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Monthly media brief - April/May 2017


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Monthly Media Brief - on the topic of the contingent workforce and the future of work

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Monthly media brief - April/May 2017

  1. 1. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation A CXC Global Knowledge Initiative Monthly Media Brief Employment | The Economy | Contract Work April-May 2017
  2. 2. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation THE ECONOMY The following, a summary of the coverage around the economic outlook for Australia for the period: April – May 2017
  3. 3. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Economic Outlook Consumer sentiment continues to slide, amidst what is starting to be called a ‘retail recession’. In April, sentiment inched lower, as consumers worried about the economic outlook, which overshadowed what was growing optimism about the state of family finances. A survey by the Melbourne Institute and Westpac found sentiment dropped 0.7% in April after a rise of 0.1% in March The index is still up on the same time last year. However, the latest data marks the fifth consecutive month when the index has been below 100 - indicating that pessimists are slightly outnumbering optimists Expectations for the economic outlook over the next 12 months fell 6.5 per cent, and the assessment of economic conditions for the next five years dropped 2.7 per cent. Westpac's chief economist, Bill Evans, felt confidence had held up well in the face of media attention over housing affordability and growing geopolitical tensions globally. The IMF remains upbeat about Australia’s economy, forecasting far better economic growth than the latest Treasury forecasts, despite the political uncertainties created by Brexit and US President Donald Trump.
  4. 4. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Economic Outlook From Business Insider: • In an update to the World Economic Outlook report, the IMF puts GDP in Australia at 3.1% for 2017, up from 2.5% in 2016, and at 3% for next year • The IMF expects inflation to hit 2% this year, from 1.3% last year, and for unemployment to drop to 5.2% from 5.7% • The IMF forecasts the world economy to grow at 3.5% in 2017, up from 3.1% last year, and 3.6% in 2018 • The new projection for 2017 is marginally higher than what was expected in the last update to the World Economic Outlook • “This improvement comes primarily from good economic news for Europe and Asia, as well as our continuing expectation for higher growth this year in the United States,” says the IMF. • The IMF points to improved commodity prices. • Natural gas prices have increased in Europe on account of supply tightening and higher oil prices. • “Coal prices have rallied, by 21%, following government-led reductions in coal production in China and outages in Australia that affected production and shipment,” says the IMF.
  5. 5. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Economic Outlook Capital Economics chief Australian economist, Paul Dales, said consumer confidence has been trending down for the last six months or so. "That's consistent with the idea that the outlook for employment isn't particularly strong, the outlook for wage growth isn't particularly strong, so households aren't about to go out and start spending a lot more," he told ABC News. Consumer Sentiment From the ABC:
  6. 6. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Economic Outlook There’s mild hysteria about the imminent arrival of Amazon in Australia (largely from Australian bricks & mortar retailers with less-than-savvy online business models). Economists are warning the discretionary retail sector is heading for a recession. And with little in the Federal budget to make retailers more optimistic – whether that’s in the rising cost of living or the zero wages growth expectation – it’s expected Australians will be shopping, mostly, for the essentials. The Retail Sector: Here’s an example of what’s happening: a bearish Credit Suisse note triggered a sell- down of Myer shares on Monday of this week. The stock lost 10%. It rose again by 3% on Wednesday, but those gains were wiped on Thursday when it lost ANOTHER 3.2%. Ouch. Myer is getting a lot of heat in the media at the moment, due to recent performance numbers. But analysts also have also downgraded Harvey Norman & JB Hi-Fi this week, after reviewing the likely hit Amazon will have on our retail sector. It’s surprising, this recent ‘shock’ about Amazon, as the sector has known about their arrival for some time. Speculation is rife, that the only thing that will save our local retail sector against the global online shopping giant, is political lobbying with the goal of levelling the playing field with respect to taxation of international competitors, operating in Australia.
