Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Policy Compass Workshop
Project Introduction
•1st
June 2015 URBUN
Agenda
Today! - Policy Compass Project Workshop
Introduction of Policy Compass Project
Methodology - Three Pillars of P...
Introduction of Policy Compass Project
• Policy Compass Project (FP7-ICT)
(September 2013~ September 2016, 36 Month)
26 Ma...
Introduction of Policy Compass Project
4WP4 – Berlin, Germany10 February 2015
• The main goal of Policy Compass is to deve...
Introduction of Policy Compass Project
1st
June 2015 UBRUN, UK 5
Three Pillars of Policy Compass
• The Policy Compass methodology pillars represent different views on
the Policy Compass p...
1st
Pillar - Evaluating Performance of Policies (EPP)
• EPP.1 Data discovery and processing
• EPP.2 Metrics definition.
UB...
1st
Pillar - Evaluating Performance of Policies (EPP)
• EPP.3 Metrics operationalization, visualisation and comparison
1st...
1st
Pillar - Evaluating Performance of Policies (EPP)
• EPP.4 Improving understanding of the data.
• EPP.5 Seeking explana...
2nd
Pillar - Building Causal Policy Models (BCPM)
• BCPM 1. Creating/refining causal models.
1st
June 2015 UBRUN, UK 10
2nd
Pillar - Building Causal Policy Models (BCPM)
• BCPM 2. Turning causal networks to Fuzzy Cognitive Maps.
• What is FCM...
2nd
Pillar - Building Causal Policy Models (BCPM)
• BCPM 3. Simulating FCMs and visualising impacts.
1st
June 2015 UBRUN, ...
2nd
Pillar - Building Causal Policy Models (BCPM)
• BCPM 4. Sharing knowledge and results.
• Both the FCM models and the s...
3rd
Pillar - Policy Impact Deliberation and Argument
Mapping
• PIDAM.1 Initiate and participate in deliberations using Adh...
Introduction of Policy Compass Project
1st
June 2015 UBRUN, UK 15
1st
Pillar
2nd
Pillar
3rd
Pillar
Policy Impact Modeling using
Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique in Policy Compass
16•1st
June 2015
• Formal Representatio...
Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique and Policy
Compass
17•1st
June 2015
• Obtaining Fuzzy Value
• by Experts’ judgment
• O...
Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique and Policy
Compass
18•1st
June 2015
• Weight between concepts
• by Experts’ judgment
•...
Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example
(1)
19•1st
June 2015
• Let assume that policy maker in government now wa...
Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example
(1)
20•1st
June 2015
• Possible scenarios for a policy maker
• Situation...
Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example
(1)
21•1st
June 2015
<Result for Situation 1>
<Result for Situation 2>
Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example
(1)
22•1st
June 2015
<Result for Situation 3>
<Comparing the Simulation ...
Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example
(2)
23•1st
June 2015
• Drug Policy – Strengthen or Weaken the probation ...
Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example
(2)
24•1st
June 2015
• Drug Policy – Strengthen or Weaken the probation ...
Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example
(2)
25•1st
June 2015
National
prohibition
Drug
acreage
Gaining Syndicate...
DEMO
Q&A with Short survey
26•1st
June 2015
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Policy compass workshop - 1st of June 2015

608 views

Published on

Policy Compass Workshop, 1st of June 2015
The main goal of Policy Compass is to develop a research prototype of an easy-to-use, highly visual and intuitive tool for social networks and eParticipation platforms, enabling citizens and public officials to easily create, apply, share, embed, annotate and discuss causal models, charts and graphs of historical data from trusted open data sources. The aim is to develop methods and tools that facilitate more factual, evidence-based, transparent and accountable policy evaluation and analysis.

http://policycompass.eu/

Published in: Data & Analytics
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Policy compass workshop - 1st of June 2015

