1.
CRFB.org

2.
CRFB.org
The Economy Faces Unprecedented Damage
Millions of people out of work, relative to Q4 of 2019
Source: Congressional Budget Office
HISTORIC PROJECTED
-19.3
-12.6
-10.6
-9.3 -8.6 -8.1
-5.3
-4.4
-3.8
-3.4
-2.9
-2.5
0
-0.9
-24.6
-17.0
-14.4
-12.7
-11.5
-10.6
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Q4 Q1
2020
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2021
Q2 Q3 Q4
Unemployment Effect
Labor Force Effect
-17.8
-7.8
-25.6
2

3.
CRFB.org
Policymakers Have Committed Trillions to Save It
Trillions
*Some Fed facilities and programs have no announced cap or maximum, in which case, we assume the
max as the largest amount disbursed or committed since the crisis began.
$2.4 trillion
$1.6 trillion
$307 billion
>$5.8 trillion*
$3.6 trillion
$380 billion
$2.4 trillion
$80 billion
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Federal Reserve Actions Legislative Actions Administrative Actions
Amount Authorized
Amount Disbursed/Committed
Deficit Impact
3

4.
CRFB.org
Through Multiple Laws, Orders, and Facilities
Response Allowed Disbursed/Committed Deficit Impact
Legislative Actions $3.6 trillion $1.6 trillion $2.4 trillion
Coronavirus Preparedness & Response Supplemental Appropriations Act $8 billion >$2 billion $8 billion
Families First Coronavirus Response Act $192 billion ~$48 billion $192 billion
CARES Act $2.7 trillion $1.4 trillion $1.7 trillion
Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act $733 billion $203 billion $483 billion
Administrative Actions ~$380 billion ~$307 billion ~$80 billion
Declare national emergency ~$50 billion Unknown ~$50 billion
Delay tax filing deadline to July 15 ~$300 billion ~$300 billion $0
Other executive actions ~$30 billion $7 billion ~$30 billion
Federal Reserve Actions >$5.8 trillion $2.4 trillion N/A
Interest rate changes N/A N/A N/A
Asset purchases $1.9 trillion** $1.8 trillion N/A
Liquidity measures >$1.9 trillion $473 billion N/A
Emergency lending programs and facilities >$2.1 trillion $130 billion N/A
Deficit impact is from 2020-2030
**Represents amount disbursed plus the amount scheduled to be purchased through the following week, currently $31 billion for Treasuries and $27 billion
for mortgage-backed securities.
4

5.
CRFB.org
www.COVIDMoneyTracker.org
But How Much Has Been Disbursed?
Where Is It Going? And Is It Working?
5

6.
CRFB.org
The Fed Provided Fast Liquidity
Response Announced Allowed Disbursed
Cut federal funds rate by 0.5% to 1-1.25% March 3 N/A N/A
Cut federal funds rate by 1% to near-zero March 15 N/A N/A
Subtotal, Interest Rate Changes N/A N/A
Increase long-term Treasury security holdings March 12-23 $1.35 trillion** $1.32 trillion^
Increase mortgage-backed security holdings March 12-23 $503 billion** $476 billion^
Subtotal, Asset Purchases $1.85 trillion** $1.79 trillion^
Increase overnight repo operations March 9-16 $500 billion
$25 billion*Increase one-month term repo operations March 11-16 $500 billion
Increase three-month term repo operations March 12-16 $500 billion
Increase central bank dollar swap line arrangements March 15 N/A $449 billion
Establish FIMA Repo Facility March 31 N/A $0 billion
Subtotal, Liquidity Measures >$1.95 trillion $473 billion
6

7.
CRFB.org
Feb. 26th:
$4.16 trillion
May 27th:
$7.06 trillion
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mortgage Backed
Securities
U.S. Treasuries
Other
The Fed Provided Fast Liquidity
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
$4.11
trillion
$1.84
trillion
$1.11
trillion
7

