PRRI God and Politics Vanderbilt Presentation

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PRRI God and Politics Vanderbilt Presentation

  1. 1. God  and  Poli*cs  What  Public  Opinion  Tells  us  about  Religion  in  the  2012  ElecAon   March  2012   Public Religion Research Dr.  Robert  P.  Jones,  CEO   Daniel  Cox,  Director  of  Research   Institute
  2. 2. UNDERSTANDING   THE  RELIGIOUS  AND  POLITICAL  LANDSCAPE  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   2  
  3. 3. Shi;s  among  Protestants  by  Race  1974  –  2010   Ethnic  Change  Among  Protestants  (1974-­‐2010)   White  Protestant   Black  Protestant   60   54   50   36   40   30   20   10   9   10   0   1975   1985   1991   1974   1976   1977   1978   1980   1983   1984   1986   1988   1989   1990   1993   1994   1996   1998   2000   2002   2004   2006   2008   2010   Source:  General  Social  Survey  1974-­‐2008;  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  American   Values  Survey,  September  2010  (N=3,013)  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   3  
  4. 4. Shi;s  among  Catholics  by  Ethnicity  1991  -­‐  2009   Ethnic  Change  among  Catholics  1991-­‐2009   Hispanic  Catholic   White  Catholic   30   25   21   14   20   15   10   8   5   2   0   1991   1992   1993   1994   1997   1999   2002   2003   2007   2009   Source:  Pew  Research  Center  Surveys  1991-­‐2009  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   4  
  5. 5. 2008  Presiden*al  Vote  by  Religion   2008  Presiden*al  Vote  by  Religion   96   Obama   McCain  100   90   78   77   80   73   74   70   60   53   54   50   47   46   40   30   27   26   22   23   20   10   4   0   Black  Protestant   Other  Non-­‐ Unaffiliated   LaAno  Catholic   White  Catholic   White  Mainline   White   ChrisAan   Evangelical   Source:  NEP,  NaAonal  Exit  Poll,  2008  
  6. 6. 2010  Midterm  Vote  by  Religion   2010  Midterm  Vote  by  Religion   Democrat   Republican  100   96   90   81   80   75   69   70   58   58   60   60   50   42   42   40   40   31   30   25   19   20   10   4   0   Black  Protestant   Other  Non-­‐ Unaffiliated   LaAno  Catholic   White  Mainline   White  Catholic   White  Evangelical   ChrisAan   Source:  NEP,  NaAonal  House  Exit  Poll,  2010  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   6  
  7. 7. ROMNEY  AND  THE  MORMON  QUESTION  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   7  
  8. 8. The  Evangelical  Drag  on  Romney   South  Carolina     Iowa  Republican  Primary   Republican    Primary  Exit  Poll   Entrance  Poll   All  Voters   White  Evangelical  Voters   All  Voters   White  Evangelical  Voters   50   35   33   44   45   40   30   40   25   25   35   25   28   21   30   19   20   25   22   21   14   13   14   20   17   15   15   13   13   10   10   5   5   0   0   Gingrich   Romney   Santorum   Paul   Santorum   Paul   Romney   Gingrich  
  9. 9. Importance  of  President  having  Strong  Religious  Beliefs  (Voters)   How$Important$is$it$for$Presiden2al$Candidates$to$have$ Strong$Religious$Beliefs?$ 100" Important" Not"Important" 90" 93%$ 80" 83%$ 70" 60" 67%$ 69%$ 67%$ 68%$ 50" 40" 30" 33%$ 30%$ 32%$ 32%$ 20" 10" 16%$ 0" 7%$ All"Voters" White" Black"Protestant" Catholic" White"Mainline" Unaffiliated" Evangelical" Source:"Public"Religion"Research"InsNtute,"American"Values"Survey,"September"2011"(N=1,505)""Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   9  
  10. 10. Evalua*ons  of  the  Mormon  Faith  and  the  Religious  Beliefs  of  Mormons   Mormon&faith&is&not&a&Chris.an&religion& All#Voters# 36%$ White#Evangelical# 49%$ Republican# 39%$ Tea#Party# 31%$ Mormons&have&religious&beliefs&that&are&different&from&own& All#Voters# 66%$ White#Evangelical# 68%$ Republican# 61%$ Tea#Party# 50%$ Source:#Public#Religion#Research#Ins=tute,#American#Values#Survey,#September#2011#(N=1,505)##Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   10  
  11. 11. Discomfort  with  Mormon  Serving  as  President   Percentage  of  voters  who  would  be  somewhat  uncomfortable  or  very  uncomfortable  with  a   Mormon  serving  as  President   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  American  Values  Survey,  September  2011  (N=1,505)    Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   11  
  12. 12. PRESIDENT  OBAMA  AND  RELIGION  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   12  
  13. 13. Knowledge  of  Obama’s  Religion   What  is  President  Obamas  Religion?   18   38   4   Dont  know   ChrisAan   Muslim   Not  Religious   40   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  PRRI/RNS  Religion  News  Survey,  July  2011  (N=1,012)    Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   13  
  14. 14. Views  of  President  Obama’s  Religious  Beliefs   Among  General  Popula*on   Among  Whites   Very  similar   9   12   Somewhat  similar   9   9   26   35   28   Somewhat   38   different   16   18   Very  different   Dont  know   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  Post-­‐elecAon  American  Values  Survey,  November  2010  (N=1,494)    Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   14  