  7. 7. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Economic Outlook The Budget: Welfare Health Tax Business Education Housing $A The banks are feeling hard done by. They’ve all come out whining about the bank levy announced by the Treasurer on Tuesday night. The message across each of the four big banks, was very consistent. Firstly the banks… Westpac’s CEO, Brian Hartzer: • Described the bank levy as a ‘stealth tax’ • It will likely increase interest of borrowers, and also described it as a hit on the retirement savings of millions of Australia • There’s no ‘magic pudding’, he believes the “cost of any new tax is ultimately borne by shareholders, borrowers, depositor and employees” ANZ Banking Group chief, Shayne Elliott: • described the tax as "regrettable policy" • said it failed to recognise the banking sector is already the largest taxpayer in corporate Australia contributing $11.5 billion each year to government revenue • "We believe the initial public support for the tax will prove to be misplaced and the speed which it is likely to pass into law highlights how divisive the banking industry's relationship with many in parliament and the broader community has become," he said
  8. 8. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Economic Outlook The Budget: Welfare Health Tax Business Education Housing $A The banks… NAB chief, Andrew Thorburn: • Said the tax will “impact millions of everyday Australians who are employees, customers or shareholders of banks” • “It’s not just a tax on a bank. It’s a tax on every Australian who benefits from, and is part of, our industry” Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief executive, Ian Narev: • The cost of the bank levy would be borne by "customers or shareholders, or a combination of both" • To CBA staff he described the tax as "bad policy" • "There was no consultation with the banking system about a tax that will impact on economic growth and the strength of our banks," he said The banks are being called the ‘biggest losers’ from this budget, who will face increased taxes from 1 July worth $6.2bn over four years.
  9. 9. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Economic Outlook The Budget: Welfare Health Tax Business Education Housing $A Business… • Business will need to pay new levies for foreign workers, raising $1.2b over 4 years • Businesses tax numbers with a turnover of more than $10m – $5k up front for each foreign employee on a permanent work visa – $1.8k for each employee on a temporary skill shortage visa (which will replace the 457 visa) • Businesses tax numbers with a turnover of less than $10m – $3k up front for each foreign employee on a permanent work visa – $1.2k for each employee on a temporary skill shortage visa (which will replace the 457 visa) • The levy on businesses using foreign workers will fund up to 300,000 apprenticeships and traineeships over four years • The budget confirms the government’s intention to legislate the rest of its $48bn 10-year company tax cut plan, and continues the $20,000 instant asset write-off facility for small businesses below $10m turnover for another year • Propose to raise $318m in revenue by extending a black economy crackdown to contractors in the courier and cleaning industries • The most bullish forecast might be the 3% growth in wages the Treasurer is counting on in two years' time coinciding with a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.5% by June 2019
  10. 10. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Economic Outlook The Budget: Welfare Health Tax Business Education Housing $A Housing… • The government will increase the capital gains tax discount from 50% to 60% for residents who choose to invest in affordable housing • Harsher laws for foreign property owners as a means of addressing housing affordability • Foreign owners of property in Australia who leave it unoccupied or not genuinely available for rent at least six months of the year will be taxed • Voluntary contributions to superannuation will be available for withdrawal for a first home deposit. Up to $30,000 can be contributed and withdrawals allowed from July 2018 onwards. A person aged 65 or over will be allowed to make a non- concessional contribution of up to $300,000 from the proceeds of selling their home • Negative gearing perks are being tightened with deductions of travel expenses for residential rental property being eliminated. They expect savings to the budget of $540m over four years • Managed investment trusts will be enabled to invest in affordable housing
  11. 11. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Economic Outlook The Budget: Welfare Health Tax Business Education Housing $A FinTech… • As a means of encouraging growth in the FinTech sector in Australia, Bitcoin users will no longer be taxed twice, with bitcoin being increasingly considered ‘money’. Currently, Bitcoin is as ‘intangible property’ for GST purposes so people can effectively pay GST twice – once on the purchase of the currency and again on its use. The purchase of digital currency will no longer be subject to GST. It’s estimated to have a small but unquantifiable decrease in GST collections Infrastructure… • The government claims it will invest $75bn into a 10 year infrastructure program. This includes a $10bn National Rail Program to improve connections between cities and regions • Other eligible projects include Adelink, Brisbane Metro, Tullamarine Rail link, the Brisbane Cross River Rail and the Western Sydney Airport Rail link Education… • Higher education reforms announced before the budget, including an efficiency dividend and increases in fees, will rase $3.756bn over four years
