Cosmopolitan on Snapchat Discover 4b video views a day That’s the same number as Facebook! 340m impressions generated by iHeartRadio via Snapchat during its two-day music festival in mid-September Source: AdWeek, October 2015
  9. 9. 11 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 THE RISE OF AD AVOIDANCE THERISEOFADAVOIDANCE2 2 Every day, people weigh up the perceived value exchange between consuming ads and getting free content. Whether it’s FTA TV ads, a pre-roll video on YouTube, or an ad interrupting their favourite Spotify playlist, they have to decide whether or not the incentive of accessing that content free of charge justifies the investment of their attention in your ad. Up until now, the balance of power has tended to favour advertisers as the ‘gatekeepers’ of that content; the toll that needs to be paid to access the content ‘freeway’. However, the tables are starting to turn. The recent proliferation of cost-effective content subscription services – online radio, video on demand, music-streaming – means that advertisers are quickly losing their bargaining power. The lure of ad-free environments for a nominal cost – not to mention access to exclusive content e.g. Netflix Originals – is becoming a far more attractive proposition. Put simply, consumers are opting to pay the ‘toll’ in dollars, in order to make savings in the currencies of time and attention – our most valuable commodities in this ‘attention economy’. Even for those not willing to part with monthly subscription fees, the rise in popularity and accessibility of ad blocking technology means advertisers are still not on easy street. These changes in the local landscape are challenging advertisers to work harder and get more creative in determining the value they are able to add to the equation.
  10. 10. 12 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS STATUS IN AUSTRALIA The penetration of ad blocking technologies in Australia is estimated to be approximately 18%; that’s 3.7million people currently using these services.1 Traditionally, ad blocking software was largely the domain of the desktop but is now far more prevalent across mobile devices. Further illustrating this point, the day immediately following the launch of iOS 9, Apple’s latest operating system, two content blockers – ‘Peace’ and ‘Purify’ – entered the Top 20 app charts in both the US and the UK, with Peace even taking the number one spot in the US.2 Music streaming services, like Spotify and the recently-launched Apple Music, continue to aggressively promote their subscription services. Spotify estimates that approximately 30% of Australian subscribers pay for their premium service – notably higher than the global average of 25%.3 Global streaming giant Netflix, which now has over 69 million paying subscribers worldwide4 , popularised the idea of paying for ad-free video content rather than getting it for free, subsidised by advertising. 2015 saw the introduction of Netflix to Australia; having reached over 968,0005 homes already, it has far outpaced local competitors Stan and Presto. The average (global) subscriber household now watches a staggering two hours of ad-free content per day.6 With the introduction of new player, YouTube Red, to Australia in the not-too- distant future, this will throw yet another VoD option into the mix, creating an even more competitive and difficult-to-sustain market. • Remove reliance on standardised ad formats Publishers are placing increasing emphasis on ad formats undetectable to ad blockers. Native advertising & sponsorships, executed well, will ensure brands are able to continue their conversation. Alongside this brands should consider using their own products as vehicles to deliver additional content (think Coca- Cola’s #colouryoursummer campaign). • Brands to become publishers Purposeful content will become the currency of the attention economy. Brands can’t rely solely on traditional media outlets to generate this, but instead should invest creating or curating it themselves. Don’t underestimate the role consumers can play in this process either.
