Volta drivers of change (CPWF GD workshop, Sept 2011)


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By Fred Kizito, et al. As part of a CPWF September 2011 workshop in Thailand regarding global drivers. We have divided driver types into five categories: 1. Demographic/Social, 2. Economic, 3. Political/Institutional/Legal, 4. Environmental/Climate change, 5. Technological/ Innovations

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Volta drivers of change (CPWF GD workshop, Sept 2011)

  1. 1. Volta Basin Drivers Global Drivers Topic Working Group  Workshop 12‐14th September,  Chiang Mai, Thailand Fred Kizito, Cofie Olufunke, Jean‐ Philippe Venot, Augustine Ayantunde,  Philippe Cecchi and Jennie Baron f.kizito@cgiar.org 1 Water for a food‐secure world
  2. 2. Presentation Outline1. Conditions in the Volta Basin2. Main basin-specific drivers3. Basin responses to drivers4. Learning processes5. Questions/clarification 2 Water for a food‐secure world
  3. 3. Conceptual illustrationMain System Drivers Determinants Current conditions  Basin Specific  Learning Processes in the Volta Basin  Responses Climate  External  Internal Land Use  Variability (outside basin) (inside basin) Change Markets Demographic  pressure Policies Migration Land  pressure Institutions Adaptive learning Energy  and introduction  demands Trans‐boundary of on‐ground Information agreements  Interventions Trans‐ boundary Technology Regional  Political‐ Integration Economic  Resources Resource  Management Above determinants operate at  Enhances coping and  various scales; local, regional and basin level adaptive mechanisms  that reduces Basin‐level stresses  and improves resilience Note: The interaction of factors in the system is non‐linear and  mainly influenced by the dominant factor at a given time  3 Water for a food‐secure world
  4. 4. Conditions of the Volta Basin1. Location and bio-physical characteristics2. Socio-economic characteristics3. Institutional arrangements4. Trans-boundary nature of its placement 4 Water for a food‐secure world
  5. 5. Location and backgroundSource: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009 5 Water for a food‐secure world
  6. 6. Biophysical Characteristics1. Climate2. Water Resources a) Surface Water Resources b) Groundwater Resources3. Soils, Vegetation and Land Use 6 Water for a food‐secure world
  7. 7. ClimateCharacterized by highspatial variability with3 major climaticzones Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009 7 Water for a food‐secure world
  8. 8. Water Resources1 2 3Surface and Groundwater resources Groundwater potential Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009 8 Water for a food‐secure world
  9. 9. Soils, Vegetation and Land Use Source: Barry et al, 2005 9 Water for a food‐secure world
  10. 10. Socio‐economic characteristics1. Per-capital income: Variable in different countries2. Population trends: Population growth rate ~ 3%3. Market access and stability remains a challenge4. Access to agricultural inputs and services 10 Water for a food‐secure world
  11. 11. Socio‐economic characteristics Access to good quality water 40% Ghana 71% Burkina Faso 66% Togo Generated from WHO and UNICEF data, 2008Gross Domestic Product  * 1000 (PPP) (Country wide) 0.88 1.63 Ghana Burkina Faso 1.26 Togo 40% 71% Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009 Generated from World Bank Data, 2005‐2010 66% 11 Water for a food‐secure world
  12. 12. Institutional arrangements1. International/trans-boundary level e.g. Volta Basin Authority2. National institutions e.g. Ministries3. Regional institutions e.g. Regional rural growth projects4. District institutions: e.g. District assemblies5. Local institutions e.g. Farmer associations 12 Water for a food‐secure world
  13. 13. Basin‐specific drivers1. Climate variability2. Demographic pressure3. Land pressure4. Increasing energy demands5. Trans-boundary issues6. Political-Economic conditions 13 Water for a food‐secure world
  14. 14. Climate variability1. Rainfall trends and patterns impact: a) Stream flow b) Seasonal soil moisture c) Agricultural productivity2. Extreme events a) Droughts (related to rainfall) b) Flooding (related to rainfall/dam releases)3. Temperature rises (associated with CC) 14 Water for a food‐secure world
  15. 15. Climate VariabilitySource: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009 15 Water for a food‐secure world
  16. 16. Temperature trends Navrongo, Northern Ghana 16 Water for a food‐secure world
  17. 17. Demographic trends 17 Water for a food‐secure world
  18. 18. Increasing Land PressureGlobal economic uncertainties Global and regional rise in food prices Opportunity to meet demands in developing countries Land acquisition deals by conglomerates More pressure on reduced land resourcesWhat are the livelihood implications of the rural poor wholose their land to the large conglomerates? 18 Water for a food‐secure world
  19. 19. Increasing Energy demands Source: Barry et al, 2005Have resulted in:1. Dam Construction: a) Hydropower generation b) Regulation of flow and c) Increased irrigation2. Flood control and energy agreements3. Loss of ecosystem services 19 Water for a food‐secure world
  20. 20. Trans‐boundary considerations 1. Dam construction- Soil degradation and flooding2. Transhumance – Land degradation3. Bushfires- Common occurrence4. Deforestation5. Ecosystem degradation e.g. deforestation, siltation and water quality issues6. Market price fluctuations 20 Water for a food‐secure world
  21. 21. Political‐Economic drivers1. Lack of political will2. Decentralization- could be hindered by insufficient resources and institutional capacity3. Political unrest, conflicts, (in)stability4. Economic conditions which mainly impact local resource users 21 Water for a food‐secure world
  22. 22. Responses to basin‐specific drivers1. Land-use changes a) Agricultural intensification b) Agricultural ‘extensification’2. Ecosystem services enhancement3. Migration in response to basin pressures4. Trans-boundary agreements5. Regional integration 22 Water for a food‐secure world
  23. 23. Learning processes:  Pathways to adapt to drivers1. On VBDC Work: Integrated Water Resources Management2. Increment in irrigated acreage3. Technological changes in conjunction with indigenous knowledge4. Government incentives5. Alternative energy sources6. On-going work on ecosystem services and resilience 23 Water for a food‐secure world
  24. 24. Questions/Clarifications 24 Water for a food‐secure world