  12. 12. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Economic Outlook The Budget: Welfare Health Tax Business Education Housing $A The rest.. • The replacement of the 457 visa will cost $65.3m over four years. Changes to visa application charges across the board is forecast to raise $410m • The Coalition is bringing forward the timetable to increase spending on defence to 2% of GDP, three years earlier than originally planned. The 2020-21 allocation of $42bn is up from $34.6bn next financial year • A personal tax hike, in the form of a 0.5% Medicare levy, from 2019 for people earning over $21, 655 to fund the NDIS • Welfare recipients will face drug testing
  13. 13. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation JOBS OUTLOOK The following, a summary of the coverage around jobs outlook for Australia for the period: April-May 2017
  14. 14. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Rise in job ads in April 2017, compared to the March, according to SEEK +1.4% Jobs Outlook • The data in March was smashing it. According to the ABS, employment increased by a massive 60,900 in seasonally adjusted terms, easily surpassing the 20,000 increase expected by economists. • The lift in employment was the largest since September 2015, and the sixth consecutive month with an increase. Over that period, full-time employment increased by 67,800, or 0.8%, marking the first time since August 2016 that it rose from a year earlier. Part-time employment grew by 78,100, or 2.1%, the slowest increase since March 2015. Jobs Outlook: Over that period, full-time employment increased by 67,800, or 0.8%, marking the first time since August 2016 that it rose from a year earlier. Part-time employment grew by 78,100, or 2.1%, the slowest increase since March 2015.
  15. 15. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Jobs Outlook • Roy Morgan’s data takes a different perspective. What they call Australia’s ‘real’ unemployment was, for April, unchanged at 9.3% (1.217 million Australians looking for work). • In addition for the eighth straight month more than 1 million Australians were under-employed in April – now 1.090 million (8.3% of the workforce) • This is a total of 2.307 million Australians (17.6% of the workforce) looking for work or looking for more work • In April the total Australian workforce was 13,133,000 (up 323,000 in a year) and employment grew strongly to 11,916,000 (up 440,000) • However the increase in employment was entirely driven by a large increase in part-time employment which rose 471,000 to 4,300,000 while full-time employment fell 31,000 to 7,616,000 • So while real unemployment at 9.3% is down 1.1% from a year ago, under-employment is up 0.6% to 8.3% over the same period. The rise in under-employment is a direct consequence of the increasing proportion of part-time employment at the expense of full-time jobs • The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for March 2017 (5.9%) Jobs Outlook:
  16. 16. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation • About 800 workers have been stood down from work at a construction site in Darwin that is part of the $50 billion Ichthys LNG project headed by Japanese energy giant Inpex • The workers were “demobilised” by contractor Laing O’Rourke this morning following a dispute with Japanese firm Kawasaki Heavy Industries over the construction of four cryogenic tanks. Laing O’Rourke reportedly believes Kawasaki owes it over $200 million • About 640 of those stood down are direct employees and the rest subcontractors ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Jobs Outlook Other news in jobs…
  17. 17. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Jobs Outlook And on a lighter note in jobs, you couldn’t have missed the delightfully (not) white Labor Party ad, about ‘Australians first’ for Australian jobs. The ad was a shocker. Now taken off-air, it features Labor leader Bill Shorten discussing jobs for Australians in front of a group of people in workwear, almost all of whom appear to be white. The ad had the famous hashtag, #OscarsSoWhite, attributed to it. Other news in jobs…
  18. 18. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Contingent Workforce Update
  19. 19. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Contingent Workforce The NSW Government: • The NSW Government is spending up big on contingent labour • The largest category of workers are in the ICT category with roles such as software developers, network engineers and IT managers. Last year, the biggest category of contingent labour with the NSW government, was administration roles • They’re defining ‘contingent labour’ as people employed by a recruitment agency and hired by agencies in order to fill a skills gap • In 2015/26 the state government spend $1.1b on contingent labour, up from $503m in 2011/2 • In 2016, 2.3% of public sector workforce in NSW was contingent (which, they’re saying is around 7,571 FTE) Contingent Workforce..
