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CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and
scaling out
Volta Basin Science and Reflection Meeting
Ouagadougou
3-6 July 2012
Outline
- V1 research question and expected outputs, timelines and linkages
- Research findings : synthesis of Stakeholder...
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out

Project aim, status and linkages
in VBDC
Objective of V1 is to develop and evidence a knowledge-based tool to assess
and map the likelihood that a given interventi...
An iterative research process in dialogue with stakeholders and potential end users
Several human capacity elements incl. ...
LINKAGES with other VBDC projects and CPWF basins
Initial plan:

Actual interactions:
-

Cross-project partners

-

V1 con...
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out

V1 (& L1) Synthesis of initial
stakeholder consultations
By V1 partners prepared...
Result: No pattern in success or failure related to complexity of
Failure
Successful
??
technology Type of technology
Rain...
Result: Best practises (‘due diligence’) was stated as having
significant impact on success/failure of AWMi
South Africa (...
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out

Do we know how much land
already under AWMi?
Prepared by Joanne Perry, Jennie Ba...
Learning from the past – following V2 review Douxchamps et al ,
V1 Presentation from 3rd IFWF 16 Nov 2011

Farmers already...
Learning from the past: map with sites of documented ground assessment of
SWC adoption

Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong ...
Learning from the past: example of data
AWMi development per region

Cereal yield (t/ha) per region

No conclusions yet
Mo...
Participatory GIS Assessment Burkina Faso and Ghana
presented by Mariam Balima (INERA) and
Mathias Fosu (CSIR-SARI)
Purpose of PGIS
•
•

To validate information from
consultation meeting
To validate the Bayesian
Model
Andes • Ganges • Lim...
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Methodology
•

Google maps of selected
towns in Burkina and
Ghana
• High Level stakeholder
consultation and mapping
• Comm...
Methodology cont..
Community level mapping

• - Take GPS

coordinates of
features, landmarks &
techs not captured on
Googl...
Technologies
identified
Treadle Pumps
Shallow wells
Dugouts
Small reservoirs
Stone and Earth bunds

Water pumps
Tree /Fiel...
Résultats préliminaires (Ghana)
1. Petits réservoirs
• Largement rependus et communément utilisé
• Disponible en saison sè...
Résultats préliminaires (Ghana) (cont)
4. Boulis, spécifiquement pour l‟abreuvement des animaux
 Problèmes:
• Faiblement ...
Résultats préliminaires (Burkina Faso)
• Croissance de l’adoption et de l’adaptation des technologies par les
bénéficiaire...
• Meilleure disponibilité de l’eau pour des usages
multiples en saison sèche: irrigation et
l’abreuvement des animaux

•

...
Similarities and différence
Simalarité
– même technologie utilisée au Ghana et au Burkina
Faso
– Les problèmes des technol...
Conclusion
• Les informations obtenues lors des PGIS confirment
celles des ateliers de consultations
• Les petits barrages...
Limites
• difficultés d’obtention de données
quantitatives
• Longueur du temps d’enquête (4 à 5 heures)
• Indisponibilité ...
Perspectives
• Utilisation des données PGIS pour valider le
modèle bayésien

Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Vo...
Merci pour votre attention

Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out

V1 Young professionals
(poster session)
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out

Targeting and scaling out tool
Eric Kemp Benedict with contributions from Annema...
Background
V1 Project
• Aim: To produce a framework and web-based “decision support”,
(or targeting and scaling out tool) that will a...
CPWF History (1):
Extrapolation Domains

Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
CPWF History (2):
Bayesian Poverty Mapping

Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Outside of CPWF:
AgWater Solutions
• Suitability map for
small reservoirs
• Data
– Biophysical
– Economic

Andes • Ganges ...
Current CPWF Work:
Nile BDC N3
• Similar goals
• Similar inputs
• analysis
Landscape-levelPerhaps less flexible (?)
• Outs...
The Targeting Problem
• We want to out-scale agricultural water
management (AWM) technologies
• We want to pick sites wher...
The Pre-targeting Problem
• Decide where conditions are promising
enough that it is worth investing in a rapid
field asses...
Conceptual Model
• There are factors that contribute to the
success or failure of AWM technologies
– Biophysical
– Social ...
Realities
• The needed data are incomplete and
imperfect
• No model can capture all the complexities of
agricultural commu...
Specifics
Structure of Bayesian Model
Evidence