  11. 11. 1310 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 THE PENETRATION OF AD BLOCKING TECHNOLOGIES IN AUSTRALIA IS APPROXIMATELY 18% OR 3.7MILLION 1 PageFair, August 2015 2 The Guardian, September 2015 3 Mediaweek, August 2015 4 Huffington Post: Tech, October 2015 5 Roy Morgan, October 2015 6 BTIG Research, April 2015
  12. 12. 15 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 THEEVOLUTIONOFSEARCH3 Search is rapidly evolving, becoming more sophisticated (and admittedly, more complex) every day. This should be music to the ears of users, who will be increasingly able to reap the benefits of search functionality that is both more platform-specific and user-specific, offering unprecedented levels of personalisation. Given the proliferation of connected devices, it should come as no surprise that more Google searches now take place on mobile devices than on computers in ten countries, including the US and Japan.1 This change in device preference has a broader ‘ripple effect’ on the search industry. More search on mobile means more voice search via the likes of Google Now or Cortana, more visual search via Blippar or Pinterest, and more location- based search via Yelp or LonelyPlanet for example. All this creates not only a wealth of opportunities for personalisation, but also innovation. For yet another example of the impact of users’ love of mobile search, look no further than the fact it is now possible to search content within mobile applications, rather than being ‘limited’ to the web alone. This will soon start to roll out across wearable devices and augmented reality, becoming increasingly user-friendly and further engrained in our everyday lives. The rise in popularity of personal assistant apps will also have an impact on the way we search. Rather than waiting to be told what a user is searching for, personal assistant apps – such as Facebook’s mysterious ‘M’, Google Assistant, or the beloved ‘Siri’ – will specialise in anticipating user needs and providing prompts. With the hotly anticipated mainstream arrival of artificial intelligence, the predictive abilities of these ‘PAs’ will only be further enhanced. Imagine a world where after missing a flight, all it takes is a voice driven query to your PA to have them shop for and buy new flights and accommodation (based on your brand, price, and historical preferences), cancel meetings and apologise to the family. Not quite as exciting as that prospect, but still important, is the continuing trend towards understanding how search works with other digital and offline channel via attribution. Paid search especially, is too-often looked at in silo, invariably inflating and/or deflating its collective contribution to effectiveness. 3 THE EVOLUTION OF SEARCH 1 Google Inside AdWords, 2015
  13. 13. 16 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 STATUS IN AUSTRALIA In this bold new world, search or app optimisation will no longer be for the sole purpose of gaining a higher ranking in web or app store SERPs as a way of driving more prospects to your owned assets. Instead, advertisers will be going out to proactively find consumers, wherever they might be. Advertisers’ products, brand information, and pricing data will all need to be flexible enough to reach users anywhere – whether via smartphone, social media, wearable device, gaming console, Occulus Rift etc. The best among them will do so intuitively, before the need even is realised. TECHCRUNCH.COM DEMONSTRATES THE NOT-SO- DISTANT FUTURE OF SEARCH — The Car Repair Scenario Future search bot: Hey Dan, your car is reporting that your brake pads need replacement. Would you like me to schedule a service appointment? Future Dan: Good call. Please do. Search bot: Sure thing, Dan. There are five mechanics within a 2.5km radius of your house that have good reputations. Shall I get you quotes from them? Dan: Sure. Search bot: Looks like Jay’s Auto will be the most affordable option, but they don’t have available appointments until Thursday at 3:30pm next week. Jim’s Garage is $30 more, but can take you tomorrow at 11:00am or 2:30pm. Do you have a preference? Dan: Let’s go with Jim’s at 11am tomorrow. Search bot: I’ve booked you at Jim’s Garage at 11am. I’ll let you know tomorrow morning when it’s time to leave. Source: Techcrunch, September 2015
  14. 14. 1710 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS Cross-platform functionality is mandatory: Ensure that your brands are visible to as many technologies as possible, with a seamless user experience across all. Invest in advertising and marketing technology: Technology that understands path to conversion online and offline, de-duplicated across search, digital media, social, apps, and direct traffic is essential. Think Doubleclick Search, Google Analytics, and Google’s Mobile SDK. Invest in forward-thinking marketers and agency partners: Don’t limit yourself to a single discipline – look for learnings from a range of agency partners across multiple disciplines such as data, technology, creative and analytics. Paid search prices will rise: As organic search becomes more complex, paid search prices for generic keywords is likely to rise. It’s also likely to be harder for new brands to cut through, which will be an issue if their strategies are driven solely by search – diversification is essential.