8.
CRFB.org
And is Beginning Targeted Lending Programs
Response Date
Amount
Allowed
Amount
Disbursed
Re-institute Primary Dealer Credit Facility March 20 (est. March 17) N/A $7 billion
Re-institute Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility March 23 (est. March 23) N/A $34 billion
Re-institute Commercial Paper Funding Facility April 14 (est. March 17) N/A $12 billion
Establish Paycheck Protection Program Loan Facility April 16 (est. April 6) N/A $0
Establish Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility May 12 (est. March 23) $250 billion
$30 billion
Establish Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility Late May (est. March 23) $500 billion
Establish Main Street Business Lending Program^^ Early June (est. April 6) $600 billion $0
Re-institute Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility June 17 (est. March 23) $100 billion $0
Establish Municipal Liquidity Facility^^ TBD (est. April 9) $500 billion $0
Subtotal, Emergency Lending >$2.05 trillion $130 billion
Total >$5.8 trillion $2.4 trillion
Memo: Total Federal Reserve Balance Sheet $7.1 trillion
Memo: Increase in Balance Sheet Since February 26 $3.0 trillion
8

9.
CRFB.org
Almost Half of the Fiscal Support is Out the Door
Billions
9
$349
$261
$108 $89
$201
$77 $49
$144 $131
$194
$11
$25
$670
$293
$264
$646
$500
$200 $192
$150
$700
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Paycheck
Protection
Program
Economic
Impact
Payments
Unemployment
Benefits
Business
Tax Relief
Economic
Stabilization
Fund
Health Provider
Relief
Families
First
Coronavirus
Relief
Fund
Other
Committed/Disbursed (Tranche I)
Committed/Disbursed (Tranche II)
Remaining
Total Deficit Impact

10.
CRFB.org
$150 billion
51%
$158 billion
54%
$160 billion
55%
$207 billion
71%
$221 billion
76%
$257 billion
88%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Including 88% of Economic Impact Payments
Billions Spent on Economic Impact Payments (and Percent of Projected Cost)
Source: IRS, JCT, CRFB calculations
Economic Impact Payment Disbursements
March13:NationalEmergencyDeclared
March27:CARESActSignedintoLaw
10

11.
CRFB.org
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Returns*
Tranche I
Tranche II
And Over $500 Billion of Paycheck Protection Loans
*CRFB calculations based on SBA data releases. An estimated $30 billion in loans have either
been cancelled, were duplicative or not closed, or paid off.
Source: Small Business Administration, Media Reports
Billions
March13:NationalEmergencyDeclared
March27:CARESActSignedintoLaw
11

12.
CRFB.org
Along with Support from Other Programs
Airline Grant Loan Total
American Airlines $4.1 billion $1.7 billion $5.8 billion
Delta Airlines $3.8 billion $1.6 billion $5.4 billion
United Airlines $3.5 billion $1.5 billion $5.0 billion
Southwest Airlines $2.3 billion $1.0 billion $3.3 billion
Alaska Airlines $725 million $267 million $992 million
JetBlue Airways $685.1 million $250.7 million $935.8 million
SkyWest Airlines $336.6 million $101.4 million $438 million
Spirit Airways $264.3 million $70.4 million $334.7 million
Hawaiian Airlines $233 million $57 million $290 million
Allegiant Air $86 million $85.9 million $171.9 million
Mesa Airlines $92.5 million N/A* $92.5 million
Total Disclosed $16.1 billion $6.6 billion $22.8 billion
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
12

13.
CRFB.org
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
K
5M
10M
15M
20M
25M
30M
35M
40M
29-Feb 7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May
Total: $125bn
Over 25 Million People Are Collecting Unemployment Benefits
Billions
Weekly
Unemployment
Insurance Spending
Note: Continuing claims includes Regular State, Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), and Pandemic Emergency
Unemployment Compensation (PEUC). Week ending May 23 is estimated. Initial claims are not seasonally
adjusted
Source: Department of Labor, U.S. Treasury, CRFB estimates.
March13:NationalEmergencyDeclared
March27:CARESActSignedintoLaw
April5:$600UIBonusBegins
Millions of Unemployed People
13
0
WeekEndingApril25:EligibilityExpandedinMostStates

14.
CRFB.org
Is It Working?
14

15.
CRFB.org
Job Losses Continue to Mount
15

16.
CRFB.org
And Market Income is Falling
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
January February March April
Monthly After-Tax Income (Billions)
10% Decrease
from February
Market Income
(minus taxes)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 16

17.
CRFB.org
And Market Income is Falling
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
January February March April
Monthly After-Tax Income (Billions)
7% Decrease
from February
Market Income
(minus taxes)
Government Transfers
(excluding UI and rebates)
17Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

