One Cape 2040 is a deliberate attempt to stimulate a transition towards a more inclusive and resilient economic future for the Western Cape region. It is a vision and strategy for society, rather than a plan for government (although all three spheres of government are essential for implementation). It puts forward a long-term economic transition agenda, with specific focus areas to drive the transition, and with roles and responsibilities for different stakeholders.
Understanding transitions (radical, structural changes of a societal system)Professor Curtis Marean, Arizona State University: Shortly after Homo sapiens arose, harsh climate conditions nearly extinguished our species. Recent finds suggest that the small population that gave rise to all humans alive today survived by exploiting a unique combination of resources along the southern coast of Africa195 000 – 123 000 years ago – icy glacial stageDramatic global population decline, from 10 000 to just 100sCaves such as Pinnacle Point (picture) and Blombos along the southern Cape coast contain remarkable evidence of how early modern human beings managed and survived a difficult transition process:Ability to exploit seafood and geophytes (underground energy storage organs) found in the Cape Floral Kingdom for their dietBladelets from fine-grained, heat-treated rock, and refined bone tools – evidence of design of more sophisticated new technologiesCarved and ground red ochre, and decorative shells – use of symbols that encode information about social identity and cognitive behaviourTransition management methodology (beyond business as usual):Adaptation and resilienceTechnology innovationChanging social behaviour, culture and identity
The development landscape is littered with ‘paper’ visions, policies, strategies and plans, usually compiled at great cost and effort, which often have no impact on changing people’s lives. One Cape 2040 explicitly connects vision and action in a Transition Management Methodology, by focusing on mobilising stakeholders and executing projects and experiments in support of the transition agenda, through the use of three coordination mechanisms: markets, plans and institutions:Problem assessment and risk analysis (Contextual Report) and, simultaneously, the creation of a multi-actor transition arena organised and managed by the EDPFormulation of shared long term socio-economic vision with six transitions. Emphasis on establishing a common transition agenda, rather than a traditional stakeholder ‘wish list’ and an action plan with change levers and clear roles and responsibilities to go beyond ‘business as usual’ activities and behaviorsLanding the vision in action: Mobilise stakeholders via execution of projects, multi-level partnerships, spaces for experimentationandtop-down support for bottom up activities, all of which need to drive the transition agendaDistinguish between two different processes to be monitored: the transition process itself, and transition management:Transition process takes place at different levels (slowly changing macro-developments and sharply changing micro-developments) and is monitored in terms of rate of progress, barriers, points to be improvedTransition management: monitor behaviour, networking activities, alliance forming, roles and responsibilities and delivery of mandates (projects and instruments) of transition agents, as well as agreed actions, goals, projects and instruments of the transition agenda
National Development PlanAlso a plan for society, not just for government, with roles and responsibilities for all stakeholdersDrawn up by independent, non-partisan body (NPC), not by governmentAlso faced with the challenge of landing the vision and plan in actionProvides the national context and framework for One Cape 2040
Adapted from Kate Philip, Inequality and Economic Marginalisation – How the Structure of the Economy impacts on Opportunities on the Margins, Law, Democracy and Development, Volume 14, 2010How do we balance the equity, economy and environment aspects of a sustainability transition. What are the trade offs?
Getting from where we are now to where we want to be
Identifying goals, levers and tipping pointsIt is useful to identify the interventions that have the greatest potential to leverage change in each of the areas of transition so that the goals can be achieved. These provide insight into where to concentrate resources and build partnerships in order to achieve the transitional ‘tipping point’ after which the change becomes difficult to reverse. This is the opposite of doing ‘more of the same’, which simply reproduces the existing system.Identifying levers is not a straightforward exercise. They need to be evidence-led and locally relevant. For some goals the lever is obvious. For other goals there is a need for two levers, one focused on getting the basics right and one that is more aspirational. For some goals the levers are less clear. There is a need to pilot innovations and develop prototypes in order to gather solid evidence over time as to what works well and what does not.Under Educating Cape the focus is on ECD and numeracy and literacy in respect of the basics. This fits with the provincial education priorities and is also aligned with the NDP. At the aspiration level the need for a lever to close the loop between research and business is an issue which was identified in the CT Competitiveness Study as a key weakness. Financing for innovation – be it research, business development, social enterprise or financing partnership arrangements, is the other proposed lever.