Factors of success

“Pseudo-factors”*
Indicator of success

Implem.
Implementation s...
Experts Provided Guidance on
Sources of Evidence
Factor
Accessibilité à l’eau

Indicator
Nombre de retenues d’eau
Nombre d...
Experts Provided Guidance on
Sources of Evidence
Factor

Indicator

Source of data

Availability of low lands
for rice cul...
Experts Provided Guidance on
Sources of Evidence
…but we still need to collect
most of the data

Andes • Ganges • Limpopo ...
For the Mathematically Inclined
evidence

factors of
success

pseudofactors

Core model
Additional model elements

P ( s |...
For the Mathematically Inclined
factors of
success

evidence

pseudofactors

success
indicator

Core model
Additional mode...
For the Mathematically Inclined
factors of
success

evidence

pseudofactors

success
indicator

Core model
Additional mode...
Status
Status
• General model design 
• Expert consultation
– Measures and factors of success 
– Sources of evidence/data layer...
Summary Status of Tool Components





 Fully implemented
Partially implemented

 Not implemented (yet)





Andes...
Implementation factors in the
project‟s control

Color (hue): estimated likelihood of success
Intensity (value): degree of...
Selecting items on the “checklist”
changes likelihood of success
Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
Conclusions and Ways Forward
• Potential scientific outputs
– Demonstrating that social and institutional variables can be...
What Would We Like to Do?
• We are aiming at a tool that could have a life of its
own after this project. Some possibiliti...
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out

Innovation and learning
ACTIONS
Vision, mission,
inputs, activities,
outputs
Researchers

OUTCOMES
changes in
knowledge,
attitudes, skills,
action...
Partner engagements in 1st project year (2011):
Mostly national level researchers and various gvt
GVT national

3% 3%

GVT...
What have we learned about process?

FOR THE V1

We have likely missed important stakeholders in consultations (private se...
CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out

NEXT STEPS AND PRIORITIES
What V1 will do
FIRST PRIORITY:
• Learning events in Ghana and Burkina Faso (Aug-Sep 2012??)
•
Revise , and update and imp...
What we would like to do :
‘Best practise of AWMi‟ needs to be verified more:
what does it mean ? Who is doing it ?
Costs ...
THANK YOU!
MERCI!

Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
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Targeting and Scaling Out Agricultural Water Management Interventions in the Volta River Basin (2012)

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Outline
- V1 research question and expected outputs, timelines and linkages
- Research findings : synthesis of Stakeholder Consultations
- Research findings (draft): do we know how much AWMi already exist?
- Research findings (draft): Cases of AWMi in Ghana and Burkina Faso with PGIS
- Young Professionals poster presentations with draft results
- Research findings (draft): Outscaling tool developments using Bayes model, database and interface
- Findings (draft): Innovation and learning
- Next steps of V1

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Targeting and Scaling Out Agricultural Water Management Interventions in the Volta River Basin (2012)

