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Potential for increasing the role of
renewables in Mekong power supply
(MK14)
CPWF Mekong Forum – Session 12, 20 November ...
Content
1. Solar PV for commercial buildings: power sector benefits
2. Potential of solar PV development in commercial bui...
Solar PV in commercial buildings: Power sector
benefits

26.11.13

Seite 3 3
Page
Correlation between solar PV output and building
load demand
•

High correlation between solar PV
and building load demand...
Benefits to the power sector
•
•
•

Save transmission and distribution cost
Reduce transmission and distribution losses
Av...
National load curve in Viet Nam
National: 2 peaks
 Morning peak: 10-11am
 Evening peak: 18-19 pm

The South: 2 peaks
 M...
Potential of solar PV development in commercial
buildings in Viet Nam

26.11.13

Seite 7 7
Page
Potential of solar PV development for hotels in Ho
Chi Minh city (demand side)
•

Overlay typical solar PV production curv...
Potential of solar PV development for office
buildings in Ho Chi Minh city (demand side)
•

Overlay typical solar PV produ...
Available rooftop area for installing solar PV system
sufficient?
•
•

Total floor area: 29,000 m2
Roof area: ~ 2000 m2

-...
Potential of ground mounted solar PV
Selection criteria

•
•

Solar radiation: ≥ 5 kWh/m2/day
Suitable areas:
• Waste land...
Economics of solar PV and the proposed supporting
mechanism

26.11.13

Seite 1212
Page
Economics of solar PV
 Economics of solar PV are largely determined by 2 main variables:
 Investment cost

 Power outpu...
Specific investment cost

Source: http://www.solarserver.com/service/pvx-spotmarket-price-index-solar-pv-modules.html

Sou...
Power output and the levelized cost
 Power output depends on solar radiation, solar PV types and the tilted angle
and dir...
Value of solar PV: power system avoided cost versus
user avoided cost
Electrical selling price for commercial
customers in...
Supporting mechanism for solar PV
Supporting mechanism for solar PV in Europe

• Feed-in tariff (FIT) is the most
common m...
FIT estimate for rooftop solar PV
Inputs

•
•
•
•
•
•

Generic solar PV system: 20 kWp
Specific investment cost: 2 $/Wp
O&...
FIT estimate versus Thailand FIT tariff
Estimated

• FIT rate: 19.5 US cent/kWh, equal
to 4,193 đ/kWh

• Duration: 20 year...
Other incentives
Financial incentives

• Tax: Preferential import tax and corporate income tax exist
• Investment: has bee...
Volatility of solar PV output

26.11.13

Seite 2121
Page
Volatility of solar PV output

The correlation is high
between building load
demand and solar availability.
So PV provides...
Prospect for solar PV

26.11.13

Seite 2323
Page
Climate Change increase numbers of hot day

26.11.13

Seite 2424
Page
Further investment cost improvement
Prospect of global Solar PV market
Price and cummulative
production volume

Source: Gl...
Summary of policy options

26.11.13

Seite 2626
Page
Summary of policy options
Option 1 – Business As Usual

 No FIT
 Market driven
 Support Net Metering

Option 2 – Promot...
Thank you
Mekong Forum | 19-21 November 2013
Nguyen Quoc Khanh
(mail2knguyen@yahoo.com)

26.11.13

Seite 2828
Page
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Solar pv in vietnam power sector benefits, costs and policy

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3rd Mekong Forum on Water, Food & Energy 2013. Presentation from Session 14: Alternative electricity sources and planning for the Mekong.

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Solar pv in vietnam power sector benefits, costs and policy

