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The Community Service Society’s Fast Analysis of the 2014 New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey

The Community Service Society’s Fast Analysis of the 2014 New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey. On June 2, 2015, the U.S. Census Bureau released detailed data from the 2014 version of its New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey, a survey of 18,000 New Yorkers conducted every three years under contract with the New York City Department of Housing Preservation and Development. CSS has conducted a preliminary analysis of the results to shed light on the important housing issues facing the New York state legislature this year, including the renewal of rent control, rent stabilization, and the 421-a development tax subsidy.

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The Community Service Society’s Fast
Analysis of the 2014 New York City
Housing and Vacancy Survey
Tom Waters, Housing Policy Analyst
June 2015 www.cssny.org
Background
On June 2, 2015, the U.S. Census Bureau released detailed data from the 2014 version
of its New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey, a survey of 18,000 New Yorkers
conducted every three years under contract with the New York City Department of
Housing Preservation and Development. CSS has conducted a preliminary analysis
of the results to shed light on the important housing issues facing the New York state
legislature this year, including the renewal of rent control, rent stabilization, and the
421-a development tax subsidy.
www.cssny.org
Rents are rising rapidly, especially in the city’s
inner-ring neighborhoods
In order to sensitively assess the changing
state of the housing market in different
neighborhoods, CSS focused on the rents
being paid by tenants who have recently
moved. This eliminates the tendency of
lower rents paid by long-time tenants to
smooth out market changes and mask the
changes that affect tenants who are looking
for a place to live. This analysis shows large
changes in most of the city – rents rose by
32 percent citywide since 2002, even after
removing the effect of inflation.
The sharpest increases occurred in
neighborhoods surrounding the traditionally
high-rent area of Manhattan below Harlem.
Central Harlem led the way with a shocking
90 percent increase, with Bedford-
Stuyvesant second at 63 percent.
www.cssny.org
Up to 15 percent increase
No increase
15 to 30 percent increase
30 to 45 percent increase
More than 45 percent increase
Change in inflation-adjusted rent
Recent movers from 2002 to 2014
55%
34%
37%
32%
36%
34%90%
63%
52%
59%
54%
32%
40%
33%
42% 35%
41%
Apartments affordable
to low-income households
in 2002
Apartments affordable
to low-income households
in 2011
Apartments affordable
to low-income households
in 2014
Change from
2002 to 2011
Bronx 238,100 149,100 135,775 -43% (102,325)
Brooklyn 339,500 214,800 196,295 -42% (143,205)
Manhattan 230,800 140,900 127,582 -45% (103,218)
Queens 158,700 86,800 73,057 -54% (85,643)
Staten Island 27,900 18,100 22,337 -20% (5,563)
TOTAL 995,000 609,700 555,046 -44% (439,954)
There is a Dwindling supply of affordable housing for
low-income people
The loss of rent-regulated housing to
vacancy deregulation is combining with
the loss of subsidized housing and with
rising rents overall to dramatically shrink
the city’s supply of housing affordable
to low-income households with incomes
below twice the federal poverty threshold.
Using the standard affordability threshold defined as 30 percent of household income.
2014
2014
2014
2014
2011
2011
2011
2011
2002
2002
2002
2002
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens Staten Island
Apartments affordable to low-income households
Rent increases are outstripping incomes, leading to
worsening rent burdens
Rents in New York City continue to rise faster than incomes. For low-income households, the result is
an ever-larger share of income being devoted to rent. Rent burdens are lower for rent-regulated low-
income tenants than for unregulated ones, but the gap appeared to narrow from 2011 to 2014.
www.cssny.org
Rising median rent burdens for low-income tenants
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
2011 2014
Rising median rent burdens for low-income tenants
Unregulated poor Regulated poor
Unregulated low-income Regulated low-income
Who lives in Rent-Regulated Housing?
www.cssny.org
Median income Poor Near-poor Middle-income
Number of low-
income people
Rent-regulated tenant $45,000 15% 22% 28% 901,500
Unregulated tenant $61,000 12% 18% 27% 666,000
Subsidized* tenant $16,900 48% 30% 16% 663,300
Owner $80,000 6% 14% 25% 502,100
All New York City $52,600 15% 19% 25% 2,740,900
White Black Latino Asian
Immigrant-headed
household
Rent-regulated tenant 38% 21% 30% 10% 50%
Unregulated tenant 44% 18% 22% 15% 47%
Subsidized* tenant 14% 36% 44% 5% 37%
Owner 53% 19% 12% 15% 45%
All New York City 41% 21% 24% 12% 46%
Rent-regulated housing remains the most important resource for low-income New Yorkers with
household incomes less than twice the federal poverty threshold.
*Including NYCHA, all HUD project-based subsidies, Mitchell-Lama, and Section 8 vouchers

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The Community Service Society’s Fast Analysis of the 2014 New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey

