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Modernisation et croissance de la Russie: l'enjeu de la reconversion des monovilles

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Présentation au séminaire franco -russe d'économie -EHESS et Académise des Sciences de Russie, septembre 2016

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Modernisation et croissance de la Russie: l'enjeu de la reconversion des monovilles

  1. 1. Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy Claude Rochet Professeur des universités LAREQUOI Université de Versailles Saint Quentin-en-Yvelines Claude.rochet@univ-amu.fr 17/09/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 1
  2. 2. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 2
  3. 3. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 17/09/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 3
  4. 4. Top down mono functional city 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 Togliatti (Russia): Monocities have turned to be an obstacle to growth in Russia, representing up to 31% GDP. 4
  5. 5. Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities 17/09/2016 Decreasing returns due to specialization in primary activities and localization in remote places • 335 mono villes (31% des villes) • 16 Mons hab. (25% pop. Urbaine) • Taux urbanisation: 75% Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
  6. 6. What a smart city can’t be  A collection of « smarties »  A techno centric city  A city without past  = EU ideology!  A deterministic system 17/09/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 Smart city = Integrated complex system 6
  7. 7. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 7
  8. 8. Cities scaling laws 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 Densité Potentiel d’interconnexions Y=x2 Loi de Metcalfe But….. Distance Interconnexionsréelles Lois de Von Thünen Tobler Externalités+et_ Taille But….. Taille Nombredevilles Lois de Marshall West Bettencourt Lois de Zipf 8
  9. 9. Combining these laws: 17/09/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 Size x Number of cities Connectionsxwealth New town Clustering medium size cities New town Defining the perimeter and the « in and out » interrelations of the system is a key issue in cities’system design 9
  10. 10. Good and bad complexity 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 At a certain point growing complexity produces more negative than positive externalities and become unmonitorable Bad complexity Good complexity Growing size Growingcomplexity E. g. Detroit, Russian monocities… 10
  11. 11. A (really) smart city is an emerging ecosystem  Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x connected objects whose quantity and speed is in dramatic increase at date.  The behavior of a system is predictable when the sequence of transitions from one state to another can be described.  Emergence takes place when the space of possible states or rules of transitions change: the city can’t be described by the model that described it until then. (Heylighen & Joslyn 1991)  Modeling emergence implies: 1. Mapping the properties, desirable an undesirable, the system can take. 2. The values attached to theses properties in a precise context. 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 11
  12. 12. A smart city is an integration of two kinds of systems 17/09/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 Hard systems may be modeled thanks to the laws of physics (conservative systems) Soft systems can’t be modeled with the laws of physics (dissipative systems) - Social sciences - Big data - Autopoeisis - Multi-agents modeling The key of the success is here… … while business is there Politics must prevail on a bottom up basis 12
  13. 13. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 13
  14. 14. Middle age cities were smart: organic development, common good, synergies between economic activities 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 Common good Vivere politico Economic welfare Pivate good 14
  15. 15. Direct democracy was at the root of the city life and its organic evolution 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 15 Novogorod veche Новгоро́дская респу́блика вече
  16. 16. Middle Age cities grew on an organic planning basis « Organic planning does not begin with a preconceived goal; it moves from need to need, from opportunity to opportunity, in a series of adaptations that themselves become increasingly coherent and purposeful, so that they generate a complex final design, hardly less unified than a pre-formed geometric pattern. » 9/17/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 16
  17. 17. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 17
  18. 18. Urban dynamics: from neo cybernetics to autopeosis First order cybernetics (Forrester): The city as a self regulating system… ... Or a super command and control machinery (Rio) The 2nd order of cybernetics includes autopoeisis of human dissipative systems The complexity of the city is a combination of several laws There is a positive correlation between growth of the city size and its complexity.... ... But there is a good and a bad complexity 17/09/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 18
  19. 19. A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self regulate 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 19
  20. 20. First order cybernetics city 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 The myth of the super mind and perfect control IBM at Rio do Janeiro 20
  21. 21. Autopoeisis: Why and How? An autopoeitic system is “”a network of processes of production (transformation and destruction) of components which: (i) through their interactions and transformations continuously regenerate and realize the network of processes that produced them; and (ii) constitute it as a concrete unity in space in which they (the components) exist by specifying the topological domain of its realization as such a network.” H. Maturana Autopoeisis is a property of human dissipative system: strong entropy and correlative capabilities to reproduce itself permanently thanks to its internal interactions 17/09/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 21
  22. 22. Autopoeisis: Why and How? Autopoeisis makes the system able to face with the rapid changing of the environment: “This generalized view of autopoiesis considers systems as self-producing not in terms of their physical components, but in terms of its organization, which can be measured in terms of information and complexity. In other words, we can describe autopoietic systems as those producing more of their own complexity than the one produced by their environment". C. Gershenson 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 22