  15. 15. 19 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 MESSAGING&NOTIFICATIONS4 4 MESSAGING & NOTIFICATIONS The way people communicate has changed dramatically in the last decade, driven predominantly by the ubiquity and immediacy of smartphones. This shift in behaviour has seen the popularity and uptake of instant messaging services skyrocket. In 2015, more messages were sent than emails, according to Juniper Research1 . In addition to the big global players such as WhatsApp (900m monthly active users), WeChat (650m), Facebook Messenger (800m), and Viber (236m), a number of newer messaging services have emerged to cater to massive consumer demand.2 New battle lines being are being drawn as newcomers including iMessage, Kik, Line, and Jott make their mark on the category. At their core, these apps offer simple text messaging services, however they are rapidly evolving in response to changes in user behaviour. For example, messaging apps are now becoming far more visual, allowing users to share everything from images to videos, reflecting broader shifts in the way we communicate via technology. The evolution of messaging apps has also created another layer of functionality – integration with other service providers. For example, in China you can use WeChat (their most popular messaging service) to book a cab with the Didi Kuaidi taxi company. They have also integrated with online payment provider, AliPlay, to make paying for your cab as quick and easy as calling one. WeChat is now even powering communication in some towns in China, enabling users to use the app to book doctor’s appointments and flights, or even report incidents to the police. Facebook has been testing its new digital personal assistant service – ‘M’ – within Messenger, which can complete tasks and find information on your behalf. It can purchase items, get gifts delivered to your loved ones, book restaurants or travel arrangements, make appointments and more. 1 Juniper Research, September 2015 2 Statista Statistics Portal, September 2015
  16. 16. 20 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 NOTIFICATIONS Notifications are predicted to be the starting point for all interactions on smart phones 60 notifications per day — the average number for Android users, currently increasing at an unprecedented rate 5.5 messaging apps — the average number of messaging apps a user interacts with on a weekly basis 60% of notifications are social messages (almost 40 per day) Facebook & WhatsApp represent an astounding 79% of all messaging by volume Source: Techcrunch, April 2015
  17. 17. 2110 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS STATUS IN AUSTRALIA While Eastern countries are leading the charge in frequency of usage (almost double that of Western users)1 and service bundling, there are significant differences in the way the East and West use messaging services. Australia’s favourite messaging apps (Viber currently has the top spot with a unique mobile audience of 2.348m)2 are used for just that – messaging; our local market leaders all offer communication as their core functionality. While the local market is beginning to test the waters with additional functionality, which is expected to lead to incremental increases in average sessions per user, it is unlikely we will reach the scale of functionality seen in Eastern countries. The mass uptake and evolution of messaging services has major implications for brands if they want to continue to have a presence in consumers’ digital conversations. Evolve your customer support offering: At a practical level, brands should look to evolve their customer support offerings beyond existing channels to include new messaging platforms. They will also need to ensure their content fits into the new world of messaging, from enabling ‘share’ functionality to extend to these apps, to exploring full integration of content within the apps themselves. Take note of your surroundings: It is not just a case of producing content that works on different mobile operating systems; it has to work with the ecosystems and protocols of different app platforms to reflect the changing way people communicate. 1 App Annie, December 2015 2 Nielsen, 2015
  18. 18. 23 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 ALGORITHMSVS.CURATION5 Every single minute, 400 hours of new video is uploaded to YouTube1 , Facebook users share nearly 2.5 million pieces of content, 347,222 new Tweets are sent, and nearly 220,000 new Instagram photos are posted2 . Users naturally need help navigating this veritable avalanche of new information. Algorithms have emerged as a popular and efficient way to do so, surfacing content – songs, news, videos, shopping, and more – that, based on their previous online behaviour, should be of interest to them. Algorithms are getting smarter and more finely tuned every day, making newsfeeds ever more nuanced and contextually relevant. A smart algorithm should be able to predict new areas of interest based on previous behaviours. A poorly executed algorithm, however, can limit the scope of discovery considerably; tightening the sphere of focus by serving up ‘more of the same’. What even the best algorithms lack however, is the human element; the ability to overlay a filter of context or taste. An algorithm can recommend you something new based on your previous interests or what is broadly popular at the time, but it is not a ‘taste-maker’. It doesn’t drive the agenda, it responds to it. This is where curation comes in. In instances where advocacy, expert opinion, and advice are important i.e. music discovery, commerce, and news, there is now a feeling that curation can be a more effective solution. 5 ALGORITHMS VS. CURATION 1 Reelse, July 2015 2 DOMO, August 2015
  19. 19. 24 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 STATUS IN AUSTRALIA Algorithms are currently being used to varying degrees of success by most, if not all major publishers in Australia. Some of the most effective algorithms in this market however, are those being used by Facebook and eBay. The focus for most publishers moving forward will be finely tuning their existing algorithms to improve output. Curators, on the other hand, are experiencing a resurgence in popularity since being initially dethroned by automation. Twitter Moments, for examples, relies on human curators to serve up the best pictures, highlights, and headlines from any given ‘moment’ or major event, hand-picked to tell the most compelling story. Apple’s Beats 1 online radio station relies on a team of world-class DJ’s and music experts to help listeners discover new music. This is determined purely by taste, rather than factors such as ‘most-played’ or genre-matching. Pinterest even has a curated store within the app, with taste-makers selecting the most interesting products on the platform, rather than serving up a collection of the most ‘liked’ or ‘pinned’. It would appear that even in the era of automation, the human element and the idea of expert endorsement is still hugely important to consumers. Rather than either method being superior, curation actually works most effectively when used in combination with algorithms. Take Spotify for example. Users are able to have music suggested based on what they’ve listened to previously (automation based on algorithms), and can also follow music experts and artists for their recommendations and curated playlists (curation).