  • 1. The Community Service Society’s Fast Analysis of the 2014 New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey Tom Waters, Housing Policy Analyst June 2015 www.cssny.org
  • 2. Background On June 2, 2015, the U.S. Census Bureau released detailed data from the 2014 version of its New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey, a survey of 18,000 New Yorkers conducted every three years under contract with the New York City Department of Housing Preservation and Development. CSS has conducted a preliminary analysis of the results to shed light on the important housing issues facing the New York state legislature this year, including the renewal of rent control, rent stabilization, and the 421-a development tax subsidy. www.cssny.org
  • 3. Rents are rising rapidly, especially in the city’s inner-ring neighborhoods In order to sensitively assess the changing state of the housing market in different neighborhoods, CSS focused on the rents being paid by tenants who have recently moved. This eliminates the tendency of lower rents paid by long-time tenants to smooth out market changes and mask the changes that affect tenants who are looking for a place to live. This analysis shows large changes in most of the city – rents rose by 32 percent citywide since 2002, even after removing the effect of inflation. The sharpest increases occurred in neighborhoods surrounding the traditionally high-rent area of Manhattan below Harlem. Central Harlem led the way with a shocking 90 percent increase, with Bedford- Stuyvesant second at 63 percent. www.cssny.org Up to 15 percent increase No increase 15 to 30 percent increase 30 to 45 percent increase More than 45 percent increase Change in inflation-adjusted rent Recent movers from 2002 to 2014 55% 34% 37% 32% 36% 34%90% 63% 52% 59% 54% 32% 40% 33% 42% 35% 41%
  • 4. Apartments affordable to low-income households in 2002 Apartments affordable to low-income households in 2011 Apartments affordable to low-income households in 2014 Change from 2002 to 2011 Bronx 238,100 149,100 135,775 -43% (102,325) Brooklyn 339,500 214,800 196,295 -42% (143,205) Manhattan 230,800 140,900 127,582 -45% (103,218) Queens 158,700 86,800 73,057 -54% (85,643) Staten Island 27,900 18,100 22,337 -20% (5,563) TOTAL 995,000 609,700 555,046 -44% (439,954) There is a Dwindling supply of affordable housing for low-income people The loss of rent-regulated housing to vacancy deregulation is combining with the loss of subsidized housing and with rising rents overall to dramatically shrink the city’s supply of housing affordable to low-income households with incomes below twice the federal poverty threshold. Using the standard affordability threshold defined as 30 percent of household income. 2014 2014 2014 2014 2011 2011 2011 2011 2002 2002 2002 2002 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens Staten Island Apartments affordable to low-income households
  • 5. Rent increases are outstripping incomes, leading to worsening rent burdens Rents in New York City continue to rise faster than incomes. For low-income households, the result is an ever-larger share of income being devoted to rent. Rent burdens are lower for rent-regulated low- income tenants than for unregulated ones, but the gap appeared to narrow from 2011 to 2014. www.cssny.org Rising median rent burdens for low-income tenants 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 2011 2014 Rising median rent burdens for low-income tenants Unregulated poor Regulated poor Unregulated low-income Regulated low-income
  • 6. Who lives in Rent-Regulated Housing? www.cssny.org Median income Poor Near-poor Middle-income Number of low- income people Rent-regulated tenant $45,000 15% 22% 28% 901,500 Unregulated tenant $61,000 12% 18% 27% 666,000 Subsidized* tenant $16,900 48% 30% 16% 663,300 Owner $80,000 6% 14% 25% 502,100 All New York City $52,600 15% 19% 25% 2,740,900 White Black Latino Asian Immigrant-headed household Rent-regulated tenant 38% 21% 30% 10% 50% Unregulated tenant 44% 18% 22% 15% 47% Subsidized* tenant 14% 36% 44% 5% 37% Owner 53% 19% 12% 15% 45% All New York City 41% 21% 24% 12% 46% Rent-regulated housing remains the most important resource for low-income New Yorkers with household incomes less than twice the federal poverty threshold. *Including NYCHA, all HUD project-based subsidies, Mitchell-Lama, and Section 8 vouchers
  • 7. Who lives in Rent-Regulated Housing? www.cssny.org 10 to 20 percent Up to 10 percent 20 to 40 percent 40 to 60 percent More than 60 percent Rent Regulated
  • 8. New Yorkers at all income levels support stronger rent laws www.cssny.org Total Unsubsidized renter Low income Low-income unsubsidized renter Moderate/ Higher income Rent controlled or rent stabilized renter Low-income rent controlled or rent stabilized Oppose Favor 20%20% 0%40% 40% 60% 80% 100% 11% 6% 8% 9% 74% 84% 66% 17% 12% 21% 84% 88% 90% 89% 60% 71% 51% 4% 73% 79% 81% 80% 4% 3% 3% Oppose strongly Oppose not so strongly Favor strongly Favor not so strongly 10% 6% 12% Three-quarters of New Yorkers believe the state should create stronger protections for tenants in rent stabilized apartments, with support particularly high among low-income respondents. CSS conducts its own annual survey, The Unheard Third. This past year, we asked a random sample of New York City residents the following: “Now I’m going to read you about a series of steps the state could take to help more low-income New Yorkers reach the middle class. Please tell me if you favor or oppose each idea, or if you are unsure: Create stronger protections for tenants in rent stabilized apartments.” Source: The Unheard Third 2014, cited in forthcoming report “Stuck.”