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Economy&housing230315 pres

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Presentation about economy and housing research for the LARIA research fortnight

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Economy&housing230315 pres

  1. 1. Economy and Housing Research Polly Jackson, Stuart Morris 23rd March 2015
  2. 2. “It’s the economy1 stupid” 1. Which is very closely linked with the housing market for many reasons including: land prices, house prices, population age structures, commuting patterns, retail locations, future employment trends, migration patterns, land availability, local earnings, strengths in industrial sectors, unemployment, the list goes on….
  3. 3. How many? 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 Number of homes to be built in Cambridgeshire 2011-31 Number of homes sold in Cambridgeshire in 2014 People claiming JSA in Cambridgeshire Dec-14 Total social rented stock
  4. 4. A format to suit everyone www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk
  5. 5. Economic evidence: East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM) Jobs Population Housing
  6. 6. Cambridgeshire population forecasts 560 590 620 650 680 710 740 770 800 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Population(000s) EEFM high migration EEFM lost decade EEFM baseline Census trend CCC housing targets LEFM RG Pop ONS 2011-based projections LEFM baseline ONS 2010-based projections CCC natural change CCC no build East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM)
  7. 7. People Business Place Local Economic Assessment
  8. 8. People Business Place Local Economic Assessment
  9. 9. People Business Place Local Economic Assessment Cambridgeshire JSA claimant count unemployment : Total claimants aged 16-64 (Feb-04 to Dec-14)
  10. 10. People Business Place Workplace destination of employed residents aged 16-74 who live in East Cambridgeshire: proportion of total employed resident population aged 16-74 (2011) Local Economic Assessment
  11. 11. Housing Research • Strategic Housing Market Assessment – Assessment of housing requirement – Assessment of affordable housing need – Market signals: House Prices, Rents, Affordability, Supply of new homes, Overcrowding and Homelessness • Rural housing profiles • Fuel poverty atlas and benefits changes atlas
  12. 12. New developments surveys • 2006-2012: 7 surveys of about 35 sites, including Cambourne and Red Lodge. • Asking about household type, where they have moved from, employment and travel, and things people like/dislike about new developments • Individual reports for each survey and comparison report: http://www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/housing/h ousing-research/new-housing-development-surveys
  13. 13. Population 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% New town Substantial In-fill All new developments Sub-Region (2011) Percentageofpopulation Development Type Under 16 17-29 30-44 45-59 60+
  14. 14. New homes for local people 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 <2km <5km <10km <20km <30km <40km <60km Percentageofnewdevelopmenthouseholds Distance moved from previous home
  15. 15. Cambridge and South Cambs - a major economic centre • 63% of Cambourne residents work in City/South Cambs. 27% of Red Lodge residents employed in this area. • Cambridge is a major centre for non-food shopping. • Good road links to employment centres are important. More than three-quarters of respondents travel to work by car.
  16. 16. But Cambridge is an expensive place to live! Cambridge Cambourne Red Lodge Total properties sold 1,753 279 164 Sold for under £150K (Number) 90 28 40 Sold for under £150K (Percentage) 5% 10% 24% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Cambridge Cambourne Red Lodge Homessoldforlessthan£150,000 Detached Semi-detached Terrace Flat/maisonette Price compared to other areas was an important reason for choosing to live in Cambourne and Red Lodge, even though they are more expensive than neighbouring villages. But when you compare them to Cambridge… © Crown Copyright (2015) The Land Registry
  17. 17. Summary • Knowledge about the economy and housing are important in supporting council priorities around helping people live well independently in a safe environment and leading a healthy lifestyle, supporting a prosperous economy. • We have a range of resources available around housing and the economy including the EEFM, SHMA and new developments surveys.
  18. 18. @CambsInsight pinterest.com/cambsinsight Cambridgeshire Insight Come visit us! Shire Hall – Room 015 W: www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk T: 01223 715300 E: research.performance@cambridgeshire.gov.uk Coming soon Thurs 26th: Consultations, Customer Insight, and Community Safety

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