  20. 20. 2510 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Get to know the algorithms out there: Brands will need to develop an understanding of platform specific algorithms to ensure the content that they create and publish is optimised to work within its constraints. • Learn to work with curators: Curators are becoming increasingly important for bringing attention to new products. Brands need to learn to work with curators in creative new ways – for example, you can see this as a new alternative to SEO for gaining popularity and traction. • Make sure you pick the right one: Curation makes trust and authenticity even more important – picking the right curator is essential. The skill involved in curation costs money, so there will be opportunities to advertise in, or sponsor curated content. 400 hours of new video are uploaded to Youtube 2.5m pieces of content are shared to Facebook 300,000 new Tweets are sent 220,000 new Instagram photos are posted EVERY SINGLE MINUTE... Source: DOMO, August 2015
  21. 21. 27 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 MAPS&LOCATIONS6 As the world becomes more mobile, location – and by default, maps – are becoming increasingly important. One of the key drivers behind this trend, apart from the desire to find our way around quickly and easily, is the increasing emphasis placed on localisation. General information is rarely of any use these days, particularly for commercial products and services. Customers don’t want to know where all your stores are; they just want to be shown the one closest to their location. Online dating app users don’t want to be connected to love interests on the other side of the city, let alone the country; they want someone in their local area. Busy commuters don’t want to book just any cab; they want to be shown the one closest to them and track its progress on their smartphone. As time continues to cement its place as our most valuable (and scarce) commodity, we are always looking for the shortest distance from A to B, literally and figuratively. It comes as no surprise then, that maps are considered the future of localised search. With Google and Apple Maps dominating mobile devices, alongside innovations such as in-built navigation within cars and watches, people are using maps more than ever before. To meet the needs of an increasingly time-poor user, real-time map features are continually being developed. Google Maps now shows when a business is busiest, so people can time their trip to avoid lines. Google and Apple maps both provide transit directions alongside predictive travel times and traffic congestion measures. In fact, maps can and should be seen as their own ecosystems, rich in opportunities to power innovative location-based experiences for their consumers. For example, iFit in the US integrated Google Maps technology into their stationary fitness equipment to allow people to pick a virtual route and see their progress on the map as they run or cycle. Using StreetView and an elevation API, they have successfully created an immersive real life experience. 6 MAPS & LOCATIONS
  22. 22. 28 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 STATUS IN AUSTRALIA In addition to just plotting pins on a map through strong SEO and keeping their business details up to date, Australian brands across a multitude of categories are using maps for diverse applications. Carsguide recently introduced a new Trip Planner tool that uses location-based search through Google Maps to enable would-be car buyers to plot a route to see all their selected cars in a single day. Tourism Victoria worked with the Google Street View Trekker to map out beautiful and remote locations accessible by foot. The images taken were stitched into panoramic digital renderings and published on Google Maps, allowing interstate and international tourists to take a virtual trip to Victoria in order to better plan their trip to the state. Insights garnered from Google Maps are also being used to help companies improve service delivery. An Australian cancer service provider uses Google Maps to connect patients with their closest support groups and cancer services. They also recently used it to research distances patients had to travel to access essential healthcare, information which then helped them advocate for improvements in treatment and support. Then there are the simple but effective mandatories; retail advertisers BWS and Big W use dynamic mobile display units and geo-location technology to integrate maps within ad units showing users the distance to the nearest store. Facebook has also integrated geo-location ads into their offering for local stores.