  1. 1. Potential for increasing the role of renewables in Mekong power supply (MK14) CPWF Mekong Forum – Session 12, 20 November 2013 Solar PV in Vietnam: Power sector benefits, costs and policy Nguyen Quoc Khanh 26.11.13 Seite 1 1 Page
  2. 2. Content 1. Solar PV for commercial buildings: power sector benefits 2. Potential of solar PV development in commercial buildings 3. Economics of building solar PV and the proposed supporting mechanism 4. Volatility of solar PV 5. Prospect for solar PV applications 6. Summary of policy options for solar PV 26.11.13 Seite 2 2 Page
  3. 3. Solar PV in commercial buildings: Power sector benefits 26.11.13 Seite 3 3 Page
  4. 4. Correlation between solar PV output and building load demand • High correlation between solar PV and building load demand which is characterized by cooling demand • The difference happens after 5:00 pm when solar PV stops generating power while the building is still in operation → Solar PV could be installed on building rooftop to meet its demand → Highly relevant for the south where solar radiation is quite stable throughout the year 26.11.13 Seite 4 4 Page
  5. 5. Benefits to the power sector • • • Save transmission and distribution cost Reduce transmission and distribution losses Avoid the need for high cost power generation Power can be produced at the users using e.g., solar PV 26.11.13 Seite 5 5 Page
  6. 6. National load curve in Viet Nam National: 2 peaks  Morning peak: 10-11am  Evening peak: 18-19 pm The South: 2 peaks  Morning peak: 10 am  Afternoon peak: 15 pm 14000 12000 10000 MW 8000 6000 4000 The South load curve contributes 50-55% to the national load. 2000 2009 Trung Ngày LV 2009 Nam Ngày LV 23:00 22:00 21:00 20:00 19:00 18:00 17:00 16:00 15:00 14:00 13:00 12:00 11:00 10:00 9:00 8:00 7:00 6:00 5:00 4:00 3:00 2:00 1:00 0:00 0 2009 Bắc Ngày LV 26.11.13 Seite 6 6 Page
  7. 7. Potential of solar PV development in commercial buildings in Viet Nam 26.11.13 Seite 7 7 Page
  8. 8. Potential of solar PV development for hotels in Ho Chi Minh city (demand side) • Overlay typical solar PV production curve to typical load curve of Hotels • Adjust solar PV electrical generation capacity so that the peak load section of the hotel’s load curve is minimised. MW 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 Typical load curve of hotels in HCM city 30.0 Installable capacity of solar PV in hotels in HCM city 25.0 20.0 Load curve of hotels in HCM city with solar PV 15.0 Solar PV potential (demand side): 47 MW 10.0 5.0 0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 26.11.13 Seite 8 8 Page
  9. 9. Potential of solar PV development for office buildings in Ho Chi Minh city (demand side) • Overlay typical solar PV production curve to typical load curve of office buildings • Adjust solar PV electrical generation capacity so that the peak load section of the office buildings’ load curve is minimised. 60.0 50.0 Typical load curve of office building in HCM city 40.0 30.0 Installable capacity of solar PV in office buildings in HCM city 20.0 Solar PV potential (demand side): 66 MW Load curve of office buildings in HCM city with solar PV 10.0 0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 26.11.13 Seite 9 9 Page
  10. 10. Available rooftop area for installing solar PV system sufficient? • • Total floor area: 29,000 m2 Roof area: ~ 2000 m2 -> able to accommodate 250 kWp solar PV system Less than “optimal” solar PV capacity: 1.5 MWp Develop ground mounted Develop ground mounted solar PV solar PV Note: Metropolitan building, TP HCM Figure: ground mounted solar PV at Bangchak, Attuthaya, Thailand 26.11.13 Seite 1010 Page
  11. 11. Potential of ground mounted solar PV Selection criteria • • Solar radiation: ≥ 5 kWh/m2/day Suitable areas: • Waste land with flat topography and with road and grid, close to load centers • Distance from road: ≤2 km • Distance from electrical grid: ≤ 5 km • Land slope: ≤ 5o • • GIS assisted approach • • Mainly concentrate in the southern region Total suitable area identified: 441 km2 , able to accommodate 22,000 MWp Ninh Thuan has the greatest potential of approx 4,600 MWp 26.11.13 Seite 1111 Page
  12. 12. Economics of solar PV and the proposed supporting mechanism 26.11.13 Seite 1212 Page
  13. 13. Economics of solar PV  Economics of solar PV are largely determined by 2 main variables:  Investment cost  Power output 26.11.13 Seite 1313 Page
  14. 14. Specific investment cost Source: http://www.solarserver.com/service/pvx-spotmarket-price-index-solar-pv-modules.html Source: http://www.solarwirtschaft.de/preisindex  Specific investment cost: 2,0 $/Wp  Solar module: 0,7 $/Wp  Inverter: 0,3 $/Wp  Others: 1,0 $/Wp 26.11.13 Seite 1414 Page