  15. 15. Impact  of  Views  of  President  Obama’s    Religious  Beliefs  on  Favorability   Favorability  of  Obama   Very  favorable   Mostly  favorable   Mostly  unfavorable   Very  unfavorable   Total   24   32   17   25   Very  similar   51   43   3   3   Somewhat  similar   39   47   7   6   Somewhat  different   17   39   23   21   Very  different   7   13   27   51   0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80   90   100   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  Post-­‐elecAon  American  Values  Survey,  November  2010  (N=1,494)    Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   15  
  16. 16. Religious  Differences  Scores  for  Obama  and  Romney   Percep&ons*of*Differences*between*Poli&cal*Leaders* Religious*Beliefs*and*Publics*Own*Religious*Beliefs** Romney%(!0.43)% Bush%(0.00)% Obama%(!0.40)% !0.50% !0.40% !0.30% !0.20% !0.10% 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% More%Different% More%Similar% Religion(Index((Scale:(12(=(very(different,(+2(=(very(similar)( Source:(Public(Religion(Research(InsBtute,(PRRI/RNS(Religion(News(Survey,(July(2011(
  17. 17. FAULT  LINES  TO  WATCH  IN  2012  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   17  
  18. 18. Tensions  between  Occupy  Wall  Street  vs.  Tea  Party  Values   Shares  Your  Values:  Occupy  Wall  Street  vs.  Tea  Party   30%   23   Shares  values  with  the   Tea  Party   49   Shares  values  with   Both   6   Shares  values  with   Occupy  Wall  Street   Shares  values  with   Neither/DK   23   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  PRRI/RNS  Religion  News  Survey,  November  2011  (N=1,002)    Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   18  
  19. 19. Uneasiness  about  the  American  Dream   The$American$Dream$-$"if$you$work$hard,$youll$ get$ahead"$ 6%$ S"ll$holds$true$ 44%$ Once$held$true,$but$ not$anymore$ 48%$ Never$held$true$ Source:$Public$Religion$Research$Ins"tute,$PRRI/RNS$Religion$News$Survey,$November$2011$ (N=1,002)$Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   19  
  20. 20. Uneasiness  about  Diversity:  Race  and  Concerns  about  “Reverse  Discrimina*on”   Discrimina)on+Against+Whites+Now+as+Big+a+Problem+as+ Discrimina)on+Against+Blacks+and+other+Minori)es+ Agree# Disagree# Most#Trust#Public#Television# 23# 75# Blacks# 29# 68# Hispanics# 30# 66# Democrats# 36# 62# Millennials#(18C29)# 44# 54# Independents# 45# 52# General#public# 46# 51# Seniors#(65+)# 51# 46# Whites# 51# 46# Republicans# 60# 40# Tea#Party# 63# 36# Most#Trust#Fox#News# 68# 31# 0# 20# 40# 60# 80# 100# Source:#Public#Religion#Research#InsTtute,#Pluralism,#ImmigraTon,#Civic#IntegraTon# Survey,#August#2011#(N=2,450)#####Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   20  
  21. 21. Divisions  over  Equal  Opportunity    by  Poli*cal  Affilia*on   Equal  Opportunity  by  Poli*cal  Affilia*on   One  of  the  big  problems  in  this  country  is  that  we  don’t  give  everyone  an  equal  chance  in  life   It  is  not  really  that  big  a  problem  if  some  people  have  more  of  a  chance  in  life  than  others   80   70   70%   60   50   54%   54%   53%   50%   40   40%   43%   30   38%   37%   20   25%   10   0   All  Americans   Democrat   Independent   Republican   Tea  Party   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  American  Values  Survey,  September  2011  (N=1,505)    Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   21  
  22. 22. Support  for  More  Equal  Distribu*on  of  Wealth   Society  would  be  bejer  off  if  the  distribu*on  of  wealth  were  more  equal   Percent  Agreeing   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  American  Values  Survey,  September  2011  (N=1,505)  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   22  
  23. 23. American  Excep*onalism    by  Religious  Tradi*on   God  has  granted  America  a  special  role  in  human  history   Percent  Agreeing   All  Americans   58   Unaffiliated   32   Non-­‐ChrisAans   43   White  mainline   54   Catholics   54   White  evangelicals   84   0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80   90   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  Post-­‐elecAon  American  Values  Survey,  November  2010  (N=1,494)    Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   23  
  24. 24. PERCEPTIONS  OF  AFFORDABLE  HEALTH  CARE   ACT  (AKA  OBAMACARE)  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   24  
  25. 25. Effect  of  the  Health  Care  Reform  Law  on  Access  to  Health  Insurance   30%   Effect  of  the  Health  Care  Reform  Law   Access  to  Health  Insurance   More  people  insured   No  difference   Fewer  people  insured  70   65  60   50  50   39   38   39  40   37   36   36   34   35   35   33   32   31   28   29   28  30   25   26   26   26   24   21   20  20   18   15   11  10   0   All  Americans   Black   Non-­‐ChrisAan   Unaffiliated   Catholic   White   White   Other   White   Protestant   Catholic   Mainline   ChrisAan   Evangelical   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  American  Values  Survey,  September  2011  (N=1,505)    Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   25  
