Sustainable intensification of small-
scale agriculture in the upper Blue
Nile Basin:
Multi-criteria optimization of rainw...
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Introduction
A broad consensus on the importance of
rainwater m...
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
The research question
What are the consequences of
alternative ...
How is the analysis made?
A decision support
tool with multi-
criteria optimization
Sustainability
Interactions
(understan...
What is evaluated?
Quantitative characterization of Meja micro-
watershed in the Upper Blue Nile
70 sample plots in
the HRU (upper,
middle, l...
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Results (business as usual scenario)
Optimization made possible...
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Agriculture will remain major source of farm
income and employm...
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Next activities
How will a change in land use and
resource mana...
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Challenges
• Lack of crop-specific sediment and run off
data
• ...
Sustainable intensification of small-scale agriculture in the upper Blue Nile Basin: Multi-criteria optimization of rainwa...
Sustainable intensification of small-scale agriculture in the upper Blue Nile Basin: Multi-criteria optimization of rainwa...
Sustainable intensification of small-scale agriculture in the upper Blue Nile Basin: Multi-criteria optimization of rainwa...
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Sustainable intensification of small-scale agriculture in the upper Blue Nile Basin: Multi-criteria optimization of rainwater management strategies

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Presented by Kindie Getnet at the Nile Basin Development Challenge (NBDC) Science Workshop–2013, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9 – 10 July 2013

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Sustainable intensification of small-scale agriculture in the upper Blue Nile Basin: Multi-criteria optimization of rainwater management strategies

  1. 1. Sustainable intensification of small- scale agriculture in the upper Blue Nile Basin: Multi-criteria optimization of rainwater management strategies Kindie Getnet International Water Management Institute (IWMI), East Africa & Nile Basin Office, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Nile Basin Development Challenge (NBDC) Science Workshop Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9–10 July 2013
  2. 2. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world Introduction A broad consensus on the importance of rainwater management (RWM) to improve system productivity and livelihood resilience in rainfed agriculture Choosing the appropriate RWM strategy can be contentious The need for ex-ante analysis and evaluation to make informed decisions
  3. 3. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world The research question What are the consequences of alternative RWM strategies, compared to the business as usual scenario? Evaluation criteria (indicators)? •Net farm income (economic benefit) •Employment opportunities (social benefit) •Runoff and sediment (environmental
  4. 4. How is the analysis made? A decision support tool with multi- criteria optimization Sustainability Interactions (understanding spatial and temporal trade-offs and synergies) ECOSAUT for economic, social, and environmental Basic Data Crop Crop Crop 1 9 17 2 10 18 Area(Ha) 3 11 19 7.9 4 12 Pastures 1 8.8 5 13 Pastures 2 3.9 6 14 Pastures 3 20.7 7 15 Forest1 8 16 Forest2 Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 3 1 crop 1 crop 8 crop 14 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1 2 crop 2 crop 9 crop 15 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1 3 crop 3 crop 10 crop 16 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1 4 crop 4 crop 11 crop 17 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1 5 crop 5 crop 12 crop 18 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1 6 crop 3 crop 13 crop 19 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1 7 crop 6 crop 8 crop 14 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1 8 crop 2 crop 9 crop 15 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1 9 crop 7 crop 9 crop 16 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1 10 crop 1 crop 12 crop 17 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1 (enter thenameof thecrop orland useof interest , e.g., potato, cereal, quinoa, tree,grass,alfalfa, etc) Description Description Zone1 Description BWPPeTFBe WBeB STBeWBFPPe WBBePT WTBeB NMTBPW Location Available Land Crops inRotation WBPBeT WBT BTBeWP BWTP WTBeSPeP BPeTFPWBe WBeBT Grazing TBBeWP TBPS Eucalyptus Location in watershed -> BPTPeWBe NMSBFTPBe Zone2 Total Zone3 WBTBeP WNMBeT T1T4 (degraded forest/shrubland) Rotation Trees Forages
  5. 5. What is evaluated?
  6. 6. Quantitative characterization of Meja micro- watershed in the Upper Blue Nile 70 sample plots in the HRU (upper, middle, lower zone) Geo-referenced spatial and temporal data on: Production (crop, livestock, forest, pasture) Employment (labor use) Runoff and sediment • ECOSAUT populated and preliminary
  7. 7. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world Results (business as usual scenario) Optimization made possible over the entire HRU considered (20ha) Model results mimic reality Baseline scenario generates a net farm income of US$404,790 over 10 years (2011-2021)
  8. 8. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world Agriculture will remain major source of farm income and employment Farm income positively trending but not significantly drifting • System productivity stagnant • Given rapid population growth, declining per capita farm income? • Poverty reduction role of agriculture not dependable? Negative externalities associated with farm income growth (soil erosion) • Trade-off between farm income growth and land resource • Is the farming system sustainable?
  9. 9. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world Next activities How will a change in land use and resource management practices change farm income, poverty, and soil erosion? – Develop land use and resource management scenarios – Assess consequences at HRU scale – Extrapolate basin-wide impact
  10. 10. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world Challenges • Lack of crop-specific sediment and run off data • Need for concretized and quantified scenarios and strategies • How to extrapolate impacts to a basin scale

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