  23. 23. Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on “ordinary actions of the people” 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 NO! An evolutionary process Integration process is bottom-up… … based on ordinary interactions  We must understand how ordinary people behave  Q: Is there an architect with a master plan? 23
  24. 24. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 24
  25. 25. Strategic Analysis 26/01/2016 25 Why building a city & what are the strategic goals? Who are the stakeholders? What are the generic functions to be performed by a smart city? With which organs? Technical devices, software… With which smart people? Conception, metamodel framework, steering Subsystems and processes People and tools Why designing this ecosystem? Who will live in the city? What are its activities? How the city will be fed? Where the city is located ? (context) What are the functions to be performed to reach the goals and how do they interact? With which organs and ressources? How people will interact with the artifacts? How civic life will organize?
  26. 26. Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (1)  Economy:  An economic structure based on synergies of economics activities is the condition to wealth creation which reinforces itself through interaction of a political power based on the Common Good (Reinert, 2006, Rochet, 2012)  FFF (Failed, Fragile and Failing states) : The missing link is related to the lack of increasing returns based on « coopetitive » diffusion of means (…) productive governance often enforces the development sustainable productive structures based usually on a participatory system.  “State failure an fragility are often preceded, or at least accompanied, by failure and fragility of cities” (Reinert & Kattel, 2009)  “The more the participatory system is closed to democracy and shared economic growth with special focus on health, education and communication infrastructure building, more quickly the divergence between countries narrow down.» (Reinert &Kattel, 2009) 17/09/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 26
  27. 27. Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (2) Resilience: A smart city is a highly internally connected facing with a turbulent environment, that challenges its resilience. Strong social capabilities enforces the autopoeitic properties of the system, and consequently its resilience. E.g. Christchurch (NZ) 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 26/01/2016 27 27
  28. 28. Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (3) Citizen is at the interface of technological devices which consume and produce data (e.g. The smart phone) The frontier between production and consumption is blurred more than in other cases of information economy (McLuhan) In a rapid innovative system the citizen is a lead user of the innovation process (Von Hippel). The power of these technical systems requires strong political control to be both fully efficient and not becoming the level of a totalitarian system (Simondon). 17/09/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 28
  29. 29. Direct democracy has a strong record in the management of cities and complex systems 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016  Schumpeterian economics correlates synergies between activities, political freedom and common weal.  Traditional decision making system may help modeling a resilient human system e.g: ongoing research project of modeling an eco-efficient drinking water network in Angola with the palaver tree 29
  30. 30. The false green cities 26/01/2016 30 Integrating imported pollution, energy waste…. produced by a dysfunctional ecosystem Is the city really green? The worst case: Paris socio- ethnic greenwashing
  31. 31. The perfectly integrated smart city: Singapore 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 31
  32. 32. Singapore vs. Norilsk 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 32 Common features: Unhealthy and hostile climate, no reason for existing except a political will, no natural assets, no industry, no initial social capital… Depressing monoindustry A city thought from the beginning as a smart nation
  33. 33. New paradigms in public decision making  Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large scale  Bottom up decision processes : e.g. Michael Batty modeling decision process as a Markov chains to bring back the city in a ergodic state  Large deliberative upfront processes reduce uncertainty e.g. The Parable of the Hare and the Tortoise: Small Worlds, Diversity, and System Performance (Lazer & Friedman 2005)  « In short, cities are more like biological than mechanical systems. The rise of the sciences of complexity, which have changed the direction of system theory from top down to the bottom-up is one that treats such systems as open, based more on the product of an evolutionary process than a grand design » Michael Batty « A new Science of Cities » 2015 17/09/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 33
  34. 34. A paradoxical research question: Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should not need a government?  At date, if we assume the benchmark of a smart city is Singapore, it’s not really a democracy.  At date, we don’t know large system that have developped spontaneously self organizing properties .  Rules, as a genetic code of an ecosystem, are the result of a long term learning process: Cf. biomimicry  A Machiavellian approach: The Prince is to fix the good institution from the top down giving the citizens the rights to challenge the power of the few in charge.  We have a lot of reference of direct democracy experiences, how they were born, how they died. 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 34
  35. 35. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 17/09/2016Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 35
  36. 36. Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy 9/17/2016 Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016 36 Training of actors, Knowledge transfer to SME Smart Cities Pilot Projects Social capabilities improvement System modeling and integration capacities Investments and reference realizations Territories development Technology transfer Absorptive capacities Organic development R&D Actions Realizations Strategic assets Autopoeisis
  37. 37. Merci! 26/01/2016 37 37 Thank you! Спасибо

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