  1. 1. CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out Volta Basin Science and Reflection Meeting Ouagadougou 3-6 July 2012
  2. 2. Outline - V1 research question and expected outputs, timelines and linkages - Research findings : synthesis of Stakeholder Consultations - Research findings (draft) : do we know how much AWMi already exist? - Research findings (draft): Cases of AWMi in Ghana and Burkina Faso with PGIS - Young Professionals poster presentations with draft results (LUNCH) - Research findings (draft): Outscaling tool developments using Bayes model, database and interface - Findings (draft): Innovation and learning - Next steps of V1 Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  3. 3. CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out Project aim, status and linkages in VBDC
  4. 4. Objective of V1 is to develop and evidence a knowledge-based tool to assess and map the likelihood that a given intervention will be successful in given locations, at the basin scale. Secondly , evaluate potential environmental impacts of outscaling at basin-scale. “The project seeks to answer the question of what AWMi can work where and why” V1 Expected Results & Contribution to Volta BDC Outscaling tool with improved capacity to target areas of particular interventions to contribute to poverty alleviation and (resilient ) development pathways in a collaborative way with boundary partners Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  5. 5. An iterative research process in dialogue with stakeholders and potential end users Several human capacity elements incl. MSc and professional training Research activity: Develop protocol Synthesise data CPWF phase 1 Research activity: Assess cases Develop model tool and databases Research activity: Improve tool and database Characterise CPWF L/V field sites Characterise potential outscaling locations 12 m Consultation activity: Protocol, identify cases External actors: local agents in ag. development, ( public, NGO) Researchers in ag-water Consultation activity: Test prototype tool External actors: Local/regional agents in ag. development, (public, NGO) Investors in ag. development Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 24 m 36 m Consultation activity: Provide learning events in out-scaling tool Demonstrate/share /distribute research outputs External actors: Local/regional/national, international agents in ag. water and rural development, public, NGOs, possibly private sector Investors National, international decision makers
  6. 6. LINKAGES with other VBDC projects and CPWF basins Initial plan: Actual interactions: - Cross-project partners - V1 contributing to V2 review - In-kind contribution of information - Ex-post domain analysis of sites (outstanding) - Topic Working Groups - Initiative by Kizito, and contribution of resources - Collaborations external to VBDC Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  7. 7. CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out V1 (& L1) Synthesis of initial stakeholder consultations By V1 partners prepared by Annemarieke de Bruin
  8. 8. Result: No pattern in success or failure related to complexity of Failure Successful ?? technology Type of technology Rainfed Soil and water BF SA - BF conservation/DRS/CES Planting pits BF-Zim Trench technology Conservation agriculture SA SA SA SA Bunding Contour bunds/ridges/ploughing Gha Gha Zim Gha-Zim Sa-Zim Sa-Gha-BF Gha SA- Gha-BF Gha SA Gha Gha Zim Tied ridges Cover crop Tree planting Bunding Mulching Shallow groundwater Shallow wells Waste water re-use Treadle pump Water pumps (small scale irrigation) Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation Punched bag Micro irrigation Supplemental irrigation (rice) Gha SA-Zim Zim SA Full irrigation Small dams/reservoirs Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Large scale irrigation Zim BF BF Gha Gha SA-Zim Zim SA-Zim SA-Zim Zim BF-Zim Zim Gha BF Roof Rainwater Harvesting Ferro-cement tanks Earth dams Underground level dams BF Zim SA SA - Gha BF BF BF-Zim SA SA SA
  9. 9. Result: Best practises (‘due diligence’) was stated as having significant impact on success/failure of AWMi South Africa (n=11) Factor category Success % Failure % Zimbabwe (n=13) Success % Ghana (n=16) Failure % Success % Burkina Faso (n=6) Failure % Success % Failure % Natural 9 9 27 31 24 10 25 16 Human 26 13 25 28 18 21 14 8 Social 30 6 7 3 3 6 11 24 Physical 4 17 11 14 18 25 11 28 Financial 4 17 9 6 9 15 7 12 26 38 20 19 27 23 32 12 Other Definition of a success • Direct benefit of well-being Other= ‘BEST PRACTISE IN IMPLEMENTATION’ •Community owns initiative • Substantial practise beyond >2 years intervention to enduser •Early engagement with stakeholders •Continuous assistance/backstopping, Appropriate implementation •Direct benefit, Clear demand •Clear objective Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta •Appropriate design of technology
  10. 10. CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out Do we know how much land already under AWMi? Prepared by Joanne Perry, Jennie Barron based on review by Douxchamps et al,
