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3. 3
Copyright: All Rights Reserved
Copyleft: All Rights Reversed

4. 4
…
DE

5. 5http://www.complexityandevaluation.com.au
2018

6. 6

7. 7
――
――“ ”
7
HIV/AIDS
“
―― ”
“
――
“

8. 8

9. 9
Getting to Maybe

10. 10
Frances Westley
Brenda Zimmerman
and Michael Quinn Patton

11. 11

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❚
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122008 p.30)

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14. 14
)

15. ACTIVITIES
OUTCOMES
IMPACT
INPUTS
Inspired by Jeff Conklin,
cognexus.org
Time
OUTPUTS
15

16. 16

17. OUTPUT
OUTCOME
INPUTS
ACTIVITY
INPUTS
ACTIVITY
INPUTS
ACTIVITY
INPUTS
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
ACTIVITY
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
OUTCOME
OUTCOME
OUTCOME
OUTCOME
OUTCOME
O
U
TCO
M
E
…
Time
17

18. 18
OUTPUT
OUTCOME
INPUTS
ACTIVITY
INPUTS
ACTIVITY
INPUTS
ACTIVITY
INPUTS
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
ACTIVITY
OUTPUT
OUTPUT
OUTCOME
OUTCOME
OUTCOME
OUTCOME
OUTCOME
O
U
TCO
M
E
…

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20. 20
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21. 21
https://santafe.edu/

22. 22

23. 23

24. 24

25. 25
https://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/how-to-plan-when-you-dont-know-what-is-going-
to-happen-redesigning-aid-for-complex-systems/

26. 26
THINKING AND WORKING POLITICALLY
THROUGH APPLIED POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS
A GUIDE FOR PRACTITIONERS
Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights and
Governance
TWP: Thinking and
Working Politically
DDD: Doing
Development Differently

27. 27
TWP
Duncan Green, From Poverty to Power 11/27/2018
https://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/thinking-and-working-politically-why-the-unexpected-success/
TWP
TWP
•
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• TWP
•
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• TWP
•
(2019 3

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29. 29
SYSTEMIC EVALUATION DESIGN
A WORKBOOK
BOB WILLIAMS

30. 30
2018 11 American Evaluation Association
Jonathan Morell, Applying Complexity to Make Practical Decisions About Program Theory,
Methodology, Data, and Stakeholder Engagement

31. 31
Power Law

32. 32
https://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/how-to-plan-when-you-dont-know-what-is-going-
to-happen-redesigning-aid-for-complex-systems/

33. #evalcomplexity2018
Policy
Places to intervene
Practices
Resource
Flows
Power
Dynamics
Relationships &
connections
Mental
Model
Structural
change
visible
Semi-visible
Transformative
change
invisible
33

34. 34
How do we
manage
attribution
to/win/in
collective
impact?

35. 35

36. C
S S
O C
a fork in the road
C C C C 9
DE
8 DE 1
“What is it that you don’t know that if you did know would make a difference to
what you do?”
M ?
https://youtu.be/wAryCSZI6Cw

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37

38. 38
Approach Stakeholder Assessment General Elimination
Method
Theory Based Counterfactual
Scenarios
EVALUATOR ROLE Journalist Detective Scientist Scenario Builder
UNIQUE
METHODS
Outcome Harvesting, Most
Significant Change/Instance
Process Tracing Theory of Change Rapid Impact
Evaluation
STRENGTHS Easy to understand; can
handle a lot of outcomes;
flexibility in approach.
Thorough process that
is culturally credible in
western cultures.
Works well with
existing theories of
change; designed to
tackle ‘complex’ causal
packages.
Very useful when a
group faced with
different strategies.
LIMITATIONS Sensitive to stakeholder
biases; not thorough in
addressing other factors.
Can take a long time to
complete.
Can take a long time to
complete; approach
still in development
with some unclear
steps.
Important to follow
model with high
fidelity; may not
perceived as credible
by external people.
EXPERTISE Modest expertise required;
effort varies.
Specialist skills in GEM
and process tracing
required.
Strong facilitation skills;
wide range of
evaluation skills.
Requires multiple types
of ‘content’ expertise.

39. 39
#evalcomplexity2018

40. 40
CHAT.CSI.EDU.AU
CONCEPTUALISING COLLABORATION
Collaboratio
n
Shared goal
Shared
resources
Shared
authority
Shared
accountabili
ty
Whole-
system
engagement
Communicat
ion flows
Adaptive
capacity
Systems
change as a
purpose Structure
Process

41. 41

42. 42

43. 43

44. +
ê

45. 45

46. 46
The world commands us. We do not command it. And yet – it
yields. So ”maybe” becomes a potent word for the brave, the
inventive, the adventurous (p. xiv)

47. 47

48. 48

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50. 50
n
S S M S
M I
S M S
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aOuDn
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