  1. 1. Policy Compass Workshop Project Introduction •1st June 2015 URBUN
  2. 2. Agenda Today! - Policy Compass Project Workshop Introduction of Policy Compass Project Methodology - Three Pillars of Policy Compass Policy Impact Modeling using Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) in Policy Compass – Two Case Study Platform Demo Q&A with short survey 2
  3. 3. Introduction of Policy Compass Project • Policy Compass Project (FP7-ICT) (September 2013~ September 2016, 36 Month) 26 March 2015 WP4 – UBRUN, UK 3 www.policycompasss.eu
  4. 4. Introduction of Policy Compass Project 4WP4 – Berlin, Germany10 February 2015 • The main goal of Policy Compass is to develop a research prototype of an easy-to-use, highly visual and intuitive tool for social networks and eParticipation platforms, enabling citizens and public officials to easily create, apply, share, embed, annotate and discuss causal models, charts and graphs of historical data from trusted open data sources. The aim is to develop methods and tools that facilitate more factual, evidence-based, transparent and accountable policy evaluation and analysis. • How to realize this goal? Let’s visit the platform after presentation(alpha version) alpha.policycompass.eu Official Page policycompass.eu
  5. 5. Introduction of Policy Compass Project 1st June 2015 UBRUN, UK 5
  6. 6. Three Pillars of Policy Compass • The Policy Compass methodology pillars represent different views on the Policy Compass platform centred on the particular interests of typical end users • Evaluating Performance of Policies (EPP) • Building Causal Policy Models (BCPM) • Policy Impact Deliberation and Argument Mapping (PIDAM) 1st June 2015 6
  7. 7. 1st Pillar - Evaluating Performance of Policies (EPP) • EPP.1 Data discovery and processing • EPP.2 Metrics definition. UBRUN, UK 7
  8. 8. 1st Pillar - Evaluating Performance of Policies (EPP) • EPP.3 Metrics operationalization, visualisation and comparison 1st June 2015 UBRUN, UK 8
  9. 9. 1st Pillar - Evaluating Performance of Policies (EPP) • EPP.4 Improving understanding of the data. • EPP.5 Seeking explanation of policy impacts. =>Next Pillar 1st June 2015 UBRUN, UK 9
  10. 10. 2nd Pillar - Building Causal Policy Models (BCPM) • BCPM 1. Creating/refining causal models. 1st June 2015 UBRUN, UK 10
  11. 11. 2nd Pillar - Building Causal Policy Models (BCPM) • BCPM 2. Turning causal networks to Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. • What is FCMs? 1st June 2015 UBRUN, UK 11 A weight wij describes the strength of causality between two concepts.
  12. 12. 2nd Pillar - Building Causal Policy Models (BCPM) • BCPM 3. Simulating FCMs and visualising impacts. 1st June 2015 UBRUN, UK 12
  13. 13. 2nd Pillar - Building Causal Policy Models (BCPM) • BCPM 4. Sharing knowledge and results. • Both the FCM models and the simulation results can be saved under a user account and shared with others via social networks and web 2.0 channels. 1st June 2015 UBRUN, UK 13 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.80 0.55 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.20 0.67 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63
  14. 14. 3rd Pillar - Policy Impact Deliberation and Argument Mapping • PIDAM.1 Initiate and participate in deliberations using Adhocracy • Adhocracy was conceived as a cooperative discourse, delegation and voting software, which enables a collective, binding decision-making process online. • PIDAM.2 Transform structured discussions into argument maps using Carneades • PIDAM.3 Navigate argument maps using Carneades 1st June 2015 UBRUN, UK 14
  15. 15. Introduction of Policy Compass Project 1st June 2015 UBRUN, UK 15 1st Pillar 2nd Pillar 3rd Pillar
  16. 16. Policy Impact Modeling using Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique in Policy Compass 16•1st June 2015 • Formal Representation A weight wij describes the strength of causality between two concepts.
  17. 17. Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique and Policy Compass 17•1st June 2015 • Obtaining Fuzzy Value • by Experts’ judgment • Or based on historical data Very high -> 1 High -> 0.8 Medium -> 0.6 Low -> 0.4 Very Low -> 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 Fuzzified value
  18. 18. Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique and Policy Compass 18•1st June 2015 • Weight between concepts • by Experts’ judgment • Or based on historical data – Automatic option C1 C3 C2 C1 C2 C3 C1 0 1 1 C2 0 0 1 C3 0 0 0 <Relationship matrix> t0 t1 t2 t3 C1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 C2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 C3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 <Status vector based on historical data> C1 C2 C3 C1 0 w12 w13 C2 0 0 w23 C3 0 0 0 <Weight matrix> w12 w13 w23
  19. 19. Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example (1) 19•1st June 2015 • Let assume that policy maker in government now want to know the future impact of change in interest rate to stimulate the productive investment. Present State of Concepts Interest rate: 0.4 (low) Productive Investments: 0.2 (very low) Occupation: 0.8 (high) Inflation: 0.2 (very low)
  20. 20. Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example (1) 20•1st June 2015 • Possible scenarios for a policy maker • Situation 1. If the interest rate is kept in the same level in the future • Situation 2. If the interest rate decreases to date • Situation 3. Or if the interest rate increases Present State of Concepts Interest rate: 0.4 (low) Productive Investments: 0.2 (very low) Occupation: 0.8 (high) Inflation: 0.2 (very low)
  21. 21. Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example (1) 21•1st June 2015 <Result for Situation 1> <Result for Situation 2>
  22. 22. Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example (1) 22•1st June 2015 <Result for Situation 3> <Comparing the Simulation Results> Decision Future Value of Productive Investment Future Value of Inflation Keep the interest rate as it is 0.4206757 0.6106903 Decreasing the interest rate 0.4600851 0.6117947 Increasing the interest rate 0.3452465 0.6085645
  23. 23. Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example (2) 23•1st June 2015 • Drug Policy – Strengthen or Weaken the probation against drug? • What will happen in the future ?
  24. 24. Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example (2) 24•1st June 2015 • Drug Policy – Strengthen or Weaken the probation against drug? Very High “National prohibition” Very Low “National prohibition”
  25. 25. Policy Impact Evaluation with FCM – usage example (2) 25•1st June 2015 National prohibition Drug acreage Gaining Syndicates Availability of drugs Streetgangs Use of drug Drug price 0.8 (Higher) 0.5729 0.5872 0.5878 0.7054 0.680272 0.5116 0.7100 0.2 (Lower) 0.5714 0.5891 0.5753 0.7210 0.599626 0.5561 0.6078 • Comparison between two cases vs.
  26. 26. DEMO Q&A with Short survey 26•1st June 2015

×