Eau Et Crise Alimentaire Paris 18 Nov 09[1]


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Eau Et Crise Alimentaire Paris 18 Nov 09[1]

  1. 1. Crise de l’eau et crise alimentaire : <br />pouvons-nous les surmonter ?<br />Alain Vidal<br />CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food<br />AgroParisTech, semaine ATHENS<br />UV Gérer l’eau du local au global<br />20 novembre 2008<br />
  2. 2. Content<br />What is causing the world’s food crisis?<br />Do we also have a water crisis? How is it related to the food crisis?<br />Can we overcome the crisis?<br />2<br />
  3. 3. Food crisis: is it new?<br />Kenya 1998-2000 drought: $2.4 billion losses<br />Remember! Every 5 seconds,one child younger than 10 dies of hunger <br />
  4. 4. Food crisis: the hunger countdown?<br />3 billion do not eat their fill<br />2 billion suffer from malnutrition<br />1 billion suffer from hunger <br />75% of them are rural poor<br />Alleviating hunger means reducing rural poverty<br />Reducing rural poverty<br />Increase farmers income and resilience<br />And NOT transform the rural poor into urban poor<br />
  5. 5. Water, food and GDP<br /> Many poor countries depend on food production as the basis of GDP (eg Sub-Saharan Africa)…<br /> … and agriculture growth is strongly related to water (eg rainfall in Ethiopia)<br />5<br />
  6. 6. What is causing the world food crisis?<br />Long-term trends…<br />Increasing demand - Income growth and dietary change, climate change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization<br />Decreasing supply - Slow growing supply, low stocks, supply shocks<br />…plus new short-term effects exacerbating long-term trends<br />Speculation and biofuel production have disproportionately affected the poor<br />Uncertainties due to economic instability<br />
  7. 7. Rapid variations in world food prices<br />What’s next?<br />
  8. 8. Food consumption changes in emerging countries<br />Less grain, more meat and dairy products<br />
  9. 9. Meat <br />China<br />USA<br />India<br />USA<br />India<br />Milk <br />China<br />More meat in China, more milk in India<br />
  10. 10. Food & feed demand will double The main driver<br />How much more cereal will we have to grow to meet growing demand?<br />While world population will increase by 50%...<br />… changes in diets will result in almost doubling the food demand!<br />10<br />
  11. 11. Long-term effect of climate change<br />Eg rainfall change from 1990 to 2070-2100<br />Decrease of main crops production by 2050 !<br />Maize 16%<br />Rice 21%<br />Wheat 42%<br />
  12. 12. Slow growing supply vs. low stocks <br />Cereal stocks<br />from 4 months down to 2.5 months of world consumption<br />equivalent to 1 year of China consumption (40% being owned by China)<br />
  13. 13. Biofuels: a significant short-term effect<br />Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios compared with baseline levels (%)<br />“A short-term threat for food security, a long-term opportunity for agricultural and rural development” (FAO State of Food and Agriculture, 2008)<br />
  14. 14. What have we learnt from the 2008 crisis?<br />Food commodities is another casino where people gamble<br />In face of the financial crisis, speculators and hedge funds have turned towards food commodities<br />Food prices have risen dramatically and first affected the poor : in 2008-09, the number of undernourished raised from 920 to 1000 million (FAO)<br />Consequences of the economic and financial crisis<br />Temporarily slowed down the food demand increase, resulting in lower food prices – but too low for farmers<br />Decreased incomes and salaries and increased smallholders’ debt, resulting in decreased investment in agriculture<br />What does the future of world food prices look like?<br />
  15. 15. Do we also have a water crisis? <br />15<br />
  16. 16. The driving forces?<br />Growing population<br />Dietary change<br />Urbanization<br />Biofuel production<br />Need for environmental water <br />Climate change <br />… similar to the food crisis drivers!<br />
  17. 17. The Water Crisis in context<br />2-5LDaily<br />20-500LDaily<br />500-3000L<br />Per Kg<br /> Vegetarian diet uses 2000 L/day - OR - Grainfed meat diet 5000 L/day <br />
  18. 18. Water consumption is increasing<br />
  19. 19. Dietary water demand grows with GDP<br />Lundqvist 2008<br />GDP US$/cap/yr<br />
  20. 20. La demande continue à augmenter<br />
  21. 21. 2003<br />2030<br />2000<br />4000<br />6000<br />8000<br />Eau, territoire et biocarburants d’ici 2030<br />Harvested area<br />2003<br />irrigated<br />rain fed<br />biofuels<br />2030<br />irrigated<br />rain fed<br />400<br />800<br />1200<br />1600<br />Million ha<br />Crop water consumption<br />biofuels<br />irrigation<br />directly from rain<br />irrigation<br />directly from rain<br />km3<br />
  22. 22. The water productivity challenge <br /> Do we have enough water resources to grow enough food and meet future demand for biofuels?<br />No… with today’s practices, doubling food production in 2050 would require to almost double agricultural water use<br /> …Unless we change the way we think and act on water issues<br /> A simple and ideal scenario: if we doubled the amount of food produced per m3 of water, we would be safe<br />
  23. 23. Change our thinking about water and agriculture<br />Socially<br />Complicated<br />Build relationships, create common ground<br />Zone of Complexity<br />Agreement<br />Technically Complicated<br />Experiment, coordinate expertise<br />Simple<br />Plan, control<br />Close to<br />Far from<br />Certainty<br />Close to<br /><ul><li>Formulaic solutions have limited applicability
  24. 24. Past success is no guarantee of future success
  25. 25. Expertise can help but is not sufficient; relationships are key
  26. 26. Uncertainty of outcome remains</li></ul>Far from<br />Source: Patton, 2007<br />