Access to work is identified as the key lever for Enterprising Cape on the basis that work allows people to be economically active and is key if we are to build the asset base, address social issues and create a productive and enterprising society. At an aspiration level the focus is on growing businesses that provide employment or address social needs – namely growth oriented SMMEs and social enterprises. This is different to the current focus of most SMME policies which is on micro-enterprises which are often survivalist in nature. The other group of businesses included in the focus is the informal sector, a sector often overlooked, but which provides an income stream to many poor people. Under Green Cape the focus is on moving to more sustainable water and energy infrastructure and sources. Energy is currently the key constraint for business growth and water, which is already a significant factor for the agricultural sector, will become the new constraint of the future. The other key lever is regional and local incentives to fast track the a green agenda such as the national solar geyser subsidy provided by Eskom. For Connecting Cape the internal focus is on building social capital between communities, especially between rival communities, between rich and poor and across racially divided communities. Externally the focus is on building relations across the continent, recognised as a key market and also with other BRICs regions on the basis that these reflect the new markets and economic muscle. For Living Cape the base focus is on public transport, the key to linking people to economic opportunities. The other focus is on what is needed to attract new residents – namely community safety and cheap broadband. Leadership development and partnerships are the final focus under Leading Cape both of which are key aspects of the EDP.
ONECAPE2040From vision to action
One Cape 2040 transition 1 Contextual Report management methodology Legacy: Skills and assets deficits Problem assessment Crisis: Inadequate job growth Creation of Transition Risk: Unsustainable resourceProcesses & tools Arena/ Manager• Data Synergy Project use• Competitiveness Index• Leadership Development 4 EDP as collaborative intermediary cross- 2 Evaluating sector partnership Monitoring Vision facilitating multi- Learning by doing actor transition Transition Agenda System recalibrating arena One Cape 2040: A deliberate attempt to stimulate a transition• Enabling environment towards a more inclusive and 3• Spaces for experimentation resilient economy & innovation Mobilising stakeholders Transition Agenda: Knowledge,• Roles & responsibilities Executing projects and Enterprise, Cultural, Settlement,• Partnership in action experiments Ecological, Institutional
ONECAPE2040 challenge Creating a resilient, inclusive and competitiveWestern Cape with higher rates of employment producing growing incomes, greater equality and an improved quality of life
What is inclusive growth? • Monopoly structure of core economyStructure • Skewed distribution of land and capital • Impacts of migrant labour • Legacy of bantustans and segregated Space towns and cities • Historical inequalities in Skills development of human resources
What is resilient growth?The RCI was developed by the University at Buffalo Regional Institute, State University of New York.
Key transitions 2012-2040 From ToKnowledge Unequal variable quality High quality education for all plustransition education plus limited innovation high innovation capacity(Educating Cape) capacityEconomic access Factor and efficiency driven Innovation driven economy withtransition economy with high barriers to low barriers to entry with high(Working Cape) entry and low productivity and productivity and entrepreneurship entrepreneurship rates ratesEcological Unsustainable carbon-intensive Sustainable low carbon resourcetransition resource use use(Green Cape)Cultural transition Barriers to local and global High level of local connectivity and(Connecting Cape) connectivity (language, identity, global market fluency distance, parochial attitudes)Settlement Unhealthy, low access, often Healthy, accessible, liveable multi-transition alienated, low opportunity opportunity communities(Living Cape) neighbourhoodsInstitutional Defensive, adversarial structures Open, collaborative systemstransition (LeadingCape)
6 Focus Areas each with foundation and aspirational goals • Every person will be appropriately educated for opportunity Educating Cape • Centres of ecological, creative, science and social innovation • Anyone who wants to be economically active is able to workEnterprising Cape •Entrepreneurial destinations of choice • Water, energy and waste services delivered sustainably Green Cape • Leader in Green Economy • Welcoming, inclusive and integrated communitiesConnecting Cape • Global meeting place and connector with new markets •Liveable, accessible, high-opportunity neighbourhoods & towns Living Cape • Ranked as one of greatest places to live in world • Ambitious socially responsible leadership at all levels Leading Cape • World-class institutions
6 Focus Areas Levers of change • Working with parents and teachers to improve the learning and Educating Cape development environment of children • Innovation networks linking investors, researchers and entrepreneurs •Intensive subsidised work opportunity creation in public and privateEnterprising Cape sectors • Focus on social enterprise as a vehicle for economic growth and jobs • Energy and water infrastructure and regulation geared to sustainable Green Cape resource use • Innovation and the fast tracking of the green agenda incentivised • Programmes to build inter-community partnerships and cohesionConnecting Cape • Expanded cultural and trade ties with targeted regions in Africa, Latin America and Asia •Shift from subsidised housing to improved household and community Living Cape services including public transport and pedestrian access •Fast, cheap and reliable broadband and a safe living environment • Multi-level collaborations for innovation (EDP eco-system) Leading Cape • Leadership development to cultivate ambition and responsibility at all levels
Importance of leadership“A new social compact and level-headed leadership that’sprepared to debate the hard issues that make up the perfectstorm we now face. We need a clear vision as a nation of wherewe are going and how we are going to get there” – Alistair Smith,NEDLAC CEO“In SA our arguments are so crude, so ideologically driven, thatwe always disagree on the basics and never get down to detail,to the intricacies of the decisions that have to be taken” – JustinBarnes, BMA Analysts Chairman
Roundtable Discussion 1 The Six Transitions of OneCape 2040• Which strategic levers per transition will have the most leverage?• Which indicators will best assess progress on this transition?• Who is doing what now?