  23. 23. 2910 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 AMONG THE TOTAL MOBILE POPULATION... IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS Get Creative: Brainstorm new ways to use maps for business planning, real-time intelligence and customer engagement. Make sure your SEO is in order: The number of consumers going online to find a local business continues to grow every day. With this hyper-local digital trend reshaping business, companies of all shapes and sizes must have a strong SEO presence that drives traffic online and instore. View the journey as an opportunity: Consumers look at maps when planning shopping trips and experiences – brands should see journey planning as part of a communications strategy. 1 IN 4 ARE INTERESTED IN LOCATION BASED MARKETING Source: Nielsen, September 2015
  24. 24. 31 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEANDRECOGNITION7 Sci-fi fans rejoice; Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one step closer to mainstream. A super computer named Eugene Goostman has successfully fooled a human judging panel into thinking it was a thirteen year old boy, becoming the first machine in history to pass the iconic Turing Test. The 65 year-old Turing Test evaluates a machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Eugene’s success is both a ground-breaking and controversial milestone in the field of Artificial Intelligence. AI is now being applied to allow people and objects to be recognised, both in broad ways such as gender and approximate age, but also in ever more precise and complex ways. As part of its extensive machine vision research to improve facial recognition, Facebook has developed a new algorithm that can recognise people based on attributes like hair, personal style, and body shape. While still in its infancy, Google Photos boasts that it lets you “search by what you remember about a photo, no description needed”, using search criteria such as ‘find the photo of me at the beach’. Visual discovery app, Blippar – which uses image recognition to deliver content and information on items in the physical world – can now recognise branded items using attributes beyond the logo alone. At the simpler end of the spectrum, Pinterest has introduced visual search to help users find ‘visually similar results’ to a particular image. Key industry players are investing heavily in AI as a mechanic to help users sort through and categorise the deluge of content out there; the ability of these ‘intelligent systems’ to recognise and distinguish between objects in an image is absolutely integral to their success. 7 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND RECOGNITION
  25. 25. 32 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS STATUS IN AUSTRALIA Locally, Shazam has partnered with Digimarc, Universal Pictures, Southern Cross Austereo and Warner Bros to launch its visual recognition functionality, able to transform static images into ‘dynamic pieces of content’ via the Shazam app. This functionality enables brands to deliver content that supplements above-the-line (ATL) activity to add an engagement and response-led layer to brand campaigns. Outside of the advertising space, we see AI being applied to make a positive difference. For example, Marita Cheng, 2012’s Young Australian of the Year, has developed ‘Aipoly’ – an app that uses AI to help the blind to ‘see’. The apps uses ‘convolutional neural networks’ to deconstruct images, analyse them, and then describe them verbally. • Image is everything: It is now more important than ever for brands to ensure that all associated imagery and assets (i.e. design, packaging and logo) are as distinctive as possible. • Do what you can now to prepare for the future: To make way for the developments set to be delivered by AI, such as the ability to predict and service consumer wants and needs, brands can leverage existing capabilities afforded by data and targeting to demonstrate relevance.
  26. 26. 3310 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 AI HAS REACHED THE POINT THAT A ‘SUPER COMPUTER’ HAS BEEN ABLE TO FOOL HUMANS INTO THINKING IT WAS A THIRTEEN YEAR OLD BOY TO PASS THE ICONIC TURING TEST. IN THE FIELD OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, THERE IS NO MORE ICONIC AND CONTROVERSIAL A MILESTONE Prof. Kevin Warwick, The University of Reading “ “
  27. 27. 35 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 SENTIMENT8 The world of social media is all about self-expression; in this space, we have an unlimited capacity to share our emotions through a variety of channels and mechanics. However, this wealth of information lies largely untapped due to the limited ability of the platforms that house it, such as Facebook, to interpret the meaning behind what’s being shared. Sentiment, much like images, has always been a difficult thing to interpret. While automated tools such as Radian 6 and Sysomos have made progress towards a better understanding of sentiment, they continue to struggle with understanding integral elements such as context, tone, slang, and double negatives. In 2015, we saw a variety of changes implemented in major social platforms to allow users to express their emotions more explicitly, in a manner that can be – to a degree – quantified. There is no better example than Facebook’s new reaction test, which allows users to show their reaction with more than just the standard ‘Like’. The six emoji reactions are ‘Love’, ‘Haha’, ‘Yay’, ‘Wow’, ‘Sad’, and ‘Angry’, and should make it easier to interpret the sentiment behind the ‘Like’. Scary as it may be, Emojis are actually our best (or rather, simplest) hope in the struggle to accurately interpret sentiment. For example, users can now search for Emojis in Instagram captions and the text descriptions of YouTube videos, using them as rudimentary classifications of content tone. The most exciting aspect of this development for brands is that it will further allow brands and platforms to gauge how consumers feel about them, their products and their ads, and ideally adapt accordingly. 8 SENTIMENT
  28. 28. 36 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS STATUS IN AUSTRALIA In 2015, we saw a partnership between News Corp and social video ad platform, Unruly, to bring emotional programmatic targeting to Australia (they were later acquired by them globally). Emotional programmatic targets the consumers most likely to experience a strong emotional connection to a specific video, the intent being that videos will only be served to ‘prime targets’ – those most likely to emotionally engage with the content – as determined by the Unruly Share Rank. Interestingly this kind of sentiment analysis is also being utilised by stock traders to understand whether or not there is positive or negative sentiment around a particular stock. While this notion isn’t entirely new, the continued development of the mechanics of expression and analysis will help make this information more valuable and ideally more viable in the future. Try not to fixate on achieving (only) positive feedback: Whilst increased expressiveness will allow brands to better gauge consumer sentiment, it also presents itself as a red herring in that brands may become fixated on achieving ‘positive’ feedback. With this in mind, it’s recommended brands do not set rigid KPIs around sentiment and instead look for richer insights in the information gathered. The days of day-part targeting could be numbered: While advertisers were previously able to hypothesise mood and emotional state based on the time of day i.e. more optimistic in the morning or seeking distraction in the afternoon slump, sentiment analysis could potentially make this more of an exact science in the future. Emotional programmatic is here to stay: Ad targeting based on desired emotional response is expected to become more prevalent in the future, delivering not only in emotional engagement metrics, but also core business KPIs such as recall and purchase intent.