  15. 15. Power output and the levelized cost  Power output depends on solar radiation, solar PV types and the tilted angle and direction of the solar panel installation Reference values Full load hours: 1500 hours/year, or Capacity factor: 17% Cost: 17,65 $ cent/kWh or 3.795 đ/kWh 26.11.13 Seite 1515 Page
  16. 16. Value of solar PV: power system avoided cost versus user avoided cost Electrical selling price for commercial customers in 2012 (đ/kWh) Avoided cost tariff in 2012 Dry season Wet season Peak hour Norm al hour Off peak Peak hour Nor mal hour Off peak Leftov er power 619 589 638 596 583 629 554 551 596 596 549 583 557 538 574 538 533 559 269 267 279 Energy cost (đ/kWh) Northern region Central region Southern region Capacity cost (đ/kWh) + Peak 3,715 + Normal 2,177 + Off-peak 1,343 1,805 Source: Decision No.06/QĐ-ĐTĐL dated 19/01/2012 Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam Wet Season: from July 1st to October 31st Dry season: from Nov 1st to June 31st Average buying price: 928 đ/kWh << Average selling price: 2,563 đ/kWh << Levelized cost: 3,795 đ/kWh 26.11.13 Seite 1616 Page
  17. 17. Supporting mechanism for solar PV Supporting mechanism for solar PV in Europe • Feed-in tariff (FIT) is the most common mechanism • Vietnam is applying FIT for renewable energies • FIT has been applied for wind power • FIT is being developed for biomass power Source: EPIA 26.11.13 Seite 1717 Page
  18. 18. FIT estimate for rooftop solar PV Inputs • • • • • • Generic solar PV system: 20 kWp Specific investment cost: 2 $/Wp O&M cost: 1.5% of total investment Capacity factor: 17% Full load hours: 1500 hours Lifetime: 20 years • • • • • Financing: 20% equity, 80% loans Loan interest: 6% p.a , Loan term: 15 years Corporation income tax: 10% Depreciation: 20 years Hurdling FIRR: 16% → FIT rate: 19.5 US cent/kWh Equal to 4,193 đ/kWh 26.11.13 Seite 1818 Page
  19. 19. FIT estimate versus Thailand FIT tariff Estimated • FIT rate: 19.5 US cent/kWh, equal to 4,193 đ/kWh • Duration: 20 years FIT in Thailand Rooftop solar PV package Size 0-10kW FIT rate FIT rate (Baht/kWh) (đ/kWh) 6.96 4,628 10-250 kW 6.55 4,356 250 kW-1 MW 6.16 4,096 Quota 100 MW 100 MW 1 MW/1 commune package Year 1-3 FIT Rate FIT Rate (Baht/kWh) (đ/kWh) 9.75 6,484 4-10 6.50 4,323 11-25 4.50 2,993 Source: http://thaisolarpvroadmap.org/wordpress/?p=940 • Thailand solar PV target 3000 MW by 2025 26.11.13 Seite 1919 Page
  20. 20. Other incentives Financial incentives • Tax: Preferential import tax and corporate income tax exist • Investment: has been stated but not really in operation Non-financial incentives • Update existing grid code  Circular No.32/2010/TT-BCT dated 30 July 2010 applies all power generation technologies that are connected to power distribution network  It does not consider the presence of renewable energy technologies, especially those with large fluctuation output • Develop a solar PV development plan 26.11.13 Seite 2020 Page
  21. 21. Volatility of solar PV output 26.11.13 Seite 2121 Page
  22. 22. Volatility of solar PV output The correlation is high between building load demand and solar availability. So PV provides power when needed, thus displacing peak energy and reducing demand The correlation between PV output and load demand is normally high. But localized demand reduction might be hindered by occasional clouds Source: Christy Herig, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Using Photovoltaics to Preserve California's Electricity Capacity Reserves The Solar Load Controller (SLC) reduces the load when needed by acting on end-use setting or scheduling. Because of the naturally high correlation between PV and load, the enduse inconvenience is minimal compared to the demand reduction enhancement SLC installation is applied only when the incentives such as FIT is established, probably as a condition to receive incentive. 26.11.13 Seite 2222 Page
  23. 23. Prospect for solar PV 26.11.13 Seite 2323 Page
  24. 24. Climate Change increase numbers of hot day 26.11.13 Seite 2424 Page
  25. 25. Further investment cost improvement Prospect of global Solar PV market Price and cummulative production volume Source: Global market outlook for Photovoltaics 2013-2017 PV generation cost will approach grid parity once it reaches an investment cost of 1$/Wp 26.11.13 Seite 2525 Page
  26. 26. Summary of policy options 26.11.13 Seite 2626 Page
  27. 27. Summary of policy options Option 1 – Business As Usual  No FIT  Market driven  Support Net Metering Option 2 – Promotion  Price incentive (FIT)  SLC as a condition 26.11.13 Seite 2727 Page
  28. 28. Thank you Mekong Forum | 19-21 November 2013 Nguyen Quoc Khanh (mail2knguyen@yahoo.com) 26.11.13 Seite 2828 Page

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