  20. 20. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation General News: Ongoing coverage of the increasing use of contingent labour both in Australia & across the globe • There’s not a lot of research, which is of a high standard. A recent survey by the Brandon Hall Group (a US based HCM group) on contingent labour. Here are some of the findings: Contingent Workforce.. 1. The research also shows that nearly ¾ of organisations say their contingent workforce is effective or very effective, and more than 70% believe the use of contingent labour is strategic to specific business functions or to the business as a whole 2. Overall, about half of organisations plan to increase spending on contingent labour over the next year including 60% of small organisations (under 1,000 employees), 38% of mid-size companies (1,000-9,999 employees), and 44% of large employers (10,000+) 3. But the division of labour depends quite a bit on the demographic. At large organisations, paid interns and staffing firm referrals are utilised most often, while independent contractors are most prevalent at mid- size and small organisations. Interestingly, high- performing organisations use retirees almost three times as frequently than other organisations Contingent Workforce
  21. 21. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation According to Bullhorn, the partnership will develop a seamless, closed-loop integration between the SEEK job portal and Bullhorn Applicant Tracking System/Customer Relationship Management, available as part of Bullhorn’s marketplace effective immediately Bullhorn, a global provider of customer relationship management software for the staffing and recruiting industries, has announced that it has partnered with Australian job board SEEK From HR Dive and the recent ‘WorkdatWork Total Rewards Conference’ in the US HR people are under the pump, and increasingly being called upon to do more with less. Tightening resources, changing technologies and frustrated employees calling for more flexibility have forced HR professionals to find adaptable workforce solutions that fit a shifting model Contingent Workforce.. Contingent Workforce
  22. 22. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Six categories of contingent workers, have been identified: 1. Freelancers & independent contractors 2. Temporary & seasonal workers 3. Professional service providers 4. Outsourced service providers 5. Agency temp workers 6. Special cases (WorldatWork’s Total Rewards Conference) The three top reasons stated for utilising contingent workers were: 1. Staffing flexibility 2. A need to bring hard-to-find skillsets in-house 3. Cost savings Contingent Workforce.. A B C Contingent Workforce
  23. 23. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation • Worker classification is hard to achieve, especially in light of the litigation at play with Uber in the US (and increasingly around the world) • Key issues include length of engagement, employee integration and even healthcare • the increase in self-employment, has doubled over the last four decades in the UK to reach 16% of the UK labour market and continues to rise • It has been predicted that the UK could reach 50 per cent by the end of the next decade. • A recent Deloitte study of multinationals found that around a third of their workforces are contingent, and 51% of business leaders believe that figure will increase within the next five years • Upwork says that, in the US, one in three workers is now freelance – a figure it claims could hit 50 per cent by 2020 • The sole trader freelancer is becoming more common than the small business owner, and more people are now in the ‘grey area’ between employment and self-employment Contingent Workforce.. Contingent Workforce
  24. 24. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Sources
  25. 25. Fusion PowerPoint Presentation Contact CXC Global Level 6, 9 Hunter St Sydney NSW 2000Address: Phone: Web: E-mail: +61 1300 724 082