  11. 11. Learning from the past – following V2 review Douxchamps et al , V1 Presentation from 3rd IFWF 16 Nov 2011 Farmers already manage rain and have AWMi, but to what extent and to what impact? • We have identified 3 major streams of technology adoption and adaptation SWC, small reservoirs, irrigation with small electric/diesel pumps What impact have these changes? • Look at high level impacts addressing desired benefits (yield food security, income), undesired externalities on environment (water resources ,flows appropriation, ES loss) Can we measure these benefits and impacts at various scales? Can we estimate extent of AWMi in use? Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  12. 12. Learning from the past: map with sites of documented ground assessment of SWC adoption Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  13. 13. Learning from the past: example of data AWMi development per region Cereal yield (t/ha) per region No conclusions yet More data needed Verification? (we don’t agree…..) Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  14. 14. Participatory GIS Assessment Burkina Faso and Ghana presented by Mariam Balima (INERA) and Mathias Fosu (CSIR-SARI)
  15. 15. Purpose of PGIS • • To validate information from consultation meeting To validate the Bayesian Model Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  16. 16. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  17. 17. Methodology • Google maps of selected towns in Burkina and Ghana • High Level stakeholder consultation and mapping • Community level consultation & mapping • - identification of prominent features, landmarks & techs. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  18. 18. Methodology cont.. Community level mapping • - Take GPS coordinates of features, landmarks & techs not captured on Google map • - Georeferencing of features, landmarks and technologies. Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  19. 19. Technologies identified Treadle Pumps Shallow wells Dugouts Small reservoirs Stone and Earth bunds Water pumps Tree /Field crop integration GHANA BURKINA FASO + + + + + + - Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta + + + + + + +
  20. 20. Résultats préliminaires (Ghana) 1. Petits réservoirs • Largement rependus et communément utilisé • Disponible en saison sèche • Réduction de l‟exode rurale  Problème: maintenance des infrastructures 2. Puits de bas-fond utilisable en saison pluvieuse mais tarissent pendant la saison sèche 3. Pompage nécessite une source d‟eau pérenne Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  21. 21. Résultats préliminaires (Ghana) (cont) 4. Boulis, spécifiquement pour l‟abreuvement des animaux  Problèmes: • Faiblement construits • N‟est pas adapte pour l‟agriculture de contre-saison • Généralement de petite taille et par conséquent l‟eau tarit rapidement • Perte de l‟eau par infiltration • Ensablement des ouvrages 5. Digues en terre et en pierre Communément utilisé en zones dotées en pierres avec une pente > 20% Observations générales Au delà des pompages, toutes les techniques identifiées sont utilisées par les hommes et aussi bien les femme Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  22. 22. Résultats préliminaires (Burkina Faso) • Croissance de l’adoption et de l’adaptation des technologies par les bénéficiaires • Accès des ouvrages à toutes les couches sociales • Amélioration du niveau de vie des communautés (sécurité alimentaire, éducation, santé) • Diversification des revenus (réduction de la pauvreté) • Participation à la gestion durable des infrastructures • Renforcement des capacités des producteurs en terme d’organisation et d’engagement • Contribution à la réduction de l’exode rurale • Amélioration des facteurs de productions Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  23. 23. • Meilleure disponibilité de l’eau pour des usages multiples en saison sèche: irrigation et l’abreuvement des animaux • Meilleure rétention d’eau pour l’agriculture pluviale Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  24. 24. Similarities and différence Simalarité – même technologie utilisée au Ghana et au Burkina Faso – Les problèmes des technologies sont identiques (exemple la gestion et l’utilisation des petits réservoirs sont identiques) Différence - 7 technologies (Burkina) et 6 (Ghana) Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  25. 25. Conclusion • Les informations obtenues lors des PGIS confirment celles des ateliers de consultations • Les petits barrages sont plus importants dans la gestion de l’eau • Toutes les technologies sont accessibles de façon égale aux hommes et aux femmes à l’exception des motopompes • Les technologies ont contribué à la réduction de l’exode rurale • Les technologies ont contribué à l’augmentation des productions et a l’amelioration du niveau de vie des beneficiaires Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  26. 26. Limites • difficultés d’obtention de données quantitatives • Longueur du temps d’enquête (4 à 5 heures) • Indisponibilité d’image récente et de cartes topographiques aux échelles adaptées (1/50 000 eme) Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  27. 27. Perspectives • Utilisation des données PGIS pour valider le modèle bayésien Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  28. 28. Merci pour votre attention Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  29. 29. CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out V1 Young professionals (poster session)
  30. 30. CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out Targeting and scaling out tool Eric Kemp Benedict with contributions from Annemariekede Bruin, Frank Annor, Douglas Wang
  31. 31. Background