18.
CRFB.org
But Total Income is Rising
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
January February March April
Monthly After-Tax Income (Billions)
Market Income
(minus taxes)
Government Transfers
(excluding UI and EIP)
Economic
Impact Payments
Unemployment 13% Increase
from February
18Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

19.
CRFB.org
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
January February March April May
Illustrative Monthly After-Tax Income (Billions), Assuming Flat Market and Transfer Income in May
Market Income
(minus taxes)
Government Transfers
(excluding UI and rebates)
Economic
Impact Payments
Unemployment
3% Increase
from February
But Total Income is Rising
May is a rough CRFB projection, assuming no net change in market and transfer income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 19

20.
CRFB.org
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
January February March April May
Illustrative Monthly After-Tax Income (Billions), Amortizing Rebates over Four Months
Market Income
(minus taxes)
Government Transfers
(excluding UI and rebates)
Amortized Rebates
Unemployment
6% Increase
from February
But Total Income is Rising
20
May is a rough CRFB projection, assuming no net change in market and transfer income . Refunds
amortized over four months.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

21.
CRFB.org
People Are Using That Money to Pay Rent
4.1%
5.2%
8.3%
6.7%
17.1%
18.3%
22.0%
19.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
April, 2019 May, 2019 April, 2020 May, 2020
Unpaid Paid Late
21
Percent of Tenants
Unpaid = not paid as of the 27th of the month. Paid Late = not paid as of the 6th of the month.
Source: National Multifamily Housing Council

22.
CRFB.org
But for the Most Part, They are Saving It
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
Wages and Salaries
Wage Supplements
Spending on Services
Spending on Goods
Savings
Other Government Transfers
Other Income
Personal Income
Other
Spending
Unemployment
Personal Spending
22
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wall Street Journal.

23.
CRFB.org
And Consumer Confidence Remains Low
100.0
98.2 98.4
89.8
93.2
95.5
96.8
99.3 99.8
101.0
89.1
71.8 72.3
60
70
80
90
100
110
May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20
Index of Consumer Sentiment
23
Source: University of Michigan

24.
CRFB.org
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Week of
4/26
Week of
5/3
Week of
5/10
Week of
5/17
Business Are Getting Their Loans
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Percent that Requested Economic Injury Disaster Loans
Percent that Requested Paycheck Projection Loans
Percent
24

25.
CRFB.org
And Now Have More Cash on Hand
Note: Excludes “Don't Know” responses.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
48.0%
44.3%
41.5%
32.9%
41.5%
43.6%
46.1%
57.1%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Week of
4/26
Week of
5/3
Week of
5/10
Week of
5/17
Percent
25

26.
CRFB.org
But Are Not Bringing Back Most of Their Workers
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendred, and Stepner; TrackTheRecovery.org
26

27.
CRFB.org
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
January February March April May
The Fed Has Stabilized the Bond Market…For Now
Source: Yahoo! Finance
ICE BofA US High Yield Index
Option-Adjusted Spread
ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index
Option-Adjusted Spread March23:FedAnnounces
BondBuyingProgram
Percent
May12:FedBegins
BuyingCorporatebonds
27
April9:FedAnnouncesHigh-
YieldBondBuyingProgram

28.
CRFB.org
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
January February March April May
The Fed Has Stabilized the Bond Market…For Now
Source: Yahoo! Finance
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays
High Yield Bond ETF
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade
Corporate Bond ETF
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate
Bond Index Fund ETF
Share Price at Close
March23:FedAnnounces
BondBuyingProgram
May12:FedBegins
BuyingCorporatebonds
28
April9:FedAnnouncesHigh-
YieldBondBuyingProgram

29.
CRFB.org
More Support Will Likely Be Needed…
▪ State and local governments face hundreds of billions in
lost revenue
▪ The Paycheck Protection Program provides only 8 weeks
of funding
▪ Expanded unemployment benefits expire at the end of
July
▪ Social Distancing will likely continue through at least the
end of 2020
29