  29. 29. 3710 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 RIGHT MINDSET, RIGHT MOMENT: TELEFONICA RESEARCH HAS PUBLISHED A REPORT SHOWING RESEARCHERS ARE ABLE TELL FROM A SMARTPHONE USERS’ MOBILE ACTIVITY WHETHER OR NOT THE USER IS BORED, WITH AN 83% ACCURACY RATE. PARTICIPANTS WERE THEN SENT NOTIFICATIONS RECOMMENDING CONTENT ON BUZZFEED. THOSE USERS THAT HAD BEEN IDENTIFIED AS BEING IN A ‘BORED’ STATE WERE MORE LIKELY TO READ THE SUGGESTED CONTENT. Source: Trend Watching, 2016 “ “
  30. 30. 39 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 DYNAMICPRICING9 The pricing of goods and services is becoming increasingly flexible and dynamic thanks to the advances made in real time data use. While it’s largely considered to have had its start in the airline industry, dynamic pricing has since permeated a range of other industries. Uber certainly helped pave the way by employing real-time pricing based on supply and demand for their ride service. Since then, dynamic pricing has moved on to take the retail industry by storm, making big waves particularly in the e-commerce category. ‘Repricing automation’ – automatic pricing updates based on matching or under-cutting competitor price points – has until now typically been a luxury reserved for big-name retailers only, however it is now becoming more accessible to online retailers of all sizes. Online retail is the ideal industry for dynamic pricing given its fast-paced and adaptable nature. It is far easier for online retailers to update their prices – all it takes is the click of a button – than it is for bricks and mortar retailers. There is also the added benefit of consumer data and tracking. Online retailers are able to see a great deal more information about a shopper, such as purchase history, location, operating system etc – and should ideally be able to leverage this data to offer more personalised pricing, promotions, and incentives. Industries such as airlines, hotels and event-based booking companies are all experts at leveraging consumer data to become more profitable. Furthermore, they have evolved their use of data to develop strategies to hone in on specific needs across customer segments. 9 DYNAMIC PRICING
  31. 31. 40 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 STATUS IN AUSTRALIA The airline industry continues to be a leader in dynamic pricing practice, applying multiple strategies to ensure they stay competitive. These include pricing determined by customer segments, peak times for travel and peak times for booking. Retail giants Amazon and eBay both utilise dynamic pricing to help sellers be as profitable as possible, while providing a quick and easy solution for buyers The popularity of Uber is also on the rise, as is the price of every trip; a surge in demand translates to a surge in fee charged. By leveraging the changes in supply and demand, Uber has been able to alter its pricing on a daily, if not hourly basis. Generally these higher rates are applied during peak times on weekends, holidays, big events, and in inclement weather. This price surge can: • Reduce demand for cars (less people wanting to pay a higher premium); • Create a new supply (more incentive for new drivers to hit the road); • Or shift supply (drivers) to areas of higher demand.