  32. 32. V1 Project • Aim: To produce a framework and web-based “decision support”, (or targeting and scaling out tool) that will assist in identifying sites where the introduction of AWM interventions for smallholder farming systems are likely to be successful. • Related projects – – – – Extrapolation domains Bayesian poverty mapping AgWater Solutions suitability maps Nile Basin outscaling tool • The novelty of this approach – Including social and institutional factors – Eliciting information from experts on the ground – Open-source infrastructure Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  33. 33. CPWF History (1): Extrapolation Domains Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  34. 34. CPWF History (2): Bayesian Poverty Mapping Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  35. 35. Outside of CPWF: AgWater Solutions • Suitability map for small reservoirs • Data – Biophysical – Economic Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  36. 36. Current CPWF Work: Nile BDC N3 • Similar goals • Similar inputs • analysis Landscape-levelPerhaps less flexible (?) • Outscaling is important, and the world needs more than one method Combining expert insights and data Including social and institutional data Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  37. 37. The Targeting Problem • We want to out-scale agricultural water management (AWM) technologies • We want to pick sites where the chances of success are relatively good • A good way to decide is through rapid assessment in the field at prospective sites • But where to do the rapid assessments? Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  38. 38. The Pre-targeting Problem • Decide where conditions are promising enough that it is worth investing in a rapid field assessment • Only use existing and easily accessible data that is available over a large part of the basin • Other considerations: – Make it affordable – Build on accumulated experience and knowledge Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  39. 39. Conceptual Model • There are factors that contribute to the success or failure of AWM technologies – Biophysical – Social and institutional – Technological – Implementation-specific • The factors usually cannot be observed directly, but there is indirect evidence that that they are present or absent Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  40. 40. Realities • The needed data are incomplete and imperfect • No model can capture all the complexities of agricultural communities and their environments • There will be continued learning and therefore a need to update the model Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  41. 41. Specifics
  42. 42. Structure of Bayesian Model Evidence Factors of success “Pseudo-factors”* Indicator of success Implem. Implementation score Implementation factors Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta * Reduce the number of model parameters
  43. 43. Experts Provided Guidance on Sources of Evidence Factor Accessibilité à l’eau Indicator Nombre de retenues d’eau Nombre de points d’eau Existance de cours d’eau Effectif du cheptel local Encadrement des producteurs Nombre de structures d’encadrement Nombre de personnel d’encadrement Nombre de centres de formation Taux d’alphabetisation Types/natures de formations Disponibilité de main d’oeuvre Effectif de population Densité de population Repartition par classe d’age et par sexe Migration de population proximité d’un marché de consommationaux centres urbains Distance Population locale Etats des routes Pouvoir d’achat des populations Circuit de commercialisation disponibilité de fumure organique Types d’elevage Effectif du cheptel Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Nombre de fosses fumieres Production cerealiere (quantité) Source DR Agric, INERA, IGB, AMB, VAREK, PAGIRE DR Agric, INERA, IGB, AMB, VAREK, PAGIRE DR Agric, INERA, IGB, AMB, VAREK, PAGIRE DR-elevage, INSD Etat, ONG, OP Etat, ONG, OP Etat, ONG, OP, DR-MEBA MEBA OP, ONG, Etat INSD, Commune INSD, Commune INSD, Commune INSD, Communes village, commune DG-route Plan, MEF Chambre de commerce, ONG, OP DR-elevage, ONG, OP DR-elevage, ONG, OP ONG, OP DR-agric
  44. 44. Experts Provided Guidance on Sources of Evidence Factor Indicator Source of data Availability of low lands for rice cultivation in northern region Rice valleys GIDA, MoFA, CSIR-SARI Provision of technology Trained farmers are CSIR-SARI & MoFA available in all beneficiary communities, Contour bunds constructed are still being used. Provision of credit (Agro Seeds ( ie. TOX 3107) are Inputs) still available. CSIR-SARI, Marketing arrangements made NASIA Rice company Buyers such as NASI and Culture and interest of the people in rice Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta cultivation Previous exposure to Trained farmers are still GIDA, MoFA, CSIR-SARI
  45. 45. Experts Provided Guidance on Sources of Evidence …but we still need to collect most of the data Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  46. 46. For the Mathematically Inclined evidence factors of success pseudofactors Core model Additional model elements P ( s | { e j }) Probability of success given observations (evidence) Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta ? success indicator
  47. 47. For the Mathematically Inclined factors of success evidence pseudofactors success indicator Core model Additional model elements P ( s | { e j }) P ( s | { f i }) P ({ f i } | { e j }) { fi } Probability of Probability of success given factor of success factors of given evidence success Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  48. 48. For the Mathematically Inclined factors of success evidence pseudofactors success indicator Core model Additional model elements n P ( s | { e j }) A ( s | { f i }) { f i }{ f i } P( f i | f i ) P ({ f i } | { e j }) i 1 A “noisy-and” «et-bruyant» relationship: Factor of success 1 and factor of success 2 and factor of success 3 … must be present, but we don‟t have perfect information Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  49. 49. Status