  27. 27. Increase the productivity of water to potential<br />Higher productivity means better income, better buffer against income fluctuations due to climate variability <br />Water is often a constraint in productivity<br />Integration of livestock and fisheries to derive more value per unit of water<br />Potential = 1-2 kg/m3<br />
  28. 28. Water productivity and resource management<br />Before<br />After<br />Growth rate of Bac Lieu province (2004 – 2006) 15.7%/yr<br />Rice-shrimp profits: ca. USD 2150/ha/year<br />
  29. 29. 26<br />
  30. 30. Increasing water productivity requires external factors<br />Growth of agricultural GDP is 4 times more effective to increase people&apos;s income (WDR 2007), but…<br />…poverty also influences the capacity to increase crop productivity<br />
  31. 31. Changer notre mode de pensée sur l’eau et l’agriculture ?<br /> Répondre aux besoins spécifiques des différentes catégories de producteurs<br />Source: FAO<br />
  32. 32. The resilience challenge<br /> Not only should water productivity be increased…<br /> …but communities and ecosystems producing food should be able to cope with global changes (climate, economy, demography, migrations…) , ie<br /> becomemore resilient (persistent, adaptable, transformable) <br /> MUS<br />MUS resilience zone<br />Productivity<br />Single uses<br />unstable zone<br />Green water<br />Blue water<br />
  33. 33. Resilience of dry rainfed systems<br /> Green water is the source of runoff and percolation of blue water <br /> Ways to improve access to green water<br />In-field soil water conservation techniques that increase the rate of infiltration and percolation, e.g. mulching <br />Micro‐catchment or runoff farming and supplementary irrigation to capture overland flow from areas adjacent to fieldsHousehold crop income raised from US$200 to 600 per year<br />
  34. 34. Resilience from wetlands: Nam Songkhram<br />“paa boong paa thaam”<br />Highly productive but contested waterscape<br />Floods and droughts always presented as main obstacles to development, whereas flood pulse is main driver of wetland productivity<br />Threat of ‘Water Grid’ and other mega‐projects hangs over future of wetlands<br />But household income US$1100/y<br />
  35. 35. Resilience from Multiple Use water Systems<br /> Multiple use water systems are an effective way to fight poverty by improving access to agricultural water<br />Experience shows that farmers use/re-use multiple (up to 9!) sources of water <br />
  36. 36. From domestic water to multiple-use<br />Homestead-scale multiple-use gives high resilience against natural- and human-made volatility<br />Especially for the poor and for women generates ‘more MDG per drop’<br />Multiple-use water ladder, with household water-derived income ranging from US$40 to 300/year<br />Costs for multiple-use supplies for homestead-based production typically repaid within 3 years, from the income gained, therefore cross-subsidized domestic uses<br />
  37. 37. Multiple water uses, techniques and sources, together with resulting community organization do increase resilience<br /> Neglecting the natural and immemorial continuity between water natural and man-made systems creates unaffordable disruptive changes <br />Multiple use/sources resilience<br />Productivity<br />Disruptive<br />Change<br />Rainfed humid<br />Single uses<br />unstable zone<br />Rainfed dry<br />Green water<br />Blue water<br />How to address the resilience challenge?<br />
  38. 38. Spiritual Transformation<br />Inhumanity inflicted to another destroys humanity in myself<br />Emmanuel Kant, philosopher<br />Science is a differential equation, religion is a boundary condition<br />Alan Turing, founder of computer science<br />
  39. 39. Reintroducing a « triangulation »<br />Universal law and inner peace <br />« Otherness »<br />Man alone with his pulsions<br />
  40. 40. Changes at individual level<br />Care for individual water footprint<br />
  41. 41. Political changes at local level<br />Respect and learn from sacred waterscapes<br />Paa Boong Paa Thaam (Thailand)<br /> Tamboloma sacred lake in the Andean Paramo (Ecuador) <br /> Water Temples (Bali)<br />
  42. 42. Political changes at local level<br />In Balinese subaks, water sharing coordinated by temples has increased collective output income<br />More gain from sharing than from protecting individual interests (spiritual &gt; economic)<br />
  43. 43. Political changes at global level<br />High level declarations from spiritual leaders do have impact<br />Eg Encyclical Letter Caritas in Veritate<br /> “a network of economic institutions capable of guaranteeing regular access to sufficient food and water for nutritional needs, and also capable of addressing the primary needs and necessities ensuing from genuine food crises, whether due to natural causes or political irresponsibility, nationally and internationally” (§27)<br />How do we exploit the unique moment of this Forum?<br />
  44. 44. Thank you<br />Alain Vidal, CPWF Directora.vidal@cgiar.org<br />www.waterandfood.org<br />www.slideshare.com/CPWF<br />
  45. 45. References and links<br />Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF)<br />www.waterandfood.org<br />The World Bank<br />www.worldbank.org<br />World Development Report 2007 on Agriculture<br />Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)<br />www.fao.org<br />International Water Management Institute (IWMI)<br />www.iwmi.org<br />Comprehensive Assessment on Water and Agriculture<br />International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)<br />www.ifpri.org<br />42<br />
  46. 46. Photo Credits<br />Challenge Program on Water and Food<br />The World Bank<br />International Water Management Institute<br />International Livestock Research Institute<br />International Development Enterprises<br />Reuters<br />43<br />