  32. 32. 4110 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS • Competition will increase beyond e-commerce: As real time data systems evolve and improve, so too will the diversity of applications for dynamic pricing outside e-commerce alone. Innovations such as the introduction of electronic shelf labels, for example, will also help level the playing field for bricks and mortar retailers, enabling them to better compete with e-commerce sites. • Pressure will increase on all aspects of the consumer journey: The concept of dynamic pricing will increase pressure on the other service elements within the retail experience, including customer service, shipping speed, return policies, etc. It is important that the full user experience is evaluated and the competition in this space also understood. • Data needs to be up to date: Brands need to make sure they are in a position to measure and act on the most relevant customer and external data. STRATEGIC DYNAMIC PRICING In retail, strategic dynamic pricing is based on multiple market signals: COMPETITOR PRICES BRAND PERCEPTION SUPPLY & DEMAND PRICE ELASTICITY DATE, TIME OF DAY CUSTOMER LOCATION Source: Marketyze, June 2015
  33. 33. 43 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 TELEPATHY10 Facebook founder, Mark Zuckerberg famously said that the future of communication is telepathy; that technology will one day become so advanced that people will be able to send thoughts to their friends. While at face value the concept might seem unfathomable, it is actually not beyond the realms of possibility. Advances in the field of artificial intelligence, such as those we touched on in our AI and Recognition section, mean the capacity of technology to interpret non-traditional cues – those outside written or spoken commands – is improving every day. Two years ago, scientists at the University of Washington even managed to harness the brain signal from one person and use it to stimulate the motor cortex of another, inducing them to press the fire button on a computer game. Cue ‘singularity’ theorists. In actual fact, there is already assistive technology available in market that allows communication in the absence of written or spoken commands, such as the equipment used by Dr Steven Hawking. On a simpler scale, wearable devices like smart watches and brain activity trackers are already collecting a great deal of the required data to power this new frontier. The future could very well be interaction via brain signals or the reading of physiological signs like your heart rate. Consider the opportunity that lies in something like recent Kickstarter success, Emotiv Insight. Emotiv Insight is a wireless headset that measures brainwaves and translates them into meaningful data, tracking attention, focus, engagement, interest, excitement, affinity, relaxation and stress levels. The opportunity for brands (and humanity, of course) is unprecedented. The next logical step though – and perhaps the most challenging – is the accurate interpretation and application of this data. 10 TELEPATHY
  34. 34. 44 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS STATUS IN AUSTRALIA Telepathic technology first made its way to our shores via Uniqlo’s ‘UMood’ offering in its Sydney store that analyses customers’ brain signals to suggest the perfect t-shirt to suit their mood. Developed by Isobar Australia, ‘UMood’ aims to improve the customer experience and drive increased purchase intent through profound and proactive personalisation. Across the globe, a hands-free Tinder app has been created for the Apple Watch; it relies on heartbeat to determine a left or right swipe – after all, the heart doesn’t lie. Researchers at Telefonica (one of the largest private telecommunications companies in the world) have even been able to identify when customers were bored or stressed, based on phone activity such as frequency of opening apps and intensity of use. While there may still be a long way to go with telepathic technology, we will continue to see new innovations and ways of connecting with brands in this space in the coming years as access to the technology improves. Telepathy can create deeper and more unique brand experiences: Together with image and sentiment recognition and dynamic pricing, telepathy demonstrates how AI is starting to be used to remove conscious human instructions, and provide an unconscious understanding between technology and people. Telepathy can give you a better understanding of your consumers: Telepathic technology can help brands determine a more holistic view of consumers, including reactions that they’re not able to articulate, enabling the creation of richer relationships.