30.
CRFB.org
The House Passed a $3 Trillion Package
Policy Ten-Year Cost/Savings
(-)
Provide Aid to State and Local Governments $1.07 to $1.09 trillion
Increase Safety Net Spending >$350 to >$500 billion
Provide Additional Rebates $435 billion
Support Small Businesses and Employee Retention $311 billion
Increase Health Care-Related Spending >$292 billion
Reduce Individual Taxes $291 billion
Provide Student Loan Relief and Funding for Higher Education $250 billion
Increase Housing-Related Spending $202 billion
Establish Hazard Pay Fund for Essential Workers $200 billion
Increase Communications-Related Spending $41 billion
Provide Pension Relief >$18 billion
Increase Agriculture Spending >$17 billion
Limit Business Loss Deductibility -$254 billion
HEROES Act (Passed House May 15, 2020) ~$3 trillion
30

31.
CRFB.org
265%
101%
218%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
200%
240%
280%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
But At Some Point, the Bill Will Come Due
HISTORIC PROJECTED
Source: CBO, CRFB Calculations
31

32.
CRFB.org

33.
CRFB.org
Legislative Responses to COVID-19 in Early March
Response Allowed Disbursed/Committed Deficit Impact
Fund R&D for vaccines, testing, and other treatments $3 billion <$1 billion $3 billion
Increase funding for Centers for Disease Control $2 billion $1 billion $2 billion
Increase funding for preparedness and supplies, and for
Community Health Centers
$1 billion <$1 billion $1 billion
Fund the State Department health response overseas $1 billion $1 billion $1 billion
Waive restrictions for Medicare telehealth and other spending $1 billion <$1 billion $1 billion
Coronavirus Preparedness & Response Supplemental
Appropriations Act (March 4, 2020)
$8 billion >$2 billion $8 billion
Mandate and subsidize emergency paid leave $105 billion ~$30 billion $105 billion
Increase Medicaid matching funds to states $50 billion ~$16 billion $50 billion
Allow states to increase SNAP benefits, waive work requirements $21 billion $2 billion $21 billion
Require and partially fund free COVID-19 testing $10 billion Unknown $10 billion
Fund extended unemployment benefits past 26 weeks $5 billion <$1 billion $5 billion
Increase funding for nutrition programs $1 billion <$1 billion $1 billion
Families First Coronavirus Response Act (March 18, 2020) $192 billion ~$48 billion $192 billion
33

34.
CRFB.org
The CARES Act
Response Allowed Disbursed/Committed Deficit Impact
Expand Unemployment Benefits - expand eligibility, increase benefits by
$600/week, extend 13 weeks, and other changes
$268 billion ~$110 billion $268 billion
Provide tax rebates of $1,200/adult and $500/child $293 billion $261 billion $293 billion
Support $4.5 trillion of Federal Reserve loans $454 billion $185 billion* $0 billion
Provide forgivable small business loans (Paycheck Protection Program) $349 billion $349 billion $349 billion
Subsidize loan payments for existing SBA loans for 6 months $17 billion Unknown $17 billion
Provide aid to states for pandemic-related costs $150 billion $144 billion $150 billion
Provide payments to hospitals (Provider Relief Fund) $100 billion $77 billion $100 billion
Loosen TCJA-imposed caps on interest deductibility & operating losses $239 billion^ Minimal $174 billion
Offer payroll tax credits for some businesses who retain workers at a loss $57 billion ~$19 billion $57 billion
Delay employer payroll tax payments for some businesses $352 billion^ ~$70 billion $12 billion
Provide loans to airlines and firms vital to national security $46 billion $16 billion $1 billion
Expand FEMA Disaster Assistance Fund $45 billion $5 billion $44 billion
Increase preparedness and health agency funding $37 billion <$1 billion $37 billion
Provide grants to airlines to avoid furloughs & pay cuts $32 billion $23 billion $24 billion
Establish Education Stabilization Fund for states $31 billion $27 billion $31 billion
Defer student loan payments for 6 months and preserve student aid $30 billion Unknown $9 billion
Increase Medicare payments and repeal sequester, expand telehealth & home
services, fund community health centers
$28 billion $5 billion -$1 billion
34