  26. 26. Effect  of  the  Health  Care  Reform  Law  on  Affordability  of  Health  Care   30%   Effect  of  the  Health  Care  Reform  Law   Affordability  of  Health  Care   More  affordable   No  difference   Less  affordable  60   54   52   51  50   43   39   38  40   37   37   35   35   33   30   31   30   31   30  30   28   25   24   22   21   21   20   19   18  20   17   10  10   0   All  Americans   Black   Unaffiliated   Non-­‐ChrisAan   Catholic   Other   White   White   White   Protestant   ChrisAan   Catholic   Mainline   Evangelical   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  American  Values  Survey,  September  2011  (N=1,505)    Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   26  
  27. 27. TAXATION  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   27  
  28. 28. Is  it  Fair  to  Ask  Wealthier  Americans  to  Pay  a  Greater  Percentage  in  Taxes   30%   In  Order  to  Reduce  the  Deficit,  Its  Fair  to  Ask  Wealthier  Americans   to  Pay  a  Greater  Percentage  in  Taxes  than  the  Middle  Class  or  Those   Less  Well  Off   Agree   Disagree   80   72   72   72   68   70   63   60   60   50   39   40   36   30   30   26   27   25   20   10   0   All  Americans   White  Mainline   Catholic   Unaffiliated   White  Catholic   White  Evangelical   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  PRRI/RNS  Religion  News  Survey,  November  2011  (N=1,002)  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   28  
  29. 29. The  Buffet  Rule   30%   Favorability  of  Increasing  the  Tax  Rate  on  Americans  Earning  more   than  $1  dollars  a  year   Favor   Oppose   80   74   74   70   71   69   69   69   69   70   65   60   50   40   27   29   29   28   29   30   24   24   26   23   20   10   0   All  Americans   Catholic   Unaffiliated   Non-­‐ White   White   Black   Other   White   ChrisAan   Mainline   Catholic   Protestant   ChrisAan   Evangelical   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  American  Values  Survey,  September  2011  (N=1,505)    Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   29  
  30. 30. IMMIGRATION  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   30  
  31. 31. Growing  Number  of  Newcomers:    Threat  or  Strength?   Aptudes  towards  the  growing  number  of  newcomers     1  1   3   Strengthens  American  society   Threatens  tradiAonal  American   customs  and  values   Neither   42   53   Both   Dont  know   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  Pluralism,  ImmigraAon,  Civic  IntegraAon  Survey,  August  2011  (N=2,450)          Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   31  
  32. 32. Polariza*on  over  Immigra*on  Policy  By  Party   DREAM  Act,  Path  to  Ci*zenship,  and  Deporta*on  by  Party     General  Public   Tea  Party   Republicans   Independents   Democrats   80   70   67   70   60   57   56   56   55   60   46   48   49   50   39   42   40   40   30   26   29   20   10   0   FAVOR  DREAM  ACT-­‐Allowing  illegal   FAVOR  PATH  TO  CITIZENSHIP-­‐Allowing   DISAGREE  WITH  DEPORTATION-­‐We   immigrants  brought  to  the  U.S.  as   undocumented  immigrants  who  have   should  make  a  serious  effort  to  deport  all   children  to  gain  legal  resident  status  if   been  in  the  U.S.  for  several  years  to  earn   illegal  immigrants  back  to  their  home   they  join  the  military  or  go  to  college   legal  working  status  and  an  opportunity   countries   for  ciAzenship  in  the  future     Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  Pluralism,  ImmigraAon,  Civic  IntegraAon  Survey,  August  2011  (N=2,450)  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   32  
  33. 33. With  Excep*on  of  White  Evangelicals,  Broad  Religious  Support  for  DREAM  Act   Support  for  the  Dream  Act  by  Religious  Affilia*on     Favor   Oppose   70   64   65   66   57   58   60   54   52   50   44   40   42   40   40   36   30   30   30   20   10   0   General  public   White   White  mainline   Catholic   Black  Protestant   Unaffiliated   Non-­‐ChrisAan   evangelical   affiliated   Source:  Public  Religion  Research  InsAtute,  Pluralism,  ImmigraAon,  Civic  IntegraAon  Survey,  August  2011  (N=2,450)  Religion  and  Poli,cs  in  2012   33  
  34. 34. GOD  AND  POLITICS  What  Public  Opinion  Tells  us  About  Religion  in  the  2012  ElecAon   Follow  us  Online:   Ø www.facebook.com/publicreligion   Ø www.twiker.com/publicreligion     Ø www.publicreligion.org     Public Religion Research Dr.  Robert  P.  Jones,  President   Institute Daniel  Cox,  Director  of  Research  

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