  35. 35. 4510 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 DR. MICHIO KAKU, PROFESSOR OF THEORETICAL PHYSICS AT THE CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AND AUTHOR OF "THE FUTURE OF THE MIND” TALKS ABOUT THE INCREDIBLE IMPACT OF TELEPATHY: In the next 10 years, we will see the gradual transition from an Internet to a brain-net, in which thoughts, emotions, feelings, and memories might be transmitted instantly across the planet. Scientists can now hook the brain to a computer and begin to decode some of our memories and thoughts. This might eventually revolutionise communication and even entertainment. The movies of the future will be able to convey emotions and feelings, not just images on a silver screen. (Teenagers will go crazy on social media, sending memories and sensations from their senior prom, their first date, etc.). Historians and writers will be able to record events not just digitally, but also emotionally as well. Perhaps even tensions between people will diminish, as people begin to feel and experience the pain of others. Source: Huffington Post, May 2015 “ “
  36. 36. 46 10 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 WALLED GARDENS AdNews, ‘KFC Ventures into Snapchat Marketing’, June 2015 AdNews, ‘Snapchat Eyes Brand Dollars’, August 2014 AdNews, ‘CommBank Joins Snapchat’s Growing List of Brand Users’, August 2015 AdWeek, ‘Here are 6 New Snapchat Stats that Show Why Marketers Want Inside that Walled Garden’, October 2015 Forbes, ‘3 Things about Walled Gardens That Drive Publishers Up the Wall’, October 2015 THE RISE OF AD AVOIDANCE ADWEEK, ‘Users Revolt Against Pre-Roll’, April 2015 BTIG Research, ‘Netflix is Eating TV’s Dinner’, April 2015 Huffington Post: Tech, ‘Netflix Gained 3.6 Million More Subscribers in 3 Months’, October 2015 Mediaweek, ‘Spotify Australia and NZ MD Kate Vale on Where Australia Sits in the Global Market’, August 2015 PageFair, ‘The 2015 Ad Blocking Report’, August 2015 Roy Morgan, ‘Netflix Now in Over 1 in 10 Homes, Reaching 2.63million Australians Aged 14 and Over’, October 2015 TIME, ‘Here’s How Apple Could Change the Web Forever’, September 2015 The Guardian, ‘iOS 9 Adblocker Apps Shoot to the Top of Charts on Day One’, September 2015 THE EVOLUTION OF SEARCH Google Inside AdWords, ‘Building for the Next Moment’, May 2015 Techcrunch, ‘Facebook’s Messenger and the Challenge to Google’s Search Dominance’, September 2015 Wired, ‘Search Today and Beyond: Optimizing for the Semantic Web’, 2014 MESSAGING & NOTIFICATIONS App Annie ‘Top App Predictions of 2016’, December 2015 Juniper Research ‘Mobile and Online Messaging’, September 2015 Nielsen ‘Mobile Ratings Report’ 2015 Statista Statistics Portal, September 2015 Techcrunch, ‘Notifications are the Next Platform’, April 2015 Tencent Holdings ‘Third Quarter Results’, November 2015 ALGORITHMS VS CURATION Chaos Theory, ‘Man vs. Machine: Are Algorithms or Human Curation the Answer?’, December 2015 DOMO, ‘Data Never Sleeps 3.0’, August 2015 Fortune, ‘Would You Rather Have Apple’s Human Editors Filtering Your News or Facebook’s Algorithms?’, June 2015 Huffington Post, ‘When It Comes To Reputation, Judgement Trumps Algorithms’, December 2015 Reelse ‘Vidcon 2015 Haul: Trends, Strategic Insights, Critical Data, and Tactical Advice’, July 2015 Tubefilter, ‘YouTube Now Gets Over 400 Hours of Content Uploaded Every Minute’, July 2015 REFERENCES
  37. 37. 4710 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2016 MAPS & LOCATIONS Cloud Sherpas, ‘Case Study: CarsGuide.com.au Drives Improved Consumer Experience with Google Maps for Work’, 2015 CarsGuide, ‘Find the Right Car for You with the News Carsguide.com.au App’, May 2015 Forbes, Google’s Map Features Find Their Way into More Cars’, September 2015 See Further, ‘Drive Customer Acquisition, from Digital to Personal’, 2015 Tech Crunch, ‘Google Search Now Shows You When Local Businesses Are Busiest’, July 2015 Tech Insider, ‘Nine Ways to get The Most out of Google Maps’, December 2015 Nielsen, ‘The Telstra Smartphone & Tablet Index’, September 2015 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & RECOGNITION CMO, ‘Shazam Launches Visual Recognition Content Offering for Brands’, May 2015 CNET, ‘The Surreal Dreams of Google’s Image Recognition Software’, June 2015 Mumbrella, ‘Shazam launches visual recognition function‘, May 2015 MYOB, ‘Artificial Intelligence Changing the Future of Business’, September 2015 Social Media Today, ‘Why is Facebook so Keen to Develop its AI Capabilities?’, November 2015 University of Reading, ‘Turing Test Success Marks Milestone in Computing History’, June 2014 SENTIMENT AdNews, ‘Unruly and Newscorp Bring Emotional Programmatic Targeting To Australia’, December 2015 The Australian: Business Review, ‘Tapping Twitter to Gauge Stock Sentiment’, July 2015 Trend Watching, ‘5 Consumer Trends for 2016’, 2015 DYNAMIC PRICING CPC Strategy, ‘How Dynamic Pricing is Disrupting Online Retail in 2015’, April 2015 TotalRetail, ‘Why Dynamic Pricing is the New Standard in E-Commerce’, January 2015 TELEPATHY Business Insider, ‘This New Apple Watch App Uses Your Heartbeat to Decide Who Your Match is on Tinder’, July 2015 Digital Trends, ‘Facebook’s Future is Telepathy, Mark Zuckerberg Says’, July 2015 Emotiv, ‘Emotiv Insight: Brain Activity Tracker’ Luxury Society, ‘The Secret to Luxury Online for Millennials’, September 2015 Huffington Post, ‘7 Top Futurists Make Some Pretty Surprising Predictions About What the Next Decade Will Bring’, May 2015 PC World, ‘Clothing Retailer Uniqlo Uses Brainwaves to Match Customers with T-Shirts, October 2015

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