35.
CRFB.org
The CARES Act
Response Allowed Disbursed/Committed Deficit Impact
Issue infrastructure grants to transit providers, including state & local governments $25 billion $25 billion $25 billion
Increase SNAP & child nutrition funding $25 billion Unknown $25 billion
Increase funding toward veterans & defense health $20 billion Unknown $19 billion
Boost housing support $12 billion $5 billion $12 billion
Provide emergency grants (EIDL) for small businesses $11 billion $11 billion $11 billion
Provide grants to publicly-owned commercial airports $10 billion $10 billion $10 billion
Provide loans to postal service $10 billion $0 $10 billion
Allow use of health savings accounts for over-the-counter medication and
menstrual products
$9 billion Unknown $9 billion
Allow emergency retirement account withdrawals $8 billion Unknown $8 billion
Increase child & family services funding $5 billion $4 billion $5 billion
Suspend aviation taxes $4 billion Unknown $4 billion
Let nonitemizers deduct up to $300 of charitable donations and loosen caps on
charitable deduction
$3 billion $0 $3 billion
Other policies $18 billion Unknown $18 billion
CARES Act (March 27, 2020) $2.7 trillion $1.4 trillion $1.7 trillion
Total, Legislation $2.9 trillion >$840 billion $2.0 trillion
35

36.
CRFB.org
The Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care
Enhancement Act
Response Allowed Disbursed/Committed Deficit
Impact
Increase funding for forgivable small business loans (Paycheck
Protection Program)
$321 billion $194 billion $321 billion
Expand health provider emergency grant fund program for
COVID-19 preparedness and expenses
$75 billion
$11 billion
$75 billion
Provide emergency grant fund program for COVID-19 testing $25 billion $25 billion
Increase small business emergency loan (EIDL) authorization $300 billion^ $25 billion $50 billion
Increase funding for small business emergency grants (EIDL) $10 billion Unknown $10 billion
Increase funding for Small Business Administration $2 billion Unknown $2 billion
The Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care
Enhancement Act (April 24, 2020)
$733 billion $230 billion $483 billion
Total, Legislation $3.6 trillion $1.6 trillion $2.4 trillion
36

37.
CRFB.org
Administrative Actions
Response Allowed Disbursed/Committed Deficit Impact
Declare national emergency (March 13, 2020) ~$50 billion* Unknown ~$50 billion
Allow high-deductible plans to pay for COVID-19 testing and
treatment (March 11, 2020)
Unknown N/A Unknown
Delay tax filing deadline to July 15 (March 17, 2020) $300 billion ~$300 billion $0 billion
Institute 60-day moratorium on federal student loan interest
(March 20, 2020)
~$10 billion N/A ~$10 billion
Institute 60-day moratorium on evictions and foreclosures for
FHA-backed mortgages (March 18, 2020)
$0 billion $0 billion $0 billion
Begin Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (April 17, 2020) $19 billion $7 billion $19 billion**
Institute 60-day suspension on certain immigrants entering
the country (April 22, 2020)
Unknown N/A Unknown
Relax residency requirements to allow U.S. nationals living
abroad to qualify for foreign earned income exclusion (May
11, 2020)
Unknown $0 Unknown
Allow employees to make mid-year changes to flexible
spending accounts and spend them through the end of 2020
(May 12, 2020)
<$1 billion $0 <$1 billion
Total, Administrative Actions >$380 billion Unknown ~$80 billion
37

38.
CRFB.org
Economic Impact Payments, By States
Note: Chart shows data from May 22th (latest available)
Source: Internal Revenue Service, Census Bureau
VT
$891
NH
$838
NJ
$733
CT
$732
RI
$821
MA
$730
DE
$799
MD
$725
DC
$598
HI
$833
IL
$760
38

39.
CRFB.org
PPP Funding, By Industry
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
3.1%
3.1%
4.5%
5.2%
5.7%
8.6%
8.9%
11.7%
12.0%
12.6%
13.1%
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50
Utilities
Public Administration
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Information
Educational Services
Finance and Insurance
Transportation and Warehousing
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Administrative/Support/Waste Management/Remediation Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Manufacturing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Construction
Paycheck Protection Program Loans, by Industry
Percent of Loans Disbursed
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
39

40.
CRFB.org
PPP Loans by Size
85.0%
8.5%
4.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.1%
25.7%
16.1%
21.9%
14.3%
14.8%
6.9%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%
$150,000 and Under
>$150,000 - $350,000
>$350,000 - $1 million
>$1 million - $2 million
>$2 million - $5 million
>$5 million % PPP Dollars Approved
% of Loans Approved
40
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

41.
CRFB.org
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Projected Real GDP
Real GDP (trillions)
Source: Congressional Budget Office
HISTORIC PROJECTED
41