  50. 50. Status • General model design  • Expert consultation – Measures and factors of success  – Sources of evidence/data layers  – Detailed model structure  • Tool development – Components  (see next slide) – User feedback and input  Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Fully implemented Partially implemented Not implemented (yet)  These should have been further along. Otherwise, we are reasonably on track.
  51. 51. Summary Status of Tool Components     Fully implemented Partially implemented   Not implemented (yet)   Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta 
  52. 52. Implementation factors in the project‟s control Color (hue): estimated likelihood of success Intensity (value): degree of confidence Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  53. 53. Selecting items on the “checklist” changes likelihood of success Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  54. 54. Conclusions and Ways Forward • Potential scientific outputs – Demonstrating that social and institutional variables can be meaningfully included in a targeting tool – Conceptual framework of evidence  factors of success  indicator of success as a way of framing the targeting problem – Novel elicitation techniques • Potential practical outputs – Better-informed decisions of where in a basin to direct resources – Clarity on data needs for improved decision-making – An open-source tool with generically useful source code for spatial Bayesian models • Next steps during this project – – – – Build Bayesian models using expert elicitation Improve on tool interface through consultation Continue developing data base Validation with PGIS and case studies Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  55. 55. What Would We Like to Do? • We are aiming at a tool that could have a life of its own after this project. Some possibilities to help make this happen: – Release the code in an open-source repository (GitHub, SourceForge) – Seek funding for further data collection, elaboration, dissemination, and hosting – Identify a potential long-term home for the web-based tool and code Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  56. 56. CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out Innovation and learning
  57. 57. ACTIONS Vision, mission, inputs, activities, outputs Researchers OUTCOMES changes in knowledge, attitudes, skills, actions) CP researchers VBDC researchers Wider researcher community Project Team SEI INERA SARI KNUST Univ Ouaga Unions/ Associations NGOs (DVT agents) NGO networks National/ Provincial Government Agric Dept. Extension services Planning V5 Project Regional Government Project Team Beneficiaries Boundary Partners Other stakeholders IMPACTS changes in conditions, well-being CAADP (NEPAD) VBA .. Project sphere of influence Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta Project sphere of concern Communities
  58. 58. Partner engagements in 1st project year (2011): Mostly national level researchers and various gvt GVT national 3% 3% GVT national Devt agents/implementors (local Gvt, Ngos) 14% farmers other local stakeholders / private formal-informal 27% 55% 9% 3% 3% NARS regional research 12% intl research Devt agents/implementors (local Gvt, Ngos) farmers other local stakeholders / private formal-informal private parastatsal NARS regional research 71% intl research regional policy Burkina Faso international policy Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta regional policy Ghana international policy
  59. 59. What have we learned about process? FOR THE V1 We have likely missed important stakeholders in consultations (private sector actors), and we have not yet tried to correct for these potential limitations, and we recognise the challenges „Adaptive research‟ can be rewarding, but also time-consuming and we underestimated the time required to fully engage in this as team lead and as team partners Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  60. 60. CPWF Volta V1: Targeting and scaling out NEXT STEPS AND PRIORITIES
  61. 61. What V1 will do FIRST PRIORITY: • Learning events in Ghana and Burkina Faso (Aug-Sep 2012??) • Revise , and update and improve tool • Learning events In Ghana and Burkina Faso (Feb-Mar 2012?) • • • • • • • • NEXT PRIORITY Synthesise PGIS across cases and sites : writeshop? Complement with AWMi Rainfed case in BF? Carry out ex-post domain analysis for VBDC projects Finalise review on extent of AWMi in adoption over time Model potential hydrological impacts at basin scale Contribute to VBDC cross-project on story lines and scenario Develop documentations and outreach products Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  62. 62. What we would like to do : ‘Best practise of AWMi‟ needs to be verified more: what does it mean ? Who is doing it ? Costs and impacts? Develop a framework for evidence  factors of success  indicator of success Meaningful spatial information layers of social and institutional factors: review being done for Limpopo L1 also to benefit V1(Improve the tool accordingly Find a permanent ‘home’ for tool and associated data Compare findings of tool application across L1 and V1 Test tool fro v2, V3, V4 AWMi Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta
  63. 63. THANK YOU! MERCI! Andes • Ganges • Limpopo • Mekong • Nile • Volta

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